HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

XRP

XRP-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-xrp · fresh · feed 2s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -0.10%
realized vol (ann.)
27.72%
max drawdown
0.59%
sharpe
-4.98
ulcer index
0.23%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.17%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.01%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-612.26
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
0.52%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.99
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-266.65
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.99
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-0.10%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
2.82%
signalNEUTRALconfidence 35%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 6.1bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-xrp/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH1.9s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$1.143
24h Δ · live
-0.10%
24h vol · live
$11.1M
XRP · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=1.1485 · σ=0.0036 · range [1.1427, 1.1561] · R²=0.216▼ FALLING -0.45%σ LOW 0.31%LAST 1.14271.15611.15271.14941.14611.1427μ = 1.1485max 1.1561min 1.1427dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.22μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $1.14
Funding direction · live
Long fee 43.3%Short fee 56.7%SHORT FEE56.7%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.987 / 1.00 bits (99%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
43.3%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
56.7%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.000322% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=9,675,727 · μ=387029.1 · σ=336800.8 · CV=0.87BURSTYcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=80317,818635,636953,4531,271,271μ = 3870291,271,27150%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 1271271 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
1.9s
$mark $
$1.1428
$mid $
$1.1429
◉prev-day close
$1.1439
Δ24h Δ %
-0.096%
$24h vol $
$11.13M
◐open interest $
$94.72M
%funding (1h)
0.000322%
%funding (yr)
+2.82%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=1.1485 · σ=0.0036 · range [1.1427, 1.1561] · R²=0.216▼ FALLING -0.45%σ LOW 0.31%LAST 1.14271.15611.15271.14941.14611.1427μ = 1.1485max 1.1561min 1.1427dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.22μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $1.1428 · 24h -0.10% · range $[1.1427, 1.1561]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 13 · down 12 (52% up) · range [1.1407, 1.1603] · σ=0.0036 · CV=0.00 · bodyµ=42%CONSOLIDATINGCLOSE 1.1427 vs OPEN 1.1439 (-0.10%)&#9660; CLOSE 1.14271.16031.15541.15051.14561.1407μ close = 1.1485O1.144 H1.149 L1.144 C1.148 (+0.35%)O1.144 H1.149 L1.144 C1.148 (+0.35%)O1.148 H1.155 L1.147 C1.153 (+0.44%)O1.148 H1.155 L1.147 C1.153 (+0.44%)O1.153 H1.154 L1.150 C1.151 (-0.22%)O1.153 H1.154 L1.150 C1.151 (-0.22%)O1.151 H1.157 L1.151 C1.154 (+0.30%)O1.151 H1.157 L1.151 C1.154 (+0.30%)O1.155 H1.160 L1.152 C1.156 (+0.13%)O1.155 H1.160 L1.152 C1.156 (+0.13%)-0.9%O1.156 H1.156 L1.143 C1.146 (-0.86%)O1.156 H1.156 L1.143 C1.146 (-0.86%)O1.147 H1.149 L1.142 C1.144 (-0.27%)O1.147 H1.149 L1.142 C1.144 (-0.27%)O1.143 H1.147 L1.143 C1.145 (+0.17%)O1.143 H1.147 L1.143 C1.145 (+0.17%)O1.145 H1.148 L1.144 C1.147 (+0.11%)O1.145 H1.148 L1.144 C1.147 (+0.11%)O1.147 H1.147 L1.144 C1.146 (-0.07%)O1.147 H1.147 L1.144 C1.146 (-0.07%)O1.146 H1.155 L1.145 C1.152 (+0.51%)O1.146 H1.155 L1.145 C1.152 (+0.51%)O1.152 H1.152 L1.149 C1.149 (-0.21%)O1.152 H1.152 L1.149 C1.149 (-0.21%)O1.149 H1.152 L1.148 C1.150 (+0.02%)O1.149 H1.152 L1.148 C1.150 (+0.02%)O1.150 H1.150 L1.148 C1.148 (-0.14%)O1.150 H1.150 L1.148 C1.148 (-0.14%)O1.149 H1.156 L1.148 C1.152 (+0.29%)O1.149 H1.156 L1.148 C1.152 (+0.29%)O1.151 H1.155 L1.150 C1.151 (-0.02%)O1.151 H1.155 L1.150 C1.151 (-0.02%)O1.151 H1.154 L1.151 C1.153 (+0.17%)O1.151 H1.154 L1.151 C1.153 (+0.17%)O1.153 H1.153 L1.146 C1.148 (-0.43%)O1.153 