HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

XAI

XAI-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-xai · fresh · feed 2s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -2.48%
realized vol (ann.)
103.65%
max drawdown
2.61%
sharpe
-54.34
ulcer index
1.04%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.84%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.07%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-5440.80
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
2.28%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.88
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-2471.60
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.88
upside/downside
roll spread
3.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-2.48%
flow lean
—
carry
shorts_pay
-32.84%
signalNEUTRALconfidence 37%
  • 24h change -2.48%
  • funding: shorts pay — perp longs get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 25.4bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-xai/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH2.3s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.008
24h Δ · live
-2.48%
24h vol · live
$0.1M
XAI · live 24h price
n=24 · μ=0.0081 · σ=0.0001 · range [0.0079, 0.0082] · R²=0.196▼ FALLING -0.87%σ LOW 0.65%LAST 0.00800.00820.00810.00810.00800.0079μ = 0.0081max 0.0082min 0.0079dataMA(4)OLS R²=0.20μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
24 closes · last $0.01
Funding direction · live
Long fee 49.3%Short fee 50.7%SHORT FEE50.7%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.01% (99.99pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 1.000 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
49.3%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
50.7%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding -0.003748% · shorts pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=24 · Σ=12,774,431 · μ=532268.0 · σ=800526.8 · CV=1.50BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=80685,4191,370,8392,056,2582,741,677μ = 5322682,741,677.350%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 2741677 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
2.3s
$mark $
$0.0079
$mid $
$0.0079
◉prev-day close
$0.0081
Δ24h Δ %
-2.484%
$24h vol $
$102.38k
◐open interest $
$412.13k
%funding (1h)
-0.003748%
%funding (yr)
-32.84%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=24 · μ=0.0081 · σ=0.0001 · range [0.0079, 0.0082] · R²=0.196▼ FALLING -0.87%σ LOW 0.65%LAST 0.00800.00820.00810.00810.00800.0079μ = 0.0081max 0.0082min 0.0079dataMA(4)OLS R²=0.20μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.0078 · 24h -2.48% · range $[0.0079, 0.0082]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=24 · up 11 · down 13 (46% up) · range [0.0079, 0.0083] · σ=0.0001 · CV=0.01 · bodyµ=46%BEARISH -1.24%CLOSE 0.0080 vs OPEN 0.0081 (-1.24%)&#9660; CLOSE 0.00800.00830.00820.00810.00800.0079μ close = 0.0081O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.37%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.37%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+0.37%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+0.37%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+0.25%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+0.25%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.37%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.37%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.25%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.25%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+0.50%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+0.50%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.49%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.49%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+0.25%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+0.25%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.12%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.12%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.25%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.25%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.25%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.25%)1.6%O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+1.61%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+1.61%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.37%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.37%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+0.12%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+0.12%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-1.23%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-1.23%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+0.62%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+0.62%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.49%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.49%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-1.23%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-1.23%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+0.62%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+0.62%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+0.25%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+0.25%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.37%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.37%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+0.00%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+0.00%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-1.37%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-1.37%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+0.63%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+0.63%)#1#5#9#13#17#21up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(4) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
24 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=24 · Σ=12,774,431 · μ=532268.0 · σ=800526.8 · CV=1.50BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=80685,4191,370,8392,056,2582,741,677μ = 532268145,708.8 · 5.3% peak145,708.8 · 5.3% peak150,814.7 · 5.5% peak150,814.7 · 5.5% peak2,662,005.9 · 97.1% peak2,662,005.9 · 97.1% peak252,725.2 · 9.2% peak252,725.2 · 9.2% peak162,575.9 · 5.9% peak162,575.9 · 5.9% peak114,370.9 · 4.2% peak114,370.9 · 4.2% peak164,610.3 · 6.0% peak164,610.3 · 6.0% peak2,741,677.32,741,677.3 · 100.0% peak2,741,677.3 · 100.0% peak205,632.3 · 7.5% peak205,632.3 · 7.5% peak193,125.2 · 7.0% peak193,125.2 · 7.0% peak244,645.3 · 8.9% peak244,645.3 · 8.9% peak2,316,759.6 · 84.5% peak2,316,759.6 · 84.5% peak602,573.6 · 22.0% peak602,573.6 · 22.0% peak111,889.6 · 4.1% peak111,889.6 · 4.1% peak373,757.5 · 13.6% peak373,757.5 · 13.6% peak351,910.1 · 12.8% peak351,910.1 · 12.8% peak555,642.5 · 20.3% peak555,642.5 · 20.3% peak182,010.5 · 6.6% peak182,010.5 · 6.6% peak159,925.4 · 5.8% peak159,925.4 · 5.8% peak260,218.2 · 9.5% peak260,218.2 · 9.5% peak120,492 · 4.4% peak120,492 · 4.4% peak232,688 · 8.5% peak232,688 · 8.5% peak205,309.7 · 7.5% peak205,309.7 · 7.5% peak263,362.8 · 9.6% peak263,362.8 · 9.6% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 12774431 · peak 2741677 · CV 1.50

