HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

XLM

XLM-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-xlm · fresh · feed 1s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -3.73%
realized vol (ann.)
47.65%
max drawdown
1.98%
sharpe
-68.08
ulcer index
0.91%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.74%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.03%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-3545.57
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
1.82%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.90
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-1787.26
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.90
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-3.73%
flow lean
—
carry
shorts_pay
-46.97%
signalNEUTRALconfidence 34%
  • 24h change -3.73%
  • funding: shorts pay — perp longs get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 13.6bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-xlm/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH982ms⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.184
24h Δ · live
-3.73%
24h vol · live
$1.3M
XLM · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.1871 · σ=0.0019 · range [0.1834, 0.1913] · R²=0.720▼ FALLING -4.10%σ NORMAL 1.04%LAST 0.18340.19130.18930.18740.18540.1834μ = 0.1871max 0.1913min 0.1834dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.72μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.18
Funding direction · live
Long fee 49.5%Short fee 50.5%SHORT FEE50.5%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.01% (99.99pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 1.000 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
49.5%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
50.5%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding -0.005362% · shorts pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=6,900,814 · μ=276032.6 · σ=175562.7 · CV=0.64STEADY FLOWcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=110148,687297,374446,061594,748μ = 276033594,74850%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 594748 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
982ms
$mark $
$0.1836
$mid $
$0.1836
◉prev-day close
$0.1907
Δ24h Δ %
-3.728%
$24h vol $
$1.29M
◐open interest $
$9.41M
%funding (1h)
-0.005362%
%funding (yr)
-46.97%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.1871 · σ=0.0019 · range [0.1834, 0.1913] · R²=0.720▼ FALLING -4.10%σ NORMAL 1.04%LAST 0.18340.19130.18930.18740.18540.1834μ = 0.1871max 0.1913min 0.1834dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.72μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.1836 · 24h -3.73% · range $[0.1834, 0.1913]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 11 · down 14 (44% up) · range [0.1834, 0.1920] · σ=0.0019 · CV=0.01 · bodyµ=48%BEARISH -3.82%CLOSE 0.1834 vs OPEN 0.1907 (-3.82%)&#9660; CLOSE 0.18340.19200.18990.18770.18550.1834μ close = 0.1871O0.191 H0.192 L0.191 C0.191 (+0.29%)O0.191 H0.192 L0.191 