HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

TON

TON-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-ton · fresh · feed 3s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▲ 1.09%
realized vol (ann.)
92.87%
max drawdown
1.43%
sharpe
-0.49
ulcer index
0.60%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.49%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.04%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-76.58
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
1.30%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
1.00
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-35.27
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.00
upside/downside
roll spread
2.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
1.09%
flow lean
—
carry
shorts_pay
-51.56%
signalLONGconfidence 43%suggested side: BUY
  • 24h change +1.09%
  • funding: shorts pay — perp longs get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 15.1bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-ton/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH2.9s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$1.724
24h Δ · live
1.09%
24h vol · live
$11.8M
TON · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=1.7224 · σ=0.0156 · range [1.6992, 1.7522] · R²=0.013▲ RISING +1.11%σ LOW 0.91%LAST 1.72511.75221.73891.72571.71251.6992μ = 1.7224max 1.7522min 1.6992dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.01μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $1.73
Funding direction · live
Long fee 49.6%Short fee 50.4%SHORT FEE50.4%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.01% (99.99pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 1.000 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
49.6%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
50.4%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding -0.005886% · shorts pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=6,866,749 · μ=274670.0 · σ=252205.6 · CV=0.92BURSTYcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=120221,095442,189663,284884,378μ = 274670884,37850%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 884378 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
2.9s
$mark $
$1.7244
$mid $
$1.7239
◉prev-day close
$1.7058
Δ24h Δ %
+1.090%
$24h vol $
$11.83M
◐open interest $
$40.05M
%funding (1h)
-0.005886%
%funding (yr)
-51.56%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=1.7224 · σ=0.0156 · range [1.6992, 1.7522] · R²=0.013▲ RISING +1.11%σ LOW 0.91%LAST 1.72511.75221.73891.72571.71251.6992μ = 1.7224max 1.7522min 1.6992dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.01μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $1.7244 · 24h 1.09% · range $[1.6992, 1.7522]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 14 · down 11 (56% up) · range [1.6890, 1.7644] · σ=0.0156 · CV=0.01 · bodyµ=41%BULLISH +1.13%CLOSE 1.7251 vs OPEN 1.7058 (+1.13%)&#9650; CLOSE 1.72511.76441.74551.72671.70791.6890μ close = 1.7224O1.706 H1.717 L1.701 C1.706 (+0.02%)O1.706 H1.717 L1.701 C1.706 (+0.02%)O1.706 H1.706 L1.690 C1.699 (-0.41%)O1.706 H1.706 L1.690 C1.699 (-0.41%)O1.700 H1.716 L1.695 C1.708 (+0.50%)O1.700 H1.716 L1.695 C1.708 (+0.50%)O1.708 H1.719 L1.704 C1.713 (+0.28%)O1.708 H1.719 L1.704 C1.713 (+0.28%)2.3%O1.713 H1.753 L1.711 C1.752 (+2.29%)O1.713 H1.753 L1.711 C1.752 (+2.29%)O1.752 H1.753 L1.729 C1.732 (-1.20%)O1.752 H1.753 L1.729 C1.732 (-1.20%)O1.732 H1.746 L1.715 C1.745 (+0.72%)O1.732 H1.746 L1.715 C1.745 (+0.72%)O1.744 H1.758 L1.739 C1.744 (-0.01%)O1.744 H1.758 L1.739 C1.744 (-0.01%)O1.744 H1.764 L1.732 C1.747 (+0.14%)O1.744 H1.764 L1.732 C1.747 (+0.14%)O1.747 H1.747 L1.736 C1.738 (-0.53%)O1.747 H1.747 L1.736 C1.738 (-0.53%)O1.738 H1.758 L1.738 C1.740 (+0.13%)O1.738 H1.758 L1.738 C1.740 (+0.13%)O1.740 H1.742 L1.717 C1.720 (-1.16%)O1.740 H1.742 L1.717 C1.720 (-1.16%)O1.720 H1.726 L1.713 C1.724 (+0.28%)O1.720 H1.726 L1.713 C1.724 (+0.28%)O1.724 H1.735 L1.717 C1.717 (-0.41%)O1.724 H1.735 L1.717 C1.717 (-0.41%)O1.718 H1.727 L1.696 C1.716 (-0.12%)O1.718 H1.727 L1.696 C1.716 (-0.12%)O1.715 H1.717 L1.704 C1.708 (-0.38%)O1.715 H1.717 L1.704 C1.708 (-0.38%)O1.708 H1.712 L1.702 C1.709 (+0.05%)O1.708 H1.712 L1.702 C1.709 (+0.05%)O1.709 H1.710 L1.695 C1.700 (-0.52%)O1.709 H1.710 L1.695 C1.700 (-0.52%)O1.696 H1.702 L1.689 C1.702 (+0.34%)O1.696 H1.702 L1.689 C1.702 (+0.34%)O1.702 H1.723 L1.698 C1.710 (+0.46%)O1.702 H1.723 L1.698 C1.710 (+0.46%)O1.710 H1.735 L1.710 C1.732 (+1.28%)O1.710 H1.735 L1.710 C1.732 (+1.28%)O1.730 H1.732 L1.715 C1.720 (-0.59%)O1.730 H1.732 L1.715 C1.720 (-0.59%)O1.719 H1.728 L1.707 C1.724 (+0.33%)O1.719 H1.728 L1.707 C1.724 (+0.33%)O1.724 H1.746 L1.724 C1.729 (+0.31%)O1.724 H1.746 L1.724 C1.729 (+0.31%)O1.727 H1.728 L1.722 C1.725 (-0.11%)O1.727 H1.728 L1.722 C1.725 (-0.11%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=6,866,749 · μ=274670.0 · σ=252205.6 · CV=0.92BURSTYcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=120221,095442,189663,284884,378μ = 27467086,652.8 · 9.8% peak86,652.8 · 9.8% peak453,088.2 · 51.2% peak453,088.2 · 51.2% peak106,945.3 · 12.1% peak106,945.3 · 12.1% peak115,649.6 · 13.1% peak115,649.6 · 13.1% peak884,378884,378 · 100.0% peak884,378 · 100.0% peak549,650 · 62.2% peak549,650 · 62.2% peak698,436.8 · 79.0% peak698,436.8 · 79.0% peak94,844.8 · 10.7% peak94,844.8 · 10.7% peak297,678.7 · 33.7% peak297,678.7 · 33.7% peak47,091.4 · 5.3% peak47,091.4 · 5.3% peak41,120.5 · 4.6% peak41,120.5 · 4.6% peak295,354.2 · 33.4% peak295,354.2 · 33.4% peak119,281.1 · 13.5% peak119,281.1 · 13.5% peak542,766.7 · 61.4% peak542,766.7 · 61.4% peak791,028.5 · 89.4% peak791,028.5 · 89.4% peak71,233.2 · 8.1% peak71,233.2 · 8.1% peak69,222.4 · 7.8% peak69,222.4 · 7.8% peak209,005 · 23.6% peak209,005 · 23.6% peak157,658.2 · 17.8% peak157,658.2 · 17.8% peak436,528.2 · 49.4% peak436,528.2 · 49.4% peak346,022.2 · 39.1% peak346,022.2 · 39.1% peak85,139.7 · 9.6% peak85,139.7 · 9.6% peak75,724.4 · 8.6% peak75,724.4 · 8.6% peak279,032.7 · 31.6% peak279,032.7 · 31.6% peak13,216.3 · 1.5% peak13,216.3 · 1.5% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 6866749 · peak 884378 · CV 0.92

