HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

SKR

SKR-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-skr · fresh · feed 1s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▲ 25.92%
realized vol (ann.)
358.93%
max drawdown
4.11%
sharpe
108.83
ulcer index
1.18%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.91%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.08%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
32965.72
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
3.05%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
1.20
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
12797.66
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.20
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
25.92%
flow lean
—
carry
shorts_pay
-1484.23%
signalLONGconfidence 79%suggested side: BUY
  • 24h change +25.92%
  • funding: shorts pay — perp longs get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 157.4bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-skr/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH1.1s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.011
24h Δ · live
25.92%
24h vol · live
$0.4M
SKR · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.0093 · σ=0.0007 · range [0.0088, 0.0111] · R²=0.638▲ RISING +25.13%σ HIGH 7.27%LAST 0.01110.01110.01060.01000.00940.0088μ = 0.0093max 0.0111min 0.0088dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.64μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.01
Funding direction · live
Long fee 50.0%Short fee 50.0%SHORT FEE50.0%
Σ = 0.3%
Σ-sides total = 0.34% (99.66pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 1.000 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
50.0%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
50.0%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding -0.169433% · shorts pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=39,808,122 · μ=1592324.9 · σ=3144743.0 · CV=1.97BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=2303,523,6947,047,38710,571,08114,094,774μ = 159232514,094,77450%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 14094774 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
1.1s
$mark $
$0.0111
$mid $
$0.0111
◉prev-day close
$0.0088
Δ24h Δ %
+25.919%
$24h vol $
$397.21k
◐open interest $
$376.97k
%funding (1h)
-0.169433%
%funding (yr)
-1484.23%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.0093 · σ=0.0007 · range [0.0088, 0.0111] · R²=0.638▲ RISING +25.13%σ HIGH 7.27%LAST 0.01110.01110.01060.01000.00940.0088μ = 0.0093max 0.0111min 0.0088dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.64μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.0111 · 24h 25.92% · range $[0.0088, 0.0111]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 15 · down 10 (60% up) · range [0.0088, 0.0113] · σ=0.0007 · CV=0.07 · bodyµ=47%BULLISH +26.07%CLOSE 0.0111 vs OPEN 0.0088 (+26.07%)&#9650; CLOSE 0.01110.01130.01070.01010.00940.0088μ close = 0.0093O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (+0.75%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (+0.75%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (-0.28%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (-0.28%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (+0.15%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (+0.15%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (-0.02%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (-0.02%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (+0.69%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (+0.69%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (-1.04%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (-1.04%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (+0.21%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (+0.21%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (-0.43%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (-0.43%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (+0.09%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (+0.09%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (-0.39%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (-0.39%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (+1.05%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (+1.05%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (-0.27%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (-0.27%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (-0.34%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (-0.34%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (+0.98%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (+0.98%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (+2.40%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (+2.40%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (-0.21%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (-0.21%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (+1.29%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (+1.29%)O0.009 H0.010 L0.009 C0.009 (+1.32%)O0.009 H0.010 L0.009 C0.009 (+1.32%)O0.009 H0.010 L0.009 C0.010 (+2.15%)O0.009 H0.010 L0.009 C0.010 (+2.15%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (-0.74%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (-0.74%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.009 C0.009 (-0.91%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.009 C0.009 (-0.91%)O0.009 H0.010 L0.009 C0.010 (+1.79%)O0.009 H0.010 L0.009 C0.010 (+1.79%)10.4%O0.010 H0.011 L0.010 C0.011 (+10.39%)O0.010 H0.011 L0.010 C0.011 (+10.39%)O0.011 H0.011 L0.011 C0.011 (+3.93%)O0.011 H0.011 L0.011 C0.011 (+3.93%)O0.011 H0.011 L0.011 C0.011 (+0.36%)O0.011 H0.011 L0.011 C0.011 (+0.36%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=39,808,122 · μ=1592324.9 · σ=3144743.0 · CV=1.97BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=2303,523,6947,047,38710,571,08114,094,774μ = 1592325392,809 · 2.8% peak392,809 · 2.8% peak1,166,778 · 8.3% peak1,166,778 · 8.3% peak123,658 · 0.9% peak123,658 · 0.9% peak463,645 · 3.3% peak463,645 · 3.3% peak2,589,941 · 18.4% peak2,589,941 · 18.4% peak326,625 · 2.3% peak326,625 · 2.3% peak363,987 · 2.6% peak363,987 · 2.6% peak245,902 · 1.7% peak245,902 · 1.7% peak577,373 · 4.1% peak577,373 · 4.1% peak359,086 · 2.5% peak359,086 · 2.5% peak439,850 · 3.1% peak439,850 · 3.1% peak316,656 · 2.2% peak316,656 · 2.2% peak272,156 · 1.9% peak272,156 · 1.9% peak638,352 · 4.5% peak638,352 · 4.5% peak895,535 · 6.4% peak895,535 · 6.4% peak763,020 · 5.4% peak763,020 · 5.4% peak1,482,506 · 10.5% peak1,482,506 · 10.5% peak1,514,518 · 10.7% peak1,514,518 · 10.7% peak2,015,911 · 14.3% peak2,015,911 · 14.3% peak476,913 · 3.4% peak476,913 · 3.4% peak507,718 · 3.6% peak507,718 · 3.6% peak685,873 · 4.9% peak685,873 · 4.9% peak9,009,837 · 63.9% peak9,009,837 · 63.9% peak14,094,77414,094,774 · 100.0% peak14,094,774 · 100.0% peak84,699 · 0.6% peak84,699 · 0.6% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 39808122 · peak 14094774 · CV 1.97

