HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

RESOLV

RESOLV-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-resolv · fresh · feed 1s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -0.81%
realized vol (ann.)
102.86%
max drawdown
3.46%
sharpe
-39.19
ulcer index
1.22%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.91%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.06%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-3292.64
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
3.14%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.94
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-1284.81
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.94
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-0.81%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.95%
signalNEUTRALconfidence 35%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-resolv/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH1.2s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.017
24h Δ · live
-0.81%
24h vol · live
$0.1M
RESOLV · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.0170 · σ=0.0002 · range [0.0167, 0.0173] · R²=0.001▼ FALLING -0.95%σ LOW 0.91%LAST 0.01680.01730.01720.01700.01680.0167μ = 0.0170max 0.0173min 0.0167dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.00μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.02
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.1%Short fee 51.9%SHORT FEE51.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001250% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=4,268,489 · μ=170739.6 · σ=128097.4 · CV=0.75STEADY FLOWcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=130155,921311,843467,764623,685μ = 170740623,68550%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 623685 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
1.2s
$mark $
$0.0168
$mid $
$0.0168
◉prev-day close
$0.017
Δ24h Δ %
-0.808%
$24h vol $
$70.13k
◐open interest $
$193.95k
%funding (1h)
0.001250%
%funding (yr)
+10.95%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.0170 · σ=0.0002 · range [0.0167, 0.0173] · R²=0.001▼ FALLING -0.95%σ LOW 0.91%LAST 0.01680.01730.01720.01700.01680.0167μ = 0.0170max 0.0173min 0.0167dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.00μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.0168 · 24h -0.81% · range $[0.0167, 0.0173]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 10 · down 15 (40% up) · range [0.0166, 0.0174] · σ=0.0002 · CV=0.01 · bodyµ=52%BEARISH -1.48%CLOSE 0.0168 vs OPEN 0.0170 (-1.48%)&#9660; CLOSE 0.01680.01740.01720.01700.01680.0166μ close = 0.0170O0.017 H0.017 L0.017 C0.017 (-0.53%)O0.017 H0.017 L0.017 C0.017 (-0.53%)O0.017 H0.017 L0.017 C0.017 (+0.38%)O0.017 H0.017 L0.017 C0.017 (+0.38%)O0.017 H0.017 L0.017 C0.017 (-0.45%)O0.017 H0.017 L0.017 C0.017 (-0.45%)O0.017 H0.017 L0.017 C0.017 (+0.50%)O0.017 H0.017 L0.017 C0.017 (+0.50%)O0.017 H0.017 L0.017 C0.017 (-0.09%)O0.017 H0.017 L0.017 C0.017 (-0.09%)O0.017 H0.017 L0.017 C0.017 (+0.62%)O0.017 H0.017 L0.017 C0.017 (+0.62%)O0.017 H0.017 L0.017 C0.017 (-0.57%)O0.017 H0.017 L0.017 C0.017 (-0.57%)O0.017 H0.017 L0.017 C0.017 (+0.70%)O0.017 H0.017 L0.017 C0.017 (+0.70%)O0.017 H0.017 L0.017 C0.017 (-0.31%)O0.017 H0.017 L0.017 C0.017 (-0.31%)O0.017 H0.017 L0.017 C0.017 (-0.47%)O0.017 H0.017 L0.017 C0.017 (-0.47%)O0.017 H0.017 L0.017 C0.017 (-0.44%)O0.017 H0.017 L0.017 C0.017 (-0.44%)O0.017 H0.017 L0.017 C0.017 (+0.24%)O0.017 H0.017 L0.017 C0.017 (+0.24%)O0.017 H0.017 L0.017 C0.017 (-0.19%)O0.017 H0.017 L0.017 C0.017 (-0.19%)O0.017 H0.017 L0.017 C0.017 (+0.55%)O0.017 H0.017 L0.017 C0.017 (+0.55%)O0.017 H0.017 L0.017 C0.017 (-1.38%)O0.017 H0.017 L0.017 C0.017 (-1.38%)O0.017 H0.017 L0.017 C0.017 (-0.70%)O0.017 H0.017 L0.017 C0.017 (-0.70%)O0.017 H0.017 L0.017 C0.017 (-0.27%)O0.017 H0.017 L0.017 C0.017 (-0.27%)O0.017 H0.017 L0.017 C0.017 (-0.83%)O0.017 H0.017 L0.017 C0.017 (-0.83%)O0.017 H0.017 L0.017 C0.017 (+1.18%)O0.017 H0.017 L0.017 C0.017 (+1.18%)O0.017 H0.017 L0.017 C0.017 (+1.68%)O0.017 H0.017 L0.017 C0.017 (+1.68%)O0.017 H0.017 L0.017 C0.017 (+0.52%)O0.017 H0.017 L0.017 C0.017 (+0.52%)O0.017 H0.017 L0.017 C0.017 (-0.61%)O0.017 H0.017 L0.017 C0.017 (-0.61%)O0.017 H0.017 L0.017 C0.017 (+1.31%)O0.017 H0.017 L0.017 C0.017 (+1.31%)O0.017 H0.017 L0.017 C0.017 (-0.70%)O0.017 H0.017 L0.017 C0.017 (-0.70%)-2.6%O0.017 H0.017 L0.017 C0.017 (-2.55%)O0.017 H0.017 L0.017 C0.017 (-2.55%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=4,268,489 · μ=170739.6 · σ=128097.4 · CV=0.75STEADY FLOWcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=130155,921311,843467,764623,685μ = 170740158,158 · 25.4% peak158,158 · 25.4% peak63,570 · 10.2% peak63,570 · 10.2% peak139,201 · 22.3% peak139,201 · 22.3% peak265,106 · 42.5% peak265,106 · 42.5% peak38,766 · 6.2% peak38,766 · 6.2% peak99,539 · 16.0% peak99,539 · 16.0% peak175,541 · 28.1% peak175,541 · 28.1% peak93,120 · 14.9% peak93,120 · 14.9% peak158,084 · 25.3% peak158,084 · 25.3% peak80,703 · 12.9% peak80,703 · 12.9% peak623,685623,685 · 100.0% peak623,685 · 100.0% peak63,490 · 10.2% peak63,490 · 10.2% peak231,387 · 37.1% peak231,387 · 37.1% peak64,744 · 10.4% peak64,744 · 10.4% peak125,535 · 20.1% peak125,535 · 20.1% peak116,249 · 18.6% peak116,249 · 18.6% peak72,871 · 11.7% peak72,871 · 11.7% peak53,088 · 8.5% peak53,088 · 8.5% peak135,420 · 21.7% peak135,420 · 21.7% peak253,087 · 40.6% peak253,087 · 40.6% peak305,870 · 49.0% peak305,870 · 49.0% peak95,239 · 15.3% peak95,239 · 15.3% peak298,513 · 47.9% peak298,513 · 47.9% peak235,118 · 37.7% peak235,118 · 37.7% peak322,405 · 51.7% peak322,405 · 51.7% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 4268489 · peak 623685 · CV 0.75

