HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

STBL

STBL-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-stbl · fresh · feed 6s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▲ 4.55%
realized vol (ann.)
148.68%
max drawdown
3.75%
sharpe
-50.83
ulcer index
2.33%
RMS drawdown
pain index
2.15%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.08%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-3248.27
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
3.41%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.92
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-2214.82
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.92
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
4.55%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.95%
signalNEUTRALconfidence 33%
  • 24h change +4.55%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
  • mark rich vs HL oracle by 10.5bps — fade/short bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-stbl/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH5.8s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.027
24h Δ · live
4.55%
24h vol · live
$0.4M
STBL · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.0261 · σ=0.0005 · range [0.0253, 0.0272] · R²=0.104▲ RISING +4.07%σ NORMAL 1.98%LAST 0.02660.02720.02670.02620.02580.0253μ = 0.0261max 0.0272min 0.0253dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.10μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.03
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.1%Short fee 51.9%SHORT FEE51.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001250% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=14,428,266 · μ=577130.6 · σ=702119.5 · CV=1.22BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=160853,2801,706,5602,559,8393,413,119μ = 5771313,413,11950%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 3413119 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
5.8s
$mark $
$0.0266
$mid $
$0.0266
◉prev-day close
$0.0255
Δ24h Δ %
+4.551%
$24h vol $
$376.14k
◐open interest $
$2.46M
%funding (1h)
0.001250%
%funding (yr)
+10.95%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.0261 · σ=0.0005 · range [0.0253, 0.0272] · R²=0.104▲ RISING +4.07%σ NORMAL 1.98%LAST 0.02660.02720.02670.02620.02580.0253μ = 0.0261max 0.0272min 0.0253dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.10μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.0266 · 24h 4.55% · range $[0.0253, 0.0272]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 13 · down 12 (52% up) · range [0.0252, 0.0280] · σ=0.0005 · CV=0.02 · bodyµ=42%BULLISH +4.55%CLOSE 0.0266 vs OPEN 0.0255 (+4.55%)&#9650; CLOSE 0.02660.02800.02730.02660.02590.0252μ close = 0.0261O0.025 H0.026 L0.025 C0.026 (+0.46%)O0.025 H0.026 L0.025 C0.026 (+0.46%)O0.026 H0.026 L0.026 C0.026 (+0.30%)O0.026 H0.026 L0.026 C0.026 (+0.30%)O0.026 H0.026 L0.025 C0.025 (-0.49%)O0.026 H0.026 L0.025 C0.025 (-0.49%)O0.025 H0.027 L0.025 C0.026 (+2.06%)O0.025 H0.027 L0.025 C0.026 (+2.06%)O0.026 H0.027 L0.026 C0.026 (+1.53%)O0.026 H0.027 L0.026 C0.026 (+1.53%)O0.026 H0.027 L0.026 C0.026 (-1.03%)O0.026 H0.027 L0.026 C0.026 (-1.03%)O0.026 H0.026 L0.026 C0.026 (-0.48%)O0.026 H0.026 L0.026 C0.026 (-0.48%)O0.026 H0.026 L0.026 C0.026 (+0.18%)O0.026 H0.026 L0.026 C0.026 (+0.18%)O0.026 H0.027 L0.026 C0.026 (+0.20%)O0.026 H0.027 L0.026 C0.026 (+0.20%)O0.026 H0.026 L0.026 C0.026 (-0.27%)O0.026 H0.026 L0.026 C0.026 (-0.27%)O0.026 H0.027 L0.026 C0.027 (+0.85%)O0.026 H0.027 L0.026 C0.027 (+0.85%)O0.027 H0.027 L0.026 C0.026 (-2.93%)O0.027 H0.027 L0.026 C0.026 (-2.93%)O0.026 H0.026 L0.026 C0.026 (-0.05%)O0.026 H0.026 L0.026 C0.026 (-0.05%)O0.026 H0.026 L0.026 C0.026 (+0.86%)O0.026 H0.026 L0.026 C0.026 (+0.86%)O0.026 H0.026 L0.026 C0.026 (+0.04%)O0.026 H0.026 L0.026 C0.026 (+0.04%)O0.026 H0.026 L0.025 C0.026 (-1.96%)O0.026 H0.026 L0.025 C0.026 (-1.96%)O0.025 H0.026 L0.025 C0.026 (+0.41%)O0.025 H0.026 L0.025 C0.026 (+0.41%)O0.026 H0.026 L0.025 C0.025 (-0.48%)O0.026 H0.026 L0.025 C0.025 (-0.48%)O0.025 H0.025 L0.025 C0.025 (+0.08%)O0.025 H0.025 L0.025 C0.025 (+0.08%)O0.025 H0.026 L0.025 C0.025 (-0.62%)O0.025 H0.026 L0.025 C0.025 (-0.62%)7.4%O0.025 H0.028 L0.025 C0.027 (+7.42%)O0.025 H0.028 L0.025 C0.027 (+7.42%)O0.027 H0.027 L0.026 C0.027 (-0.76%)O0.027 H0.027 L0.026 C0.027 (-0.76%)O0.027 H0.027 L0.027 C0.027 (-0.61%)O0.027 H0.027 L0.027 C0.027 (-0.61%)O0.027 H0.027 L0.027 C0.027 (-0.36%)O0.027 H0.027 L0.027 C0.027 (-0.36%)O0.027 H0.027 L0.027 C0.027 (+0.18%)O0.027 H0.027 L0.027 C0.027 (+0.18%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=14,428,266 · μ=577130.6 · σ=702119.5 · CV=1.22BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=160853,2801,706,5602,559,8393,413,119μ = 577131921,461 · 27.0% peak921,461 · 27.0% peak359,424 · 10.5% peak359,424 · 10.5% peak330,117 · 9.7% peak330,117 · 9.7% peak1,037,381 · 30.4% peak1,037,381 · 30.4% peak782,367 · 22.9% peak782,367 · 22.9% peak603,727 · 17.7% peak603,727 · 17.7% peak338,815 · 9.9% peak338,815 · 9.9% peak208,578 · 6.1% peak208,578 · 6.1% peak642,589 · 18.8% peak642,589 · 18.8% peak510,613 · 15.0% peak510,613 · 15.0% peak219,990 · 6.4% peak219,990 · 6.4% peak197,425 · 5.8% peak197,425 · 5.8% peak231,081 · 6.8% peak231,081 · 6.8% peak349,140 · 10.2% peak349,140 · 10.2% peak342,744 · 10.0% peak342,744 · 10.0% peak651,138 · 19.1% peak651,138 · 19.1% peak166,802 · 4.9% peak166,802 · 4.9% peak84,468 · 2.5% peak84,468 · 2.5% peak194,251 · 5.7% peak194,251 · 5.7% peak321,691 · 9.4% peak321,691 · 9.4% peak3,413,1193,413,119 · 100.0% peak3,413,119 · 100.0% peak1,817,158 · 53.2% peak1,817,158 · 53.2% peak414,322 · 12.1% peak414,322 · 12.1% peak288,036 · 8.4% peak288,036 · 8.4% peak1,829 · 0.1% peak1,829 · 0.1% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 14428266 · peak 3413119 · CV 1.22