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=0.0085 · σ=0.0210 · skew=2.77 (right-skewed) · kurt=8.51 (leptokurtic (fat tails))86420 6-80.56bpbin -80.56bp · n=6 · 75.0% peakbin -80.56bp · n=6 · 75.0% peak 811.69bpbin 11.69bp · n=8 · 100.0% peakbin 11.69bp · n=8 · 100.0% peak 5103.94bpbin 103.94bp · n=5 · 62.5% peakbin 103.94bp · n=5 · 62.5% peak 3196.18bpbin 196.18bp · n=3 · 37.5% peakbin 196.18bp · n=3 · 37.5% peak288.43bp 1380.68bpbin 380.68bp · n=1 · 12.5% peakbin 380.68bp · n=1 · 12.5% peak472.93bp565.17bp657.42bp749.67bp841.92bp 1934.16bpbin 934.16bp · n=1 · 12.5% peakbin 934.16bp · n=1 · 12.5% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 15 · negative 9
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=2.78 · kurt=8.41 · near 9 / mid 13 / far 2 · OLS slope=0.84 intercept=-0.00LEPTOKURTIC — FAT TAILSMILDLY HEAVY UPPERTHIN LOWER TAIL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σΔ=+2.00σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.0111
Mid price
$0.0111
24h change
+25.92%
Mark–mid spread
8.98 bps
Prev-day close
$0.0088

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25STRONGLY RIGHT-SKEWED (G₁=1.65)
μ MEAN0.0093$95% CI: [0.0091$, 0.0096$]
σ STD DEV0.0007$σ² = 0.005×10⁻⁴ · CV = 7.27%
med MEDIAN0.0090$Q₁ 0.0089$ · Q₃ 0.0095$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0023$ · IQR 0.0006$ (1.349σ→0.0009$)
min 0.0088$Q₁ 0.0089$med 0.0090$Q₃ 0.0095$max 0.0111$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁1.647right-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂1.576leptokurtic · fat tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.55
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 1.54
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.40
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDEXCEPTIONAL EDGE · SR=38.99
μᵣ MEAN / h+0.934161%drift is positive per h · |μ|/σ = 0.417
σᵣ STD / h2.242319%σ²ᵣ = 5.028×10⁻⁴ · CV = 2.40×
σ ANNUALISED209.87%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 2.242%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)38.99excellent · top-decile
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)100.00strong downside-adjusted
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)100.00exceptional DD control
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁2.97right-skewed · heavy positive tail
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂10.77leptokurtic · fat tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 2.56
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown control exceptionalCR = 100.00
EXPECTED EDGE+8183.25%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKELEVATED · 95% VaR 0.55%
VaR₉₅ (h)0.554%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)1.104%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)0.913%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN1.77%2h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−0.554%VaR₉₉−1.104%ES₉₅−0.913%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 2h duration
PEAK0.97$
−1.77% drawdown over 2h
0.95$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmoderate fat tail|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.65× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONextreme-tail dominated · severe outliersratio = 1.99× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +1.80% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
89.8 · overbought
Bollinger %B
1.091 · above upper band
Bollinger upper
$0.0109
Bollinger MA
$0.0094
Bollinger lower
$0.0080