H1.153 L1.146 C1.148 (-0.43%)O1.148 H1.149 L1.144 C1.148 (+0.00%)O1.148 H1.149 L1.144 C1.148 (+0.00%)O1.148 H1.153 L1.145 C1.146 (-0.16%)O1.148 H1.153 L1.145 C1.146 (-0.16%)O1.146 H1.146 L1.142 C1.146 (-0.03%)O1.146 H1.146 L1.142 C1.146 (-0.03%)O1.146 H1.147 L1.144 C1.145 (-0.09%)O1.146 H1.147 L1.144 C1.145 (-0.09%)O1.145 H1.149 L1.141 C1.148 (+0.28%)O1.145 H1.149 L1.141 C1.148 (+0.28%)O1.148 H1.148 L1.143 C1.143 (-0.45%)O1.148 H1.148 L1.143 C1.143 (-0.45%)O1.143 H1.143 L1.142 C1.143 (+0.00%)O1.143 H1.143 L1.142 C1.143 (+0.00%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=9,675,727 · μ=387029.1 · σ=336800.8 · CV=0.87BURSTYcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=80317,818635,636953,4531,271,271μ = 387029279,263 · 22.0% peak279,263 · 22.0% peak510,607 · 40.2% peak510,607 · 40.2% peak1,235,961 · 97.2% peak1,235,961 · 97.2% peak496,042 · 39.0% peak496,042 · 39.0% peak691,350 · 54.4% peak691,350 · 54.4% peak1,271,2711,271,271 · 100.0% peak1,271,271 · 100.0% peak265,358 · 20.9% peak265,358 · 20.9% peak100,051 · 7.9% peak100,051 · 7.9% peak178,058 · 14.0% peak178,058 · 14.0% peak91,089 · 7.2% peak91,089 · 7.2% peak442,259 · 34.8% peak442,259 · 34.8% peak595,925 · 46.9% peak595,925 · 46.9% peak158,891 · 12.5% peak158,891 · 12.5% peak297,694 · 23.4% peak297,694 · 23.4% peak936,960 · 73.7% peak936,960 · 73.7% peak396,224 · 31.2% peak396,224 · 31.2% peak68,504 · 5.4% peak68,504 · 5.4% peak231,459 · 18.2% peak231,459 · 18.2% peak195,484 · 15.4% peak195,484 · 15.4% peak301,711 · 23.7% peak301,711 · 23.7% peak253,644 · 20.0% peak253,644 · 20.0% peak111,911 · 8.8% peak111,911 · 8.8% peak376,655 · 29.6% peak376,655 · 29.6% peak186,044 · 14.6% peak186,044 · 14.6% peak3,312 · 0.3% peak3,312 · 0.3% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 9675727 · peak 1271271 · CV 0.87

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=-0.0002 · σ=0.0029 · skew=-0.61 (left-skewed) · kurt=0.38 (mesokurtic)65320 1-80.32bpbin -80.32bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin -80.32bp · n=1 · 16.7% peak-68.94bp-57.57bp 2-46.20bpbin -46.20bp · n=2 · 33.3% peakbin -46.20bp · n=2 · 33.3% peak-34.82bp 3-23.45bpbin -23.45bp · n=3 · 50.0% peakbin -23.45bp · n=3 · 50.0% peak 3-12.08bpbin -12.08bp · n=3 · 50.0% peakbin -12.08bp · n=3 · 50.0% peak 6-0.71bpbin -0.71bp · n=6 · 100.0% peakbin -0.71bp · n=6 · 100.0% peak 210.67bpbin 10.67bp · n=2 · 33.3% peakbin 10.67bp · n=2 · 33.3% peak 322.04bpbin 22.04bp · n=3 · 50.0% peakbin 22.04bp · n=3 · 50.0% peak 233.41bpbin 33.41bp · n=2 · 33.3% peakbin 33.41bp · n=2 · 33.3% peak 244.78bpbin 44.78bp · n=2 · 33.3% peakbin 44.78bp · n=2 · 33.3% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 10 · negative 13
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-0.70 · kurt=0.91 · near 22 / mid 2 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.00 intercept=-0.00APPROXIMATELY NORMALUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$1.1428
Mid price
$1.1429
24h change
-0.10%
Mark–mid spread
0.44 bps
Prev-day close
$1.1439

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25APPROXIMATELY NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVED
μ MEAN1.1485$95% CI: [1.1471$, 1.1499$]
σ STD DEV0.0036$σ² = 0.130×10⁻⁴ · CV = 0.31%
med MEDIAN1.1480$Q₁ 1.1459$ · Q₃ 1.1512$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0134$ · IQR 0.0053$ (1.349σ→0.0049$)
min 1.1427$Q₁ 1.1459$med 1.1480$Q₃ 1.1512$max 1.1561$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.257approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.922mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.13
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 0.92
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.71
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDUNPROFITABLE · SR=-5.84
μᵣ MEAN / h-0.018918%drift is negative per h · |μ|/σ = 0.062
σᵣ STD / h0.303008%σ²ᵣ = 0.092×10⁻⁴ · CV = 16.02×
σ ANNUALISED28.36%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.303%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)-5.84negative edge
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)-5.53downside drag
