HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

SNX

SNX-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-snx · fresh · feed 5s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -0.27%
realized vol (ann.)
47.23%
max drawdown
0.61%
sharpe
-80.21
ulcer index
0.37%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.32%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.02%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-10361.96
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
0.60%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.87
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-6308.14
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.87
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
633
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-0.27%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.95%
signalNEUTRALconfidence 36%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 16.6bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-snx/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH4.7s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.241
24h Δ · live
-0.27%
24h vol · live
$0.2M
SNX · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.2415 · σ=0.0010 · range [0.2398, 0.2442] · R²=0.114▼ FALLING -0.32%σ LOW 0.42%LAST 0.24070.24420.24310.24200.24090.2398μ = 0.2415max 0.2442min 0.2398dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.11μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.24
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.1%Short fee 51.9%SHORT FEE51.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001250% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=777,151 · μ=31086.0 · σ=25852.0 · CV=0.83BURSTYcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=11026,23152,46278,693104,923μ = 31086104,923.450%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 104923 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
4.7s
$mark $
$0.2408
$mid $
$0.2408
◉prev-day close
$0.2414
Δ24h Δ %
-0.273%
$24h vol $
$185.87k
◐open interest $
$533.09k
%funding (1h)
0.001250%
%funding (yr)
+10.95%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.2415 · σ=0.0010 · range [0.2398, 0.2442] · R²=0.114▼ FALLING -0.32%σ LOW 0.42%LAST 0.24070.24420.24310.24200.24090.2398μ = 0.2415max 0.2442min 0.2398dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.11μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.2407 · 24h -0.27% · range $[0.2398, 0.2442]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 13 · down 12 (52% up) · range [0.2392, 0.2446] · σ=0.0010 · CV=0.00 · bodyµ=50%BEARISH -0.83%CLOSE 0.2407 vs OPEN 0.2427 (-0.83%)&#9660; CLOSE 0.24070.24460.24330.24190.24050.2392μ close = 0.2415O0.243 H0.243 L0.241 C0.241 (-0.51%)O0.243 H0.243 L0.241 C0.241 (-0.51%)O0.241 H0.244 L0.241 C0.242 (+0.40%)O0.241 H0.244 L0.241 C0.242 (+0.40%)O0.243 H0.243 L0.241 C0.242 (-0.42%)O0.243 H0.243 L0.241 C0.242 (-0.42%)O0.241 H0.242 L0.241 C0.241 (+0.00%)O0.241 H0.242 L0.241 C0.241 (+0.00%)O0.241 H0.242 L0.240 C0.240 (-0.38%)O0.241 H0.242 L0.240 C0.240 (-0.38%)O0.241 H0.242 L0.239 C0.242 (+0.56%)O0.241 H0.242 L0.239 C0.242 (+0.56%)0.9%O0.242 H0.245 L0.241 C0.244 (+0.89%)O0.242 H0.245 L0.241 C0.244 (+0.89%)O0.244 H0.244 L0.242 C0.243 (-0.43%)O0.244 H0.244 L0.242 C0.243 (-0.43%)O0.243 H0.244 L0.242 C0.243 (+0.00%)O0.243 H0.244 L0.242 C0.243 (+0.00%)O0.243 H0.244 L0.241 C0.242 (-0.47%)O0.243 H0.244 L0.241 C0.242 (-0.47%)O0.241 H0.243 L0.241 C0.242 (+0.48%)O0.241 H0.243 L0.241 C0.242 (+0.48%)O0.242 H0.242 L0.240 C0.241 (-0.46%)O0.242 H0.242 L0.240 C0.241 (-0.46%)O0.241 H0.241 L0.240 C0.240 (-0.42%)O0.241 H0.241 L0.240 C0.240 (-0.42%)O0.240 H0.241 L0.240 C0.241 (+0.53%)O0.240 H0.241 L0.240 C0.241 (+0.53%)O0.241 H0.242 L0.240 C0.240 (-0.69%)O0.241 H0.242 L0.240 C0.240 (-0.69%)O0.240 H0.241 L0.239 C0.241 (+0.35%)O0.240 H0.241 L0.239 C0.241 (+0.35%)O0.241 H0.242 L0.240 C0.242 (+0.32%)O0.241 H0.242 L0.240 C0.242 (+0.32%)O0.242 H0.244 L0.242 C0.242 (+0.22%)O0.242 H0.244 L0.242 C0.242 (+0.22%)O0.243 H0.243 L0.241 C0.241 (-0.60%)O0.243 H0.243 L0.241 C0.241 (-0.60%)O0.241 H0.241 L0.240 C0.240 (-0.52%)O0.241 H0.241 L0.240 C0.240 (-0.52%)O0.240 H0.241 L0.240 C0.241 (+0.01%)O0.240 H0.241 L0.240 C0.241 (+0.01%)O0.240 H0.241 L0.240 C0.241 (+0.26%)O0.240 H0.241 L0.240 C0.241 (+0.26%)O0.241 H0.244 L0.241 C0.242 (+0.26%)O0.241 H0.244 L0.241 C0.242 (+0.26%)O0.242 H0.243 L0.241 C0.242 (-0.00%)O0.242 H0.243 L0.241 C0.242 (-0.00%)O0.242 H0.242 L0.241 C0.241 (-0.63%)O0.242 H0.242 L0.241 C0.241 (-0.63%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=777,151 · μ=31086.0 · σ=25852.0 · CV=0.83BURSTYcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=11026,23152,46278,693104,923μ = 310868,153.3 · 7.8% peak8,153.3 · 7.8% peak104,923.4104,923.4 · 100.0% peak104,923.4 · 100.0% peak52,562.7 · 50.1% peak52,562.7 · 50.1% peak36,928.9 · 35.2% peak36,928.9 · 35.2% peak19,465.9 · 18.6% peak19,465.9 · 18.6% peak22,536 · 21.5% peak22,536 · 21.5% peak15,334.1 · 14.6% peak15,334.1 · 14.6% peak9,677.7 · 9.2% peak9,677.7 · 9.2% peak14,853.1 · 14.2% peak14,853.1 · 14.2% peak35,857.4 · 34.2% peak35,857.4 · 34.2% peak83,865 · 79.9% peak83,865 · 79.9% peak31,660.5 · 30.2% peak31,660.5 · 30.2% peak28,078.7 · 26.8% peak28,078.7 · 26.8% peak44,518.6 · 42.4% peak44,518.6 · 42.4% peak8,648.6 · 8.2% peak8,648.6 · 8.2% peak10,774.7 · 10.3% peak10,774.7 · 10.3% peak21,296.4 · 20.3% peak21,296.4 · 20.3% peak86,606.4 · 82.5% peak86,606.4 · 82.5% peak28,505.4 · 27.2% peak28,505.4 · 27.2% peak18,534.5 · 17.7% peak18,534.5 · 17.7% peak19,613.7 · 18.7% peak19,613.7 · 18.7% peak30,931.7 · 29.5% peak30,931.7 · 29.5% peak25,707.3 · 24.5% peak25,707.3 · 24.5% peak9,682.6 · 9.2% peak9,682.6 · 9.2% peak8,434.4 · 8.0% peak8,434.4 · 8.0% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 777151 · peak 104923 · CV 0.83

