HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

SUPER

SUPER-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-super · fresh · feed 1s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▲ 0.86%
realized vol (ann.)
52.80%
max drawdown
0.88%
sharpe
40.35
ulcer index
0.42%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.35%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.03%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
5125.81
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
0.79%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
1.09
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
2711.58
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.09
upside/downside
roll spread
0.2 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
0.86%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.95%
signalNEUTRALconfidence 35%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 8.2bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-super/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH1.0s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.098
24h Δ · live
0.86%
24h vol · live
$0.2M
SUPER · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.0977 · σ=0.0005 · range [0.0969, 0.0992] · R²=0.022▲ RISING +0.75%σ LOW 0.49%LAST 0.09830.09920.09860.09800.09750.0969μ = 0.0977max 0.0992min 0.0969dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.02μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.10
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.1%Short fee 51.9%SHORT FEE51.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001250% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=1,767,836 · μ=70713.4 · σ=61170.1 · CV=0.87BURSTYcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=14082,509165,019247,528330,037μ = 70713330,03750%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 330037 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
1.0s
$mark $
$0.0983
$mid $
$0.0983
◉prev-day close
$0.0975
Δ24h Δ %
+0.855%
$24h vol $
$168.29k
◐open interest $
$149.56k
%funding (1h)
0.001250%
%funding (yr)
+10.95%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.0977 · σ=0.0005 · range [0.0969, 0.0992] · R²=0.022▲ RISING +0.75%σ LOW 0.49%LAST 0.09830.09920.09860.09800.09750.0969μ = 0.0977max 0.0992min 0.0969dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.02μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.0983 · 24h 0.86% · range $[0.0969, 0.0992]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 13 · down 12 (52% up) · range [0.0967, 0.0999] · σ=0.0005 · CV=0.00 · bodyµ=47%BULLISH +0.64%CLOSE 0.0983 vs OPEN 0.0977 (+0.64%)&#9650; CLOSE 0.09830.09990.09910.09830.09750.0967μ close = 0.0977O0.098 H0.098 L0.097 C0.098 (-0.11%)O0.098 H0.098 L0.097 C0.098 (-0.11%)O0.098 H0.098 L0.097 C0.097 (-0.23%)O0.098 H0.098 L0.097 C0.097 (-0.23%)O0.097 H0.098 L0.097 C0.098 (+0.33%)O0.097 H0.098 L0.097 C0.098 (+0.33%)O0.098 H0.099 L0.098 C0.098 (+0.57%)O0.098 H0.099 L0.098 C0.098 (+0.57%)O0.098 H0.098 L0.097 C0.098 (-0.44%)O0.098 H0.098 L0.097 C0.098 (-0.44%)O0.098 H0.098 L0.097 C0.098 (-0.13%)O0.098 H0.098 L0.097 C0.098 (-0.13%)O0.097 H0.098 L0.097 C0.097 (-0.04%)O0.097 H0.098 L0.097 C0.097 (-0.04%)O0.098 H0.098 L0.097 C0.098 (+0.53%)O0.098 H0.098 L0.097 C0.098 (+0.53%)O0.098 H0.098 L0.098 C0.098 (+0.01%)O0.098 H0.098 L0.098 C0.098 (+0.01%)O0.098 H0.098 L0.098 C0.098 (+0.31%)O0.098 H0.098 L0.098 C0.098 (+0.31%)O0.098 H0.098 L0.098 C0.098 (-0.47%)O0.098 H0.098 L0.098 C0.098 (-0.47%)O0.098 H0.098 L0.098 C0.098 (+0.16%)O0.098 H0.098 L0.098 C0.098 (+0.16%)O0.098 H0.098 L0.098 C0.098 (-0.36%)O0.098 H0.098 L0.098 C0.098 (-0.36%)1.5%O0.098 H0.100 L0.098 C0.099 (+1.53%)O0.098 H0.100 L0.098 C0.099 (+1.53%)O0.099 H0.099 L0.098 C0.098 (-1.05%)O0.099 H0.099 L0.098 C0.098 (-1.05%)O0.098 H0.098 L0.098 C0.098 (-0.11%)O0.098 H0.098 L0.098 C0.098 (-0.11%)O0.098 H0.098 L0.097 C0.097 (-0.73%)O0.098 H0.098 L0.097 C0.097 (-0.73%)O0.097 H0.097 L0.097 C0.097 (+0.07%)O0.097 H0.097 L0.097 C0.097 (+0.07%)O0.097 H0.098 L0.097 C0.097 (+0.08%)O0.097 H0.098 L0.097 C0.097 (+0.08%)O0.097 H0.097 L0.097 C0.097 (-0.52%)O0.097 H0.097 L0.097 C0.097 (-0.52%)O0.097 