HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

RENDER

RENDER-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-render · fresh · feed 3s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▲ 1.46%
realized vol (ann.)
75.69%
max drawdown
1.52%
sharpe
-7.85
ulcer index
0.60%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.49%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.04%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-983.34
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
1.29%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.99
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-459.89
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.99
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
1.46%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.95%
signalNEUTRALconfidence 31%
  • 24h change +1.46%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 5.1bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-render/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH2.7s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$1.768
24h Δ · live
1.46%
24h vol · live
$1.9M
RENDER · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=1.7718 · σ=0.0131 · range [1.7489, 1.8060] · R²=0.009▲ RISING +0.26%σ LOW 0.74%LAST 1.76811.80601.79171.77741.76321.7489μ = 1.7718max 1.8060min 1.7489dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.01μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $1.77
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.1%Short fee 51.9%SHORT FEE51.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001250% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=1,050,710 · μ=42028.4 · σ=50183.6 · CV=1.19BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=11055,442110,885166,327221,769μ = 42028221,769.150%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 221769 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
2.7s
$mark $
$1.7681
$mid $
$1.7686
◉prev-day close
$1.7427
Δ24h Δ %
+1.458%
$24h vol $
$1.87M
◐open interest $
$2.19M
%funding (1h)
0.001250%
%funding (yr)
+10.95%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=1.7718 · σ=0.0131 · range [1.7489, 1.8060] · R²=0.009▲ RISING +0.26%σ LOW 0.74%LAST 1.76811.80601.79171.77741.76321.7489μ = 1.7718max 1.8060min 1.7489dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.01μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $1.7681 · 24h 1.46% · range $[1.7489, 1.8060]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 14 · down 11 (56% up) · range [1.7399, 1.8155] · σ=0.0131 · CV=0.01 · bodyµ=37%BULLISH +1.46%CLOSE 1.7681 vs OPEN 1.7427 (+1.46%)&#9650; CLOSE 1.76811.81551.79661.77771.75881.7399μ close = 1.7718O1.743 H1.775 L1.740 C1.764 (+1.19%)O1.743 H1.775 L1.740 C1.764 (+1.19%)O1.761 H1.791 L1.755 C1.769 (+0.48%)O1.761 H1.791 L1.755 C1.769 (+0.48%)O1.772 H1.806 L1.770 C1.794 (+1.25%)O1.772 H1.806 L1.770 C1.794 (+1.25%)O1.794 H1.806 L1.783 C1.806 (+0.65%)O1.794 H1.806 L1.783 C1.806 (+0.65%)O1.806 H1.815 L1.775 C1.793 (-0.74%)O1.806 H1.815 L1.775 C1.793 (-0.74%)O1.789 H1.789 L1.747 C1.765 (-1.34%)O1.789 H1.789 L1.747 C1.765 (-1.34%)O1.768 H1.786 L1.755 C1.760 (-0.43%)O1.768 H1.786 L1.755 C1.760 (-0.43%)O1.757 H1.775 L1.742 C1.749 (-0.44%)O1.757 H1.775 L1.742 C1.749 (-0.44%)O1.751 H1.764 L1.744 C1.756 (+0.32%)O1.751 H1.764 L1.744 C1.756 (+0.32%)O1.755 H1.762 L1.751 C1.762 (+0.35%)O1.755 H1.762 L1.751 C1.762 (+0.35%)O1.762 H1.790 L1.756 C1.775 (+0.72%)O1.762 H1.790 L1.756 C1.775 (+0.72%)O1.776 H1.790 L1.771 C1.771 (-0.26%)O1.776 H1.790 L1.771 C1.771 (-0.26%)O1.771 H1.782 L1.769 C1.771 (-0.02%)O1.771 H1.782 L1.769 C1.771 (-0.02%)O1.773 H1.773 L1.758 C1.762 (-0.63%)O1.773 H1.773 L1.758 C1.762 (-0.63%)O1.763 H1.774 L1.757 C1.770 (+0.39%)O1.763 H1.774 L1.757 C1.770 (+0.39%)O1.767 H1.792 L1.763 C1.781 (+0.83%)O1.767 H1.792 L1.763 C1.781 (+0.83%)O1.780 H1.790 L1.767 C1.788 (+0.44%)O1.780 H1.790 L1.767 C1.788 (+0.44%)-1.6%O1.788 H1.789 L1.754 C1.760 (-1.55%)O1.788 H1.789 L1.754 C1.760 (-1.55%)O1.762 H1.768 L1.745 C1.766 (+0.28%)O1.762 H1.768 L1.745 C1.766 (+0.28%)O1.767 H1.791 L1.762 