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=-0.0002 · σ=0.0043 · skew=0.29 (symmetric) · kurt=-1.15 (platykurtic (thin tails))65320 1-61.94bpbin -61.94bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin -61.94bp · n=1 · 16.7% peak 6-48.68bpbin -48.68bp · n=6 · 100.0% peakbin -48.68bp · n=6 · 100.0% peak 3-35.43bpbin -35.43bp · n=3 · 50.0% peakbin -35.43bp · n=3 · 50.0% peak-22.17bp 2-8.92bpbin -8.92bp · n=2 · 33.3% peakbin -8.92bp · n=2 · 33.3% peak 14.34bpbin 4.34bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin 4.34bp · n=1 · 16.7% peak 417.59bpbin 17.59bp · n=4 · 66.7% peakbin 17.59bp · n=4 · 66.7% peak 230.85bpbin 30.85bp · n=2 · 33.3% peakbin 30.85bp · n=2 · 33.3% peak 244.10bpbin 44.10bp · n=2 · 33.3% peakbin 44.10bp · n=2 · 33.3% peak 157.35bpbin 57.35bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin 57.35bp · n=1 · 16.7% peak 170.61bpbin 70.61bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin 70.61bp · n=1 · 16.7% peak 183.86bpbin 83.86bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin 83.86bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 12 · negative 12
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=0.26 · kurt=-1.08 · near 18 / mid 6 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.00 intercept=-0.00APPROXIMATELY NORMALUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.2408
Mid price
$0.2408
24h change
-0.27%
Mark–mid spread
1.66 bps
Prev-day close
$0.2414

