HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

SAND

SAND-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-sand · fresh · feed 2s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -1.21%
realized vol (ann.)
32.99%
max drawdown
1.05%
sharpe
-79.03
ulcer index
0.47%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.42%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.02%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-5586.20
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
0.92%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.88
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-2825.38
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.88
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-1.21%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.95%
signalSHORTconfidence 40%suggested side: SELL
  • 24h change -1.21%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 13.4bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-sand/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH2.1s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.052
24h Δ · live
-1.21%
24h vol · live
$0.1M
SAND · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.0520 · σ=0.0002 · range [0.0515, 0.0524] · R²=0.222▼ FALLING -0.88%σ LOW 0.44%LAST 0.05160.05240.05220.05200.05170.0515μ = 0.0520max 0.0524min 0.0515dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.22μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.05
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.1%Short fee 51.9%SHORT FEE51.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001250% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=1,858,158 · μ=74326.3 · σ=93919.9 · CV=1.26BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=90120,949241,898362,846483,795μ = 74326483,79550%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 483795 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
2.1s
$mark $
$0.0516
$mid $
$0.0516
◉prev-day close
$0.0522
Δ24h Δ %
-1.209%
$24h vol $
$95.23k
◐open interest $
$370.25k
%funding (1h)
0.001250%
%funding (yr)
+10.95%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.0520 · σ=0.0002 · range [0.0515, 0.0524] · R²=0.222▼ FALLING -0.88%σ LOW 0.44%LAST 0.05160.05240.05220.05200.05170.0515μ = 0.0520max 0.0524min 0.0515dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.22μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.0516 · 24h -1.21% · range $[0.0515, 0.0524]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 11 · down 14 (44% up) · range [0.0515, 0.0525] · σ=0.0002 · CV=0.00 · bodyµ=53%BEARISH -1.10%CLOSE 0.0516 vs OPEN 0.0522 (-1.10%)&#9660; CLOSE 0.05160.05250.05230.05200.05180.0515μ close = 0.0520O0.052 H0.052 L0.052 C0.052 (-0.22%)O0.052 H0.052 L0.052 C0.052 (-0.22%)O0.052 H0.052 L0.052 C0.052 (+0.20%)O0.052 H0.052 L0.052 C0.052 (+0.20%)O0.052 H0.052 L0.052 C0.052 (+0.21%)O0.052 H0.052 L0.052 C0.052 (+0.21%)O0.052 H0.052 L0.052 C0.052 (-0.51%)O0.052 H0.052 L0.052 C0.052 (-0.51%)O0.052 H0.052 L0.052 C0.052 (-0.26%)O0.052 H0.052 L0.052 C0.052 (-0.26%)O0.052 H0.052 L0.052 C0.052 (-0.26%)O0.052 H0.052 L0.052 C0.052 (-0.26%)O0.052 H0.052 L0.052 C0.052 (+0.14%)O0.052 H0.052 L0.052 C0.052 (+0.14%)O0.052 H0.052 L0.052 C0.052 (+0.13%)O0.052 H0.052 L0.052 C0.052 (+0.13%)O0.052 H0.053 L0.052 C0.052 (+0.53%)O0.052 H0.053 L0.052 C0.052 (+0.53%)O0.052 H0.052 L0.052 C0.052 (-0.64%)O0.052 H0.052 L0.052 C0.052 (-0.64%)O0.052 H0.052 L0.052 C0.052 (+0.38%)O0.052 H0.052 L0.052 C0.052 (+0.38%)O0.052 H0.052 L0.052 C0.052 (-0.31%)O0.052 H0.052 L0.052 C0.052 (-0.31%)O0.052 H0.052 L0.052 C0.052 (+0.29%)O0.052 H0.052 L0.052 C0.052 (+0.29%)O0.052 H0.052 L0.052 C0.052 (-0.25%)O0.052 H0.052 L0.052 C0.052 (-0.25%)O0.052 H0.052 L0.052 C0.052 (+0.14%)O0.052 H0.052 L0.052 C0.052 (+0.14%)O0.052 H0.052 L0.052 C0.052 (-0.86%)O0.052 H0.052 L0.052 C0.052 (-0.86%)O0.052 H0.052 L0.052 C0.052 (+0.22%)O0.052 H0.052 L0.052 C0.052 (+0.22%)O0.052 H0.052 L0.052 C0.052 (-0.55%)O0.052 H0.052 L0.052 C0.052 (-0.55%)O0.052 H0.052 L0.052 C0.052 (-0.11%)O0.052 H0.052 L0.052 C0.052 (-0.11%)O0.052 H0.052 L0.052 C0.052 (+0.21%)O0.052 H0.052 L0.052 C0.052 (+0.21%)0.9%O0.052 H0.052 L0.052 C0.052 (+0.94%)O0.052 H0.052 L0.052 C0.052 (+0.94%)O0.052 H0.052 L0.052 C0.052 (-0.44%)O0.052 H0.052 L0.052 C0.052 (-0.44%)O0.052 H0.052 L0.052 C0.052 (-0.17%)O0.052 H0.052 L0.052 C0.052 (-0.17%)O0.052 H0.052 L0.052 C0.052 (-0.21%)O0.052 H0.052 L0.052 C0.052 (-0.21%)O0.052 H0.052 L0.052 C0.052 (-0.46%)O0.052 H0.052 L0.052 C0.052 (-0.46%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=1,858,158 · μ=74326.3 · σ=93919.9 · CV=1.26BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=90120,949241,898362,846483,795μ = 7432635,536 · 7.3% peak35,536 · 7.3% peak36,441 · 7.5% peak36,441 · 7.5% peak54,716 · 11.3% peak54,716 · 11.3% peak143,832 · 29.7% peak143,832 · 29.7% peak24,747 · 5.1% peak24,747 · 5.1% peak26,210 · 5.4% peak26,210 · 5.4% peak483,795483,795 · 100.0% peak483,795 · 100.0% peak105,607 · 21.8% peak105,607 · 21.8% peak57,231 · 11.8% peak57,231 · 11.8% peak133,191 · 27.5% peak133,191 · 27.5% peak35,292 · 7.3% peak35,292 · 7.3% peak148,931 · 30.8% peak148,931 · 30.8% peak48,368 · 10.0% peak48,368 · 10.0% peak112,895 · 23.3% peak112,895 · 23.3% peak36,365 · 7.5% peak36,365 · 7.5% peak35,207 · 7.3% peak35,207 · 7.3% peak37,739 · 7.8% peak37,739 · 7.8% peak36,707 · 7.6% peak36,707 · 7.6% peak63,120 · 13.0% peak63,120 · 13.0% peak51,048 · 10.6% peak51,048 · 10.6% peak16,873 · 3.5% peak16,873 · 3.5% peak27,939 · 5.8% peak27,939 · 5.8% peak55,883 · 11.6% peak55,883 · 11.6% peak32,946 · 6.8% peak32,946 · 6.8% peak17,539 · 3.6% peak17,539 · 3.6% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 1858158 · peak 483795 · CV 1.26

