HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

STRK

STRK-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-strk · fresh · feed 6s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -0.12%
realized vol (ann.)
68.49%
max drawdown
1.76%
sharpe
-49.05
ulcer index
0.94%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.87%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.05%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-3562.22
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
1.54%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.92
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-2188.10
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.92
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-0.12%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
8.23%
signalNEUTRALconfidence 35%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 8.8bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-strk/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH5.9s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.034
24h Δ · live
-0.12%
24h vol · live
$0.4M
STRK · live 24h price
n=24 · μ=0.0347 · σ=0.0002 · range [0.0342, 0.0350] · R²=0.245▼ FALLING -0.87%σ LOW 0.58%LAST 0.03420.03500.03480.03460.03440.0342μ = 0.0347max 0.0350min 0.0342dataMA(4)OLS R²=0.25μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
24 closes · last $0.03
Funding direction · live
Long fee 47.5%Short fee 52.5%SHORT FEE52.5%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.998 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
47.5%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
52.5%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.000939% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=24 · Σ=11,270,248 · μ=469593.7 · σ=460679.1 · CV=0.98BURSTYcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=140518,3901,036,7791,555,1692,073,559μ = 4695942,073,558.950%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 2073559 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
5.9s
$mark $
$0.0342
$mid $
$0.0342
◉prev-day close
$0.0342
Δ24h Δ %
-0.117%
$24h vol $
$392.01k
◐open interest $
$2.68M
%funding (1h)
0.000939%
%funding (yr)
+8.23%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=24 · μ=0.0347 · σ=0.0002 · range [0.0342, 0.0350] · R²=0.245▼ FALLING -0.87%σ LOW 0.58%LAST 0.03420.03500.03480.03460.03440.0342μ = 0.0347max 0.0350min 0.0342dataMA(4)OLS R²=0.25μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.0342 · 24h -0.12% · range $[0.0342, 0.0350]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=24 · up 15 · down 9 (63% up) · range [0.0341, 0.0355] · σ=0.0002 · CV=0.01 · bodyµ=33%CONSOLIDATINGCLOSE 0.0342 vs OPEN 0.0342 (-0.09%)&#9660; CLOSE 0.03420.03550.03510.03480.03440.0341μ close = 0.0347O0.034 H0.035 L0.034 C0.035 (+0.79%)O0.034 H0.035 L0.034 C0.035 (+0.79%)O0.034 H0.035 L0.034 C0.035 (+0.78%)O0.034 H0.035 L0.034 C0.035 (+0.78%)O0.035 H0.035 L0.035 C0.035 (+0.23%)O0.035 H0.035 L0.035 C0.035 (+0.23%)O0.035 H0.035 L0.035 C0.035 (+0.14%)O0.035 H0.035 L0.035 C0.035 (+0.14%)O0.035 H0.035 L0.035 C0.035 (+0.52%)O0.035 H0.035 L0.035 C0.035 (+0.52%)O0.035 H0.035 L0.034 C0.035 (-0.49%)O0.035 H0.035 L0.034 C0.035 (-0.49%)O0.035 H0.035 L0.035 C0.035 (+0.17%)O0.035 H0.035 L0.035 C0.035 (+0.17%)O0.035 H0.035 L0.035 C0.035 (+0.14%)O0.035 H0.035 L0.035 C0.035 (+0.14%)O0.035 H0.035 L0.035 C0.035 (+0.03%)O0.035 H0.035 L0.035 C0.035 (+0.03%)O0.035 H0.035 L0.035 C0.035 (+0.11%)O0.035 H0.035 L0.035 C0.035 (+0.11%)O0.035 H0.035 L0.035 C0.035 (+0.55%)O0.035 H0.035 L0.035 C0.035 (+0.55%)O0.035 H0.035 L0.035 C0.035 (-0.43%)O0.035 H0.035 L0.035 C0.035 (-0.43%)O0.035 H0.035 L0.035 C0.035 (-0.29%)O0.035 H0.035 L0.035 C0.035 (-0.29%)O0.035 H0.035 L0.034 C0.035 (-0.23%)O0.035 H0.035 L0.034 C0.035 (-0.23%)O0.035 H0.035 L0.035 C0.035 (+0.20%)O0.035 H0.035 L0.035 C0.035 (+0.20%)O0.035 H0.035 L0.035 C0.035 (-0.06%)O0.035 H0.035 L0.035 C0.035 (-0.06%)O0.035 H0.035 L0.035 C0.035 (+0.69%)O0.035 H0.035 L0.035 C0.035 (+0.69%)O0.035 H0.035 L0.035 C0.035 (+0.06%)O0.035 H0.035 L0.035 C0.035 (+0.06%)O0.035 H0.035 L0.035 C0.035 (+0.17%)O0.035 H0.035 L0.035 C0.035 (+0.17%)O0.035 H0.035 L0.035 C0.035 (-0.69%)O0.035 H0.035 L0.035 C0.035 (-0.69%)O0.035 H0.035 L0.035 C0.035 (-0.29%)O0.035 H0.035 L0.035 C0.035 (-0.29%)-0.9%O0.035 H0.035 L0.034 C0.034 (-0.87%)O0.035 H0.035 L0.034 C0.034 (-0.87%)O0.034 H0.035 L0.034 C0.034 (+0.53%)O0.034 H0.035 L0.034 C0.034 (+0.53%)O0.034 H0.035 L0.034 C0.034 (-0.61%)O0.034 H0.035 L0.034 C0.034 (-0.61%)#1#5#9#13#17#21up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(4) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
24 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=24 · Σ=11,270,248 · μ=469593.7 · σ=460679.1 · CV=0.98BURSTYcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=140518,3901,036,7791,555,1692,073,559μ = 469594180,489.6 · 8.7% peak180,489.6 · 8.7% peak600,528.5 · 29.0% peak600,528.5 · 29.0% peak388,643.8 · 18.7% peak388,643.8 · 18.7% peak317,261 · 15.3% peak317,261 · 15.3% peak435,082.8 · 21.0% peak435,082.8 · 21.0% peak1,148,278.9 · 55.4% peak1,148,278.9 · 55.4% peak1,151,870.2 · 55.6% peak1,151,870.2 · 55.6% peak255,822.3 · 12.3% peak255,822.3 · 12.3% peak228,813.1 · 11.0% peak228,813.1 · 11.0% peak363,588.7 · 17.5% peak363,588.7 · 17.5% peak204,110.8 · 9.8% peak204,110.8 · 9.8% peak176,787.2 · 8.5% peak176,787.2 · 8.5% peak171,858.4 · 8.3% peak171,858.4 · 8.3% peak314,951.7 · 15.2% peak314,951.7 · 15.2% peak111,792.4 · 5.4% peak111,792.4 · 5.4% peak645,605.6 · 31.1% peak645,605.6 · 31.1% peak148,655.9 · 7.2% peak148,655.9 · 7.2% peak2,073,558.92,073,558.9 · 100.0% peak2,073,558.9 · 100.0% peak379,148.2 · 18.3% peak379,148.2 · 18.3% peak268,834.3 · 13.0% peak268,834.3 · 13.0% peak372,765.5 · 18.0% peak372,765.5 · 18.0% peak1,042,971.1 · 50.3% peak1,042,971.1 · 50.3% peak203,113.1 · 9.8% peak203,113.1 · 9.8% peak85,715.9 · 4.1% peak85,715.9 · 4.1% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 11270248 · peak 2073559 · CV 0.98