C0.191 (+0.29%)O0.191 H0.191 L0.190 C0.190 (-0.57%)O0.191 H0.191 L0.190 C0.190 (-0.57%)O0.190 H0.190 L0.188 C0.189 (-0.82%)O0.190 H0.190 L0.188 C0.189 (-0.82%)O0.188 H0.189 L0.188 C0.189 (+0.38%)O0.188 H0.189 L0.188 C0.189 (+0.38%)O0.189 H0.191 L0.189 C0.191 (+1.00%)O0.189 H0.191 L0.189 C0.191 (+1.00%)-1.4%O0.191 H0.191 L0.188 C0.189 (-1.45%)O0.191 H0.191 L0.188 C0.189 (-1.45%)O0.189 H0.189 L0.186 C0.186 (-1.21%)O0.189 H0.189 L0.186 C0.186 (-1.21%)O0.186 H0.187 L0.186 C0.187 (+0.19%)O0.186 H0.187 L0.186 C0.187 (+0.19%)O0.187 H0.187 L0.186 C0.187 (-0.12%)O0.187 H0.187 L0.186 C0.187 (-0.12%)O0.187 H0.187 L0.186 C0.187 (+0.13%)O0.187 H0.187 L0.186 C0.187 (+0.13%)O0.187 H0.189 L0.186 C0.188 (+0.65%)O0.187 H0.189 L0.186 C0.188 (+0.65%)O0.188 H0.188 L0.187 C0.187 (-0.73%)O0.188 H0.188 L0.187 C0.187 (-0.73%)O0.187 H0.187 L0.186 C0.187 (+0.04%)O0.187 H0.187 L0.186 C0.187 (+0.04%)O0.187 H0.187 L0.186 C0.187 (-0.06%)O0.187 H0.187 L0.186 C0.187 (-0.06%)O0.187 H0.189 L0.186 C0.188 (+0.65%)O0.187 H0.189 L0.186 C0.188 (+0.65%)O0.188 H0.189 L0.186 C0.186 (-0.66%)O0.188 H0.189 L0.186 C0.186 (-0.66%)O0.186 H0.187 L0.185 C0.186 (-0.42%)O0.186 H0.187 L0.185 C0.186 (-0.42%)O0.186 H0.186 L0.185 C0.185 (-0.08%)O0.186 H0.186 L0.185 C0.185 (-0.08%)O0.185 H0.186 L0.185 C0.186 (+0.26%)O0.185 H0.186 L0.185 C0.186 (+0.26%)O0.186 H0.187 L0.186 C0.186 (+0.31%)O0.186 H0.187 L0.186 C0.186 (+0.31%)O0.186 H0.187 L0.186 C0.186 (+0.03%)O0.186 H0.187 L0.186 C0.186 (+0.03%)O0.187 H0.187 L0.186 C0.186 (-0.10%)O0.187 H0.187 L0.186 C0.186 (-0.10%)O0.186 H0.187 L0.185 C0.185 (-0.49%)O0.186 H0.187 L0.185 C0.185 (-0.49%)O0.185 H0.185 L0.183 C0.184 (-0.87%)O0.185 H0.185 L0.183 C0.184 (-0.87%)O0.183 H0.183 L0.183 C0.183 (-0.03%)O0.183 H0.183 L0.183 C0.183 (-0.03%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=6,900,814 · μ=276032.6 · σ=175562.7 · CV=0.64STEADY FLOWcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=110148,687297,374446,061594,748μ = 27603389,754 · 15.1% peak89,754 · 15.1% peak382,583 · 64.3% peak382,583 · 64.3% peak125,122 · 21.0% peak125,122 · 21.0% peak121,023 · 20.3% peak121,023 · 20.3% peak387,226 · 65.1% peak387,226 · 65.1% peak577,228 · 97.1% peak577,228 · 97.1% peak406,806 · 68.4% peak406,806 · 68.4% peak136,191 · 22.9% peak136,191 · 22.9% peak522,403 · 87.8% peak522,403 · 87.8% peak594,748594,748 · 100.0% peak594,748 · 100.0% peak304,217 · 51.2% peak304,217 · 51.2% peak217,141 · 36.5% peak217,141 · 36.5% peak209,384 · 35.2% peak209,384 · 35.2% peak528,912 · 88.9% peak528,912 · 88.9% peak114,402 · 19.2% peak114,402 · 19.2% peak113,193 · 19.0% peak113,193 · 19.0% peak172,338 · 29.0% peak172,338 · 29.0% peak87,189 · 14.7% peak87,189 · 14.7% peak96,130 · 16.2% peak96,130 · 16.2% peak171,052 · 28.8% peak171,052 · 28.8% peak379,278 · 63.8% peak379,278 · 63.8% peak426,681 · 71.7% peak426,681 · 71.7% peak312,984 · 52.6% peak312,984 · 52.6% peak420,925 · 70.8% peak420,925 · 70.8% peak3,904 · 0.7% peak3,904 · 0.7% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 6900814 · peak 594748 · CV 0.64

