HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

REZ

REZ-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-rez · fresh · feed 3s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▲ 2.35%
realized vol (ann.)
184.55%
max drawdown
6.87%
sharpe
-68.53
ulcer index
3.97%
RMS drawdown
pain index
3.24%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.06%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-3185.05
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
6.43%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.89
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-1966.40
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.89
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
2.35%
flow lean
—
carry
shorts_pay
-82.84%
signalLONGconfidence 44%suggested side: BUY
  • 24h change +2.35%
  • funding: shorts pay — perp longs get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 18.3bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-rez/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH3.2s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.003
24h Δ · live
2.35%
24h vol · live
$0.4M
REZ · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.0032 · σ=0.0001 · range [0.0032, 0.0035] · R²=0.376▲ RISING +2.67%σ NORMAL 2.37%LAST 0.00330.00350.00340.00330.00320.0032μ = 0.0032max 0.0035min 0.0032dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.38μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.00
Funding direction · live
Long fee 49.7%Short fee 50.3%SHORT FEE50.3%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.02% (99.98pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 1.000 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
49.7%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
50.3%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding -0.009456% · shorts pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=107,793,446 · μ=4311737.8 · σ=6328591.9 · CV=1.47BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=2105,918,94611,837,89317,756,83923,675,785μ = 431173823,675,78550%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 23675785 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
3.2s
$mark $
$0.0033
$mid $
$0.0033
◉prev-day close
$0.0032
Δ24h Δ %
+2.350%
$24h vol $
$358.23k
◐open interest $
$662.91k
%funding (1h)
-0.009456%
%funding (yr)
-82.84%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.0032 · σ=0.0001 · range [0.0032, 0.0035] · R²=0.376▲ RISING +2.67%σ NORMAL 2.37%LAST 0.00330.00350.00340.00330.00320.0032μ = 0.0032max 0.0035min 0.0032dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.38μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.0033 · 24h 2.35% · range $[0.0032, 0.0035]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 12 · down 13 (48% up) · range [0.0031, 0.0035] · σ=0.0001 · CV=0.02 · bodyµ=45%BULLISH +2.41%CLOSE 0.0033 vs OPEN 0.0032 (+2.41%)&#9650; CLOSE 0.00330.00350.00340.00330.00320.0031μ close = 0.0032O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-0.25%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-0.25%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (+0.13%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (+0.13%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (+0.44%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (+0.44%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (+0.03%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (+0.03%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-0.06%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-0.06%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (+0.44%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (+0.44%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-0.03%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-0.03%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-0.40%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-0.40%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (+0.41%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (+0.41%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-0.75%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-0.75%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-0.16%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-0.16%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-0.06%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-0.06%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (+0.22%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (+0.22%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-0.06%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-0.06%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (+0.00%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (+0.00%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-0.72%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-0.72%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (+0.13%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (+0.13%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (+1.23%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (+1.23%)4.7%O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (+4.75%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (+4.75%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-1.97%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-1.97%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (+2.80%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (+2.80%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (+2.13%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (+2.13%)O0.003 H0.004 L0.003 C0.003 (-2.51%)O0.003 H0.004 L0.003 C0.003 (-2.51%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-1.99%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-1.99%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-0.70%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-0.70%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=107,793,446 · μ=4311737.8 · σ=6328591.9 · CV=1.47BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=2105,918,94611,837,89317,756,83923,675,785μ = 4311738435,723 · 1.8% peak435,723 · 1.8% peak11,791,711 · 49.8% peak11,791,711 · 49.8% peak278,681 · 1.2% peak278,681 · 1.2% peak797,469 · 3.4% peak797,469 · 3.4% peak693,663 · 2.9% peak693,663 · 2.9% peak8,339,151 · 35.2% peak8,339,151 · 35.2% peak701,521 · 3.0% peak701,521 · 3.0% peak1,171,078 · 4.9% peak1,171,078 · 4.9% peak765,412 · 3.2% peak765,412 · 3.2% peak1,584,224 · 6.7% peak1,584,224 · 6.7% peak691,361 · 2.9% peak691,361 · 2.9% peak2,227,029 · 9.4% peak2,227,029 · 9.4% peak637,196 · 2.7% peak637,196 · 2.7% peak526,073 · 2.2% peak526,073 · 2.2% peak803,990 · 3.4% peak803,990 · 3.4% peak728,682 · 3.1% peak728,682 · 3.1% peak593,015 · 2.5% peak593,015 · 2.5% peak6,250,053 · 26.4% peak6,250,053 · 26.4% peak3,369,267 · 14.2% peak3,369,267 · 14.2% peak5,354,701 · 22.6% peak5,354,701 · 22.6% peak15,160,203 · 64.0% peak15,160,203 · 64.0% peak18,136,734 · 76.6% peak18,136,734 · 76.6% peak23,675,78523,675,785 · 100.0% peak23,675,785 · 100.0% peak1,910,952 · 8.1% peak1,910,952 · 8.1% peak1,169,772 · 4.9% peak1,169,772 · 4.9% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 107793446 · peak 23675785 · CV 1.47