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=0.0005 · σ=0.0069 · skew=0.94 (right-skewed) · kurt=1.51 (leptokurtic (fat tails))65320 2-104.44bpbin -104.44bp · n=2 · 33.3% peakbin -104.44bp · n=2 · 33.3% peak 1-75.63bpbin -75.63bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin -75.63bp · n=1 · 16.7% peak 5-46.82bpbin -46.82bp · n=5 · 83.3% peakbin -46.82bp · n=5 · 83.3% peak 3-18.02bpbin -18.02bp · n=3 · 50.0% peakbin -18.02bp · n=3 · 50.0% peak 410.79bpbin 10.79bp · n=4 · 66.7% peakbin 10.79bp · n=4 · 66.7% peak 639.60bpbin 39.60bp · n=6 · 100.0% peakbin 39.60bp · n=6 · 100.0% peak 168.40bpbin 68.40bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin 68.40bp · n=1 · 16.7% peak97.21bp 1126.02bpbin 126.02bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin 126.02bp · n=1 · 16.7% peak154.83bp183.63bp 1212.44bpbin 212.44bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin 212.44bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 13 · negative 11
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=0.96 · kurt=1.93 · near 19 / mid 4 / far 1 · OLS slope=0.98 intercept=-0.00MODERATE DEPARTURE · SOME OUTLIERSUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$1.7244
Mid price
$1.7239
24h change
+1.09%
Mark–mid spread
3.19 bps
Prev-day close
$1.7058