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=-0.0004 · σ=0.0042 · skew=0.13 (symmetric) · kurt=-0.65 (mesokurtic)65320 1-83.38bpbin -83.38bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin -83.38bp · n=1 · 16.7% peak 1-68.19bpbin -68.19bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin -68.19bp · n=1 · 16.7% peak 2-53.00bpbin -53.00bp · n=2 · 33.3% peakbin -53.00bp · n=2 · 33.3% peak 2-37.82bpbin -37.82bp · n=2 · 33.3% peakbin -37.82bp · n=2 · 33.3% peak 6-22.63bpbin -22.63bp · n=6 · 100.0% peakbin -22.63bp · n=6 · 100.0% peak 1-7.44bpbin -7.44bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin -7.44bp · n=1 · 16.7% peak 17.75bpbin 7.75bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin 7.75bp · n=1 · 16.7% peak 522.93bpbin 22.93bp · n=5 · 83.3% peakbin 22.93bp · n=5 · 83.3% peak 338.12bpbin 38.12bp · n=3 · 50.0% peakbin 38.12bp · n=3 · 50.0% peak53.31bp 168.49bpbin 68.49bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin 68.49bp · n=1 · 16.7% peak 183.68bpbin 83.68bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin 83.68bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 11 · negative 13
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=0.16 · kurt=-0.24 · near 23 / mid 1 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.02 intercept=-0.00MATCHES NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVEDUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.0516
Mid price
$0.0516
24h change
-1.21%
Mark–mid spread
0.19 bps
Prev-day close
$0.0522

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25PLATYKURTIC · THIN TAILS (G₂=-1.01)
μ MEAN0.0520$95% CI: [0.0519$, 0.0521$]
σ STD DEV0.0002$σ² = 0.001×10⁻⁴ · CV = 0.44%
med MEDIAN0.0520$Q₁ 0.0519$ · Q₃ 0.0522$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0008$ · IQR 0.0003$ (1.349σ→0.0003$)
min 0.0515$Q₁ 0.0519$med 0.0520$Q₃ 0.0522$max 0.0524$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.267approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-1.006platykurtic · thin tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ < med · left-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.13
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 0.97
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.62
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDUNPROFITABLE · SR=-8.17
μᵣ MEAN / h-0.036970%drift is negative per h · |μ|/σ = 0.087
σᵣ STD / h0.423464%σ²ᵣ = 0.179×10⁻⁴ · CV = 11.45×
σ ANNUALISED39.63%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.423%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)-8.17negative edge
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)-8.26downside drag
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)-100.00drawdown overwhelms returns
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁0.17approximately symmetric
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂0.00mesokurtic · normal-like tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 1.01
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown > returns · adverseCR = -100.00
EXPECTED EDGE-323.86%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKELEVATED · 95% VaR 0.62%
VaR₉₅ (h)0.621%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)0.848%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)0.775%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN1.60%10h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−0.621%VaR₉₉−0.848%ES₉₅−0.775%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 10h duration
PEAK5.24$
−1.60% drawdown over 10h
5.15$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmild tail heaviness|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.25× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONmoderate extreme-tail concentrationratio = 1.37× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +1.62% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
43.1 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.135 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.0525
Bollinger MA
$0.0520
Bollinger lower
$0.0515