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=-0.0007 · σ=0.0084 · skew=-0.51 (left-skewed) · kurt=0.40 (mesokurtic)54310 1-235.07bpbin -235.07bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin -235.07bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak-201.84bp-168.60bp 1-135.36bpbin -135.36bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin -135.36bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak-102.13bp 5-68.89bpbin -68.89bp · n=5 · 100.0% peakbin -68.89bp · n=5 · 100.0% peak 5-35.66bpbin -35.66bp · n=5 · 100.0% peakbin -35.66bp · n=5 · 100.0% peak 2-2.42bpbin -2.42bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin -2.42bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak 230.82bpbin 30.82bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin 30.82bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak 564.05bpbin 64.05bp · n=5 · 100.0% peakbin 64.05bp · n=5 · 100.0% peak 197.29bpbin 97.29bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 97.29bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 2130.52bpbin 130.52bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin 130.52bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 11 · negative 13
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-0.52 · kurt=0.60 · near 21 / mid 3 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.00 intercept=-0.00APPROXIMATELY NORMALUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.0168
Mid price
$0.0168
24h change
-0.81%
Mark–mid spread
4.16 bps
Prev-day close
$0.017

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25APPROXIMATELY NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVED
μ MEAN0.0170$95% CI: [0.0169$, 0.0171$]
σ STD DEV0.0002$σ² = 0.000×10⁻⁴ · CV = 0.91%
med MEDIAN0.0170$Q₁ 0.0170$ · Q₃ 0.0171$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0007$ · IQR 0.0001$ (1.349σ→0.0002$)
min 0.0167$Q₁ 0.0170$med 0.0170$Q₃ 0.0171$max 0.0173$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.240approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.502mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ < med · left-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.11
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 1.52
range ↔ σwide tails (range > 4σ)range / σ = 4.24
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDUNPROFITABLE · SR=-4.10
μᵣ MEAN / h-0.039759%drift is negative per h · |μ|/σ = 0.044
σᵣ STD / h0.907007%σ²ᵣ = 0.823×10⁻⁴ · CV = 22.81×
σ ANNUALISED84.89%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.907%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)-4.10negative edge
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)-4.04downside drag
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)-100.00drawdown overwhelms returns
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.55left-skewed · heavy negative tail
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂1.04leptokurtic · fat tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 0.99
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown > returns · adverseCR = -100.00
EXPECTED EDGE-348.29%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKHIGH · 95% VaR 1.22%
VaR₉₅ (h)1.216%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)2.233%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)1.900%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN3.05%2h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−1.216%VaR₉₉−2.233%ES₉₅−1.900%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 2h duration
PEAK1.73$
−3.05% drawdown over 2h
1.68$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmoderate fat tail|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.56× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONextreme-tail dominated · severe outliersratio = 1.84× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +3.15% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
44.9 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.181 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.0174
Bollinger MA
$0.0170
Bollinger lower
$0.0167