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25PLATYKURTIC · THIN TAILS (G₂=-1.17)
μ MEAN1.7224$95% CI: [1.7163$, 1.7285$]
σ STD DEV0.0156$σ² = 2.437×10⁻⁴ · CV = 0.91%
med MEDIAN1.7197$Q₁ 1.7092$ · Q₃ 1.7315$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0530$ · IQR 0.0223$ (1.349σ→0.0211$)
min 1.6992$Q₁ 1.7092$med 1.7197$Q₃ 1.7315$max 1.7522$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.273approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-1.168platykurtic · thin tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.17
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 0.94
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.40
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDEXCEPTIONAL EDGE · SR=5.83
μᵣ MEAN / h+0.045901%drift is positive per h · |μ|/σ = 0.062
σᵣ STD / h0.736856%σ²ᵣ = 0.543×10⁻⁴ · CV = 16.05×
σ ANNUALISED68.97%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.737%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)5.83excellent · top-decile
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)6.81strong downside-adjusted
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)100.00exceptional DD control
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁1.02right-skewed · heavy positive tail
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂2.70leptokurtic · fat tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside drag · negatively skewedSoR / SR = 1.17
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown control exceptionalCR = 100.00
EXPECTED EDGE+402.10%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKHIGH · 95% VaR 1.09%
VaR₉₅ (h)1.090%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)1.182%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)1.175%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN2.99%13h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−1.090%VaR₉₉−1.182%ES₉₅−1.175%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 13h duration
PEAK175.22$
−2.99% drawdown over 13h
169.98$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSthin tails · ES ≈ VaR|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.08× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONuniform tailratio = 1.08× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +3.08% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
55.6 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.518 · within band
Bollinger upper
$1.7524
Bollinger MA
$1.7241
Bollinger lower
$1.6957

