HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

RSR

RSR-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-rsr · fresh · feed 3s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -0.22%
realized vol (ann.)
76.14%
max drawdown
2.44%
sharpe
-62.66
ulcer index
1.07%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.94%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.05%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-4456.86
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
2.26%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.86
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-2107.46
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.86
upside/downside
roll spread
1.2 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-0.22%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.95%
signalNEUTRALconfidence 35%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 7.3bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-rsr/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH2.5s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.001
24h Δ · live
-0.22%
24h vol · live
$0.1M
RSR · live 24h price
n=23 · μ=0.0014 · σ=0.0000 · range [0.0014, 0.0014] · R²=0.010▬ FLATσ LOW 0.76%LAST 0.00140.00140.00140.00140.00140.0014μ = 0.0014max 0.0014min 0.0014dataMA(4)OLS R²=0.01μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
23 closes · last $0.00
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.1%Short fee 51.9%SHORT FEE51.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001250% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=23 · Σ=69,857,073 · μ=3037264.0 · σ=5345648.1 · CV=1.76BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=1804,425,7748,851,54813,277,32217,703,096μ = 303726417,703,09650%h1h4h7h10h13h16h19h22#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 17703096 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
2.5s
$mark $
$0.0014
$mid $
$0.0014
◉prev-day close
$0.0014
Δ24h Δ %
-0.219%
$24h vol $
$97.08k
◐open interest $
$148.62k
%funding (1h)
0.001250%
%funding (yr)
+10.95%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=23 · μ=0.0014 · σ=0.0000 · range [0.0014, 0.0014] · R²=0.010▬ FLATσ LOW 0.76%LAST 0.00140.00140.00140.00140.00140.0014μ = 0.0014max 0.0014min 0.0014dataMA(4)OLS R²=0.01μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.0014 · 24h -0.22% · range $[0.0014, 0.0014]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=23 · up 11 · down 12 (48% up) · range [0.0014, 0.0014] · σ=0.0000 · CV=0.01 · bodyµ=54%BULLISH +0.66%CLOSE 0.0014 vs OPEN 0.0014 (+0.66%)&#9650; CLOSE 0.00140.00140.00140.00140.00140.0014μ close = 0.0014O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.66%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.66%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.94%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.94%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-0.22%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-0.22%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.00%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.00%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.00%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.00%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-0.22%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-0.22%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.00%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.00%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-0.36%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-0.36%)2.7%O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+2.68%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+2.68%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-1.27%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-1.27%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-0.78%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-0.78%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.14%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.14%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-0.36%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-0.36%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-0.14%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-0.14%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-1.15%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-1.15%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.00%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.00%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-0.50%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-0.50%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-0.14%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-0.14%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.00%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.00%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.00%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.00%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-0.57%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-0.57%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.00%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.00%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-0.36%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-0.36%)#1#4#7#10#13#16#19#22up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(4) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
23 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=23 · Σ=69,857,073 · μ=3037264.0 · σ=5345648.1 · CV=1.76BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=1804,425,7748,851,54813,277,32217,703,096μ = 30372641,487,127 · 8.4% peak1,487,127 · 8.4% peak2,042,222 · 11.5% peak2,042,222 · 11.5% peak306,454 · 1.7% peak306,454 · 1.7% peak0 · 0.0% peak0 · 0.0% peak0 · 0.0% peak0 · 0.0% peak877,899 · 5.0% peak877,899 · 5.0% peak0 · 0.0% peak0 · 0.0% peak197,909 · 1.1% peak197,909 · 1.1% peak13,897,317 · 78.5% peak13,897,317 · 78.5% peak3,857,745 · 21.8% peak3,857,745 · 21.8% peak3,852,310 · 21.8% peak3,852,310 · 21.8% peak499,428 · 2.8% peak499,428 · 2.8% peak1,078,463 · 6.1% peak1,078,463 · 6.1% peak230,193 · 1.3% peak230,193 · 1.3% peak2,810,489 · 15.9% peak2,810,489 · 15.9% peak80,645 · 0.5% peak80,645 · 0.5% peak288,882 · 1.6% peak288,882 · 1.6% peak4,164,118 · 23.5% peak4,164,118 · 23.5% peak35,698 · 0.2% peak35,698 · 0.2% peak0 · 0.0% peak0 · 0.0% peak17,703,09617,703,096 · 100.0% peak17,703,096 · 100.0% peak0 · 0.0% peak0 · 0.0% peak16,447,078 · 92.9% peak16,447,078 · 92.9% peak50%#1#4#7#10#13#16#19#22#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 69857073 · peak 17703096 · CV 1.76

