HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

SUSHI

SUSHI-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-sushi · fresh · feed 3s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -1.39%
realized vol (ann.)
55.94%
max drawdown
1.93%
sharpe
-61.22
ulcer index
0.80%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.66%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.04%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-4298.12
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
1.80%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.89
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-1906.16
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.89
upside/downside
roll spread
0.3 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-1.39%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.95%
signalNEUTRALconfidence 40%
  • 24h change -1.39%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 15.1bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-sushi/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH3.3s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.172
24h Δ · live
-1.39%
24h vol · live
$0.1M
SUSHI · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.1749 · σ=0.0009 · range [0.1722, 0.1766] · R²=0.356▼ FALLING -1.83%σ LOW 0.53%LAST 0.17220.17660.17550.17440.17330.1722μ = 0.1749max 0.1766min 0.1722dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.36μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.17
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.1%Short fee 51.9%SHORT FEE51.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001250% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=575,997 · μ=23039.9 · σ=22190.8 · CV=0.96BURSTYcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=11023,66847,33671,00494,673μ = 2304094,672.650%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 94673 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
3.3s
$mark $
$0.1723
$mid $
$0.1723
◉prev-day close
$0.1748
Δ24h Δ %
-1.390%
$24h vol $
$99.45k
◐open interest $
$159.31k
%funding (1h)
0.001250%
%funding (yr)
+10.95%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.1749 · σ=0.0009 · range [0.1722, 0.1766] · R²=0.356▼ FALLING -1.83%σ LOW 0.53%LAST 0.17220.17660.17550.17440.17330.1722μ = 0.1749max 0.1766min 0.1722dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.36μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.1723 · 24h -1.39% · range $[0.1722, 0.1766]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 11 · down 14 (44% up) · range [0.1721, 0.1772] · σ=0.0009 · CV=0.01 · bodyµ=40%BEARISH -1.86%CLOSE 0.1722 vs OPEN 0.1755 (-1.86%)&#9660; CLOSE 0.17220.17720.17590.17470.17340.1721μ close = 0.1749O0.175 H0.176 L0.175 C0.175 (-0.03%)O0.175 H0.176 L0.175 C0.175 (-0.03%)O0.175 H0.177 L0.175 C0.176 (+0.43%)O0.175 H0.177 L0.175 C0.176 (+0.43%)O0.176 H0.176 L0.175 C0.176 (-0.41%)O0.176 H0.176 L0.175 C0.176 (-0.41%)O0.176 H0.176 L0.174 C0.175 (-0.77%)O0.176 H0.176 L0.174 C0.175 (-0.77%)O0.174 H0.175 L0.174 C0.174 (-0.14%)O0.174 H0.175 L0.174 C0.174 (-0.14%)O0.174 H0.176 L0.174 C0.175 (+0.48%)O0.174 H0.176 L0.174 C0.175 (+0.48%)O0.175 H0.176 L0.174 C0.175 (-0.14%)O0.175 H0.176 L0.174 C0.175 (-0.14%)O0.175 H0.177 L0.174 C0.177 (+0.78%)O0.175 H0.177 L0.174 C0.177 (+0.78%)O0.177 H0.177 L0.176 C0.176 (-0.61%)O0.177 H0.177 L0.176 C0.176 (-0.61%)O0.176 H0.176 L0.175 C0.175 (-0.31%)O0.176 H0.176 L0.175 C0.175 (-0.31%)O0.175 H0.176 L0.175 C0.175 (-0.01%)O0.175 H0.176 L0.175 C0.175 (-0.01%)O0.175 H0.176 L0.175 C0.176 (+0.07%)O0.175 H0.176 L0.175 C0.176 (+0.07%)O0.176 H0.176 L0.175 C0.175 (-0.32%)O0.176 H0.176 L0.175 C0.175 (-0.32%)O0.175 H0.176 L0.175 C0.176 (+0.41%)O0.175 H0.176 L0.175 C0.176 (+0.41%)O0.176 H0.176 L0.173 C0.174 (-1.01%)O0.176 H0.176 L0.173 C0.174 (-1.01%)O0.174 H0.175 L0.173 C0.174 (+0.19%)O0.174 H0.175 L0.173 C0.174 (+0.19%)O0.175 H0.175 L0.174 C0.174 (-0.33%)O0.175 H0.175 L0.174 C0.174 (-0.33%)O0.174 H0.175 L0.174 C0.174 (+0.04%)O0.174 H0.175 L0.174 C0.174 (+0.04%)O0.174 H0.175 L0.174 C0.175 (+0.20%)O0.174 H0.175 L0.174 C0.175 (+0.20%)O0.175 H0.176 L0.174 C0.176 (+0.42%)O0.175 H0.176 L0.174 C0.176 (+0.42%)O0.175 H0.176 L0.174 C0.174 (-0.51%)O0.175 H0.176 L0.174 C0.174 (-0.51%)O0.175 H0.175 L0.174 C0.175 (+0.10%)O0.175 H0.175 L0.174 C0.175 (+0.10%)O0.175 H0.175 L0.174 C0.174 (-0.59%)O0.175 H0.175 L0.174 C0.174 (-0.59%)O0.174 H0.175 L0.173 C0.174 (+0.11%)O0.174 H0.175 L0.173 C0.174 (+0.11%)-1.1%O0.174 H0.174 L0.172 C0.172 (-1.11%)O0.174 H0.174 L0.172 C0.172 (-1.11%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=575,997 · μ=23039.9 · σ=22190.8 · CV=0.96BURSTYcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=11023,66847,33671,00494,673μ = 2304011,222.4 · 11.9% peak11,222.4 · 11.9% peak93,824.4 · 99.1% peak93,824.4 · 99.1% peak27,478.1 · 29.0% peak27,478.1 · 29.0% peak28,181.7 · 29.8% peak28,181.7 · 29.8% peak7,666.6 · 8.1% peak7,666.6 · 8.1% peak26,529.7 · 28.0% peak26,529.7 · 28.0% peak10,764 · 11.4% peak10,764 · 11.4% peak9,523.5 · 10.1% peak9,523.5 · 10.1% peak13,426 · 14.2% peak13,426 · 14.2% peak12,180.8 · 12.9% peak12,180.8 · 12.9% peak94,672.694,672.6 · 100.0% peak94,672.6 · 100.0% peak18,279.9 · 19.3% peak18,279.9 · 19.3% peak24,732.3 · 26.1% peak24,732.3 · 26.1% peak20,989.2 · 22.2% peak20,989.2 · 22.2% peak13,844 · 14.6% peak13,844 · 14.6% peak15,231 · 16.1% peak15,231 · 16.1% peak8,935 · 9.4% peak8,935 · 9.4% peak16,054.9 · 17.0% peak16,054.9 · 17.0% peak14,166.6 · 15.0% peak14,166.6 · 15.0% peak22,153.1 · 23.4% peak22,153.1 · 23.4% peak19,639.1 · 20.7% peak19,639.1 · 20.7% peak18,375.1 · 19.4% peak18,375.1 · 19.4% peak17,438.6 · 18.4% peak17,438.6 · 18.4% peak17,885 · 18.9% peak17,885 · 18.9% peak12,803 · 13.5% peak12,803 · 13.5% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 575997 · peak 94673 · CV 0.96

