HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

PYTH

PYTH-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-pyth · fresh · feed 1s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▲ 2.65%
realized vol (ann.)
195.20%
max drawdown
2.99%
sharpe
-1.32
ulcer index
1.62%
RMS drawdown
pain index
1.48%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.05%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-159.42
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
2.82%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
1.00
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-91.19
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.00
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
2.65%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.95%
signalNEUTRALconfidence 33%
  • 24h change +2.65%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 10.6bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-pyth/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH1.0s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.039
24h Δ · live
2.65%
24h vol · live
$0.9M
PYTH · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.0385 · σ=0.0005 · range [0.0377, 0.0398] · R²=0.032▲ RISING +2.72%σ NORMAL 1.28%LAST 0.03880.03980.03930.03880.03830.0377μ = 0.0385max 0.0398min 0.0377dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.03μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.04
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.1%Short fee 51.9%SHORT FEE51.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001250% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=24,390,493 · μ=975619.7 · σ=784706.5 · CV=0.80BURSTYcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=160680,3341,360,6682,041,0022,721,336μ = 9756202,721,33650%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 2721336 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
1.0s
$mark $
$0.0388
$mid $
$0.0388
◉prev-day close
$0.0378
Δ24h Δ %
+2.651%
$24h vol $
$941.39k
◐open interest $
$1.06M
%funding (1h)
0.001250%
%funding (yr)
+10.95%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.0385 · σ=0.0005 · range [0.0377, 0.0398] · R²=0.032▲ RISING +2.72%σ NORMAL 1.28%LAST 0.03880.03980.03930.03880.03830.0377μ = 0.0385max 0.0398min 0.0377dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.03μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.0388 · 24h 2.65% · range $[0.0377, 0.0398]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 13 · down 12 (52% up) · range [0.0376, 0.0400] · σ=0.0005 · CV=0.01 · bodyµ=38%BULLISH +2.65%CLOSE 0.0388 vs OPEN 0.0378 (+2.65%)&#9650; CLOSE 0.03880.04000.03940.03880.03820.0376μ close = 0.0385O0.038 H0.038 L0.038 C0.038 (-0.07%)O0.038 H0.038 L0.038 C0.038 (-0.07%)O0.038 H0.039 L0.038 C0.039 (+2.80%)O0.038 H0.039 L0.038 C0.039 (+2.80%)O0.039 H0.039 L0.038 C0.038 (-1.08%)O0.039 H0.039 L0.038 C0.038 (-1.08%)O0.038 H0.039 L0.038 C0.039 (+1.10%)O0.038 H0.039 L0.038 C0.039 (+1.10%)O0.039 H0.040 L0.039 C0.040 (+2.92%)O0.039 H0.040 L0.039 C0.040 (+2.92%)-3.8%O0.040 H0.040 L0.038 C0.038 (-3.77%)O0.040 H0.040 L0.038 C0.038 (-3.77%)O0.038 H0.039 L0.038 C0.038 (-0.05%)O0.038 H0.039 L0.038 C0.038 (-0.05%)O0.038 H0.039 L0.038 C0.038 (-0.04%)O0.038 H0.039 L0.038 C0.038 (-0.04%)O0.038 H0.039 L0.038 C0.038 (+0.04%)O0.038 H0.039 L0.038 C0.038 (+0.04%)O0.038 H0.038 L0.038 C0.038 (-0.79%)O0.038 H0.038 L0.038 C0.038 (-0.79%)O0.038 H0.038 L0.038 C0.038 (+0.01%)O0.038 H0.038 L0.038 C0.038 (+0.01%)O0.038 H0.038 L0.038 C0.038 (-0.56%)O0.038 H0.038 L0.038 C0.038 (-0.56%)O0.038 H0.038 L0.038 C0.038 (+0.41%)O0.038 H0.038 L0.038 C0.038 (+0.41%)O0.038 H0.038 L0.038 C0.038 (-0.76%)O0.038 H0.038 L0.038 C0.038 (-0.76%)O0.038 H0.038 L0.038 C0.038 (+0.19%)O0.038 H0.038 L0.038 C0.038 (+0.19%)O0.038 H0.038 L0.038 C0.038 (+0.16%)O0.038 H0.038 L0.038 C0.038 (+0.16%)O0.038 H0.040 L0.038 C0.038 (+1.55%)O0.038 H0.040 L0.038 C0.038 (+1.55%)O0.039 H0.039 L0.038 C0.038 (-0.49%)O0.039 H0.039 L0.038 C0.038 (-0.49%)O0.038 H0.039 L0.038 C0.039 (+2.26%)O0.038 H0.039 L0.038 C0.039 (+2.26%)O0.039 H0.039 L0.038 C0.039 (-1.24%)O0.039 H0.039 L0.038 C0.039 (-1.24%)O0.039 H0.039 L0.039 C0.039 (+0.41%)O0.039 H0.039 L0.039 C0.039 (+0.41%)O0.039 H0.039 L0.039 C0.039 (-0.59%)O0.039 H0.039 L0.039 C0.039 (-0.59%)O0.039 H0.039 L0.038 C0.039 (+0.15%)O0.039 H0.039 L0.038 C0.039 (+0.15%)O0.039 H0.039 L0.039 C0.039 (-0.14%)O0.039 H0.039 L0.039 C0.039 (-0.14%)O0.039 H0.039 L0.039 C0.039 (+0.00%)O0.039 H0.039 L0.039 C0.039 (+0.00%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=24,390,493 · μ=975619.7 · σ=784706.5 · CV=0.80BURSTYcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=160680,3341,360,6682,041,0022,721,336μ = 975620336,337 · 12.4% peak336,337 · 12.4% peak2,465,108 · 90.6% peak2,465,108 · 90.6% peak519,688 · 19.1% peak519,688 · 19.1% peak683,176 · 25.1% peak683,176 · 25.1% peak2,721,3362,721,336 · 100.0% peak2,721,336 · 100.0% peak1,272,855 · 46.8% peak1,272,855 · 46.8% peak746,494 · 27.4% peak746,494 · 27.4% peak317,312 · 11.7% peak317,312 · 11.7% peak482,740 · 17.7% peak482,740 · 17.7% peak480,737 · 17.7% peak480,737 · 17.7% peak459,299 · 16.9% peak459,299 · 16.9% peak467,118 · 17.2% peak467,118 · 17.2% peak429,259 · 15.8% peak429,259 · 15.8% peak362,119 · 13.3% peak362,119 · 13.3% peak398,868 · 14.7% peak398,868 · 14.7% peak518,328 · 19.0% peak518,328 · 19.0% peak1,327,734 · 48.8% peak1,327,734 · 48.8% peak412,830 · 15.2% peak412,830 · 15.2% peak2,346,565 · 86.2% peak2,346,565 · 86.2% peak1,849,021 · 67.9% peak1,849,021 · 67.9% peak1,050,182 · 38.6% peak1,050,182 · 38.6% peak911,673 · 33.5% peak911,673 · 33.5% peak2,379,952 · 87.5% peak2,379,952 · 87.5% peak1,364,911 · 50.2% peak1,364,911 · 50.2% peak86,851 · 3.2% peak86,851 · 3.2% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 24390493 · peak 2721336 · CV 0.80