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit root
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.084within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.096lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT1.047strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-0.184fails 5% test
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 1.047
H = 1.047STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.084k=2-0.096k=3+0.053k=4-0.058k=5-0.3890+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]NOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=0.18)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit rootfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCENOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=0.18)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$70.13k
Open interest (USD)
$193.95k
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.36x
1h funding
0.001250%
Funding (annualised)
+10.95%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
-4.833× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
-2.416× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
-1.208×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 1.47% · worst -2.52% · typical |Δ| 0.72%MILD BEARISH -0.95%BEST+1.47%12hWORST-2.52%14hTYPICAL |Δ|0.72%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-0.95%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 2down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.29% · Σ -2.28%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.15% · Σ +1.18%US · 16-24 UTCμ +0.02% · Σ +0.15%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -0.95%+2.15%-1.70%0.44% · 15h0.44% · 15h0.44%15h-0.41% · 16h-0.41% · 16h-0.41%16h0.62% · 17h0.62% · 17h0.62%17h-0.25% · 18h-0.25% · 18h-0.25%18h0.77% · 19h0.77% · 19h0.77%19h-0.58% · 20h-0.58% · 20h-0.58%20h0.70% · 21h0.70% · 21h0.70%21h-0.29% · 22h-0.29% · 22h-0.29%22h-0.42% · 23h-0.42% · 23h-0.42%23h-0.58% · 00h-0.58% · 00h-0.58%00h0.24% · 01h0.24% · 01h0.24%01h-0.15% · 02h-0.15% · 02h-0.15%02h0.69% · 03h0.69% · 03h0.69%03h-1.28% · 04h-1.28% · 04h-1.28%04h-0.52% · 05h-0.52% · 05h-0.52%05h0.14% · 06h0.14% · 06h0.14%06h-0.83% · 07h-0.83% · 07h-0.83%07h1.12% · 08h1.12% · 08h1.12%08h1.39% · 09h1.39% · 09h1.39%09h0.62% · 10h0.62% · 10h0.62%10h-0.75% · 11h-0.75% · 11h-0.75%11h1.47% · 12h1.47% · 12h1.47%12h★ BEST-0.58% · 13h-0.58% · 13h-0.58%13h-2.52% · 14h-2.52% · 14h-2.52%14h▼ WORSTTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+1.18%)RUNSup max 3 · down max 3BREADTH46% up · 54% down
11 up bars · 13 down · best 1.47% · worst -2.52% · typical |Δ| 0.723%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS WITH MODERATE DD (-1.04%)FINAL-1.04%MAX DD-3.09%RECOVERYONGOING · 2 barsMAX RUN-UP+2.11%UNDERWATER18/25 (72%)STREAK↘ 2EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9896 · peak 1.0211 · range [0.9828, 1.0211]1.02110.9828break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0211UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -3.09% · moderate0%-3.09%▼ TROUGH -3.09%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 6 total#1 -3.09%bar 24-25 · 2 bars · ONGOING#2 -2.96%bar 9-20 · 12 bars · recovered#3 -0.75%bar 22-22 · 1 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -3.09%)RECOVERYongoing · 2 barsTIME UNDER WATER72% of session · 18/25 bars
final equity 0.9896 (-1.04%) · max DD -3.09% · time-under-water 18/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +8 / −11 (42% positive) · μ=0.07 · σ=28.14MIXED EDGELAST -3.76 (-0.14σ vs μ)51.7025.850.00-25.85-51.70μ = 0.0715.9815.9821.5321.5325.3925.39-1.71-1.71-9.78-9.78-28.05-28.05-16.33-16.33-16.43-16.43-33.91-33.91-35.90-35.90-19.88-19.88-43.05-43.05-11.58-11.580.170.1733.6933.6928.1528.1545.0845.0851.7051.70-3.76-3.76v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -3.759 · range [-43.05, 51.70] · μ 0.068 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=72.0270 · σ=24.8172 · range [44.0793, 143.1322] · R²=0.673▲ RISING +163.71%σ EXTREME 34.46%LAST 143.1322143.1322118.369093.605768.842544.0793μ = 72.0270max 143.1322min 44.0793dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.67μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 143.13% · range [44.08%, 143.13%] · μ 72.03% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +4 / −15 (21% positive) · μ=-0.311 · σ=0.311MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.004 (+0.99σ vs μ)0.8530.4260.000-0.426-0.853μ = -0.311-0.779-0.779-0.811-0.811-0.853-0.853-0.644-0.644-0.371-0.371-0.376-0.376-0.098-0.0980.0030.003-0.399-0.399-0.295-0.295-0.270-0.270-0.374-0.374-0.383-0.3830.1900.1900.1580.1580.0430.043-0.280-0.280-0.370-0.370-0.004-0.004v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.004 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
2.3209
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3134
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
5.5964
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3474
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-2.4917
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1230
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