H0.098 L0.097 C0.097 (+0.45%)O0.097 H0.098 L0.097 C0.097 (+0.45%)O0.097 H0.098 L0.097 C0.098 (+0.22%)O0.097 H0.098 L0.097 C0.098 (+0.22%)O0.098 H0.098 L0.097 C0.097 (-0.55%)O0.098 H0.098 L0.097 C0.097 (-0.55%)O0.097 H0.098 L0.097 C0.098 (+0.54%)O0.097 H0.098 L0.097 C0.098 (+0.54%)O0.098 H0.098 L0.098 C0.098 (+0.51%)O0.098 H0.098 L0.098 C0.098 (+0.51%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=1,767,836 · μ=70713.4 · σ=61170.1 · CV=0.87BURSTYcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=14082,509165,019247,528330,037μ = 7071359,677 · 18.1% peak59,677 · 18.1% peak85,414 · 25.9% peak85,414 · 25.9% peak48,064 · 14.6% peak48,064 · 14.6% peak36,807 · 11.2% peak36,807 · 11.2% peak78,621 · 23.8% peak78,621 · 23.8% peak58,220 · 17.6% peak58,220 · 17.6% peak52,177 · 15.8% peak52,177 · 15.8% peak53,684 · 16.3% peak53,684 · 16.3% peak75,806 · 23.0% peak75,806 · 23.0% peak32,832 · 9.9% peak32,832 · 9.9% peak37,384 · 11.3% peak37,384 · 11.3% peak29,195 · 8.8% peak29,195 · 8.8% peak104,287 · 31.6% peak104,287 · 31.6% peak330,037330,037 · 100.0% peak330,037 · 100.0% peak65,387 · 19.8% peak65,387 · 19.8% peak59,848 · 18.1% peak59,848 · 18.1% peak53,980 · 16.4% peak53,980 · 16.4% peak54,895 · 16.6% peak54,895 · 16.6% peak158,152 · 47.9% peak158,152 · 47.9% peak56,611 · 17.2% peak56,611 · 17.2% peak87,413 · 26.5% peak87,413 · 26.5% peak52,095 · 15.8% peak52,095 · 15.8% peak21,766 · 6.6% peak21,766 · 6.6% peak54,503 · 16.5% peak54,503 · 16.5% peak20,981 · 6.4% peak20,981 · 6.4% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 1767836 · peak 330037 · CV 0.87

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=0.0003 · σ=0.0053 · skew=0.48 (symmetric) · kurt=0.02 (mesokurtic)43210 1-92.17bpbin -92.17bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin -92.17bp · n=1 · 25.0% peak 1-70.98bpbin -70.98bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin -70.98bp · n=1 · 25.0% peak 4-49.78bpbin -49.78bp · n=4 · 100.0% peakbin -49.78bp · n=4 · 100.0% peak 3-28.58bpbin -28.58bp · n=3 · 75.0% peakbin -28.58bp · n=3 · 75.0% peak 4-7.39bpbin -7.39bp · n=4 · 100.0% peakbin -7.39bp · n=4 · 100.0% peak 313.81bpbin 13.81bp · n=3 · 75.0% peakbin 13.81bp · n=3 · 75.0% peak 235.01bpbin 35.01bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakbin 35.01bp · n=2 · 50.0% peak 456.20bpbin 56.20bp · n=4 · 100.0% peakbin 56.20bp · n=4 · 100.0% peak 177.40bpbin 77.40bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin 77.40bp · n=1 · 25.0% peak98.60bp119.79bp 1140.99bpbin 140.99bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin 140.99bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 11 · negative 13
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=0.53 · kurt=0.40 · near 23 / mid 1 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.01 intercept=-0.00APPROXIMATELY NORMALUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.0983
Mid price
$0.0983
24h change
+0.86%
Mark–mid spread
0.51 bps
Prev-day close
$0.0975

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25RIGHT-SKEWED (G₁=0.81)
μ MEAN0.0977$95% CI: [0.0976$, 0.0979$]
σ STD DEV0.0005$σ² = 0.002×10⁻⁴ · CV = 0.49%
med MEDIAN0.0977$Q₁ 0.0975$ · Q₃ 0.0980$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0023$ · IQR 0.0005$ (1.349σ→0.0006$)
min 0.0969$Q₁ 0.0975$med 0.0977$Q₃ 0.0980$max 0.0992$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.809right-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂1.070leptokurtic · fat tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.16
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 1.19
range ↔ σwide tails (range > 4σ)range / σ = 4.77
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDEXCEPTIONAL EDGE · SR=5.18
μᵣ MEAN / h+0.031043%drift is positive per h · |μ|/σ = 0.055
σᵣ STD / h0.560922%σ²ᵣ = 0.315×10⁻⁴ · CV = 18.07×
σ ANNUALISED52.50%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.561%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)5.18excellent · top-decile
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)6.27strong downside-adjusted
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)100.00exceptional DD control