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=0.0005 · σ=0.0123 · skew=-0.13 (symmetric) · kurt=1.11 (leptokurtic (fat tails))86420 1-334.36bpbin -334.36bp · n=1 · 12.5% peakbin -334.36bp · n=1 · 12.5% peak-281.51bp-228.66bp-175.81bp 2-122.96bpbin -122.96bp · n=2 · 25.0% peakbin -122.96bp · n=2 · 25.0% peak 4-70.11bpbin -70.11bp · n=4 · 50.0% peakbin -70.11bp · n=4 · 50.0% peak 8-17.25bpbin -17.25bp · n=8 · 100.0% peakbin -17.25bp · n=8 · 100.0% peak 335.60bpbin 35.60bp · n=3 · 37.5% peakbin 35.60bp · n=3 · 37.5% peak 288.45bpbin 88.45bp · n=2 · 25.0% peakbin 88.45bp · n=2 · 25.0% peak 1141.30bpbin 141.30bp · n=1 · 12.5% peakbin 141.30bp · n=1 · 12.5% peak 1194.15bpbin 194.15bp · n=1 · 12.5% peakbin 194.15bp · n=1 · 12.5% peak 2247.00bpbin 247.00bp · n=2 · 25.0% peakbin 247.00bp · n=2 · 25.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 13 · negative 10
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-0.20 · kurt=1.51 · near 16 / mid 8 / far 0 · OLS slope=0.98 intercept=-0.00APPROXIMATELY NORMALMILDLY HEAVY UPPERLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.0388
Mid price
$0.0388
24h change
+2.65%
Mark–mid spread
2.84 bps
Prev-day close
$0.0378