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.24 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.241within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.149lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.816strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-2.562significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.816
H = 0.816STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..51 SIGNIFICANT LAG · k=5
k=1-0.241k=2+0.149k=3-0.353k=4+0.101k=5 ★-0.4450+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 5% (|t|=2.56)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.24 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.87very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 5% (|t|=2.56)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$95.23k
Open interest (USD)
$370.25k
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.26x
1h funding
0.001250%
Funding (annualised)
+10.95%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
-10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
-5.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
-2.500×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 0.91% · worst -0.91% · typical |Δ| 0.35%MILD BEARISH -0.89%BEST+0.91%09hWORST-0.91%04hTYPICAL |Δ|0.35%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-0.89%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 4down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.17% · Σ -1.34%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.07% · Σ +0.58%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.02% · Σ -0.12%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -0.89%+0.56%-1.04%0.26% · 14h0.26% · 14h0.26%14h0.17% · 15h0.17% · 15h0.17%15h-0.51% · 16h-0.51% · 16h-0.51%16h-0.18% · 17h-0.18% · 17h-0.18%17h-0.24% · 18h-0.24% · 18h-0.24%18h0.26% · 19h0.26% · 19h0.26%19h0.16% · 20h0.16% · 20h0.16%20h0.65% · 21h0.65% · 21h0.65%21h-0.64% · 22h-0.64% · 22h-0.64%22h0.37% · 23h0.37% · 23h0.37%23h-0.18% · 00h-0.18% · 00h-0.18%00h0.36% · 01h0.36% · 01h0.36%01h-0.29% · 02h-0.29% · 02h-0.29%02h0.11% · 03h0.11% · 03h0.11%03h-0.91% · 04h-0.91% · 04h-0.91%04h▼ WORST0.22% · 05h0.22% · 05h0.22%05h-0.40% · 06h-0.40% · 06h-0.40%06h-0.26% · 07h-0.26% · 07h-0.26%07h0.31% · 08h0.31% · 08h0.31%08h0.91% · 09h0.91% · 09h0.91%09h★ BEST-0.31% · 10h-0.31% · 10h-0.31%10h-0.15% · 11h-0.15% · 11h-0.15%11h-0.15% · 12h-0.15% · 12h-0.15%12h-0.46% · 13h-0.46% · 13h-0.46%13hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+0.58%)RUNSup max 3 · down max 4BREADTH46% up · 54% down
11 up bars · 13 down · best 0.91% · worst -0.91% · typical |Δ| 0.353%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS · SHALLOW DD (-0.90%)FINAL-0.90%MAX DD-1.61%RECOVERYONGOING · 16 barsMAX RUN-UP+0.56%UNDERWATER21/25 (84%)STREAK↘ 4EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9910 · peak 1.0056 · range [0.9895, 1.0056]1.00560.9895break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0056UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -1.61% · moderate0%-1.61%▼ TROUGH -1.61%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 2 total#1 -1.61%bar 10-25 · 16 bars · ONGOING#2 -0.93%bar 4-8 · 5 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -1.61%)RECOVERYongoing · 16 barsTIME UNDER WATER84% of session · 21/25 bars
final equity 0.9910 (-0.90%) · max DD -1.61% · time-under-water 21/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +10 / −9 (53% positive) · μ=-4.67 · σ=21.50MIXED EDGELAST 4.85 (+0.44σ vs μ)59.2729.640.00-29.64-59.27μ = -4.67-12.24-12.24-17.69-17.695.285.280.530.5319.1319.1321.7121.7124.6724.678.838.83-10.23-10.23-17.08-17.08-23.35-23.35-29.80-29.80-59.27-59.27-31.22-31.22-3.00-3.0014.9214.923.523.5211.7311.734.854.85v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 4.849 · range [-59.27, 24.67] · μ -4.669 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=42.6893 · σ=6.7050 · range [28.3433, 59.5969] · R²=0.416▲ RISING +58.65%σ EXTREME 15.71%LAST 47.286659.596951.783543.970136.156728.3433μ = 42.6893max 59.5969min 28.3433dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.42μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 47.29% · range [28.34%, 59.60%] · μ 42.69% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +4 / −15 (21% positive) · μ=-0.321 · σ=0.335MEAN-REVERSIONLAST 0.106 (+1.28σ vs μ)0.7780.3890.000-0.389-0.778μ = -0.321-0.010-0.010-0.028-0.0280.2530.253-0.284-0.284-0.578-0.578-0.621-0.621-0.672-0.672-0.737-0.737-0.625-0.625-0.320-0.320-0.566-0.566-0.603-0.603-0.778-0.778-0.558-0.5580.0090.009-0.089-0.0890.0460.046-0.051-0.0510.1060.106v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 0.106 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
0.1128
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.9452
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
12.7215
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0260
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zoneserial dependence detected
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-2.2454
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1955
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
0.4555
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6487
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (14 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.3580
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0953