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=-0.0018 · σ=0.0056 · skew=-0.24 (symmetric) · kurt=-0.74 (mesokurtic)54310 2-120.17bpbin -120.17bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin -120.17bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak 1-101.26bpbin -101.26bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin -101.26bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 2-82.34bpbin -82.34bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin -82.34bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak 2-63.43bpbin -63.43bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin -63.43bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak 2-44.52bpbin -44.52bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin -44.52bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak-25.61bp 5-6.69bpbin -6.69bp · n=5 · 100.0% peakbin -6.69bp · n=5 · 100.0% peak 512.22bpbin 12.22bp · n=5 · 100.0% peakbin 12.22bp · n=5 · 100.0% peak 231.13bpbin 31.13bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin 31.13bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak 150.04bpbin 50.04bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 50.04bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 168.96bpbin 68.96bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 68.96bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 187.87bpbin 87.87bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 87.87bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 12 · negative 12
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-0.23 · kurt=-0.63 · near 22 / mid 2 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.01 intercept=-0.00MATCHES NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVEDUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.1836
Mid price
$0.1836
24h change
-3.73%
Mark–mid spread
0.27 bps
Prev-day close
$0.1907

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25APPROXIMATELY NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVED
μ MEAN0.1871$95% CI: [0.1863$, 0.1878$]
σ STD DEV0.0019$σ² = 0.038×10⁻⁴ · CV = 1.04%
med MEDIAN0.1867$Q₁ 0.1863$ · Q₃ 0.1880$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0078$ · IQR 0.0017$ (1.349σ→0.0026$)
min 0.1834$Q₁ 0.1863$med 0.1867$Q₃ 0.1880$max 0.1913$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.438approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.122mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.18
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 1.53
range ↔ σwide tails (range > 4σ)range / σ = 4.03
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDUNPROFITABLE · SR=-27.94
μᵣ MEAN / h-0.174387%drift is negative per h · |μ|/σ = 0.298
σᵣ STD / h0.584248%σ²ᵣ = 0.341×10⁻⁴ · CV = 3.35×
σ ANNUALISED54.68%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.584%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)-27.94negative edge
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)-21.85downside drag
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)-100.00drawdown overwhelms returns
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.25approximately symmetric
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.49mesokurtic · normal-like tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 0.78
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown > returns · adverseCR = -100.00
EXPECTED EDGE-1527.63%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKHIGH · 95% VaR 1.15%
VaR₉₅ (h)1.151%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)1.271%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)1.240%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN4.10%24h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−1.151%VaR₉₉−1.271%ES₉₅−1.240%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 24h duration
PEAK19.13$
−4.10% drawdown over 24h
18.34$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSthin tails · ES ≈ VaR|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.08× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONuniform tailratio = 1.10× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +4.27% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
28.0 · oversold
Bollinger %B
-0.075 · below lower band
Bollinger upper
$0.1888
Bollinger MA
$0.1863
Bollinger lower
$0.1838