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=0.0010 · σ=0.0141 · skew=0.90 (right-skewed) · kurt=1.52 (leptokurtic (fat tails))97520 3-210.83bpbin -210.83bp · n=3 · 33.3% peakbin -210.83bp · n=3 · 33.3% peak-152.70bp 3-94.56bpbin -94.56bp · n=3 · 33.3% peakbin -94.56bp · n=3 · 33.3% peak 4-36.43bpbin -36.43bp · n=4 · 44.4% peakbin -36.43bp · n=4 · 44.4% peak 921.70bpbin 21.70bp · n=9 · 100.0% peakbin 21.70bp · n=9 · 100.0% peak 179.83bpbin 79.83bp · n=1 · 11.1% peakbin 79.83bp · n=1 · 11.1% peak 1137.96bpbin 137.96bp · n=1 · 11.1% peakbin 137.96bp · n=1 · 11.1% peak 1196.09bpbin 196.09bp · n=1 · 11.1% peakbin 196.09bp · n=1 · 11.1% peak 1254.22bpbin 254.22bp · n=1 · 11.1% peakbin 254.22bp · n=1 · 11.1% peak312.35bp370.48bp 1428.61bpbin 428.61bp · n=1 · 11.1% peakbin 428.61bp · n=1 · 11.1% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 12 · negative 11
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=0.98 · kurt=1.84 · near 16 / mid 8 / far 0 · OLS slope=0.97 intercept=-0.00APPROXIMATELY NORMALMILDLY HEAVY UPPERLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.0033
Mid price
$0.0033
24h change
+2.35%
Mark–mid spread
0.00 bps
Prev-day close
$0.0032

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25STRONGLY RIGHT-SKEWED (G₁=1.34)
μ MEAN0.0032$95% CI: [0.0032$, 0.0033$]
σ STD DEV0.0001$σ² = 0.000×10⁻⁴ · CV = 2.37%
med MEDIAN0.0032$Q₁ 0.0032$ · Q₃ 0.0033$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0003$ · IQR 0.0001$ (1.349σ→0.0001$)
min 0.0032$Q₁ 0.0032$med 0.0032$Q₃ 0.0033$max 0.0035$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁1.340right-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂0.669mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.41
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 1.33
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.81
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDEXCEPTIONAL EDGE · SR=6.78
μᵣ MEAN / h+0.109808%drift is positive per h · |μ|/σ = 0.072
σᵣ STD / h1.515506%σ²ᵣ = 2.297×10⁻⁴ · CV = 13.80×
σ ANNUALISED141.84%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 1.516%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)6.78excellent · top-decile
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)8.16strong downside-adjusted
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)100.00exceptional DD control
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁1.05right-skewed · heavy positive tail
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂2.59leptokurtic · fat tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 1.20
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown control exceptionalCR = 100.00
EXPECTED EDGE+961.92%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKHIGH · 95% VaR 2.22%
VaR₉₅ (h)2.216%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)2.366%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)2.327%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN5.33%3h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−2.216%VaR₉₉−2.366%ES₉₅−2.327%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEsignificant drawdown · 3h duration
PEAK0.35$
−5.33% drawdown over 3h
0.33$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSthin tails · ES ≈ VaR|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.05× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONuniform tailratio = 1.07× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONsignificant drawdownrecovery needed: +5.63% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
52.2 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.562 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.0034
Bollinger MA
$0.0032
Bollinger lower
$0.0031