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=-0.0008 · σ=0.0051 · skew=-0.32 (symmetric) · kurt=-0.49 (mesokurtic)43210 2-113.52bpbin -113.52bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakbin -113.52bp · n=2 · 50.0% peak-95.88bp-78.25bp 3-60.61bpbin -60.61bp · n=3 · 75.0% peakbin -60.61bp · n=3 · 75.0% peak 2-42.98bpbin -42.98bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakbin -42.98bp · n=2 · 50.0% peak 3-25.34bpbin -25.34bp · n=3 · 75.0% peakbin -25.34bp · n=3 · 75.0% peak 3-7.71bpbin -7.71bp · n=3 · 75.0% peakbin -7.71bp · n=3 · 75.0% peak 49.93bpbin 9.93bp · n=4 · 100.0% peakbin 9.93bp · n=4 · 100.0% peak 127.56bpbin 27.56bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin 27.56bp · n=1 · 25.0% peak 345.20bpbin 45.20bp · n=3 · 75.0% peakbin 45.20bp · n=3 · 75.0% peak 262.83bpbin 62.83bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakbin 62.83bp · n=2 · 50.0% peak 180.47bpbin 80.47bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin 80.47bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 11 · negative 13
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-0.37 · kurt=-0.33 · near 23 / mid 1 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.02 intercept=-0.00MATCHES NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVEDUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.1723
Mid price
$0.1723
24h change
-1.39%
Mark–mid spread
1.16 bps
Prev-day close
$0.1748