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=23 · 12 bins · μ=-0.0004 · σ=0.0045 · skew=-0.26 (symmetric) · kurt=-0.82 (mesokurtic)32210 1-91.60bpbin -91.60bp · n=1 · 33.3% peakbin -91.60bp · n=1 · 33.3% peak 2-77.36bpbin -77.36bp · n=2 · 66.7% peakbin -77.36bp · n=2 · 66.7% peak 1-63.12bpbin -63.12bp · n=1 · 33.3% peakbin -63.12bp · n=1 · 33.3% peak 1-48.88bpbin -48.88bp · n=1 · 33.3% peakbin -48.88bp · n=1 · 33.3% peak 1-34.63bpbin -34.63bp · n=1 · 33.3% peakbin -34.63bp · n=1 · 33.3% peak 3-20.39bpbin -20.39bp · n=3 · 100.0% peakbin -20.39bp · n=3 · 100.0% peak 3-6.15bpbin -6.15bp · n=3 · 100.0% peakbin -6.15bp · n=3 · 100.0% peak 38.09bpbin 8.09bp · n=3 · 100.0% peakbin 8.09bp · n=3 · 100.0% peak 322.33bpbin 22.33bp · n=3 · 100.0% peakbin 22.33bp · n=3 · 100.0% peak36.58bp 350.82bpbin 50.82bp · n=3 · 100.0% peakbin 50.82bp · n=3 · 100.0% peak 265.06bpbin 65.06bp · n=2 · 66.7% peakbin 65.06bp · n=2 · 66.7% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=23 · positive 11 · negative 12
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=23 · skew=-0.23 · kurt=-0.74 · near 22 / mid 1 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.02 intercept=0.00MATCHES NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVEDUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.0342
Mid price
$0.0342
24h change
-0.12%
Mark–mid spread
0.00 bps
Prev-day close
$0.0342