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-0.7190
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4721
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.781 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=2.14e-5 · top T=2.00h (39.2%) · top-3 cover 68.8%2 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)1.0e-47.5e-55.0e-52.5e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 8.43e-7 · 0.3% energyperiod 24.0 · power 8.43e-7 · 0.3% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.23e-5 · 8.7% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.23e-5 · 8.7% energyperiod 8.0 · power 5.15e-6 · 2.0% energyperiod 8.0 · power 5.15e-6 · 2.0% energyperiod 6.0 · power 3.18e-5 · 12.4% energyperiod 6.0 · power 3.18e-5 · 12.4% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.55e-5 · 6.0% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.55e-5 · 6.0% energyperiod 4.0 · power 4.66e-6 · 1.8% energyperiod 4.0 · power 4.66e-6 · 1.8% energyperiod 3.4 · power 4.21e-6 · 1.6% energyperiod 3.4 · power 4.21e-6 · 1.6% energyperiod 3.0 · power 4.42e-5 · 17.2% energyperiod 3.0 · power 4.42e-5 · 17.2% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.07e-6 · 0.4% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.07e-6 · 0.4% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.57e-6 · 0.6% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.57e-6 · 0.6% energyperiod 2.2 · power 2.48e-5 · 9.7% energyperiod 2.2 · power 2.48e-5 · 9.7% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.01e-4 · 39.2% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.01e-4 · 39.2% energy50% by T=3.0h#1 dominantT=2.00h#2T=3.00h#3T=6.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.00h (freq 0.500) · concentrates 39.2% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 2.565e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5257847 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.000% per barparametric μ/σ² short edge (μ<0) · μ -0.000% · σ 0.01%
μ per barmean
-0.000%
σ per barvol
0.01%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-24.69×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.00%0.02%0.05%0.07%0.10%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -6.58400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.003
annualized -6.58
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.00%
VaR 95%5%
0.00%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.00%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.0%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -249% · APY -92% · Sharpe -7.83σ ann 32% · Sortino -5.95 · n 4999
-940%-744%-549%-353%-158%38%-248.6%APR (simple)-92.1%APY (compound)31.7%Ann. vol σ-783.4%Sharpe (ann)-595.2%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.0490.0500.0510.0520.0530.054t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 13:39:29 UTC
Snapshot age
2.1s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 13:39:31 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
08edba1d5df37cd9c340d954b0d85b0f10e4d8cf774eecaac8a506cf853da31f · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$4.50K
bid $1.07K · ask $3.43K
Depth within 50bp
$23.48K
bid $8.04K · ask $15.44K
Mid price
0.051562
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
14.4bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.263
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.523
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-sand/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.0515997.18bp0.0515991FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.05161410.01bp0.0516506FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.052505182.88bp0.05374420PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.0515247.44bp0.0515233FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.05137636.03bp0.05113412FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.050875133.22bp0.05028220PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.250e-5
0.00125% / hr
Annualised APR
10.958%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
33.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
33.3d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-10.958%33.3d333.3d
SHORTRECEIVE10.958%33.3d333.3d

/api/asset/hl-sand/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$1.86M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-sand/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ BID-LEAN · +0.057 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
11 / 13
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$963.48K
real volume
Sell weight
$859.15K
real volume
Net delta
$104.33K
buyers net
Imbalance
5.72%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
5.7%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-sand/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 4 found · deepest 1.52% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-14 04:00:00Z3.0h0.052326→0.0515331.515%4
#22026-06-14 12:00:00Z1.0h0.052168→0.0516141.062%2
#32026-06-13 16:00:00Z2.0h0.052295→0.0518080.931%3

/api/asset/hl-sand/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
31.73%
σ per bar = 0.000138
Mean return (annualised)
-248.57%
μ per bar = -0.000000
Sharpe (rf=0)
-7.83
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
1.31%
peak 0.05 → trough 0.05 over 2176 bars

/api/asset/hl-sand/risk · same metrics, JSON