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25LEFT-SKEWED (G₁=-0.57)
μ MEAN0.1749$95% CI: [0.1745$, 0.1752$]
σ STD DEV0.0009$σ² = 0.009×10⁻⁴ · CV = 0.53%
med MEDIAN0.1751$Q₁ 0.1742$ · Q₃ 0.1756$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0044$ · IQR 0.0014$ (1.349σ→0.0013$)
min 0.1722$Q₁ 0.1742$med 0.1751$Q₃ 0.1756$max 0.1766$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.573left-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂0.563mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ < med · left-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.19
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 0.89
range ↔ σwide tails (range > 4σ)range / σ = 4.72
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDUNPROFITABLE · SR=-13.65
μᵣ MEAN / h-0.076939%drift is negative per h · |μ|/σ = 0.146
σᵣ STD / h0.527494%σ²ᵣ = 0.278×10⁻⁴ · CV = 6.86×
σ ANNUALISED49.37%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.527%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)-13.65negative edge
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)-12.36downside drag
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)-100.00drawdown overwhelms returns
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.40approximately symmetric
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.11mesokurtic · normal-like tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 0.91
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown > returns · adverseCR = -100.00
EXPECTED EDGE-673.98%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKHIGH · 95% VaR 1.03%
VaR₉₅ (h)1.035%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)1.194%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)1.160%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN2.49%17h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−1.035%VaR₉₉−1.194%ES₉₅−1.160%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 17h duration
PEAK17.66$
−2.49% drawdown over 17h
17.22$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmild tail heaviness|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.12× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONuniform tailratio = 1.15× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +2.55% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
37.7 · neutral
Bollinger %B
-0.166 · below lower band
Bollinger upper
$0.1767
Bollinger MA
$0.1748
Bollinger lower
$0.1729