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25RIGHT-SKEWED (G₁=0.56)
μ MEAN0.0385$95% CI: [0.0383$, 0.0386$]
σ STD DEV0.0005$σ² = 0.002×10⁻⁴ · CV = 1.28%
med MEDIAN0.0384$Q₁ 0.0381$ · Q₃ 0.0388$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0021$ · IQR 0.0007$ (1.349σ→0.0007$)
min 0.0377$Q₁ 0.0381$med 0.0384$Q₃ 0.0388$max 0.0398$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.563right-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂0.251mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ median≈ equal · symmetric|μ−med| / σ = 0.06
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 0.99
range ↔ σwide tails (range > 4σ)range / σ = 4.23
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDEXCEPTIONAL EDGE · SR=7.87
μᵣ MEAN / h+0.111783%drift is positive per h · |μ|/σ = 0.084
σᵣ STD / h1.329730%σ²ᵣ = 1.768×10⁻⁴ · CV = 11.90×
σ ANNUALISED124.46%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 1.330%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)7.87excellent · top-decile
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)7.88strong downside-adjusted
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)100.00exceptional DD control
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.21approximately symmetric
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂2.18leptokurtic · fat tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside ≈ total vol · symmetricSoR / SR = 1.00
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown control exceptionalCR = 100.00
EXPECTED EDGE+979.22%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKHIGH · 95% VaR 1.17%
VaR₉₅ (h)1.171%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)3.054%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)2.403%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN5.22%9h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−1.171%VaR₉₉−3.054%ES₉₅−2.403%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEsignificant drawdown · 9h duration
PEAK3.98$
−5.22% drawdown over 9h
3.77$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmoderate fat tail|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 2.05× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONextreme-tail dominated · severe outliersratio = 2.61× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONsignificant drawdownrecovery needed: +5.50% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
56.5 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.723 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.0392
Bollinger MA
$0.0384
Bollinger lower
$0.0376