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: INDETERMINATE · weak signal at n=24
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.015within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.089lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.600persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT+3.721significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]persistent · H = 0.600
H = 0.600PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.015k=2-0.089k=3+0.080k=4-0.084k=5-0.2910+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=3.72)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONINDETERMINATE · weak signal at n=24from Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.21moderate · 1-step ahead inferrable|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=3.72)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$358.23k
Open interest (USD)
$662.91k
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.54x
1h funding
-0.009456%
Funding (annualised)
-82.84%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
4.781× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
2.391× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
1.195×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 4.58% · worst -2.40% · typical |Δ| 0.96%MILD BULLISH +2.64%BEST+4.58%07hWORST-2.40%12hTYPICAL |Δ|0.96%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+2.64%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 3down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +0.65% · Σ +5.17%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.23% · Σ -1.85%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.09% · Σ -0.69%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +2.64%+8.11%-0.76%0.22% · 14h0.22% · 14h0.22%14h0.50% · 15h0.50% · 15h0.50%15h0.19% · 16h0.19% · 16h0.19%16h-0.19% · 17h-0.19% · 17h-0.19%17h0.53% · 18h0.53% · 18h0.53%18h-0.06% · 19h-0.06% · 19h-0.06%19h-0.37% · 20h-0.37% · 20h-0.37%20h0.31% · 21h0.31% · 21h0.31%21h-0.90% · 22h-0.90% · 22h-0.90%22h-0.19% · 23h-0.19% · 23h-0.19%23h0.22% · 00h0.22% · 00h0.22%00h0.06% · 01h0.06% · 01h0.06%01h-0.09% · 02h-0.09% · 02h-0.09%02h0.00% · 03h0.00% · 03h·03h-0.98% · 04h-0.98% · 04h-0.98%04h0.09% · 05h0.09% · 05h0.09%05h1.29% · 06h1.29% · 06h1.29%06h4.58% · 07h4.58% · 07h4.58%07h★ BEST-1.99% · 08h-1.99% · 08h-1.99%08h2.82% · 09h2.82% · 09h2.82%09h2.08% · 10h2.08% · 10h2.08%10h-2.26% · 11h-2.26% · 11h-2.26%11h-2.40% · 12h-2.40% · 12h-2.40%12h▼ WORST-0.82% · 13h-0.82% · 13h-0.82%13hTIME PATTERNAsia-led (+5.17%)RUNSup max 3 · down max 3BREADTH50% up · 46% down · 4% flat
12 up bars · 11 down · best 4.58% · worst -2.40% · typical |Δ| 0.964%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsPROFITABLE +2.40%FINAL+2.40%MAX DD-5.39%RECOVERYONGOING · 3 barsMAX RUN-UP+8.23%UNDERWATER17/25 (68%)STREAK↘ 3EQUITY CURVE · end 1.0240 · peak 1.0823 · range [0.9923, 1.0823]1.08230.9923break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0823UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -5.39% · significant0%-5.39%▼ TROUGH -5.39%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 4 total#1 -5.39%bar 23-25 · 3 bars · ONGOING#2 -2.00%bar 7-18 · 12 bars · recovered#3 -1.99%bar 20-20 · 1 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYsignificant (max -5.39%)RECOVERYongoing · 3 barsTIME UNDER WATER68% of session · 17/25 bars
final equity 1.0240 (2.40%) · max DD -5.39% · time-under-water 17/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +10 / −9 (53% positive) · μ=4.33 · σ=33.67MIXED EDGELAST -17.35 (-0.64σ vs μ)64.0832.040.00-32.04-64.08μ = 4.3364.0864.0825.0425.0418.8218.82-21.07-21.07-21.11-21.11-35.22-35.22-30.22-30.22-21.21-21.21-35.77-35.77-36.08-36.08-24.90-24.908.108.1038.5338.5320.4820.4837.1337.1361.0061.0037.4737.4714.4614.46-17.35-17.35v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -17.352 · range [-36.08, 64.08] · μ 4.326 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=110.1727 · σ=94.6925 · range [27.0388, 285.9636] · R²=0.756▲ RISING +699.05%σ EXTREME 85.95%LAST 216.0532285.9636221.2324156.501291.770027.0388μ = 110.1727max 285.9636min 27.0388dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.76μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 216.05% · range [27.04%, 285.96%] · μ 110.17% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +4 / −15 (21% positive) · μ=-0.235 · σ=0.241MEAN-REVERSIONLAST 0.108 (+1.42σ vs μ)0.5800.2900.000-0.290-0.580μ = -0.235-0.493-0.493-0.155-0.155-0.459-0.459-0.365-0.365-0.284-0.284-0.476-0.476-0.352-0.352-0.246-0.2460.1470.147-0.033-0.033-0.228-0.2280.0310.0310.2520.252-0.227-0.227-0.455-0.455-0.580-0.580-0.460-0.460-0.185-0.1850.1080.108v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 0.108 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
2 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence2 reject·4 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀**