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=23 · 12 bins · μ=-0.0004 · σ=0.0065 · skew=0.12 (symmetric) · kurt=-0.34 (mesokurtic)54310 3-113.43bpbin -113.43bp · n=3 · 60.0% peakbin -113.43bp · n=3 · 60.0% peak-89.65bp 1-65.87bpbin -65.87bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin -65.87bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 5-42.10bpbin -42.10bp · n=5 · 100.0% peakbin -42.10bp · n=5 · 100.0% peak 3-18.32bpbin -18.32bp · n=3 · 60.0% peakbin -18.32bp · n=3 · 60.0% peak 15.46bpbin 5.46bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 5.46bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 429.23bpbin 29.23bp · n=4 · 80.0% peakbin 29.23bp · n=4 · 80.0% peak 353.01bpbin 53.01bp · n=3 · 60.0% peakbin 53.01bp · n=3 · 60.0% peak 276.79bpbin 76.79bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin 76.79bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak100.56bp124.34bp 1148.12bpbin 148.12bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 148.12bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=23 · positive 10 · negative 12
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=23 · skew=0.12 · kurt=-0.17 · near 20 / mid 3 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.01 intercept=-0.00MATCHES NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVEDUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.0079
Mid price
$0.0079
24h change
-2.48%
Mark–mid spread
0.00 bps
Prev-day close
$0.0081

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=24APPROXIMATELY NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVED
μ MEAN0.0081$95% CI: [0.0081$, 0.0081$]
σ STD DEV0.0001$σ² = 0.000×10⁻⁴ · CV = 0.65%
med MEDIAN0.0081$Q₁ 0.0081$ · Q₃ 0.0081$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0003$ · IQR 0.0000$ (1.349σ→0.0001$)
min 0.0079$Q₁ 0.0081$med 0.0081$Q₃ 0.0081$max 0.0082$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.420approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂0.870mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ median≈ equal · symmetric|μ−med| / σ = 0.05
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 1.78
range ↔ σwide tails (range > 4σ)range / σ = 4.93
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDUNPROFITABLE · SR=-5.07
μᵣ MEAN / h-0.037925%drift is negative per h · |μ|/σ = 0.054
σᵣ STD / h0.699587%σ²ᵣ = 0.489×10⁻⁴ · CV = 18.45×
σ ANNUALISED65.48%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.700%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)-5.07negative edge
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)-5.12downside drag
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)-100.00drawdown overwhelms returns
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁0.13approximately symmetric
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂0.10mesokurtic · normal-like tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 1.01
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown > returns · adverseCR = -100.00
EXPECTED EDGE-332.22%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKHIGH · 95% VaR 1.23%
VaR₉₅ (h)1.226%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)1.250%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)1.245%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN3.17%11h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−1.226%VaR₉₉−1.250%ES₉₅−1.245%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 11h duration
PEAK0.82$
−3.17% drawdown over 11h
0.79$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSthin tails · ES ≈ VaR|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.02× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONuniform tailratio = 1.02× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +3.28% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
45.4 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.149 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.0082
Bollinger MA
$0.0081
Bollinger lower
$0.0080