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.41 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.407within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.070lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.761strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT+0.873fails 5% test
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.761
H = 0.761STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.407k=2+0.070k=3+0.170k=4-0.084k=5-0.1540+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]NOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=0.87)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.41 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.93very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCENOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=0.87)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$941.39k
Open interest (USD)
$1.06M
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.89x
1h funding
0.001250%
Funding (annualised)
+10.95%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
6.322× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
3.161× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
1.580×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 2.73% · worst -3.61% · typical |Δ| 0.87%MILD BULLISH +2.68%BEST+2.73%15hWORST-3.61%16hTYPICAL |Δ|0.87%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+2.68%Σ signed ΔSTREAK▬ 0flat-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +0.32% · Σ +2.55%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.60% · Σ +4.80%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.58% · Σ -4.67%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +2.68%+5.38%0.00%2.72% · 12h2.72% · 12h2.72%12h-1.20% · 13h-1.20% · 13h-1.20%13h1.12% · 14h1.12% · 14h1.12%14h2.73% · 15h2.73% · 15h2.73%15h★ BEST-3.61% · 16h-3.61% · 16h-3.61%16h▼ WORST0.05% · 17h0.05% · 17h0.05%17h-0.10% · 18h-0.10% · 18h-0.10%18h0.09% · 19h0.09% · 19h0.09%19h-0.88% · 20h-0.88% · 20h-0.88%20h0.03% · 21h0.03% · 21h0.03%21h-0.65% · 22h-0.65% · 22h-0.65%22h0.40% · 23h0.40% · 23h0.40%23h-0.68% · 00h-0.68% · 00h-0.68%00h0.22% · 01h0.22% · 01h0.22%01h0.21% · 02h0.21% · 02h0.21%02h1.54% · 03h1.54% · 03h1.54%03h-0.40% · 04h-0.40% · 04h-0.40%04h2.03% · 05h2.03% · 05h2.03%05h-1.01% · 06h-1.01% · 06h-1.01%06h0.64% · 07h0.64% · 07h0.64%07h-0.57% · 08h-0.57% · 08h-0.57%08h0.03% · 09h0.03% · 09h0.03%09h-0.04% · 10h-0.04% · 10h-0.04%10h0.00% · 11h0.00% · 11h·11hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+4.80%)RUNSup max 3 · down max 1BREADTH54% up · 42% down · 4% flat
13 up bars · 10 down · best 2.73% · worst -3.61% · typical |Δ| 0.873%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsPROFITABLE +2.51%FINAL+2.51%MAX DD-5.29%RECOVERYONGOING · 20 barsMAX RUN-UP+5.44%UNDERWATER22/25 (88%)STREAK▬ 0EQUITY CURVE · end 1.0251 · peak 1.0544 · range [0.9986, 1.0544]1.05440.9986break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0544UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -5.29% · significant0%-5.29%▼ TROUGH -5.29%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 2 total#1 -5.29%bar 6-25 · 20 bars · ONGOING#2 -1.20%bar 3-4 · 2 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYsignificant (max -5.29%)RECOVERYongoing · 20 barsTIME UNDER WATER88% of session · 22/25 bars
final equity 1.0251 (2.51%) · max DD -5.29% · time-under-water 22/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +10 / −9 (53% positive) · μ=-3.43 · σ=32.68MIXED EDGELAST -26.25 (-0.70σ vs μ)55.2127.600.00-27.60-55.21μ = -3.4311.5811.58-7.31-7.312.092.09-13.14-13.14-47.48-47.48-55.21-55.21-36.09-36.09-51.05-51.05-44.92-44.92-15.75-15.7519.8319.8326.0226.0242.3542.3535.1035.1040.7440.7428.2928.2910.2810.2815.8115.81-26.25-26.25v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -26.251 · range [-55.21, 42.35] · μ -3.428 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=106.0634 · σ=59.5317 · range [38.6318, 229.4784] · R²=0.268▼ FALLING -76.91%σ EXTREME 56.13%LAST 52.9824229.4784181.7668134.055186.343538.6318μ = 106.0634max 229.4784min 38.6318dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.27μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 52.98% · range [38.63%, 229.48%] · μ 106.06% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +0 / −19 (0% positive) · μ=-0.514 · σ=0.203MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.648 (-0.66σ vs μ)0.7750.3880.000-0.388-0.775μ = -0.514-0.379-0.379-0.360-0.360-0.319-0.319-0.540-0.540-0.138-0.138-0.476-0.476-0.591-0.591-0.775-0.775-0.706-0.706-0.652-0.652-0.111-0.111-0.335-0.335-0.382-0.382-0.715-0.715-0.775-0.775-0.671-0.671-0.677-0.677-0.517-0.517-0.648-0.648v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.648 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
2 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence2 reject·4 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
4.9199
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0854
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
6.4819
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2612
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-3.1131
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0257
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonestationary · mean-reverting (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