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=0.0009 · σ=0.0167 · skew=2.50 (right-skewed) · kurt=8.11 (leptokurtic (fat tails))108530 1-250.74bpbin -250.74bp · n=1 · 10.0% peakbin -250.74bp · n=1 · 10.0% peak 1-166.50bpbin -166.50bp · n=1 · 10.0% peakbin -166.50bp · n=1 · 10.0% peak 7-82.26bpbin -82.26bp · n=7 · 70.0% peakbin -82.26bp · n=7 · 70.0% peak 101.98bpbin 1.98bp · n=10 · 100.0% peakbin 1.98bp · n=10 · 100.0% peak 286.22bpbin 86.22bp · n=2 · 20.0% peakbin 86.22bp · n=2 · 20.0% peak 2170.46bpbin 170.46bp · n=2 · 20.0% peakbin 170.46bp · n=2 · 20.0% peak254.70bp338.95bp423.19bp507.43bp591.67bp 1675.91bpbin 675.91bp · n=1 · 10.0% peakbin 675.91bp · n=1 · 10.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 11 · negative 13
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=2.28 · kurt=7.38 · near 10 / mid 13 / far 1 · OLS slope=0.88 intercept=-0.00LEPTOKURTIC — FAT TAILSUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σΔ=+1.88σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.0266
Mid price
$0.0266
24h change
+4.55%
Mark–mid spread
4.13 bps
Prev-day close
$0.0255