C1.765 (-0.09%)O1.767 H1.791 L1.762 C1.765 (-0.09%)O1.764 H1.780 L1.760 C1.774 (+0.54%)O1.764 H1.780 L1.760 C1.774 (+0.54%)O1.774 H1.786 L1.764 C1.772 (-0.15%)O1.774 H1.786 L1.764 C1.772 (-0.15%)O1.773 H1.790 L1.759 C1.786 (+0.73%)O1.773 H1.790 L1.759 C1.786 (+0.73%)O1.786 H1.806 L1.767 C1.770 (-0.88%)O1.786 H1.806 L1.767 C1.770 (-0.88%)O1.768 H1.768 L1.768 C1.768 (+0.00%)O1.768 H1.768 L1.768 C1.768 (+0.00%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=1,050,710 · μ=42028.4 · σ=50183.6 · CV=1.19BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=11055,442110,885166,327221,769μ = 4202823,386.9 · 10.5% peak23,386.9 · 10.5% peak77,919.7 · 35.1% peak77,919.7 · 35.1% peak50,749.3 · 22.9% peak50,749.3 · 22.9% peak48,977.6 · 22.1% peak48,977.6 · 22.1% peak128,666 · 58.0% peak128,666 · 58.0% peak48,252.6 · 21.8% peak48,252.6 · 21.8% peak47,689.3 · 21.5% peak47,689.3 · 21.5% peak36,151.4 · 16.3% peak36,151.4 · 16.3% peak18,465.7 · 8.3% peak18,465.7 · 8.3% peak12,787.6 · 5.8% peak12,787.6 · 5.8% peak44,067 · 19.9% peak44,067 · 19.9% peak21,736.2 · 9.8% peak21,736.2 · 9.8% peak2,700.3 · 1.2% peak2,700.3 · 1.2% peak8,867.2 · 4.0% peak8,867.2 · 4.0% peak11,292.6 · 5.1% peak11,292.6 · 5.1% peak8,796.2 · 4.0% peak8,796.2 · 4.0% peak124,509.8 · 56.1% peak124,509.8 · 56.1% peak7,799.6 · 3.5% peak7,799.6 · 3.5% peak32,930.3 · 14.8% peak32,930.3 · 14.8% peak12,815.6 · 5.8% peak12,815.6 · 5.8% peak11,027.2 · 5.0% peak11,027.2 · 5.0% peak25,714.1 · 11.6% peak25,714.1 · 11.6% peak23,618.1 · 10.6% peak23,618.1 · 10.6% peak221,769.1221,769.1 · 100.0% peak221,769.1 · 100.0% peak20.5 · 0.0% peak20.5 · 0.0% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 1050710 · peak 221769 · CV 1.19

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=0.0001 · σ=0.0068 · skew=-0.47 (symmetric) · kurt=-0.31 (mesokurtic)54310 2-142.72bpbin -142.72bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin -142.72bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak-118.10bp 1-93.49bpbin -93.49bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin -93.49bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 2-68.88bpbin -68.88bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin -68.88bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak 1-44.27bpbin -44.27bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin -44.27bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 5-19.65bpbin -19.65bp · n=5 · 100.0% peakbin -19.65bp · n=5 · 100.0% peak 14.96bpbin 4.96bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 4.96bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 529.57bpbin 29.57bp · n=5 · 100.0% peakbin 29.57bp · n=5 · 100.0% peak 354.19bpbin 54.19bp · n=3 · 60.0% peakbin 54.19bp · n=3 · 60.0% peak 378.80bpbin 78.80bp · n=3 · 60.0% peakbin 78.80bp · n=3 · 60.0% peak103.41bp 1128.03bpbin 128.03bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 128.03bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 12 · negative 12
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-0.55 · kurt=-0.02 · near 21 / mid 3 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.00 intercept=-0.00APPROXIMATELY NORMALUPPER TAIL NORMALMILDLY HEAVY LOWER-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$1.7681
Mid price
$1.7686
24h change
+1.46%
Mark–mid spread
2.55 bps
Prev-day close
$1.7427

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25RIGHT-SKEWED (G₁=0.80)
μ MEAN1.7718$95% CI: [1.7667$, 1.7769$]
σ STD DEV0.0131$σ² = 1.712×10⁻⁴ · CV = 0.74%
med MEDIAN1.7698$Q₁ 1.7635$ · Q₃ 1.7746$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0571$ · IQR 0.0111$ (1.349σ→0.0177$)
min 1.7489$Q₁ 1.7635$med 1.7698$Q₃ 1.7746$max 1.8060$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.804right-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂0.155mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.15
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 1.59
range ↔ σwide tails (range > 4σ)range / σ = 4.36
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDGOOD · SR=1.41
μᵣ MEAN / h+0.010854%drift is positive per h · |μ|/σ = 0.015