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.33 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.330within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.125lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.898strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-3.563significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.898
H = 0.898STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.330k=2+0.125k=3-0.231k=4+0.035k=5-0.1450+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=3.56)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.33 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=3.56)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$99.45k
Open interest (USD)
$159.31k
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.62x
1h funding
0.001250%
Funding (annualised)
+10.95%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
-10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
-5.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
-2.500×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 0.89% · worst -1.22% · typical |Δ| 0.42%MILD BEARISH -1.85%BEST+0.89%21hWORST-1.22%14hTYPICAL |Δ|0.42%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-1.85%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 1down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.08% · Σ -0.60%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.08% · Σ -0.62%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.08% · Σ -0.63%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -1.85%+0.67%-1.85%0.40% · 15h0.40% · 15h0.40%15h-0.25% · 16h-0.25% · 16h-0.25%16h-0.57% · 17h-0.57% · 17h-0.57%17h-0.33% · 18h-0.33% · 18h-0.33%18h0.61% · 19h0.61% · 19h0.61%19h-0.08% · 20h-0.08% · 20h-0.08%20h0.89% · 21h0.89% · 21h0.89%21h★ BEST-0.55% · 22h-0.55% · 22h-0.55%22h-0.35% · 23h-0.35% · 23h-0.35%23h0.14% · 00h0.14% · 00h0.14%00h0.17% · 01h0.17% · 01h0.17%01h-0.24% · 02h-0.24% · 02h-0.24%02h0.40% · 03h0.40% · 03h0.40%03h-1.10% · 04h-1.10% · 04h-1.10%04h0.13% · 05h0.13% · 05h0.13%05h-0.07% · 06h-0.07% · 06h-0.07%06h-0.04% · 07h-0.04% · 07h-0.04%07h0.37% · 08h0.37% · 08h0.37%08h0.57% · 09h0.57% · 09h0.57%09h-0.68% · 10h-0.68% · 10h-0.68%10h0.16% · 11h0.16% · 11h0.16%11h-0.50% · 12h-0.50% · 12h-0.50%12h0.29% · 13h0.29% · 13h0.29%13h-1.22% · 14h-1.22% · 14h-1.22%14h▼ WORSTTIME PATTERNuniform across sessionsRUNSup max 2 · down max 3BREADTH46% up · 54% down
11 up bars · 13 down · best 0.89% · worst -1.22% · typical |Δ| 0.422%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS WITH MODERATE DD (-1.86%)FINAL-1.86%MAX DD-2.51%RECOVERYONGOING · 17 barsMAX RUN-UP+0.66%UNDERWATER22/25 (88%)STREAK↘ 1EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9814 · peak 1.0066 · range [0.9814, 1.0066]1.00660.9814break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0066UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -2.51% · moderate0%-2.51%▼ TROUGH -2.51%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 2 total#1 -2.51%bar 9-25 · 17 bars · ONGOING#2 -1.15%bar 3-7 · 5 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -2.51%)RECOVERYongoing · 17 barsTIME UNDER WATER88% of session · 22/25 bars
final equity 0.9814 (-1.86%) · max DD -2.51% · time-under-water 22/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +8 / −11 (42% positive) · μ=-5.14 · σ=14.82MIXED EDGELAST -31.80 (-1.80σ vs μ)31.8015.900.00-15.90-31.80μ = -5.14-7.65-7.657.367.36-0.72-0.725.195.1918.7718.777.067.062.072.07-17.95-17.95-28.10-28.10-14.26-14.26-20.81-20.81-27.91-27.91-8.59-8.59-3.83-3.839.969.9611.1511.15-4.03-4.036.376.37-31.80-31.80v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -31.801 · range [-31.80, 18.77] · μ -5.142 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=49.0744 · σ=6.7971 · range [34.1445, 63.7939] · R²=0.001▲ RISING +50.11%σ HIGH 13.85%LAST 63.793963.793956.381648.969241.556934.1445μ = 49.0744max 63.7939min 34.1445dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.00μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 63.79% · range [34.14%, 63.79%] · μ 49.07% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +3 / −16 (16% positive) · μ=-0.315 · σ=0.201MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.561 (-1.23σ vs μ)0.6160.3080.000-0.308-0.616μ = -0.315-0.040-0.0400.0140.014-0.324-0.324-0.383-0.383-0.305-0.305-0.318-0.318-0.271-0.2710.0070.007-0.386-0.386-0.528-0.528-0.601-0.601-0.616-0.616-0.436-0.4360.0360.036-0.252-0.252-0.329-0.329-0.308-0.308-0.388-0.388-0.561-0.561v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.561 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
2 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence2 reject·4 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
0.6420
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7254
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
5.7068
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3356
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.9846
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3026
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