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.29 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.293within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.150lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.852strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-2.313significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.852
H = 0.852STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.293k=2-0.150k=3-0.115k=4+0.058k=5+0.1700+1−1+0.42−0.42+ momentum (ρ > +0.42)− reversal (ρ < −0.42)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 5% (|t|=2.31)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.29 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 5% (|t|=2.31)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$102.38k
Open interest (USD)
$412.13k
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.25x
1h funding
-0.003748%
Funding (annualised)
-32.84%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
-7.749× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
-3.874× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
-1.937×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=23 bars · best 1.60% · worst -1.25% · typical |Δ| 0.57%MILD BEARISH -0.87%BEST+1.60%01hWORST-1.25%12hTYPICAL |Δ|0.57%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-0.87%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↗ 1up-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.08% · Σ -0.62%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.02% · Σ +0.12%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.05% · Σ -0.37%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -0.87%+1.60%-1.63%0.37% · 15h0.37% · 15h0.37%15h0.49% · 16h0.49% · 16h0.49%16h-0.49% · 17h-0.49% · 17h-0.49%17h-0.37% · 18h-0.37% · 18h-0.37%18h0.37% · 19h0.37% · 19h0.37%19h-0.37% · 20h-0.37% · 20h-0.37%20h0.50% · 21h0.50% · 21h0.50%21h-0.25% · 22h-0.25% · 22h-0.25%22h-0.25% · 23h-0.25% · 23h-0.25%23h0.00% · 00h0.00% · 00h·00h1.60% · 01h1.60% · 01h1.60%01h★ BEST-0.61% · 02h-0.61% · 02h-0.61%02h-0.12% · 03h-0.12% · 03h-0.12%03h-1.24% · 04h-1.24% · 04h-1.24%04h0.62% · 05h0.62% · 05h0.62%05h0.25% · 06h0.25% · 06h0.25%06h-1.12% · 07h-1.12% · 07h-1.12%07h0.75% · 08h0.75% · 08h0.75%08h0.37% · 09h0.37% · 09h0.37%09h-0.50% · 10h-0.50% · 10h-0.50%10h-0.37% · 11h-0.37% · 11h-0.37%11h-1.25% · 12h-1.25% · 12h-1.25%12h▼ WORST0.75% · 13h0.75% · 13h0.75%13hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+0.12%)RUNSup max 2 · down max 3BREADTH43% up · 52% down · 4% flat
10 up bars · 12 down · best 1.60% · worst -1.25% · typical |Δ| 0.566%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=24 barsLOSS WITH MODERATE DD (-0.92%)FINAL-0.92%MAX DD-3.21%RECOVERYONGOING · 12 barsMAX RUN-UP+1.59%UNDERWATER20/24 (83%)STREAK↗ 1EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9908 · peak 1.0159 · range [0.9834, 1.0159]1.01590.9834break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0159UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -3.21% · moderate0%-3.21%▼ TROUGH -3.21%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 2 total#1 -3.21%bar 13-24 · 12 bars · ONGOING#2 -0.87%bar 4-11 · 8 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -3.21%)RECOVERYongoing · 12 barsTIME UNDER WATER83% of session · 20/24 bars
final equity 0.9908 (-0.92%) · max DD -3.21% · time-under-water 20/24 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 5 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +7 / −12 (37% positive) · μ=-5.99 · σ=19.35MIXED EDGELAST -23.77 (-0.92σ vs μ)38.5419.270.00-19.27-38.54μ = -5.9914.8914.89-14.89-14.89-14.80-14.80-5.47-5.470.000.00-20.12-20.1238.5438.5410.6310.6313.4813.48-6.61-6.614.214.21-28.38-28.38-36.52-36.52-14.47-14.4721.7221.72-6.20-6.20-22.03-22.03-24.02-24.02-23.77-23.77v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -23.772 · range [-36.52, 38.54] · μ -5.990 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=66.7134 · σ=20.9262 · range [32.3557, 103.1138] · R²=0.356▲ RISING +67.93%σ EXTREME 31.37%LAST 73.4266103.113885.424267.734750.045232.3557μ = 66.7134max 103.1138min 32.3557dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.36μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 73.43% · range [32.36%, 103.11%] · μ 66.71% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +2 / −17 (11% positive) · μ=-0.321 · σ=0.233MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.381 (-0.26σ vs μ)0.7960.3980.000-0.398-0.796μ = -0.3210.0080.008-0.433-0.433-0.354-0.354-0.796-0.796-0.595-0.595-0.524-0.524-0.002-0.002-0.353-0.353-0.355-0.355-0.156-0.156-0.294-0.294-0.282-0.282-0.353-0.353-0.486-0.486-0.307-0.307-0.456-0.456-0.220-0.2200.2470.247-0.381-0.381v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.381 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
ALL TESTS PASS · data behaves as nominal0 reject·6 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
0.0748
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.9633
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
4.2643
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5137
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-2.6503
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0861
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
0.4808
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6306
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (13 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.3723
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0891
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=2