σᵣ STD / h0.722270%σ²ᵣ = 0.522×10⁻⁴ · CV = 66.54×
σ ANNUALISED67.60%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.722%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)1.41good · industry threshold
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)1.34good downside-adjusted
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)30.07exceptional DD control
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.59left-skewed · heavy negative tail
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂0.27mesokurtic · normal-like tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside ≈ total vol · symmetricSoR / SR = 0.95
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown control exceptionalCR = 30.07
EXPECTED EDGE+95.08%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKHIGH · 95% VaR 1.44%
VaR₉₅ (h)1.442%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)1.548%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)1.545%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN3.16%4h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−1.442%VaR₉₉−1.548%ES₉₅−1.545%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 4h duration
PEAK180.60$
−3.16% drawdown over 4h
174.89$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSthin tails · ES ≈ VaR|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.07× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONuniform tailratio = 1.07× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +3.26% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
49.8 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.490 · within band
Bollinger upper
$1.7875
Bollinger MA
$1.7685
Bollinger lower
$1.7495

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MARTINGALE · UNPREDICTABLE
ρ(1) AUTOCORR+0.083within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.085lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.790strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-0.446fails 5% test
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.790
H = 0.790STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..51 SIGNIFICANT LAG · k=3
k=1+0.083k=2-0.085k=3 ★-0.486k=4-0.047k=5-0.2590+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]NOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=0.45)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMARTINGALE · UNPREDICTABLEfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.66very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCENOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=0.45)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$1.87M
Open interest (USD)
$2.19M
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.85x
1h funding
0.001250%
Funding (annualised)
+10.95%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
2.081× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
1.040× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
0.520×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 1.40% · worst -1.55% · typical |Δ| 0.57%MILD BULLISH +0.26%BEST+1.40%13hWORST-1.55%04hTYPICAL |Δ|0.57%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+0.26%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 2down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +0.02% · Σ +0.16%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.17% · Σ +1.33%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.15% · Σ -1.23%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +0.26%+2.38%-0.83%0.31% · 12h0.31% · 12h0.31%12h1.40% · 13h1.40% · 13h1.40%13h★ BEST0.67% · 14h0.67% · 14h0.67%14h-0.74% · 15h-0.74% · 15h-0.74%15h-1.54% · 16h-1.54% · 16h-1.54%16h-0.29% · 17h-0.29% · 17h-0.29%17h-0.64% · 18h-0.64% · 18h-0.64%18h0.42% · 19h0.42% · 19h0.42%19h0.30% · 20h0.30% · 20h0.30%20h0.74% · 21h0.74% · 21h0.74%21h-0.19% · 22h-0.19% · 22h-0.19%22h-0.03% · 23h-0.03% · 23h-0.03%23h-0.52% · 00h-0.52% · 00h-0.52%00h0.47% · 01h0.47% · 01h0.47%01h0.64% · 02h0.64% · 02h0.64%02h0.36% · 03h0.36% · 03h0.36%03h-1.55% · 04h-1.55% · 04h-1.55%04h▼ WORST0.36% · 05h0.36% · 05h0.36%05h-0.07% · 06h-0.07% · 06h-0.07%06h0.47% · 07h0.47% · 07h0.47%07h-0.10% · 08h-0.10% · 08h-0.10%08h0.79% · 09h0.79% · 09h0.79%09h-0.88% · 10h-0.88% · 10h-0.88%10h-0.11% · 11h-0.11% · 11h-0.11%11hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+1.33%)RUNSup max 3 · down max 4BREADTH50% up · 50% down