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
11.0832
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0039
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
3.4183
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6383
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.6548
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4596
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
-0.2045
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.8379
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (12 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.4650
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0495
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-0.2820
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7780
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.914 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=2.29e-4 · top T=8.00h (13.7%) · top-3 cover 39.0%WHITE NOISE · no dominant cyclecumulative energy ↗ (0 bins above 2× noise)3.8e-42.8e-41.9e-49.4e-50.0e+0μ noise floorperiod 24.0 · power 1.29e-4 · 4.7% energyperiod 24.0 · power 1.29e-4 · 4.7% energyperiod 12.0 · power 3.48e-4 · 12.7% energyperiod 12.0 · power 3.48e-4 · 12.7% energyperiod 8.0 · power 3.77e-4 · 13.7% energyperiod 8.0 · power 3.77e-4 · 13.7% energyperiod 6.0 · power 6.73e-5 · 2.5% energyperiod 6.0 · power 6.73e-5 · 2.5% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.23e-4 · 4.5% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.23e-4 · 4.5% energyperiod 4.0 · power 2.98e-4 · 10.8% energyperiod 4.0 · power 2.98e-4 · 10.8% energyperiod 3.4 · power 3.45e-4 · 12.6% energyperiod 3.4 · power 3.45e-4 · 12.6% energyperiod 3.0 · power 3.02e-4 · 11.0% energyperiod 3.0 · power 3.02e-4 · 11.0% energyperiod 2.7 · power 2.06e-4 · 7.5% energyperiod 2.7 · power 2.06e-4 · 7.5% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.83e-4 · 6.7% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.83e-4 · 6.7% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.60e-4 · 5.8% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.60e-4 · 5.8% energyperiod 2.0 · power 2.08e-4 · 7.6% energyperiod 2.0 · power 2.08e-4 · 7.6% energy50% by T=3.4h#1 dominantT=8.00h#2T=12.00h#3T=3.43hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 8.00h (freq 0.125) · concentrates 13.7% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 2.745e-3

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5257847 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
f★ empirical 8.00× · g(f★) 0.004%/barparametric μ/σ² 11.97× · μ 0.001% · σ 0.08%
μ per barmean
0.001%
σ per barvol
0.08%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
8.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
11.97×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
4.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
2.00×
industry default — survives model error
0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 2.99× leverage
Median CAGR/bar 0.002% · annualized Sharpe 24.80400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 2.99× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
0.011
annualized 24.80
μ per barafter L
0.003%
σ per barafter L
0.23%
VaR 95%5%
0.27%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.50%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.5%
0.88×0.94×1.00×1.07×1.13×1.20×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR 1000% · APY 1000% · Sharpe 21.34σ ann 178% · Sortino 16.33 · n 4999 · ⚠ capped (n=4999 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
0%512%1024%1536%2049%2561%1000.0%APR (simple)1000.0%APY (compound)178.2%Ann. vol σ2133.9%Sharpe (ann)1632.6%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.001% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.0030.0030.0030.0030.0040.004t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 13:39:01 UTC
Snapshot age
3.2s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 13:39:04 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
115435013742d7f1920a93367dd95d5f65d4369ef66a272e24d05dee5c5cda17 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$774
bid $216 · ask $557
Depth within 50bp
$11.84K
bid $6.42K · ask $5.42K
Mid price
0.003266
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
18.4bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.062
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.052
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-rez/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.00327011.63bp0.0032713FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.00327941.11bp0.00328815FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.00328661.80bp0.00330820PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.00326114.38bp0.0032603FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.00325242.20bp0.00323916FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.00324660.07bp0.00322420PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ SHORTS PAY · longs receive
Hourly funding
-9.456e-5
-0.00946% / hr
Annualised APR
-82.895%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
4.4d
longs receive
Short: days to 1% carry
4.4d
shorts pay
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGRECEIVE82.895%4.4d44.1d
SHORTPAY-82.895%4.4d44.1d

/api/asset/hl-rez/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$107.79M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-rez/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ BID-LEAN · +0.273 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
12 / 12
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$68.35M
real volume
Sell weight
$39.01M
real volume
Net delta
$29.33M
buyers net
Imbalance
27.32%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
27.3%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-rez/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 4 found · deepest 5.33% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-14 11:00:00Z2.0h0.003452→0.0032685.330%3
#22026-06-14 08:00:00Z0ms0.003353→0.0032871.968%1
#32026-06-13 22:00:00Z2.0h0.003221→0.0031841.149%3

/api/asset/hl-rez/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
178.24%
σ per bar = 0.000777
Mean return (annualised)
3803.61%
μ per bar = 0.000007
Sharpe (rf=0)
21.34
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
6.87%
peak 0.00 → trough 0.00 over 1479 bars

/api/asset/hl-rez/risk · same metrics, JSON