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25PLATYKURTIC · THIN TAILS (G₂=-1.00)
μ MEAN0.0261$95% CI: [0.0259$, 0.0263$]
σ STD DEV0.0005$σ² = 0.003×10⁻⁴ · CV = 1.98%
med MEDIAN0.0260$Q₁ 0.0256$ · Q₃ 0.0265$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0019$ · IQR 0.0009$ (1.349σ→0.0007$)
min 0.0253$Q₁ 0.0256$med 0.0260$Q₃ 0.0265$max 0.0272$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.354approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-1.003platykurtic · thin tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.11
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 0.80
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.64
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDEXCEPTIONAL EDGE · SR=8.51
μᵣ MEAN / h+0.166175%drift is positive per h · |μ|/σ = 0.091
σᵣ STD / h1.827723%σ²ᵣ = 3.341×10⁻⁴ · CV = 11.00×
σ ANNUALISED171.07%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 1.828%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)8.51excellent · top-decile
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)14.04strong downside-adjusted
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)100.00exceptional DD control
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁2.44right-skewed · heavy positive tail
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂9.49leptokurtic · fat tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 1.65
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown control exceptionalCR = 100.00
EXPECTED EDGE+1455.69%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKHIGH · 95% VaR 1.71%
VaR₉₅ (h)1.706%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)2.672%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)2.371%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN4.75%9h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−1.706%VaR₉₉−2.672%ES₉₅−2.371%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 9h duration
PEAK2.65$
−4.75% drawdown over 9h
2.53$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmild tail heaviness|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.39× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONmoderate extreme-tail concentrationratio = 1.57× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +4.98% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
59.4 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.739 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.0272
Bollinger MA
$0.0261
Bollinger lower
$0.0250