12 up bars · 12 down · best 1.40% · worst -1.55% · typical |Δ| 0.567%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsPROFITABLE +0.20%FINAL+0.20%MAX DD-3.18%RECOVERYONGOING · 21 barsMAX RUN-UP+2.40%UNDERWATER21/25 (84%)STREAK↘ 2EQUITY CURVE · end 1.0020 · peak 1.0240 · range [0.9914, 1.0240]1.02400.9914break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0240UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -3.18% · moderate0%-3.18%▼ TROUGH -3.18%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 1 total#1 -3.18%bar 5-25 · 21 bars · ONGOINGDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -3.18%)RECOVERYongoing · 21 barsTIME UNDER WATER84% of session · 21/25 bars
final equity 1.0020 (0.20%) · max DD -3.18% · time-under-water 21/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +10 / −9 (53% positive) · μ=0.18 · σ=22.76MIXED EDGELAST 2.46 (+0.10σ vs μ)53.5126.750.00-26.75-53.51μ = 0.18-2.87-2.87-16.82-16.82-41.01-41.01-53.51-53.51-18.80-18.8010.2910.2919.1319.1324.6024.6026.0126.0134.2234.2225.8525.85-11.83-11.83-4.39-4.394.034.034.124.12-10.92-10.92-2.01-2.0114.9414.942.462.46v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 2.457 · range [-53.51, 34.22] · μ 0.184 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=65.9437 · σ=18.3118 · range [41.5355, 99.1802] · R²=0.063▼ FALLING -45.28%σ EXTREME 27.77%LAST 53.794599.180284.769070.357855.946741.5355μ = 65.9437max 99.1802min 41.5355dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.06μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 53.79% · range [41.54%, 99.18%] · μ 65.94% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +7 / −12 (37% positive) · μ=-0.068 · σ=0.279CLOSE TO MARTINGALELAST -0.462 (-1.41σ vs μ)0.5800.2900.000-0.290-0.580μ = -0.0680.4460.4460.3240.324-0.077-0.0770.2310.2310.1850.1850.0570.057-0.159-0.1590.1100.110-0.150-0.150-0.038-0.0380.2300.230-0.051-0.051-0.234-0.234-0.183-0.183-0.277-0.277-0.457-0.457-0.216-0.216-0.580-0.580-0.462-0.462v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.462 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
ALL TESTS PASS · data behaves as nominal0 reject·6 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
1.4481
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4848
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
9.6787
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0839
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-2.6242
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0907
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
-0.4174
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6764
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (12 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.0803
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5000
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
0.1054
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.9160
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 1.032 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=5.95e-5 · top T=2.00h (32.1%) · top-3 cover 73.6%2 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)2.3e-41.7e-41.1e-45.7e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 4.89e-6 · 0.7% energyperiod 24.0 · power 4.89e-6 · 0.7% energyperiod 12.0 · power 4.95e-5 · 6.9% energyperiod 12.0 · power 4.95e-5 · 6.9% energyperiod 8.0 · power 4.91e-5 · 6.9% energyperiod 8.0 · power 4.91e-5 · 6.9% energyperiod 6.0 · power 2.28e-4 · 31.9% energyperiod 6.0 · power 2.28e-4 · 31.9% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.55e-5 · 2.2% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.55e-5 · 2.2% energyperiod 4.0 · power 6.87e-5 · 9.6% energyperiod 4.0 · power 6.87e-5 · 9.6% energyperiod 3.4 · power 2.26e-5 · 3.2% energyperiod 3.4 · power 2.26e-5 · 3.2% energyperiod 3.0 · power 2.53e-5 · 3.5% energyperiod 3.0 · power 2.53e-5 · 3.5% energyperiod 2.7 · power 4.45e-6 · 0.6% energyperiod 2.7 · power 4.45e-6 · 0.6% energyperiod 2.4 · power 9.27e-6 · 1.3% energyperiod 2.4 · power 9.27e-6 · 1.3% energyperiod 2.2 · power 8.08e-6 · 1.1% energyperiod 2.2 · power 8.08e-6 · 1.1% energyperiod 2.0 · power 2.29e-4 · 32.1% energyperiod 2.0 · power 2.29e-4 · 32.1% energy50% by T=4.0h#1 dominantT=2.00h#2T=6.00h#3T=4.