REJECT H₀*

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
2.1374
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0326
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-random sign pattern (18 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.5645
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0271
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.4018
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1610
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.573 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=3.56e-5 · top T=2.00h (50.2%) · top-3 cover 72.9%STRONG CYCLE @ T≈2.0cumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)2.1e-41.6e-41.1e-45.4e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 3.96e-6 · 0.9% energyperiod 24.0 · power 3.96e-6 · 0.9% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.70e-5 · 6.3% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.70e-5 · 6.3% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.93e-6 · 0.5% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.93e-6 · 0.5% energyperiod 6.0 · power 3.33e-5 · 7.8% energyperiod 6.0 · power 3.33e-5 · 7.8% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.13e-5 · 2.6% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.13e-5 · 2.6% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.21e-5 · 2.8% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.21e-5 · 2.8% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.53e-5 · 3.6% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.53e-5 · 3.6% energyperiod 3.0 · power 4.21e-5 · 9.8% energyperiod 3.0 · power 4.21e-5 · 9.8% energyperiod 2.7 · power 5.49e-5 · 12.9% energyperiod 2.7 · power 5.49e-5 · 12.9% energyperiod 2.4 · power 6.00e-6 · 1.4% energyperiod 2.4 · power 6.00e-6 · 1.4% energyperiod 2.2 · power 4.82e-6 · 1.1% energyperiod 2.2 · power 4.82e-6 · 1.1% energyperiod 2.0 · power 2.15e-4 · 50.2% energyperiod 2.0 · power 2.15e-4 · 50.2% energy50% by T=2.0h#1 dominantT=2.00h#2T=2.67h#3T=3.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.00h (freq 0.500) · concentrates 50.2% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 4.273e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5257847 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.000% per barparametric μ/σ² short edge (μ<0) · μ -0.000% · σ 0.02%
μ per barmean
-0.000%
σ per barvol
0.02%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-49.09×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.00%0.02%0.05%0.07%0.10%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -26.43400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.012
annualized -26.43
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.00%
VaR 95%5%
0.00%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.01%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.0%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -1000% · APY -100% · Sharpe -25.36σ ann 52% · Sortino -15.51 · n 4999 · ⚠ capped (n=4999 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
-3043%-2422%-1801%-1180%-559%62%-1000.0%APR (simple)-100.0%APY (compound)51.7%Ann. vol σ-2535.9%Sharpe (ann)-1551.3%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.1650.1690.1720.1760.1800.183t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 14:49:07 UTC
Snapshot age
3.3s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 14:49:10 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
7f405b1a2c772002ee5afb1ac8245223049177c414f1d8478ba1a47a5546da16 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$1.19K
bid $939 · ask $252
Depth within 50bp
$35.18K
bid $16.94K · ask $18.24K
Mid price
0.172290
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
17.4bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.117
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.573
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-sushi/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.17246910.36bp0.1724804FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.17261118.61bp0.17277012FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.17287433.92bp0.17352020PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.1721309.27bp0.1720703FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.17196918.61bp0.17181010FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.17140851.22bp0.16991020PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.250e-5
0.00125% / hr
Annualised APR
10.958%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
33.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
33.3d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-10.958%33.3d333.3d
SHORTRECEIVE10.958%33.3d333.3d

/api/asset/hl-sushi/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$576.00K

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-sushi/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ BID-LEAN · +0.245 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
11 / 13
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$351.63K
real volume
Sell weight
$213.14K
real volume
Net delta
$138.49K
buyers net
Imbalance
24.52%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
24.5%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-sushi/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 5 found · deepest 1.43% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-14 14:00:00Z0ms0.174730→0.1722401.425%1
#22026-06-13 17:00:00Z1.0h0.176150→0.1741301.147%2
#32026-06-14 04:00:00Z2.0h0.175890→0.1739701.092%3

/api/asset/hl-sushi/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
51.66%
σ per bar = 0.000225
Mean return (annualised)
-1310.04%
μ per bar = -0.000002
Sharpe (rf=0)
-25.36
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
2.29%
peak 0.18 → trough 0.17 over 2944 bars

/api/asset/hl-sushi/risk · same metrics, JSON