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=24STRONGLY LEFT-SKEWED (G₁=-1.00)
μ MEAN0.0347$95% CI: [0.0346$, 0.0348$]
σ STD DEV0.0002$σ² = 0.000×10⁻⁴ · CV = 0.58%
med MEDIAN0.0348$Q₁ 0.0346$ · Q₃ 0.0349$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0008$ · IQR 0.0002$ (1.349σ→0.0003$)
min 0.0342$Q₁ 0.0346$med 0.0348$Q₃ 0.0349$max 0.0350$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-1.004left-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂0.381mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ < med · left-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.25
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 1.27
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.96
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDUNPROFITABLE · SR=-7.63
μᵣ MEAN / h-0.037961%drift is negative per h · |μ|/σ = 0.081
σᵣ STD / h0.465937%σ²ᵣ = 0.217×10⁻⁴ · CV = 12.27×
σ ANNUALISED43.61%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.466%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)-7.63negative edge
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)-7.24downside drag
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)-100.00drawdown overwhelms returns
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.24approximately symmetric
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.61mesokurtic · normal-like tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 0.95
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown > returns · adverseCR = -100.00
EXPECTED EDGE-332.54%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKELEVATED · 95% VaR 0.73%
VaR₉₅ (h)0.727%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)0.930%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)0.858%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN2.29%13h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−0.727%VaR₉₉−0.930%ES₉₅−0.858%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 13h duration
PEAK3.50$
−2.29% drawdown over 13h
3.42$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmild tail heaviness|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.18× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONuniform tailratio = 1.28× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +2.34% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
40.6 · neutral
Bollinger %B
-0.101 · below lower band
Bollinger upper
$0.0352
Bollinger MA
$0.0347
Bollinger lower
$0.0343