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit root
ρ(1) AUTOCORR+0.020within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.447lag-2 dependence detected
H · HURST EXPONENT0.534random-walk
OLS TREND · t-STAT-7.682significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]random-walk · H = 0.534
H = 0.534RANDOM-WALK
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..51 SIGNIFICANT LAG · k=2
k=1+0.020k=2 ★-0.447k=3-0.140k=4+0.111k=5+0.0340+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=7.68)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit rootfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.09low · ~ unpredictable|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=7.68)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$1.29M
Open interest (USD)
$9.41M
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.14x
1h funding
-0.005362%
Funding (annualised)
-46.97%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
-10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
-5.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
-2.500×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 0.97% · worst -1.30% · typical |Δ| 0.45%MILD BEARISH -4.19%BEST+0.97%15hWORST-1.30%16hTYPICAL |Δ|0.45%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-4.19%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 4down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.02% · Σ -0.17%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.22% · Σ -1.75%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.28% · Σ -2.26%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -4.19%+0.00%-4.19%-0.57% · 12h-0.57% · 12h-0.57%12h-0.87% · 13h-0.87% · 13h-0.87%13h0.33% · 14h0.33% · 14h0.33%14h0.97% · 15h0.97% · 15h0.97%15h★ BEST-1.30% · 16h-1.30% · 16h-1.30%16h▼ WORST-1.18% · 17h-1.18% · 17h-1.18%17h0.17% · 18h0.17% · 18h0.17%18h0.05% · 19h0.05% · 19h0.05%19h0.13% · 20h0.13% · 20h0.13%20h0.55% · 21h0.55% · 21h0.55%21h-0.69% · 22h-0.69% · 22h-0.69%22h0.02% · 23h0.02% · 23h0.02%23h0.01% · 00h0.01% · 00h0.01%00h0.62% · 01h0.62% · 01h0.62%01h-0.82% · 02h-0.82% · 02h-0.82%02h-0.40% · 03h-0.40% · 03h-0.40%03h-0.07% · 04h-0.07% · 04h-0.07%04h0.20% · 05h0.20% · 05h0.20%05h0.23% · 06h0.23% · 06h0.23%06h0.06% · 07h0.06% · 07h0.06%07h-0.04% · 08h-0.04% · 08h-0.04%08h-0.53% · 09h-0.53% · 09h-0.53%09h-0.96% · 10h-0.96% · 10h-0.96%10h-0.08% · 11h-0.08% · 11h-0.08%11hTIME PATTERNAsia-led (+-0.17%)RUNSup max 4 · down max 4BREADTH50% up · 50% down
12 up bars · 12 down · best 0.97% · worst -1.30% · typical |Δ| 0.452%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS WITH MODERATE DD (-4.14%)FINAL-4.14%MAX DD-4.14%RECOVERYONGOING · 24 barsMAX RUN-UP+0.00%UNDERWATER24/25 (96%)STREAK↘ 4EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9586 · peak 1.0000 · range [0.9586, 1.0000]1.00000.9586break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0000UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -4.14% · moderate0%-4.14%▼ TROUGH -4.14%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 1 total#1 -4.14%bar 2-25 · 24 bars · ONGOINGDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -4.14%)RECOVERYongoing · 24 barsTIME UNDER WATER96% of session · 24/25 bars
final equity 0.9586 (-4.14%) · max DD -4.14% · time-under-water 24/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +3 / −16 (16% positive) · μ=-18.31 · σ=18.16UNPROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST -46.46 (-1.55σ vs μ)46.4623.230.00-23.23-46.46μ = -18.31-45.22-45.22-31.40-31.40-16.70-16.70-20.59-20.59-31.80-31.80-23.75-23.758.458.452.092.0920.6020.60-8.31-8.31-37.22-37.22-21.16-21.16-14.73-14.73-7.37-7.37-30.53-30.53-1.45-1.45-8.25-8.25-34.17-34.17-46.46-46.46v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -46.462 · range [-46.46, 20.60] · μ -18.315 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=53.0066 · σ=20.0812 · range [21.6082, 87.1244] · R²=0.679▼ FALLING -50.85%σ EXTREME 37.88%LAST 41.524687.124470.745354.366337.987321.6082μ = 53.0066max 87.1244min 21.6082dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.68μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 41.52% · range [21.61%, 87.12%] · μ 53.01% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +8 / −11 (42% positive) · μ=-0.025 · σ=0.291CLOSE TO MARTINGALELAST 0.254 (+0.96σ vs μ)0.4960.2480.000-0.248-0.496μ = -0.0250.0580.058-0.083-0.0830.0400.040-0.101-0.1010.3740.374-0.183-0.183-0.376-0.376-0.394-0.394-0.283-0.283-0.496-0.496-0.187-0.187-0.193-0.193-0.178-0.178-0.124-0.1240.4610.4610.2780.2780.2040.2040.4540.4540.2540.254v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 0.254 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
0.4865
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7841
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
6.6809
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2445
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.7678
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4058
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
-1.6697
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0950
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (9 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀**