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁0.57right-skewed · heavy positive tail
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂0.80mesokurtic · normal-like tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 1.21
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown control exceptionalCR = 100.00
EXPECTED EDGE+271.93%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKELEVATED · 95% VaR 0.69%
VaR₉₅ (h)0.689%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)0.954%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)0.868%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN2.30%6h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−0.689%VaR₉₉−0.954%ES₉₅−0.868%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 6h duration
PEAK9.92$
−2.30% drawdown over 6h
9.69$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmild tail heaviness|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.26× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONmoderate extreme-tail concentrationratio = 1.39× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +2.36% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
56.8 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.790 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.0988
Bollinger MA
$0.0978
Bollinger lower
$0.0967

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.34 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.338within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.063lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.497random-walk
OLS TREND · t-STAT-0.712fails 5% test
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]random-walk · H = 0.497
H = 0.497RANDOM-WALK
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.338k=2+0.063k=3-0.222k=4+0.158k=5-0.0520+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]NOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=0.71)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.34 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.34moderate · 1-step ahead inferrable|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCENOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=0.71)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$168.29k
Open interest (USD)
$149.56k
Vol / OI (turnover)
1.13x
1h funding
0.001250%
Funding (annualised)
+10.95%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
9.866× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
4.933× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
2.467×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 1.52% · worst -1.03% · typical |Δ| 0.44%MILD BULLISH +0.75%BEST+1.52%01hWORST-1.03%02hTYPICAL |Δ|0.44%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+0.75%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↗ 2up-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.13% · Σ -1.07%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.27% · Σ +2.13%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.04% · Σ -0.31%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +0.75%+1.58%-0.75%-0.32% · 13h-0.32% · 13h-0.32%13h0.40% · 14h0.40% · 14h0.40%14h0.55% · 15h0.55% · 15h0.55%15h-0.58% · 16h-0.58% · 16h-0.58%16h-0.00% · 17h-0.00% · 17h-0.00%17h-0.22% · 18h-0.22% · 18h-0.22%18h0.64% · 19h0.64% · 19h0.64%19h-0.12% · 20h-0.12% · 20h-0.12%20h0.27% · 21h0.27% · 21h0.27%21h-0.44% · 22h-0.44% · 22h-0.44%22h0.14% · 23h0.14% · 23h0.14%23h-0.26% · 00h-0.26% · 00h-0.26%00h1.52% · 01h1.52% · 01h1.52%01h★ BEST-1.03% · 02h-1.03% · 02h-1.03%02h▼ WORST-0.17% · 03h-0.17% · 03h-0.17%03h-0.71% · 04h-0.71% · 04h-0.71%04h-0.11% · 05h-0.11% · 05h-0.11%05h0.10% · 06h0.10% · 06h0.10%06h-0.41% · 07h-0.41% · 07h-0.41%07h0.61% · 08h0.61% · 08h0.61%08h0.16% · 09h0.16% · 09h0.16%09h-0.51% · 10h-0.51% · 10h-0.51%10h0.47% · 11h0.47% · 11h0.47%11h0.75% · 12h0.75% · 12h0.75%12hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+2.13%)RUNSup max 2 · down max 4BREADTH46% up · 54% down