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=22 · 12 bins · μ=0.0007 · σ=0.0072 · skew=0.73 (right-skewed) · kurt=1.17 (leptokurtic (fat tails))75420 3-100.97bpbin -100.97bp · n=3 · 42.9% peakbin -100.97bp · n=3 · 42.9% peak 1-72.35bpbin -72.35bp · n=1 · 14.3% peakbin -72.35bp · n=1 · 14.3% peak 2-43.74bpbin -43.74bp · n=2 · 28.6% peakbin -43.74bp · n=2 · 28.6% peak 3-15.13bpbin -15.13bp · n=3 · 42.9% peakbin -15.13bp · n=3 · 42.9% peak 713.49bpbin 13.49bp · n=7 · 100.0% peakbin 13.49bp · n=7 · 100.0% peak 142.10bpbin 42.10bp · n=1 · 14.3% peakbin 42.10bp · n=1 · 14.3% peak 370.72bpbin 70.72bp · n=3 · 42.9% peakbin 70.72bp · n=3 · 42.9% peak 199.33bpbin 99.33bp · n=1 · 14.3% peakbin 99.33bp · n=1 · 14.3% peak127.94bp156.56bp185.17bp 1213.79bpbin 213.79bp · n=1 · 14.3% peakbin 213.79bp · n=1 · 14.3% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=22 · positive 7 · negative 9
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=22 · skew=0.96 · kurt=1.81 · near 17 / mid 4 / far 1 · OLS slope=0.98 intercept=0.00MODERATE DEPARTURE · SOME OUTLIERSMILDLY HEAVY UPPERLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.0014
Mid price
$0.0014
24h change
-0.22%
Mark–mid spread
0.00 bps
Prev-day close
$0.0014

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=23STRONGLY RIGHT-SKEWED (G₁=1.01)
μ MEAN0.0014$95% CI: [0.0014$, 0.0014$]
σ STD DEV0.0000$σ² = 0.000×10⁻⁴ · CV = 0.76%
med MEDIAN0.0014$Q₁ 0.0014$ · Q₃ 0.0014$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0000$ · IQR 0.0000$ (1.349σ→0.0000$)
min 0.0014$Q₁ 0.0014$med 0.0014$Q₃ 0.0014$max 0.0014$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁1.012right-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂0.665mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.12
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 0.95
range ↔ σwide tails (range > 4σ)range / σ = 4.05
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDWEAK · SR=0.00
μᵣ MEAN / h+0.000000%drift is positive per h · |μ|/σ = 0.000
σᵣ STD / h0.765849%σ²ᵣ = 0.587×10⁻⁴ · CV = —
σ ANNUALISED71.68%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.766%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)0.00marginal edge
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)0.00downside drag
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)0.00drawdown overwhelms returns
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁1.03right-skewed · heavy positive tail
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂2.63leptokurtic · fat tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside ≈ total vol · symmetricSoR / SR = 1.04
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown drags returnsCR = 0.00
EXPECTED EDGE+0.00%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKHIGH · 95% VaR 1.12%
VaR₉₅ (h)1.124%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)1.149%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)1.143%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN3.03%7h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−1.124%VaR₉₉−1.149%ES₉₅−1.143%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 7h duration
PEAK0.14$
−3.03% drawdown over 7h
0.14$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSthin tails · ES ≈ VaR|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.02× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONuniform tailratio = 1.02× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +3.12% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
48.3 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.271 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.0014
Bollinger MA
$0.0014
Bollinger lower
$0.0014