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: TRENDING · variance ratio > 1
ρ(1) AUTOCORR+0.349within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.164lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.847strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT+6.363significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.847
H = 0.847STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1+0.349k=2-0.164k=3-0.127k=4+0.169k=5+0.0870+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=6.36)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONTRENDING · variance ratio > 1from Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=6.36)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$397.21k
Open interest (USD)
$376.97k
Vol / OI (turnover)
1.05x
1h funding
-0.169433%
Funding (annualised)
-1484.23%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
5.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
2.500×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 9.80% · worst -1.27% · typical |Δ| 1.28%BULLISH SESSION +22.42%BEST+9.80%09hWORST-1.27%07hTYPICAL |Δ|1.28%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+22.42%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↗ 4up-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +0.82% · Σ +6.53%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +2.08% · Σ +16.64%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.09% · Σ -0.75%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +22.42%+22.42%-0.76%-0.18% · 12h-0.18% · 12h-0.18%12h-0.02% · 13h-0.02% · 13h-0.02%13h0.11% · 14h0.11% · 14h0.11%14h0.68% · 15h0.68% · 15h0.68%15h-0.56% · 16h-0.56% · 16h-0.56%16h0.10% · 17h0.10% · 17h0.10%17h-0.43% · 18h-0.43% · 18h-0.43%18h0.06% · 19h0.06% · 19h0.06%19h-0.52% · 20h-0.52% · 20h-0.52%20h1.24% · 21h1.24% · 21h1.24%21h-0.46% · 22h-0.46% · 22h-0.46%22h-0.18% · 23h-0.18% · 23h-0.18%23h1.15% · 00h1.15% · 00h1.15%00h2.37% · 01h2.37% · 01h2.37%01h0.07% · 02h0.07% · 02h0.07%02h1.32% · 03h1.32% · 03h1.32%03h1.23% · 04h1.23% · 04h1.23%04h2.18% · 05h2.18% · 05h2.18%05h-0.52% · 06h-0.52% · 06h-0.52%06h-1.27% · 07h-1.27% · 07h-1.27%07h▼ WORST1.67% · 08h1.67% · 08h1.67%08h9.80% · 09h9.80% · 09h9.80%09h★ BEST4.20% · 10h4.20% · 10h4.20%10h0.37% · 11h0.37% · 11h0.37%11hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+16.64%)RUNSup max 6 · down max 2BREADTH63% up · 38% down
15 up bars · 9 down · best 9.80% · worst -1.27% · typical |Δ| 1.279%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsSTRONG PROFIT +24.32% · SHALLOW DDFINAL+24.32%MAX DD-1.78%RECOVERYFULLY RECOVEREDMAX RUN-UP+24.32%UNDERWATER14/25 (56%)STREAK↗ 4EQUITY CURVE · end 1.2432 · peak 1.2432 · range [0.9924, 1.2432]1.24320.9924break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.2432UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -1.78% · moderate0%-1.78%▼ TROUGH -1.78%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 3 total#1 -1.78%bar 20-22 · 3 bars · recovered#2 -1.34%bar 6-13 · 8 bars · recovered#3 -0.20%bar 2-4 · 3 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -1.78%)RECOVERYfully recoveredTIME UNDER WATER56% of session · 14/25 bars
final equity 1.2432 (24.32%) · max DD -1.78% · time-under-water 14/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +13 / −6 (68% positive) · μ=40.50 · σ=44.85PROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST 54.06 (+0.30σ vs μ)156.7078.350.00-78.35-156.70μ = 40.505.155.15-3.96-3.96-1.18-1.18-21.44-21.44-2.57-2.57-0.26-0.26-6.85-6.8525.5125.5148.0748.0760.5960.5961.2561.2599.9299.92156.70156.7090.6790.6736.2536.2553.2953.2951.6051.6062.6162.6154.0654.06v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 54.058 · range [-21.44, 156.70] · μ 40.495 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=125.7830 · σ=114.9588 · range [38.1986, 385.1609] · R²=0.612▲ RISING +908.31%σ EXTREME 91.39%LAST 385.1609385.1609298.4204211.6798124.939238.1986μ = 125.7830max 385.1609min 38.1986dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.61μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 385.16% · range [38.20%, 385.16%] · μ 125.78% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +4 / −15 (21% positive) · μ=-0.229 · σ=0.291MEAN-REVERSIONLAST 0.210 (+1.51σ vs μ)0.5920.2960.000-0.296-0.592μ = -0.229-0.439-0.439-0.408-0.408-0.436-0.436-0.546-0.546-0.351-0.351-0.592-0.592-0.528-0.528-0.461-0.461-0.002-0.002-0.053-0.053-0.014-0.014-0.339-0.339-0.452-0.452-0.476-0.4760.1870.187-0.013-0.0130.0920.0920.2730.2730.2100.210v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 0.210 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
2 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence2 reject·4 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀***