11 up bars · 13 down · best 1.52% · worst -1.03% · typical |Δ| 0.437%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsPROFITABLE +0.71%FINAL+0.71%MAX DD-2.31%RECOVERYONGOING · 11 barsMAX RUN-UP+1.57%UNDERWATER21/25 (84%)STREAK↗ 2EQUITY CURVE · end 1.0071 · peak 1.0157 · range [0.9922, 1.0157]1.01570.9922break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0157UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -2.31% · moderate0%-2.31%▼ TROUGH -2.31%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 3 total#1 -2.31%bar 15-25 · 11 bars · ONGOING#2 -0.80%bar 5-13 · 9 bars · recovered#3 -0.32%bar 2-2 · 1 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -2.31%)RECOVERYongoing · 11 barsTIME UNDER WATER84% of session · 21/25 bars
final equity 1.0071 (0.71%) · max DD -2.31% · time-under-water 21/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +9 / −10 (47% positive) · μ=-1.81 · σ=25.19MIXED EDGELAST 31.62 (+1.33σ vs μ)86.9843.490.00-43.49-86.98μ = -1.81-6.19-6.1925.5925.598.938.93-0.41-0.415.235.2310.9910.999.369.3624.6524.653.643.64-4.35-4.35-8.90-8.90-13.44-13.44-7.12-7.12-86.98-86.98-23.76-23.76-11.97-11.97-5.92-5.9214.6814.6831.6231.62v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 31.621 · range [-86.98, 31.62] · μ -1.808 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=53.0500 · σ=18.7200 · range [36.0187, 82.9466] · R²=0.020▲ RISING +23.07%σ EXTREME 35.29%LAST 50.034182.946671.214759.482747.750736.0187μ = 53.0500max 82.9466min 36.0187dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.02μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 50.03% · range [36.02%, 82.95%] · μ 53.05% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +0 / −19 (0% positive) · μ=-0.360 · σ=0.148MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.200 (+1.08σ vs μ)0.5990.3000.000-0.300-0.599μ = -0.360-0.227-0.227-0.192-0.192-0.480-0.480-0.280-0.280-0.515-0.515-0.599-0.599-0.418-0.418-0.252-0.252-0.594-0.594-0.508-0.508-0.430-0.430-0.424-0.424-0.344-0.344-0.199-0.199-0.244-0.244-0.111-0.111-0.325-0.325-0.495-0.495-0.200-0.200v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.200 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
1.9189
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3831
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
5.5403
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3535
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-3.1028
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0267
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonestationary · mean-reverting (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
1.2965
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1948
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (16 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.1513
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4418
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.5100
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1311
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.541 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=3.40e-5 · top T=2.00h (22.9%) · top-3 cover 55.2%2 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)9.3e-57.0e-54.7e-52.3e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 1.23e-5 · 3.0% energyperiod 24.0 · power 1.23e-5 · 3.0% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.80e-5 · 4.4% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.80e-5 · 4.4% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.91e-6 · 0.5% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.91e-6 · 0.5% energyperiod 6.0 · power 4.10e-5 · 10.0% energyperiod 6.0 · power 4.10e-5 · 10.0% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.74e-5 · 4.3% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.74e-5 · 4.3% energyperiod 4.0 · power 8.52e-6 · 2.1% energyperiod 4.0 · power 8.52e-6 · 2.1% energyperiod 3.4 · power 6.29e-5 · 15.4% energyperiod 3.4 · power 6.29e-5 · 15.4% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.26e-5 · 3.1% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.26e-5 · 3.1% energyperiod 2.7 · power 5.75e-5 · 14.1% energyperiod 2.7 · power 5.75e-5 · 14.1% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.38e-5 · 3.4% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.38e-5 · 3.4% energyperiod 2.2 · power 6.93e-5 · 17.0% energyperiod 2.2 · power 6.93e-5 · 17.0% energyperiod 2.0 · power 9.34e-5 · 22.9% energyperiod 2.0 · power 9.34e-5 · 22.9% energy50% by T=2.7h#1 dominantT=2.00h#2T=2.18h#3T=3.43hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.00h (freq 0.500) · concentrates 22.9% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 4.085e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5257847 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