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MARTINGALE · UNPREDICTABLE
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.163within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.168lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.700persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT+0.466fails 5% test
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]persistent · H = 0.700
H = 0.700PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.163k=2-0.168k=3+0.050k=4-0.093k=5+0.0900+1−1+0.43−0.43+ momentum (ρ > +0.43)− reversal (ρ < −0.43)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]NOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=0.47)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMARTINGALE · UNPREDICTABLEfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.56high · clear structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCENOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=0.47)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$97.08k
Open interest (USD)
$148.62k
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.65x
1h funding
0.001250%
Funding (annualised)
+10.95%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
0.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
0.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
0.000×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=22 bars · best 2.28% · worst -1.15% · typical |Δ| 0.52%MILD BULLISH +0.00%BEST+2.28%22hWORST-1.15%04hTYPICAL |Δ|0.52%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+0.00%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 1down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.21% · Σ -1.65%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.13% · Σ +0.79%US · 16-24 UTCμ +0.11% · Σ +0.86%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +0.00%+2.86%-0.22%0.87% · 15h0.87% · 15h0.87%15h-0.87% · 16h-0.87% · 16h-0.87%16h0.00% · 17h0.00% · 17h·17h0.00% · 18h0.00% · 18h·18h0.00% · 19h0.00% · 19h·19h0.00% · 20h0.00% · 20h·20h0.58% · 21h0.58% · 21h0.58%21h2.28% · 22h2.28% · 22h2.28%22h★ BEST-1.13% · 23h-1.13% · 23h-1.13%23h-0.50% · 00h-0.50% · 00h-0.50%00h0.36% · 01h0.36% · 01h0.36%01h-0.21% · 02h-0.21% · 02h-0.21%02h-0.14% · 03h-0.14% · 03h-0.14%03h-1.15% · 04h-1.15% · 04h-1.15%04h▼ WORST-0.29% · 05h-0.29% · 05h-0.29%05h0.72% · 06h0.72% · 06h0.72%06h-0.43% · 07h-0.43% · 07h-0.43%07h0.72% · 08h0.72% · 08h0.72%08h0.00% · 09h0.00% · 09h·09h0.14% · 10h0.14% · 10h0.14%10h0.00% · 11h0.00% · 11h·11h-0.94% · 12h-0.94% · 12h-0.94%12hTIME PATTERNUS-led (+0.86%)RUNSup max 2 · down max 4BREADTH32% up · 41% down · 27% flat
7 up bars · 9 down · best 2.28% · worst -1.15% · typical |Δ| 0.516%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=23 barsLOSS WITH MODERATE DD (-0.06%)FINAL-0.06%MAX DD-3.05%RECOVERYONGOING · 14 barsMAX RUN-UP+2.86%UNDERWATER20/23 (87%)STREAK↘ 1EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9994 · peak 1.0286 · range [0.9973, 1.0286]1.02860.9973break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0286UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -3.05% · moderate0%-3.05%▼ TROUGH -3.05%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 2 total#1 -3.05%bar 10-23 · 14 bars · ONGOING#2 -0.87%bar 3-8 · 6 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -3.05%)RECOVERYongoing · 14 barsTIME UNDER WATER87% of session · 20/23 bars
final equity 0.9994 (-0.06%) · max DD -3.05% · time-under-water 20/23 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 5 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=18 · +10 / −8 (56% positive) · μ=-1.14 · σ=35.93MIXED EDGELAST -2.28 (-0.03σ vs μ)55.9427.970.00-27.97-55.94μ = -1.140.000.00-41.86-41.8641.8641.8654.1954.1925.8825.8817.6317.6322.8922.8911.3511.35-55.94-55.94-55.87-55.87-49.50-49.50-30.27-30.27-36.06-36.06-9.98-9.9824.5324.5343.5643.5619.4319.43-2.28-2.28v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -2.276 · range [-55.94, 54.19] · μ -1.135 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=18 · μ=68.8692 · σ=31.8983 · range [24.2123, 121.9218] · R²=0.061▼ FALLING -2.70%σ EXTREME 46.32%LAST 55.7919121.921897.494473.067148.639724.2123μ = 68.8692max 121.9218min 24.2123dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.06μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 55.79% · range [24.21%, 121.92%] · μ 68.87% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=18 · +3 / −15 (17% positive) · μ=-0.228 · σ=0.280MEAN-REVERSIONLAST 0.001 (+0.82σ vs μ)0.8280.4140.000-0.414-0.828μ = -0.228-0.500-0.500-0.050-0.050-0.050-0.0500.1700.170-0.381-0.381-0.175-0.175-0.177-0.177-0.309-0.3090.0990.099-0.138-0.138-0.055-0.055-0.038-0.038-0.154-0.154-0.196-0.196-0.828-0.828-0.757-0.757-0.571-0.5710.0010.001v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 0.001 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀**

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
10.2192
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0060
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
1.9982
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.8505
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-2.5930
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0960
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
0.5922
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5537
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (10 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.0238
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5000
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=2