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25APPROXIMATELY NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVED
μ MEAN0.2415$95% CI: [0.2411$, 0.2419$]
σ STD DEV0.0010$σ² = 0.010×10⁻⁴ · CV = 0.42%
med MEDIAN0.2415$Q₁ 0.2410$ · Q₃ 0.2420$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0044$ · IQR 0.0010$ (1.349σ→0.0014$)
min 0.2398$Q₁ 0.2410$med 0.2415$Q₃ 0.2420$max 0.2442$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.493approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂0.120mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ median≈ equal · symmetric|μ−med| / σ = 0.06
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 1.37
range ↔ σwide tails (range > 4σ)range / σ = 4.37
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDUNPROFITABLE · SR=-2.78
μᵣ MEAN / h-0.013310%drift is negative per h · |μ|/σ = 0.030
σᵣ STD / h0.447976%σ²ᵣ = 0.201×10⁻⁴ · CV = 33.66×
σ ANNUALISED41.93%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.448%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)-2.78negative edge
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)-2.86downside drag
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)-64.86drawdown overwhelms returns
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁0.28approximately symmetric
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-1.04platykurtic · thin tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 1.03
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown > returns · adverseCR = -64.86
EXPECTED EDGE-116.59%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKELEVATED · 95% VaR 0.53%
VaR₉₅ (h)0.531%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)0.651%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)0.610%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN1.80%8h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−0.531%VaR₉₉−0.651%ES₉₅−0.610%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 8h duration
PEAK24.42$
−1.80% drawdown over 8h
23.98$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmild tail heaviness|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.15× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONuniform tailratio = 1.22× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +1.83% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
47.4 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.294 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.2437
Bollinger MA
$0.2416
Bollinger lower
$0.2394