REJECT H₀***

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
3.3444
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0008
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-random sign pattern (20 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.1747
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4009
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.7415
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0816
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.470 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=1.88e-4 · top T=2.00h (20.1%) · top-3 cover 54.8%2 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)4.5e-43.4e-42.3e-41.1e-40.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 7.85e-5 · 3.5% energyperiod 24.0 · power 7.85e-5 · 3.5% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.03e-4 · 4.5% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.03e-4 · 4.5% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.20e-4 · 5.3% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.20e-4 · 5.3% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.07e-5 · 0.5% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.07e-5 · 0.5% energyperiod 4.8 · power 2.86e-5 · 1.3% energyperiod 4.8 · power 2.86e-5 · 1.3% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.11e-4 · 4.9% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.11e-4 · 4.9% energyperiod 3.4 · power 2.28e-4 · 10.1% energyperiod 3.4 · power 2.28e-4 · 10.1% energyperiod 3.0 · power 3.46e-4 · 15.3% energyperiod 3.0 · power 3.46e-4 · 15.3% energyperiod 2.7 · power 2.56e-4 · 11.3% energyperiod 2.7 · power 2.56e-4 · 11.3% energyperiod 2.4 · power 4.39e-4 · 19.4% energyperiod 2.4 · power 4.39e-4 · 19.4% energyperiod 2.2 · power 8.70e-5 · 3.9% energyperiod 2.2 · power 8.70e-5 · 3.9% energyperiod 2.0 · power 4.54e-4 · 20.1% energyperiod 2.0 · power 4.54e-4 · 20.1% energy50% by T=2.7h#1 dominantT=2.00h#2T=2.40h#3T=3.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.00h (freq 0.500) · concentrates 20.1% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 2.261e-3

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5258724 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
f★ empirical 4.03× · g(f★) 0.001%/barparametric μ/σ² 3.82× · μ 0.000% · σ 0.09%
μ per barmean
0.000%
σ per barvol
0.09%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
4.03×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
3.82×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
2.02×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
1.01×
industry default — survives model error
0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×f★ empμ/σ²leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.95× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe 6.88400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.95× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
0.003
annualized 6.88
μ per barafter L
0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.09%
VaR 95%5%
0.06%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.11%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.3%
0.92×0.95×0.99×1.03×1.06×1.10×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR 1000% · APY 1000% · Sharpe 8.26σ ann 216% · Sortino 11.75 · n 4999 · ⚠ capped (n=4999 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
0%282%564%846%1128%1410%1000.0%APR (simple)1000.0%APY (compound)216.4%Ann. vol σ825.9%Sharpe (ann)1174.9%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.0360.0370.0380.0390.0400.041t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 11:00:20 UTC
Snapshot age
1.0s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 11:00:22 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
099306e82f528678cefedf094a75727a7a63b6ed293126a8a357d1b39f492be2 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$2.26K
bid $1.52K · ask $739
Depth within 10bp
$5.99K
bid $2.82K · ask $3.18K
Depth within 50bp
$40.67K
bid $14.38K · ask $26.28K
Mid price
0.038770
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
2.1bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.291
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.061
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-pyth/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.0387853.76bp0.0387995FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.03882113.04bp0.03883613FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.03884519.29bp0.03890020PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.0387592.78bp0.0387592FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.03871813.38bp0.03867215FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.03870217.66bp0.03864520PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.250e-5
0.00125% / hr
Annualised APR
10.958%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
33.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
33.3d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-10.958%33.3d333.3d
SHORTRECEIVE10.958%33.3d333.3d

/api/asset/hl-pyth/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$24.39M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-pyth/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ BID-LEAN · +0.331 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
13 / 11
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$16.01M
real volume
Sell weight
$8.05M
real volume
Net delta
$7.96M
buyers net
Imbalance
33.11%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
33.1%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-pyth/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 6 found · deepest 3.60% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-13 16:00:00Z2.0h0.039819→0.0383873.596%3
#22026-06-13 20:00:00Z2.0h0.038426→0.0378511.496%3
#32026-06-13 13:00:00Z0ms0.038775→0.0383131.191%1

/api/asset/hl-pyth/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
216.42%
σ per bar = 0.000944
Mean return (annualised)
1787.40%
μ per bar = 0.000003
Sharpe (rf=0)
8.26
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
3.82%
peak 0.04 → trough 0.04 over 1285 bars

/api/asset/hl-pyth/risk · same metrics, JSON