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.4430
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1490
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.699 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=11 bins · noise floor μ=4.89e-5 · top T=4.60h (20.9%) · top-3 cover 51.9%1 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEcumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)1.1e-48.4e-55.6e-52.8e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 23.0 · power 6.48e-6 · 1.2% energyperiod 23.0 · power 6.48e-6 · 1.2% energyperiod 11.5 · power 1.08e-6 · 0.2% energyperiod 11.5 · power 1.08e-6 · 0.2% energyperiod 7.7 · power 4.72e-5 · 8.8% energyperiod 7.7 · power 4.72e-5 · 8.8% energyperiod 5.8 · power 3.88e-5 · 7.2% energyperiod 5.8 · power 3.88e-5 · 7.2% energyperiod 4.6 · power 1.12e-4 · 20.9% energyperiod 4.6 · power 1.12e-4 · 20.9% energyperiod 3.8 · power 6.54e-5 · 12.1% energyperiod 3.8 · power 6.54e-5 · 12.1% energyperiod 3.3 · power 1.97e-5 · 3.7% energyperiod 3.3 · power 1.97e-5 · 3.7% energyperiod 2.9 · power 2.08e-5 · 3.9% energyperiod 2.9 · power 2.08e-5 · 3.9% energyperiod 2.6 · power 9.69e-5 · 18.0% energyperiod 2.6 · power 9.69e-5 · 18.0% energyperiod 2.3 · power 7.01e-5 · 13.0% energyperiod 2.3 · power 7.01e-5 · 13.0% energyperiod 2.1 · power 5.95e-5 · 11.1% energyperiod 2.1 · power 5.95e-5 · 11.1% energy50% by T=3.8h#1 dominantT=4.60h#2T=2.56h#3T=2.30hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 4.60h (freq 0.217) · concentrates 20.9% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 5.384e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5257847 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.001% per barparametric μ/σ² short edge (μ<0) · μ -0.001% · σ 0.04%
μ per barmean
-0.001%
σ per barvol
0.04%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-35.18×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.01%0.02%0.05%0.07%0.10%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -36.22400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.016
annualized -36.22
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.00%
VaR 95%5%
0.01%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.01%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.1%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -1000% · APY -100% · Sharpe -35.38σ ann 101% · Sortino -12.27 · n 4999 · ⚠ capped (n=4999 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
-4245%-3372%-2499%-1626%-752%121%-1000.0%APR (simple)-100.0%APY (compound)100.5%Ann. vol σ-3537.6%Sharpe (ann)-1227.1%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.002% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.0080.0080.0080.0080.0080.009t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 14:50:37 UTC
Snapshot age
2.3s
History points
24 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 14:50:40 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
7b6619df376de32348d4c110aca15be1f7854acadf253aaaca7b1ec9912d3e34 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$10.04K
bid $3.48K · ask $6.56K
Mid price
0.007850
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
25.5bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.355
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.643
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-xai/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.00786518.67bp0.0078702FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.00787835.95bp0.0079005FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.007993182.66bp0.00885020PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.00784012.74bp0.0078401FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.00778779.88bp0.0076709FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.007425541.98bp0.00679020PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ SHORTS PAY · longs receive
Hourly funding
-3.748e-5
-0.00375% / hr
Annualised APR
-32.859%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
11.1d
longs receive
Short: days to 1% carry
11.1d
shorts pay
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGRECEIVE32.859%11.1d111.2d
SHORTPAY-32.859%11.1d111.2d

/api/asset/hl-xai/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 24 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★24$12.77M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-xai/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ BID-LEAN · +0.517 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
10 / 13
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$9.58M
real volume
Sell weight
$3.05M
real volume
Net delta
$6.52M
buyers net
Imbalance
51.67%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
51.7%
one-sided / toxic
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 24-record window./api/asset/hl-xai/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 4 found · deepest 2.10% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-14 11:00:00Z2.0h0.008100→0.0079302.099%3
#22026-06-14 02:00:00Z3.0h0.008190→0.0080301.954%4
#32026-06-14 07:00:00Z0ms0.008100→0.0080101.111%1

/api/asset/hl-xai/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
100.54%
σ per bar = 0.000438
Mean return (annualised)
-3556.76%
μ per bar = -0.000007
Sharpe (rf=0)
-35.38
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
4.16%
peak 0.01 → trough 0.01 over 4898 bars

/api/asset/hl-xai/risk · same metrics, JSON