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit root
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.150within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.175lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.978strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-1.724fails 5% test
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.978
H = 0.978STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.150k=2-0.175k=3-0.200k=4-0.101k=5+0.2310+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]MARGINAL @ 10% (|t|=1.72)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit rootfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCEMARGINAL @ 10% (|t|=1.72)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$185.87k
Open interest (USD)
$533.09k
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.35x
1h funding
0.001250%
Funding (annualised)
+10.95%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
-6.632× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
-3.316× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
-1.658×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 0.90% · worst -0.69% · typical |Δ| 0.39%MILD BEARISH -0.32%BEST+0.90%13hWORST-0.69%21hTYPICAL |Δ|0.39%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-0.32%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 1down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.06% · Σ -0.50%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.07% · Σ +0.57%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.05% · Σ -0.39%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -0.32%+1.14%-0.67%0.39% · 08h0.39% · 08h0.39%08h-0.31% · 09h-0.31% · 09h-0.31%09h-0.07% · 10h-0.07% · 10h-0.07%10h-0.43% · 11h-0.43% · 11h-0.43%11h0.66% · 12h0.66% · 12h0.66%12h0.90% · 13h0.90% · 13h0.90%13h★ BEST-0.49% · 14h-0.49% · 14h-0.49%14h-0.09% · 15h-0.09% · 15h-0.09%15h-0.43% · 16h-0.43% · 16h-0.43%16h0.23% · 17h0.23% · 17h0.23%17h-0.51% · 18h-0.51% · 18h-0.51%18h-0.38% · 19h-0.38% · 19h-0.38%19h0.55% · 20h0.55% · 20h0.55%20h-0.69% · 21h-0.69% · 21h-0.69%21h▼ WORST0.50% · 22h0.50% · 22h0.50%22h0.35% · 23h0.35% · 23h0.35%23h0.18% · 00h0.18% · 00h0.18%00h-0.48% · 01h-0.48% · 01h-0.48%01h-0.39% · 02h-0.39% · 02h-0.39%02h0.13% · 03h0.13% · 03h0.13%03h0.22% · 04h0.22% · 04h0.22%04h0.34% · 05h0.34% · 05h0.34%05h0.05% · 06h0.05% · 06h0.05%06h-0.53% · 07h-0.53% · 07h-0.53%07hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+0.57%)RUNSup max 4 · down max 3BREADTH50% up · 50% down
12 up bars · 12 down · best 0.90% · worst -0.69% · typical |Δ| 0.388%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS · SHALLOW DD (-0.34%)FINAL-0.34%MAX DD-1.81%RECOVERYONGOING · 18 barsMAX RUN-UP+1.14%UNDERWATER22/25 (88%)STREAK↘ 1EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9966 · peak 1.0114 · range [0.9932, 1.0114]1.01140.9932break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0114UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -1.81% · moderate0%-1.81%▼ TROUGH -1.81%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 2 total#1 -1.81%bar 8-25 · 18 bars · ONGOING#2 -0.81%bar 3-6 · 4 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -1.81%)RECOVERYongoing · 18 barsTIME UNDER WATER88% of session · 22/25 bars
final equity 0.9966 (-0.34%) · max DD -1.81% · time-under-water 22/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +9 / −10 (47% positive) · μ=-4.94 · σ=26.54MIXED EDGELAST -8.70 (-0.14σ vs μ)89.9244.960.00-44.96-89.92μ = -4.9432.8232.827.017.0113.3213.323.163.1621.3121.31-11.05-11.05-89.92-89.92-23.61-23.61-39.82-39.82-8.70-8.70-5.09-5.0915.6915.6912.2212.22-16.87-16.8711.1311.130.190.19-0.37-0.37-6.55-6.55-8.70-8.70v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -8.701 · range [-89.92, 32.82] · μ -4.939 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=44.5714 · σ=9.6434 · range [27.2857, 57.3482] · R²=0.483▼ FALLING -35.73%σ EXTREME 21.64%LAST 32.736257.348249.832542.316934.801327.2857μ = 44.5714max 57.3482min 27.2857dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.48μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 32.74% · range [27.29%, 57.35%] · μ 44.57% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +8 / −11 (42% positive) · μ=-0.125 · σ=0.354CLOSE TO MARTINGALELAST 0.107 (+0.66σ vs μ)0.6170.3080.000-0.308-0.617μ = -0.1250.1580.158-0.072-0.072-0.069-0.069-0.035-0.0350.0850.085-0.408-0.408-0.566-0.566-0.358-0.358-0.577-0.577-0.617-0.617-0.364-0.364-0.597-0.597-0.434-0.4340.0300.0300.3820.3820.2370.2370.2590.2590.4660.4660.1070.107v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 0.107 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
1.4055
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4952
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
4.7344
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4501
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-2.8637
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0496
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonestationary · mean-reverting (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
-0.4174
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6764
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (12 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.2640
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2450
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-0.9988
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3179