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit root
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.182within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.158lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT1.105strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT+1.637fails 5% test
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 1.105
H = 1.105STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.182k=2-0.158k=3-0.069k=4+0.114k=5-0.2020+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]NOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=1.64)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit rootfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCENOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=1.64)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$376.14k
Open interest (USD)
$2.46M
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.15x
1h funding
0.001250%
Funding (annualised)
+10.95%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
4.974× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
2.487× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
1.244×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 7.18% · worst -2.93% · typical |Δ| 1.05%MILD BULLISH +3.99%BEST+7.18%07hWORST-2.93%22hTYPICAL |Δ|1.05%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+3.99%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↗ 1up-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +0.68% · Σ +5.47%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.17% · Σ +1.37%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.36% · Σ -2.85%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +3.99%+5.98%-1.20%0.29% · 12h0.29% · 12h0.29%12h-0.75% · 13h-0.75% · 13h-0.75%13h2.07% · 14h2.07% · 14h2.07%14h1.75% · 15h1.75% · 15h1.75%15h-1.09% · 16h-1.09% · 16h-1.09%16h-0.27% · 17h-0.27% · 17h-0.27%17h0.40% · 18h0.40% · 18h0.40%18h0.34% · 19h0.34% · 19h0.34%19h-0.21% · 20h-0.21% · 20h-0.21%20h1.14% · 21h1.14% · 21h1.14%21h-2.93% · 22h-2.93% · 22h-2.93%22h▼ WORST-0.23% · 23h-0.23% · 23h-0.23%23h0.95% · 00h0.95% · 00h0.95%00h0.05% · 01h0.05% · 01h0.05%01h-1.81% · 02h-1.81% · 02h-1.81%02h0.22% · 03h0.22% · 03h0.22%03h-0.41% · 04h-0.41% · 04h-0.41%04h-0.04% · 05h-0.04% · 05h-0.04%05h-0.66% · 06h-0.66% · 06h-0.66%06h7.18% · 07h7.18% · 07h7.18%07h★ BEST-0.85% · 08h-0.85% · 08h-0.85%08h-0.71% · 09h-0.71% · 09h-0.71%09h-0.58% · 10h-0.58% · 10h-0.58%10h0.15% · 11h0.15% · 11h0.15%11hTIME PATTERNAsia-led (+5.47%)RUNSup max 2 · down max 3BREADTH46% up · 54% down
11 up bars · 13 down · best 7.18% · worst -2.93% · typical |Δ| 1.045%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsPROFITABLE +3.68%FINAL+3.68%MAX DD-4.81%RECOVERYONGOING · 9 barsMAX RUN-UP+5.78%UNDERWATER19/25 (76%)STREAK↗ 1EQUITY CURVE · end 1.0368 · peak 1.0578 · range [0.9869, 1.0578]1.05780.9869break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0578UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -4.81% · moderate0%-4.81%▼ TROUGH -4.81%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 4 total#1 -4.81%bar 12-20 · 9 bars · recovered#2 -2.13%bar 22-25 · 4 bars · ONGOING#3 -1.36%bar 6-10 · 5 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -4.81%)RECOVERYongoing · 14 barsTIME UNDER WATER76% of session · 19/25 bars
final equity 1.0368 (3.68%) · max DD -4.81% · time-under-water 19/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +10 / −9 (53% positive) · μ=0.41 · σ=26.80MIXED EDGELAST 22.26 (+0.82σ vs μ)55.5827.790.00-27.79-55.58μ = 0.4123.8123.8125.1525.1541.6941.6915.0915.096.306.30-17.01-17.01-16.54-16.54-9.99-9.99-13.19-13.19-27.65-27.65-40.32-40.32-20.91-20.91-17.70-17.70-55.58-55.5821.6021.6027.3727.3722.2222.2221.2721.2722.2622.26v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 22.263 · range [-55.58, 41.69] · μ 0.414 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=161.2460 · σ=86.1713 · range [69.7272, 302.3249] · R²=0.492▲ RISING +141.69%σ EXTREME 53.44%LAST 296.4964302.3249244.1755186.0260127.876669.7272μ = 161.2460max 302.3249min 69.7272dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.49μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 296.50% · range [69.73%, 302.32%] · μ 161.25% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +1 / −18 (5% positive) · μ=-0.230 · σ=0.172MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.285 (-0.32σ vs μ)0.5910.2950.000-0.295-0.591μ = -0.230-0.061-0.061-0.074-0.0740.1860.186-0.352-0.352-0.002-0.002-0.330-0.330-0.335-0.335-0.329-0.329-0.314-0.314-0.326-0.326-0.098-0.098-0.217-0.217-0.209-0.209-0.591-0.591-0.097-0.097-0.359-0.359-0.300-0.300-0.276-0.276-0.285-0.285v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.285 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀***