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)-100.00drawdown overwhelms returns
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.74left-skewed · heavy negative tail
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂1.43leptokurtic · fat tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 0.95
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown > returns · adverseCR = -100.00
EXPECTED EDGE-165.72%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKMODERATE · 95% VaR 0.46%
VaR₉₅ (h)0.460%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)0.769%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)0.661%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN1.16%19h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−0.460%VaR₉₉−0.769%ES₉₅−0.661%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 19h duration
PEAK115.61$
−1.16% drawdown over 19h
114.27$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmild tail heaviness|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.44× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONextreme-tail dominated · severe outliersratio = 1.67× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +1.17% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
42.8 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.107 · within band
Bollinger upper
$1.1536
Bollinger MA
$1.1475
Bollinger lower
$1.1414

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.23 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.229within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.024lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.885strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-2.518significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.885
H = 0.885STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.229k=2-0.024k=3-0.095k=4-0.037k=5-0.3540+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 5% (|t|=2.52)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.23 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 5% (|t|=2.52)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$11.13M
Open interest (USD)
$94.72M
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.12x
1h funding
0.000322%
Funding (annualised)
+2.82%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
-10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
-5.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
-2.500×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 0.50% · worst -0.86% · typical |Δ| 0.22%MILD BEARISH -0.45%BEST+0.50%21hWORST-0.86%16hTYPICAL |Δ|0.22%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-0.45%Σ signed ΔSTREAK▬ 0flat-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.04% · Σ -0.35%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.06% · Σ +0.45%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.07% · Σ -0.56%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -0.45%+0.71%-0.45%0.44% · 12h0.44% · 12h0.44%12h-0.18% · 13h-0.18% · 13h-0.18%13h0.28% · 14h0.28% · 14h0.28%14h0.17% · 15h0.17% · 15h0.17%15h-0.86% · 16h-0.86% · 16h-0.86%16h▼ WORST-0.22% · 17h-0.22% · 17h-0.22%17h0.15% · 18h0.15% · 18h0.15%18h0.12% · 19h0.12% · 19h0.12%19h-0.04% · 20h-0.04% · 20h-0.04%20h0.50% · 21h0.50% · 21h0.50%21h★ BEST-0.23% · 22h-0.23% · 22h-0.23%22h0.02% · 23h0.02% · 23h0.02%23h-0.11% · 00h-0.11% · 00h-0.11%00h0.31% · 01h0.31% · 01h0.31%01h-0.07% · 02h-0.07% · 02h-0.07%02h0.16% · 03h0.16% · 03h0.16%03h-0.44% · 04h-0.44% · 04h-0.44%04h-0.03% · 05h-0.03% · 05h-0.03%05h-0.16% · 06h-0.16% · 06h-0.16%06h-0.02% · 07h-0.02% · 07h-0.02%07h-0.06% · 08h-0.06% · 08h-0.06%08h0.26% · 09h0.26% · 09h0.26%09h-0.46% · 10h-0.46% · 10h-0.46%10h0.00% · 11h0.00% · 11h·11hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+0.45%)RUNSup max 2 · down max 5BREADTH42% up · 54% down · 4% flat