REJECT H₀*

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
2.1374
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0326
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-random sign pattern (18 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.1004
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5000
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.3704
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1706
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.583 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=8.23e-5 · top T=3.00h (18.3%) · top-3 cover 49.1%1 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEcumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)1.8e-41.4e-49.1e-54.5e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 8.68e-6 · 0.9% energyperiod 24.0 · power 8.68e-6 · 0.9% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.07e-4 · 10.9% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.07e-4 · 10.9% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.50e-4 · 15.2% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.50e-4 · 15.2% energyperiod 6.0 · power 8.31e-6 · 0.8% energyperiod 6.0 · power 8.31e-6 · 0.8% energyperiod 4.8 · power 5.29e-5 · 5.4% energyperiod 4.8 · power 5.29e-5 · 5.4% energyperiod 4.0 · power 3.56e-5 · 3.6% energyperiod 4.0 · power 3.56e-5 · 3.6% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.54e-4 · 15.5% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.54e-4 · 15.5% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.81e-4 · 18.3% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.81e-4 · 18.3% energyperiod 2.7 · power 3.51e-7 · 0.0% energyperiod 2.7 · power 3.51e-7 · 0.0% energyperiod 2.4 · power 8.15e-5 · 8.3% energyperiod 2.4 · power 8.15e-5 · 8.3% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.25e-4 · 12.6% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.25e-4 · 12.6% energyperiod 2.0 · power 8.32e-5 · 8.4% energyperiod 2.0 · power 8.32e-5 · 8.4% energy50% by T=3.4h#1 dominantT=3.00h#2T=3.43h#3T=8.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 3.00h (freq 0.333) · concentrates 18.3% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 9.876e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5257847 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.000% per barparametric μ/σ² -7.48× · μ -0.000% · σ 0.04%
μ per barmean
-0.000%
σ per barvol
0.04%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-7.48×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.00%0.02%0.05%0.07%0.10%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -8.63400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.004
annualized -8.63
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.00%
VaR 95%5%
0.01%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.01%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.0%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -592% · APY -100% · Sharpe -6.66σ ann 89% · Sortino -5.10 · n 4999
-799%-618%-436%-255%-74%107%-592.2%APR (simple)-99.8%APY (compound)89.0%Ann. vol σ-665.5%Sharpe (ann)-510.3%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.001% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.0160.0160.0170.0170.0180.018t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 14:50:37 UTC
Snapshot age
1.2s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 14:50:39 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
1167dc0d877bcf60d690c80c98ac1789b023b95fd2065dab548bf01b02fc80e2 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany94.4¢HL PREDSpain90.0¢HL PREDUruguay66.7¢POLYMARKETWill Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?1¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$63,859HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,656.2HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$59.93

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$4.33K
bid $1.13K · ask $3.20K
Mid price
0.016832
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
34.5bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.030
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.476
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-resolv/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.01686720.53bp0.0168823FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.01694768.58bp0.01702911FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.017070141.12bp0.01724820PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.01678130.21bp0.0167785FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.01669680.99bp0.01662913FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.016592142.67bp0.01646020PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.250e-5
0.00125% / hr
Annualised APR
10.958%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
33.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
33.3d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-10.958%33.3d333.3d
SHORTRECEIVE10.958%33.3d333.3d

/api/asset/hl-resolv/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$4.27M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-resolv/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ ASK-LEAN · -0.165 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
11 / 13
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$1.72M
real volume
Sell weight
$2.40M
real volume
Net delta
$679.67K
sellers net
Imbalance
-16.54%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
16.5%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-resolv/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 5 found · deepest 3.05% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-14 13:00:00Z1.0h0.017321→0.0167923.054%2
#22026-06-14 04:00:00Z3.0h0.017088→0.0166672.464%4
#32026-06-13 23:00:00Z2.0h0.017173→0.0169541.275%3

/api/asset/hl-resolv/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
88.98%
σ per bar = 0.000388
Mean return (annualised)
-592.20%
μ per bar = -0.000001
Sharpe (rf=0)
-6.66
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
3.50%
peak 0.02 → trough 0.02 over 2688 bars

/api/asset/hl-resolv/risk · same metrics, JSON