f★ empirical 8.00× · g(f★) 0.000%/barparametric μ/σ² 13.03× · μ 0.000% · σ 0.03%
μ per barmean
0.000%
σ per barvol
0.03%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
8.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
13.03×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
4.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
2.00×
industry default — survives model error
0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 3.00× leverage
Median CAGR/bar 0.000% · annualized Sharpe 6.22400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 3.00× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
0.003
annualized 6.22
μ per barafter L
0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.08%
VaR 95%5%
0.10%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.20%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.2%
0.92×0.95×0.99×1.02×1.05×1.09×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR 444% · APY 1000% · Sharpe 7.60σ ann 58% · Sortino 5.21 · n 4999 · ⚠ capped (n=4999 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
0%240%480%720%960%1200%443.7%APR (simple)1000.0%APY (compound)58.4%Ann. vol σ760.3%Sharpe (ann)521.5%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.0930.0950.0970.0990.1000.102t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 12:20:34 UTC
Snapshot age
1.0s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 12:20:35 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
5ada3500f93c1fb5a20a14241b70e2b35327d981a39d101f2b539aa7ced7268f · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$10.18K
bid $4.71K · ask $5.47K
Mid price
0.098344
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
21.2bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.248
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.578
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-super/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.09846412.22bp0.0984805FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.09869635.77bp0.09900620PARTIAL
BUY$100.00K0.09869635.77bp0.09900620PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.09821712.92bp0.0981867FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.09811023.78bp0.09793920PARTIAL
SELL$100.00K0.09811023.78bp0.09793920PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.250e-5
0.00125% / hr
Annualised APR
10.958%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
33.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
33.3d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-10.958%33.3d333.3d
SHORTRECEIVE10.958%33.3d333.3d

/api/asset/hl-super/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$1.77M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-super/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ BID-LEAN · +0.058 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
11 / 13
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$903.76K
real volume
Sell weight
$804.40K
real volume
Net delta
$99.37K
buyers net
Imbalance
5.82%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
5.8%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-super/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 4 found · deepest 2.00% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-14 02:00:00Z4.0h0.099173→0.0971931.997%5
#22026-06-13 16:00:00Z2.0h0.098237→0.0974510.800%3
#32026-06-14 00:00:00Z0ms0.098226→0.0976810.555%1

/api/asset/hl-super/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
58.36%
σ per bar = 0.000254
Mean return (annualised)
443.68%
μ per bar = 0.000001
Sharpe (rf=0)
7.60
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
1.39%
peak 0.10 → trough 0.10 over 790 bars

/api/asset/hl-super/risk · same metrics, JSON