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.31 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.306within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.325lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT1.064strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-2.674significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 1.064
H = 1.064STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.306k=2+0.325k=3-0.187k=4+0.089k=5-0.3060+1−1+0.42−0.42+ momentum (ρ > +0.42)− reversal (ρ < −0.42)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=2.67)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.31 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=2.67)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$392.01k
Open interest (USD)
$2.68M
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.15x
1h funding
0.000939%
Funding (annualised)
+8.23%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
-10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
-5.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
-2.500×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=23 bars · best 0.72% · worst -0.99% · typical |Δ| 0.37%MILD BEARISH -0.87%BEST+0.72%12hWORST-0.99%08hTYPICAL |Δ|0.37%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-0.87%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 1down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.03% · Σ -0.23%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.03% · Σ +0.19%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.10% · Σ -0.83%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -0.87%+1.44%-0.87%0.72% · 12h0.72% · 12h0.72%12h★ BEST0.03% · 13h0.03% · 13h0.03%13h0.06% · 14h0.06% · 14h0.06%14h0.54% · 15h0.54% · 15h0.54%15h-0.57% · 16h-0.57% · 16h-0.57%16h0.29% · 17h0.29% · 17h0.29%17h-0.09% · 18h-0.09% · 18h-0.09%18h0.03% · 19h0.03% · 19h0.03%19h-0.06% · 20h-0.06% · 20h-0.06%20h0.49% · 21h0.49% · 21h0.49%21h-0.40% · 22h-0.40% · 22h-0.40%22h-0.52% · 23h-0.52% · 23h-0.52%23h-0.17% · 00h-0.17% · 00h-0.17%00h0.23% · 01h0.23% · 01h0.23%01h-0.20% · 02h-0.20% · 02h-0.20%02h0.60% · 03h0.60% · 03h0.60%03h-0.03% · 04h-0.03% · 04h-0.03%04h0.23% · 05h0.23% · 05h0.23%05h-0.72% · 06h-0.72% · 06h-0.72%06h-0.17% · 07h-0.17% · 07h-0.17%07h-0.99% · 08h-0.99% · 08h-0.99%08h▼ WORST0.55% · 09h0.55% · 09h0.55%09h-0.73% · 10h-0.73% · 10h-0.73%10hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+0.19%)RUNSup max 4 · down max 3BREADTH48% up · 52% down
11 up bars · 12 down · best 0.72% · worst -0.99% · typical |Δ| 0.366%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=24 barsLOSS WITH MODERATE DD (-0.89%)FINAL-0.89%MAX DD-2.30%RECOVERYONGOING · 13 barsMAX RUN-UP+1.44%UNDERWATER18/24 (75%)STREAK↘ 1EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9911 · peak 1.0144 · range [0.9911, 1.0144]1.01440.9911break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0144UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -2.30% · moderate0%-2.30%▼ TROUGH -2.30%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 2 total#1 -2.30%bar 12-24 · 13 bars · ONGOING#2 -0.57%bar 6-10 · 5 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -2.30%)RECOVERYongoing · 13 barsTIME UNDER WATER75% of session · 18/24 bars
final equity 0.9911 (-0.89%) · max DD -2.30% · time-under-water 18/24 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 5 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +7 / −12 (37% positive) · μ=-7.58 · σ=34.88MIXED EDGELAST -62.53 (-1.58σ vs μ)69.6034.800.00-34.80-69.60μ = -7.5828.7628.7615.5515.5510.2310.238.948.94-24.02-24.0249.9649.96-1.68-1.68-21.76-21.76-31.71-31.71-16.49-16.49-69.60-69.60-2.47-2.4724.0024.0051.0851.08-4.38-4.38-3.30-3.30-62.49-62.49-32.07-32.07-62.53-62.53v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -62.526 · range [-69.60, 51.08] · μ -7.578 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=39.2029 · σ=9.9290 · range [23.1161, 59.9046] · R²=0.210▲ RISING +21.24%σ EXTREME 25.33%LAST 57.558859.904650.707541.510332.313223.1161μ = 39.2029max 59.9046min 23.1161dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.21μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 57.56% · range [23.12%, 59.90%] · μ 39.20% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +1 / −18 (5% positive) · μ=-0.363 · σ=0.294MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.708 (-1.17σ vs μ)0.7570.3780.000-0.378-0.757μ = -0.363-0.370-0.370-0.655-0.655-0.684-0.684-0.693-0.693-0.465-0.465-0.242-0.242-0.549-0.549-0.037-0.037-0.001-0.001-0.035-0.0350.2070.207-0.160-0.160-0.636-0.636-0.757-0.757-0.301-0.301-0.076-0.076-0.209-0.209-0.534-0.534-0.708-0.708v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.708 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
ALL TESTS PASS · data behaves as nominal0 reject·6 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
0.5846
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7466
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
9.5693
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0874
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.3360
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6109
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
1.5062
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1320
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (16 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.3932
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0801
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=2