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
113.8411
p-VALUE (log scale)
< 0.0001
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
3.4867
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6279
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-2.4060
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1482
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
0.8760
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3810
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (15 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.1861
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3810
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-0.9579
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3381
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.709 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=3.53e-4 · top T=3.43h (22.3%) · top-3 cover 52.6%2 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)9.5e-47.1e-44.7e-42.4e-40.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 1.47e-4 · 3.5% energyperiod 24.0 · power 1.47e-4 · 3.5% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.39e-4 · 3.3% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.39e-4 · 3.3% energyperiod 8.0 · power 2.75e-4 · 6.5% energyperiod 8.0 · power 2.75e-4 · 6.5% energyperiod 6.0 · power 5.00e-4 · 11.8% energyperiod 6.0 · power 5.00e-4 · 11.8% energyperiod 4.8 · power 5.07e-5 · 1.2% energyperiod 4.8 · power 5.07e-5 · 1.2% energyperiod 4.0 · power 4.36e-4 · 10.3% energyperiod 4.0 · power 4.36e-4 · 10.3% energyperiod 3.4 · power 9.45e-4 · 22.3% energyperiod 3.4 · power 9.45e-4 · 22.3% energyperiod 3.0 · power 6.77e-5 · 1.6% energyperiod 3.0 · power 6.77e-5 · 1.6% energyperiod 2.7 · power 2.76e-4 · 6.5% energyperiod 2.7 · power 2.76e-4 · 6.5% energyperiod 2.4 · power 4.00e-4 · 9.5% energyperiod 2.4 · power 4.00e-4 · 9.5% energyperiod 2.2 · power 2.15e-4 · 5.1% energyperiod 2.2 · power 2.15e-4 · 5.1% energyperiod 2.0 · power 7.78e-4 · 18.4% energyperiod 2.0 · power 7.78e-4 · 18.4% energy50% by T=3.4h#1 dominantT=3.43h#2T=2.00h#3T=6.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 3.43h (freq 0.292) · concentrates 22.3% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 4.231e-3

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5258724 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
f★ empirical 8.00× · g(f★) 0.003%/barparametric μ/σ² 8.50× · μ 0.001% · σ 0.09%
μ per barmean
0.001%
σ per barvol
0.09%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
8.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
8.50×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
4.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
2.00×
industry default — survives model error
0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 2.12× leverage
Median CAGR/bar 0.001% · annualized Sharpe 24.94400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 2.12× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
0.011
annualized 24.94
μ per barafter L
0.002%
σ per barafter L
0.19%
VaR 95%5%
0.14%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.29%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.4%
0.89×0.95×1.00×1.06×1.11×1.17×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR 1000% · APY 1000% · Sharpe 17.53σ ann 206% · Sortino 20.06 · n 4999 · ⚠ capped (n=4999 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
0%481%963%1444%1926%2407%1000.0%APR (simple)1000.0%APY (compound)206.3%Ann. vol σ1752.9%Sharpe (ann)2006.2%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.0240.0250.0260.0270.0280.029t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 11:00:50 UTC
Snapshot age
5.8s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 11:00:56 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
1175a325f7d1dde3a1f09ff5798b0abbb0a975d9657123fd275736094f4daf4a · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany94.4¢HL PREDSpain90.3¢HL PREDUruguay66.6¢POLYMARKETWill Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?22¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$64,466HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,672.2HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$60.98

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$1.67K
bid $1.27K · ask $403
Depth within 50bp
$15.48K
bid $5.90K · ask $9.58K
Mid price
0.026640
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
10.5bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.034
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.071
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-stbl/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.0266659.24bp0.0266723FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.02671427.83bp0.02681318FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.02673234.40bp0.02685320PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.0266265.26bp0.0266261FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.02653240.40bp0.02638420FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.02652343.76bp0.02638420PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.250e-5
0.00125% / hr
Annualised APR
10.958%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
33.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
33.3d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-10.958%33.3d333.3d
SHORTRECEIVE10.958%33.3d333.3d

/api/asset/hl-stbl/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$14.43M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-stbl/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ BID-LEAN · +0.114 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
11 / 13
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$7.52M
real volume
Sell weight
$5.98M
real volume
Net delta
$1.54M
buyers net
Imbalance
11.41%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
11.4%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-stbl/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 6 found · deepest 3.11% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-13 22:00:00Z2.0h0.026541→0.0257163.108%3
#22026-06-14 08:00:00Z3.0h0.027163→0.0265872.121%4
#32026-06-14 02:00:00Z2.0h0.025975→0.0254601.983%3

/api/asset/hl-stbl/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
206.26%
σ per bar = 0.000899
Mean return (annualised)
3615.60%
μ per bar = 0.000007
Sharpe (rf=0)
17.53
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
4.80%
peak 0.03 → trough 0.03 over 1826 bars

/api/asset/hl-stbl/risk · same metrics, JSON