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.00h (freq 0.500) · concentrates 32.1% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 7.145e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5258724 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.000% per barparametric μ/σ² short edge (μ<0) · μ -0.000% · σ 0.03%
μ per barmean
-0.000%
σ per barvol
0.03%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-11.27×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.00%0.02%0.05%0.07%0.10%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -15.97400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.007
annualized -15.97
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.00%
VaR 95%5%
0.01%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.01%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.0%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -723% · APY -100% · Sharpe -9.03σ ann 80% · Sortino -7.32 · n 4999
-1084%-848%-612%-376%-140%96%-723.4%APR (simple)-99.9%APY (compound)80.1%Ann. vol σ-903.0%Sharpe (ann)-732.3%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.001% · long-run σ = 2.236%
1.6761.7141.7521.7901.8281.866t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 11:00:26 UTC
Snapshot age
2.7s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 11:00:29 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
d4b94fc1f64361d72cd43c1e31e99d5fab50edeecd2a656862caaba8ce82c060 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$1.64K
bid $216 · ask $1.43K
Depth within 10bp
$7.34K
bid $4.28K · ask $3.06K
Depth within 50bp
$58.86K
bid $32.80K · ask $26.07K
Mid price
1.768200
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
4.5bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.116
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.337
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-render/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K1.76872.92bp1.76892FILLED
BUY$10.00K1.770513.10bp1.771612FILLED
BUY$100.00K1.771921.00bp1.774920PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K1.76734.92bp1.76722FILLED
SELL$10.00K1.766311.01bp1.765612FILLED
SELL$100.00K1.764818.99bp1.763120PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.250e-5
0.00125% / hr
Annualised APR
10.958%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
33.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
33.3d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-10.958%33.3d333.3d
SHORTRECEIVE10.958%33.3d333.3d

/api/asset/hl-render/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$1.0000–$2.0000★25$1.05M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-render/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ ASK-LEAN · -0.094 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
12 / 12
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$465.14K
real volume
Sell weight
$562.18K
real volume
Net delta
$97.04K
sellers net
Imbalance
-9.45%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
9.4%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-render/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 4 found · deepest 3.16% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-13 15:00:00Z4.0h1.8060→1.74893.162%5
#22026-06-14 04:00:00Z2.0h1.7877→1.76021.538%3
#32026-06-14 10:00:00Z1.0h1.7858→1.76810.991%2

/api/asset/hl-render/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
80.10%
σ per bar = 0.000349
Mean return (annualised)
-723.36%
μ per bar = -0.000001
Sharpe (rf=0)
-9.03
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
2.44%
peak 1.79 → trough 1.75 over 908 bars

/api/asset/hl-render/risk · same metrics, JSON