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.8644
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0623
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.611 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=11 bins · noise floor μ=2.17e-5 · top T=2.09h (32.3%) · top-3 cover 67.3%2 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)7.7e-55.8e-53.9e-51.9e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 23.0 · power 4.69e-6 · 2.0% energyperiod 23.0 · power 4.69e-6 · 2.0% energyperiod 11.5 · power 1.88e-5 · 7.9% energyperiod 11.5 · power 1.88e-5 · 7.9% energyperiod 7.7 · power 3.71e-5 · 15.5% energyperiod 7.7 · power 3.71e-5 · 15.5% energyperiod 5.8 · power 2.23e-6 · 0.9% energyperiod 5.8 · power 2.23e-6 · 0.9% energyperiod 4.6 · power 1.10e-6 · 0.5% energyperiod 4.6 · power 1.10e-6 · 0.5% energyperiod 3.8 · power 7.26e-6 · 3.0% energyperiod 3.8 · power 7.26e-6 · 3.0% energyperiod 3.3 · power 8.38e-6 · 3.5% energyperiod 3.3 · power 8.38e-6 · 3.5% energyperiod 2.9 · power 1.77e-5 · 7.4% energyperiod 2.9 · power 1.77e-5 · 7.4% energyperiod 2.6 · power 1.80e-5 · 7.6% energyperiod 2.6 · power 1.80e-5 · 7.6% energyperiod 2.3 · power 4.65e-5 · 19.5% energyperiod 2.3 · power 4.65e-5 · 19.5% energyperiod 2.1 · power 7.71e-5 · 32.3% energyperiod 2.1 · power 7.71e-5 · 32.3% energy50% by T=2.3h#1 dominantT=2.09h#2T=2.30h#3T=7.67hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.09h (freq 0.478) · concentrates 32.3% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 2.388e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5258724 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.000% per barparametric μ/σ² short edge (μ<0) · μ -0.000% · σ 0.04%
μ per barmean
-0.000%
σ per barvol
0.04%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-23.80×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.00%0.02%0.05%0.07%0.10%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -18.83400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.008
annualized -18.83
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.00%
VaR 95%5%
0.01%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.01%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.0%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -1000% · APY -100% · Sharpe -19.98σ ann 84% · Sortino -13.60 · n 4999 · ⚠ capped (n=4999 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
-2398%-1898%-1398%-899%-399%101%-1000.0%APR (simple)-100.0%APY (compound)84.0%Ann. vol σ-1998.1%Sharpe (ann)-1360.5%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.0330.0340.0340.0350.0360.037t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 11:00:50 UTC
Snapshot age
5.9s
History points
24 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 11:00:57 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
588a17b37c6219f308f86053867b103d1a3dc497ffb2542349e5bed35d155f75 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$4.45K
bid $2.38K · ask $2.06K
Depth within 10bp
$30.09K
bid $12.12K · ask $17.97K
Depth within 50bp
$212.89K
bid $111.35K · ask $101.54K
Mid price
0.034220
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
5.8bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.083
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.045
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-strk/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.0342302.92bp0.0342301FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.0342385.24bp0.0342402FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.03431126.51bp0.03438014FILLED
SELL$1.00K0.0342102.92bp0.0342101FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.0341996.03bp0.0341903FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.03413325.39bp0.03406015FILLED

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+9.390e-6
0.00094% / hr
Annualised APR
8.231%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
44.4d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
44.4d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-8.231%44.4d1.22y
SHORTRECEIVE8.231%44.4d1.22y

/api/asset/hl-strk/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 24 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★24$11.27M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-strk/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ ASK-LEAN · -0.248 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
11 / 12
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$4.17M
real volume
Sell weight
$6.92M
real volume
Net delta
$2.75M
sellers net
Imbalance
-24.81%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
24.8%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 24-record window./api/asset/hl-strk/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 3 found · deepest 2.03% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-14 06:00:00Z4.0h0.034920→0.0342102.033%5
#22026-06-13 23:00:00Z1.0h0.035010→0.0346301.085%2
#32026-06-13 16:00:00Z0ms0.034980→0.0347800.572%1

/api/asset/hl-strk/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
83.97%
σ per bar = 0.000366
Mean return (annualised)
-1677.79%
μ per bar = -0.000003
Sharpe (rf=0)
-19.98
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
3.92%
peak 0.04 → trough 0.03 over 2406 bars

/api/asset/hl-strk/risk · same metrics, JSON