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.35 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.349within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.315lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT1.130strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-0.542fails 5% test
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 1.130
H = 1.130STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.349k=2+0.315k=3-0.213k=4+0.253k=5-0.2900+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]NOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=0.54)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.35 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCENOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=0.54)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$11.83M
Open interest (USD)
$40.05M
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.30x
1h funding
-0.005886%
Funding (annualised)
-51.56%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
8.454× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
4.227× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
2.113×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 2.27% · worst -1.19% · typical |Δ| 0.52%MILD BULLISH +1.10%BEST+2.27%15hWORST-1.19%16hTYPICAL |Δ|0.52%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+1.10%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 1down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +0.05% · Σ +0.41%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.29% · Σ +2.29%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.20% · Σ -1.59%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +1.10%+2.66%-0.41%-0.41% · 12h-0.41% · 12h-0.41%12h0.53% · 13h0.53% · 13h0.53%13h0.27% · 14h0.27% · 14h0.27%14h2.27% · 15h2.27% · 15h2.27%15h★ BEST-1.19% · 16h-1.19% · 16h-1.19%16h▼ WORST0.77% · 17h0.77% · 17h0.77%17h-0.04% · 18h-0.04% · 18h-0.04%18h0.17% · 19h0.17% · 19h0.17%19h-0.53% · 20h-0.53% · 20h-0.53%20h0.12% · 21h0.12% · 21h0.12%21h-1.16% · 22h-1.16% · 22h-1.16%22h0.28% · 23h0.28% · 23h0.28%23h-0.41% · 00h-0.41% · 00h-0.41%00h-0.11% · 01h-0.11% · 01h-0.11%01h-0.41% · 02h-0.41% · 02h-0.41%02h0.05% · 03h0.05% · 03h0.05%03h-0.55% · 04h-0.55% · 04h-0.55%04h0.15% · 05h0.15% · 05h0.15%05h0.44% · 06h0.44% · 06h0.44%06h1.26% · 07h1.26% · 07h1.26%07h-0.68% · 08h-0.68% · 08h-0.68%08h0.27% · 09h0.27% · 09h0.27%09h0.25% · 10h0.25% · 10h0.25%10h-0.21% · 11h-0.21% · 11h-0.21%11hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+2.29%)RUNSup max 3 · down max 3BREADTH54% up · 46% down
13 up bars · 11 down · best 2.27% · worst -1.19% · typical |Δ| 0.522%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsPROFITABLE +1.04%FINAL+1.04%MAX DD-3.01%RECOVERYONGOING · 20 barsMAX RUN-UP+2.67%UNDERWATER21/25 (84%)STREAK↘ 1EQUITY CURVE · end 1.0104 · peak 1.0267 · range [0.9957, 1.0267]1.02670.9957break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0267UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -3.01% · moderate0%-3.01%▼ TROUGH -3.01%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 2 total#1 -3.01%bar 6-25 · 20 bars · ONGOING#2 -0.41%bar 2-2 · 1 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -3.01%)RECOVERYongoing · 20 barsTIME UNDER WATER84% of session · 21/25 bars
final equity 1.0104 (1.04%) · max DD -3.01% · time-under-water 21/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +9 / −10 (47% positive) · μ=-9.06 · σ=38.54MIXED EDGELAST 31.71 (+1.06σ vs μ)71.2335.610.00-35.61-71.23μ = -9.0629.8529.8536.0536.0530.8730.8718.8918.89-16.57-16.57-16.16-16.16-33.10-33.10-43.63-43.63-54.61-54.61-51.99-51.99-55.14-55.14-56.70-56.70-71.23-71.23-18.86-18.8622.1422.1414.5214.5219.4519.4542.4142.4131.7131.71v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 31.711 · range [-71.23, 42.41] · μ -9.059 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=63.5824 · σ=26.2631 · range [26.5581, 111.5661] · R²=0.361▼ FALLING -44.03%σ EXTREME 41.31%LAST 61.2561111.566190.314169.062147.810126.5581μ = 63.5824max 111.5661min 26.5581dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.36μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 61.26% · range [26.56%, 111.57%] · μ 63.58% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +1 / −18 (5% positive) · μ=-0.463 · σ=0.258MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.361 (+0.39σ vs μ)0.7680.3840.000-0.384-0.768μ = -0.463-0.572-0.572-0.626-0.626-0.600-0.600-0.523-0.523-0.477-0.477-0.168-0.168-0.608-0.608-0.737-0.737-0.768-0.768-0.734-0.734-0.515-0.515-0.544-0.544-0.755-0.755-0.116-0.1160.2130.213-0.201-0.201-0.279-0.279-0.415-0.415-0.361-0.361v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.361 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
2 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence2 reject·4 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀**