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.8090
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0068
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-0.9759
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3291
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.703 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=3.43e-5 · top T=3.43h (25.3%) · top-3 cover 55.6%2 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)1.0e-47.8e-55.2e-52.6e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 2.02e-5 · 4.9% energyperiod 24.0 · power 2.02e-5 · 4.9% energyperiod 12.0 · power 3.98e-6 · 1.0% energyperiod 12.0 · power 3.98e-6 · 1.0% energyperiod 8.0 · power 4.41e-5 · 10.7% energyperiod 8.0 · power 4.41e-5 · 10.7% energyperiod 6.0 · power 3.97e-5 · 9.6% energyperiod 6.0 · power 3.97e-5 · 9.6% energyperiod 4.8 · power 8.05e-5 · 19.6% energyperiod 4.8 · power 8.05e-5 · 19.6% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.39e-5 · 3.4% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.39e-5 · 3.4% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.04e-4 · 25.3% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.04e-4 · 25.3% energyperiod 3.0 · power 4.03e-5 · 9.8% energyperiod 3.0 · power 4.03e-5 · 9.8% energyperiod 2.7 · power 6.15e-6 · 1.5% energyperiod 2.7 · power 6.15e-6 · 1.5% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.49e-5 · 3.6% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.49e-5 · 3.6% energyperiod 2.2 · power 5.88e-6 · 1.4% energyperiod 2.2 · power 5.88e-6 · 1.4% energyperiod 2.0 · power 3.75e-5 · 9.1% energyperiod 2.0 · power 3.75e-5 · 9.1% energy50% by T=3.4h#1 dominantT=3.43h#2T=4.80h#3T=8.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 3.43h (freq 0.292) · concentrates 25.3% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 4.113e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5258724 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.000% per barparametric μ/σ² short edge (μ<0) · μ -0.000% · σ 0.02%
μ per barmean
-0.000%
σ per barvol
0.02%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-97.69×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.00%0.02%0.05%0.07%0.10%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -52.65400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.023
annualized -52.65
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.00%
VaR 95%5%
0.00%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.01%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.0%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -1000% · APY -100% · Sharpe -47.98σ ann 49% · Sortino -38.39 · n 4999 · ⚠ capped (n=4999 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
-5758%-4595%-3431%-2268%-1104%59%-1000.0%APR (simple)-100.0%APY (compound)49.1%Ann. vol σ-4798.5%Sharpe (ann)-3839.4%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.1760.1800.1840.1870.1910.195t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 11:01:27 UTC
Snapshot age
982ms
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 11:01:28 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
5371b8cc71d62f352816e15ab14a2e0380191a7e3b368e59fb5756ed0729f6bb · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$6.00K
bid $1.29K · ask $4.70K
Depth within 10bp
$47.11K
bid $8.03K · ask $39.08K
Depth within 50bp
$117.87K
bid $48.44K · ask $69.42K
Mid price
0.183625
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
3.8bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.177
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.341
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-xlm/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.1836702.44bp0.1836903FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.1837164.93bp0.1837605FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.18381010.08bp0.18394020PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.1835613.49bp0.1835402FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.1834976.97bp0.1834307FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.18336414.23bp0.18326020PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ SHORTS PAY · longs receive
Hourly funding
-5.362e-5
-0.00536% / hr
Annualised APR
-47.000%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
7.8d
longs receive
Short: days to 1% carry
7.8d
shorts pay
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGRECEIVE47.000%7.8d77.7d
SHORTPAY-47.000%7.8d77.7d

/api/asset/hl-xlm/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$6.90M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-xlm/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ BID-LEAN · +0.047 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
12 / 12
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$3.56M
real volume
Sell weight
$3.25M
real volume
Net delta
$318.87K
buyers net
Imbalance
4.68%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
4.7%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-xlm/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 5 found · deepest 2.45% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-13 16:00:00Z3.0h0.191010→0.1863302.450%4
#22026-06-14 09:00:00Z2.0h0.186420→0.1834301.604%3
#32026-06-13 12:00:00Z2.0h0.191270→0.1885401.427%3

/api/asset/hl-xlm/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
49.12%
σ per bar = 0.000214
Mean return (annualised)
-2356.91%
μ per bar = -0.000004
Sharpe (rf=0)
-47.98
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
2.37%
peak 0.19 → trough 0.18 over 4988 bars

/api/asset/hl-xlm/risk · same metrics, JSON