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.696 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=1.97e-5 · top T=2.40h (30.7%) · top-3 cover 56.7%1 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEcumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)7.2e-55.4e-53.6e-51.8e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 1.39e-6 · 0.6% energyperiod 24.0 · power 1.39e-6 · 0.6% energyperiod 12.0 · power 7.35e-6 · 3.1% energyperiod 12.0 · power 7.35e-6 · 3.1% energyperiod 8.0 · power 3.21e-5 · 13.6% energyperiod 8.0 · power 3.21e-5 · 13.6% energyperiod 6.0 · power 9.86e-6 · 4.2% energyperiod 6.0 · power 9.86e-6 · 4.2% energyperiod 4.8 · power 2.94e-5 · 12.5% energyperiod 4.8 · power 2.94e-5 · 12.5% energyperiod 4.0 · power 2.94e-5 · 12.5% energyperiod 4.0 · power 2.94e-5 · 12.5% energyperiod 3.4 · power 2.75e-5 · 11.6% energyperiod 3.4 · power 2.75e-5 · 11.6% energyperiod 3.0 · power 4.24e-6 · 1.8% energyperiod 3.0 · power 4.24e-6 · 1.8% energyperiod 2.7 · power 2.67e-6 · 1.1% energyperiod 2.7 · power 2.67e-6 · 1.1% energyperiod 2.4 · power 7.24e-5 · 30.7% energyperiod 2.4 · power 7.24e-5 · 30.7% energyperiod 2.2 · power 8.88e-6 · 3.8% energyperiod 2.2 · power 8.88e-6 · 3.8% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.11e-5 · 4.7% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.11e-5 · 4.7% energy50% by T=3.4h#1 dominantT=2.40h#2T=8.00h#3T=4.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.40h (freq 0.417) · concentrates 30.7% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 2.363e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (4749 bars · effective 5249102 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.000% per barparametric μ/σ² -1.38× · μ -0.000% · σ 0.14%
μ per barmean
-0.000%
σ per barvol
0.14%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-1.38×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.00%0.02%0.05%0.07%0.10%0.0×0.9×1.8×2.7×3.6×4.4×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -5.12400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4748 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.002
annualized -5.12
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.01%
VaR 95%5%
0.00%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.02%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.0%
0.94×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.06×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -1000% · APY -100% · Sharpe -4.52σ ann 329% · Sortino -3.76 · n 4748 · ⚠ capped (n=4748 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
-1200%-881%-562%-243%76%395%-1000.0%APR (simple)-100.0%APY (compound)328.8%Ann. vol σ-452.3%Sharpe (ann)-376.5%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.2250.2360.2460.2570.2670.277t-4748t-3957t-3165t-2374t-1583t-791t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-20 07:59:07 UTC
Snapshot age
4.7s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-20 07:59:12 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
314b85ce3134338b4309d7609e55481c3524dbbc3c9d651e56834627f9eeac98 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$6.08K
bid $1.04K · ask $5.04K
Depth within 50bp
$88.90K
bid $65.06K · ask $23.85K
Mid price
0.240795
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
10.4bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.466
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.190
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-snx/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.2409235.33bp0.2409702FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.24108211.93bp0.24138012FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.24146727.91bp0.24189020PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.2406396.47bp0.2406303FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.24039016.82bp0.24023013FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.24008929.34bp0.23981020PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.250e-5
0.00125% / hr
Annualised APR
10.958%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
33.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
33.3d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-10.958%33.3d333.3d
SHORTRECEIVE10.958%33.3d333.3d

/api/asset/hl-snx/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$777.15K

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-snx/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ BID-LEAN · +0.237 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
12 / 12
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$475.79K
real volume
Sell weight
$293.21K
real volume
Net delta
$182.58K
buyers net
Imbalance
23.74%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
23.7%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-snx/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 6 found · deepest 1.10% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-19 18:00:00Z1.0h0.242810→0.2401501.096%2
#22026-06-19 15:00:00Z1.0h0.244220→0.2417601.007%2
#32026-06-20 02:00:00Z1.0h0.242300→0.2402000.867%2

/api/asset/hl-snx/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 4,749 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.25M
Realized vol (annualised)
328.77%
σ per bar = 0.001435
Mean return (annualised)
-1486.97%
μ per bar = -0.000003
Sharpe (rf=0)
-4.52
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
9.68%
peak 0.26 → trough 0.24 over 3973 bars

/api/asset/hl-snx/risk · same metrics, JSON