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
11.4894
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0032
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
12.2346
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0315
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zoneserial dependence detected
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-2.2225
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2031
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
1.7169
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0860
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (17 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.1483
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4471
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-0.6361
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5247
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.806 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=6.93e-5 · top T=2.00h (49.7%) · top-3 cover 67.3%STRONG CYCLE @ T≈2.0cumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)4.1e-43.1e-42.1e-41.0e-40.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 5.69e-5 · 6.9% energyperiod 24.0 · power 5.69e-5 · 6.9% energyperiod 12.0 · power 3.22e-5 · 3.9% energyperiod 12.0 · power 3.22e-5 · 3.9% energyperiod 8.0 · power 3.95e-5 · 4.8% energyperiod 8.0 · power 3.95e-5 · 4.8% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.50e-5 · 1.8% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.50e-5 · 1.8% energyperiod 4.8 · power 2.37e-5 · 2.9% energyperiod 4.8 · power 2.37e-5 · 2.9% energyperiod 4.0 · power 5.87e-5 · 7.1% energyperiod 4.0 · power 5.87e-5 · 7.1% energyperiod 3.4 · power 2.07e-5 · 2.5% energyperiod 3.4 · power 2.07e-5 · 2.5% energyperiod 3.0 · power 3.48e-5 · 4.2% energyperiod 3.0 · power 3.48e-5 · 4.2% energyperiod 2.7 · power 8.74e-5 · 10.5% energyperiod 2.7 · power 8.74e-5 · 10.5% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.87e-5 · 2.2% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.87e-5 · 2.2% energyperiod 2.2 · power 3.02e-5 · 3.6% energyperiod 2.2 · power 3.02e-5 · 3.6% energyperiod 2.0 · power 4.13e-4 · 49.7% energyperiod 2.0 · power 4.13e-4 · 49.7% energy50% by T=2.2h#1 dominantT=2.00h#2T=2.67h#3T=4.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.00h (freq 0.500) · concentrates 49.7% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 8.310e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5258724 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
f★ empirical 8.00× · g(f★) 0.001%/barparametric μ/σ² 20.87× · μ 0.000% · σ 0.03%
μ per barmean
0.000%
σ per barvol
0.03%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
8.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
20.87×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
4.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
2.00×
industry default — survives model error
0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 3.00× leverage
Median CAGR/bar 0.001% · annualized Sharpe 7.30400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 3.00× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
0.003
annualized 7.30
μ per barafter L
0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.10%
VaR 95%5%
0.12%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.24%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.3%
0.91×0.95×0.98×1.02×1.06×1.10×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR 1000% · APY 1000% · Sharpe 15.22σ ann 73% · Sortino 10.82 · n 4999 · ⚠ capped (n=4999 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
0%365%731%1096%1461%1827%1000.0%APR (simple)1000.0%APY (compound)72.9%Ann. vol σ1522.1%Sharpe (ann)1081.9%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.003% · long-run σ = 2.236%
1.6231.6611.7001.7391.7771.816t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 11:00:50 UTC
Snapshot age
2.9s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 11:00:54 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
be89cb63d1488f2340ec025a820fdb662dbd173edc43e250d0e0181507b39fd2 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany94.4¢HL PREDSpain90.3¢HL PREDUruguay66.6¢POLYMARKETWill Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?22¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$64,466HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,672.2HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$60.98

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$1.38K
bid $1.20K · ask $183
Depth within 5bp
$6.77K
bid $4.32K · ask $2.45K
Depth within 10bp
$26.39K
bid $18.63K · ask $7.75K
Depth within 50bp
$92.99K
bid $62.72K · ask $30.27K
Mid price
1.724200
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
1.2bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.350
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.277
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-ton/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K1.72462.47bp1.72483FILLED
BUY$10.00K1.72568.25bp1.726413FILLED
BUY$100.00K1.726513.52bp1.727620PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K1.72410.58bp1.72411FILLED
SELL$10.00K1.72325.70bp1.722510FILLED
SELL$100.00K1.722112.24bp1.721320PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ SHORTS PAY · longs receive
Hourly funding
-5.886e-5
-0.00589% / hr
Annualised APR
-51.593%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
7.1d
longs receive
Short: days to 1% carry
7.1d
shorts pay
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGRECEIVE51.593%7.1d70.8d
SHORTPAY-51.593%7.1d70.8d

/api/asset/hl-ton/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$1.0000–$2.0000★25$6.87M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-ton/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ BID-LEAN · +0.070 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
13 / 11
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$3.63M
real volume
Sell weight
$3.15M
real volume
Net delta
$475.26K
buyers net
Imbalance
7.01%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
7.0%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-ton/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 5 found · deepest 2.21% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-13 22:00:00Z4.0h1.7470→1.70842.210%5
#22026-06-13 16:00:00Z0ms1.7522→1.73151.181%1
#32026-06-14 04:00:00Z0ms1.7155→1.69980.915%1

/api/asset/hl-ton/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
72.93%
σ per bar = 0.000318
Mean return (annualised)
1110.01%
μ per bar = 0.000002
Sharpe (rf=0)
15.22
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
1.59%
peak 1.73 → trough 1.71 over 1099 bars

/api/asset/hl-ton/risk · same metrics, JSON