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
151.2332
p-VALUE (log scale)
< 0.0001
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
5.6859
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3378
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
1.7067
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.9990
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
-0.1117
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.9111
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (12 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.7024
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0133
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
1.4597
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1444
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 1.444 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=5.02e-4 · top T=4.80h (16.2%) · top-3 cover 46.4%WHITE NOISE · no dominant cyclecumulative energy ↗ (0 bins above 2× noise)9.8e-47.3e-44.9e-42.4e-40.0e+0μ noise floorperiod 24.0 · power 9.22e-4 · 15.3% energyperiod 24.0 · power 9.22e-4 · 15.3% energyperiod 12.0 · power 4.69e-4 · 7.8% energyperiod 12.0 · power 4.69e-4 · 7.8% energyperiod 8.0 · power 8.41e-4 · 13.9% energyperiod 8.0 · power 8.41e-4 · 13.9% energyperiod 6.0 · power 8.87e-4 · 14.7% energyperiod 6.0 · power 8.87e-4 · 14.7% energyperiod 4.8 · power 9.78e-4 · 16.2% energyperiod 4.8 · power 9.78e-4 · 16.2% energyperiod 4.0 · power 8.99e-4 · 14.9% energyperiod 4.0 · power 8.99e-4 · 14.9% energyperiod 3.4 · power 9.28e-5 · 1.5% energyperiod 3.4 · power 9.28e-5 · 1.5% energyperiod 3.0 · power 3.03e-4 · 5.0% energyperiod 3.0 · power 3.03e-4 · 5.0% energyperiod 2.7 · power 7.90e-5 · 1.3% energyperiod 2.7 · power 7.90e-5 · 1.3% energyperiod 2.4 · power 4.26e-5 · 0.7% energyperiod 2.4 · power 4.26e-5 · 0.7% energyperiod 2.2 · power 2.25e-5 · 0.4% energyperiod 2.2 · power 2.25e-5 · 0.4% energyperiod 2.0 · power 4.92e-4 · 8.2% energyperiod 2.0 · power 4.92e-4 · 8.2% energy50% by T=6.0h#1 dominantT=4.80h#2T=24.00h#3T=4.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 4.80h (freq 0.208) · concentrates 16.2% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 6.028e-3

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5258724 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
f★ empirical 8.00× · g(f★) 0.026%/barparametric μ/σ² 32.45× · μ 0.004% · σ 0.11%
μ per barmean
0.004%
σ per barvol
0.11%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
8.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
32.45×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
4.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
2.00×
industry default — survives model error
0.00%0.01%0.02%0.02%0.03%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 3.00× leverage
Median CAGR/bar 0.011% · annualized Sharpe 80.23400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 3.00× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
0.035
annualized 80.23
μ per barafter L
0.011%
σ per barafter L
0.32%
VaR 95%5%
0.36%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.72%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.6%
0.90×0.98×1.06×1.14×1.22×1.29×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR 1000% · APY 1000% · Sharpe 79.45σ ann 245% · Sortino 74.57 · n 4999 · ⚠ capped (n=4999 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
0%1907%3814%5720%7627%9534%1000.0%APR (simple)1000.0%APY (compound)244.8%Ann. vol σ7945.1%Sharpe (ann)7456.6%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.006% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.0090.0090.0100.0110.0110.012t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 11:01:08 UTC
Snapshot age
1.1s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 11:01:10 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
98304a15e41a87cdfbb13a19ddcad2747ccc85473bc849aa184f2a55ea0838ee · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany94.4¢HL PREDSpain90.3¢HL PREDUruguay66.6¢POLYMARKETWill Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?22¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$64,476HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,672.7HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$61

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$1.33K
bid $838 · ask $495
Depth within 50bp
$31.92K
bid $21.22K · ask $10.70K
Mid price
0.011123
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
13.5bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.085
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.265
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-skr/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.01113610.82bp0.0111402FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.01115326.86bp0.01117811FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.01117950.28bp0.01120720PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.0111157.47bp0.0111112FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.01110516.57bp0.0110959FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.01108831.88bp0.01106020PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ SHORTS PAY · longs receive
Hourly funding
-1.694e-3
-0.16943% / hr
Annualised APR
-1485.246%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
5.9h
longs receive
Short: days to 1% carry
5.9h
shorts pay
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGRECEIVE1485.246%5.9h2.5d
SHORTPAY-1485.246%5.9h2.5d

/api/asset/hl-skr/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$39.81M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-skr/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ BID-LEAN · +0.807 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
15 / 9
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$35.62M
real volume
Sell weight
$3.80M
real volume
Net delta
$31.82M
buyers net
Imbalance
80.74%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
80.7%
one-sided / toxic
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-skr/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 5 found · deepest 1.77% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-14 06:00:00Z1.0h0.009662→0.0094911.770%2
#22026-06-13 20:00:00Z0ms0.008917→0.0088380.886%1
#32026-06-13 18:00:00Z0ms0.008958→0.0088790.882%1

/api/asset/hl-skr/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
244.83%
σ per bar = 0.001068
Mean return (annualised)
19451.97%
μ per bar = 0.000037
Sharpe (rf=0)
79.45
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
4.11%
peak 0.01 → trough 0.01 over 138 bars

/api/asset/hl-skr/risk · same metrics, JSON