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-0.8966
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3699
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.809 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=11 bins · noise floor μ=5.60e-5 · top T=2.44h (32.6%) · top-3 cover 64.6%1 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEcumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)2.0e-41.5e-41.0e-45.0e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 22.0 · power 1.05e-5 · 1.7% energyperiod 22.0 · power 1.05e-5 · 1.7% energyperiod 11.0 · power 8.70e-5 · 14.1% energyperiod 11.0 · power 8.70e-5 · 14.1% energyperiod 7.3 · power 3.38e-6 · 0.5% energyperiod 7.3 · power 3.38e-6 · 0.5% energyperiod 5.5 · power 3.97e-5 · 6.4% energyperiod 5.5 · power 3.97e-5 · 6.4% energyperiod 4.4 · power 6.35e-5 · 10.3% energyperiod 4.4 · power 6.35e-5 · 10.3% energyperiod 3.7 · power 1.11e-4 · 17.9% energyperiod 3.7 · power 1.11e-4 · 17.9% energyperiod 3.1 · power 3.67e-5 · 6.0% energyperiod 3.1 · power 3.67e-5 · 6.0% energyperiod 2.8 · power 2.81e-5 · 4.6% energyperiod 2.8 · power 2.81e-5 · 4.6% energyperiod 2.4 · power 2.01e-4 · 32.6% energyperiod 2.4 · power 2.01e-4 · 32.6% energyperiod 2.2 · power 3.54e-5 · 5.7% energyperiod 2.2 · power 3.54e-5 · 5.7% energyperiod 2.0 · power 7.19e-7 · 0.1% energyperiod 2.0 · power 7.19e-7 · 0.1% energy50% by T=3.7h#1 dominantT=2.44h#2T=3.67h#3T=11.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.44h (freq 0.409) · concentrates 32.6% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 6.162e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5257847 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.000% per barparametric μ/σ² short edge (μ<0) · μ -0.000% · σ 0.03%
μ per barmean
-0.000%
σ per barvol
0.03%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-37.19×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.00%0.02%0.05%0.07%0.10%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -30.60400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.013
annualized -30.60
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.00%
VaR 95%5%
0.01%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.01%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.0%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -1000% · APY -100% · Sharpe -26.64σ ann 72% · Sortino -10.10 · n 4999 · ⚠ capped (n=4999 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
-3197%-2541%-1884%-1227%-571%86%-1000.0%APR (simple)-100.0%APY (compound)71.6%Ann. vol σ-2664.4%Sharpe (ann)-1010.4%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.001% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.0010.0010.0010.0010.0010.001t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 14:50:37 UTC
Snapshot age
2.5s
History points
23 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 14:50:40 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
b79f2fb69a2e45a1cde8eb1f4ae7bf1a8eb3e79b93247e21809be7079ae5a3bf · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$27.84K
bid $5.34K · ask $22.50K
Mid price
0.001365
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
29.3bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.130
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.558
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-rsr/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.00136820.21bp0.0013692FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.00137033.28bp0.0013703FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.001386156.27bp0.00143020PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.00136222.53bp0.0013612FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.00135665.62bp0.0013419FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.001313382.30bp0.00066820PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.250e-5
0.00125% / hr
Annualised APR
10.958%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
33.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
33.3d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-10.958%33.3d333.3d
SHORTRECEIVE10.958%33.3d333.3d

/api/asset/hl-rsr/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 23 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★23$69.86M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-rsr/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ BALANCED · +0.014 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
9 / 13
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$34.66M
real volume
Sell weight
$33.71M
real volume
Net delta
$959.16K
buyers net
Imbalance
1.40%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
1.4%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 23-record window./api/asset/hl-rsr/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 4 found · deepest 1.78% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-14 04:00:00Z2.0h0.001401→0.0013761.784%3
#22026-06-13 23:00:00Z2.0h0.001419→0.0013961.621%3
#32026-06-14 12:00:00Z0ms0.001392→0.0013790.934%1

/api/asset/hl-rsr/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
71.65%
σ per bar = 0.000312
Mean return (annualised)
-1908.91%
μ per bar = -0.000004
Sharpe (rf=0)
-26.64
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
2.99%
peak 0.00 → trough 0.00 over 2620 bars

/api/asset/hl-rsr/risk · same metrics, JSON