10 up bars · 13 down · best 0.50% · worst -0.86% · typical |Δ| 0.221%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS · SHALLOW DD (-0.46%)FINAL-0.46%MAX DD-1.17%RECOVERYONGOING · 20 barsMAX RUN-UP+0.71%UNDERWATER21/25 (84%)STREAK▬ 0EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9954 · peak 1.0071 · range [0.9954, 1.0071]1.00710.9954break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0071UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -1.17% · moderate0%-1.17%▼ TROUGH -1.17%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 2 total#1 -1.17%bar 6-25 · 20 bars · ONGOING#2 -0.18%bar 3-3 · 1 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -1.17%)RECOVERYongoing · 20 barsTIME UNDER WATER84% of session · 21/25 bars
final equity 0.9954 (-0.46%) · max DD -1.17% · time-under-water 21/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +6 / −13 (32% positive) · μ=-9.03 · σ=23.19UNPROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST -28.81 (-0.85σ vs μ)42.3521.170.00-21.17-42.35μ = -9.03-12.18-12.18-24.64-24.64-13.05-13.05-26.79-26.79-11.74-11.7416.3016.3033.3633.3616.0216.0225.4525.4523.7823.786.896.89-7.85-7.85-10.49-10.49-12.96-12.96-42.35-42.35-41.66-41.66-30.23-30.23-30.71-30.71-28.81-28.81v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -28.806 · range [-42.35, 33.36] · μ -9.034 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=27.5035 · σ=8.4747 · range [18.3825, 43.9345] · R²=0.665▼ FALLING -49.63%σ EXTREME 30.81%LAST 22.129043.934537.546531.158524.770518.3825μ = 27.5035max 43.9345min 18.3825dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.67μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 22.13% · range [18.38%, 43.93%] · μ 27.50% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +2 / −17 (11% positive) · μ=-0.339 · σ=0.230MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.569 (-1.00σ vs μ)0.5850.2930.000-0.293-0.585μ = -0.339-0.077-0.077-0.088-0.0880.0260.026-0.109-0.1090.1350.135-0.510-0.510-0.554-0.554-0.494-0.494-0.512-0.512-0.464-0.464-0.398-0.398-0.409-0.409-0.394-0.394-0.307-0.307-0.572-0.572-0.585-0.585-0.081-0.081-0.482-0.482-0.569-0.569v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.569 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
ALL TESTS PASS · data behaves as nominal0 reject·6 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
4.2637
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1186
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
5.8680
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3189
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-2.2944
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1811
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
1.6061
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1083
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (16 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.3191
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1488
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.1199
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2628
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.659 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=1.00e-5 · top T=3.00h (26.3%) · top-3 cover 68.1%BROADBAND · 3 CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (3 bins above 2× noise)3.2e-52.4e-51.6e-57.9e-60.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 6.77e-7 · 0.6% energyperiod 24.0 · power 6.77e-7 · 0.6% energyperiod 12.0 · power 7.33e-6 · 6.1% energyperiod 12.0 · power 7.33e-6 · 6.1% energyperiod 8.0 · power 4.51e-6 · 3.7% energyperiod 8.0 · power 4.51e-6 · 3.7% energyperiod 6.0 · power 2.06e-5 · 17.1% energyperiod 6.0 · power 2.06e-5 · 17.1% energyperiod 4.8 · power 3.59e-7 · 0.3% energyperiod 4.8 · power 3.59e-7 · 0.3% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.60e-6 · 1.3% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.60e-6 · 1.3% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.18e-5 · 9.8% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.18e-5 · 9.8% energyperiod 3.0 · power 3.17e-5 · 26.3% energyperiod 3.0 · power 3.17e-5 · 26.3% energyperiod 2.7 · power 4.45e-6 · 3.7% energyperiod 2.7 · power 4.45e-6 · 3.7% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.61e-6 · 1.3% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.61e-6 · 1.3% energyperiod 2.2 · power 6.08e-6 · 5.0% energyperiod 2.2 · power 6.08e-6 · 5.0% energyperiod 2.0 · power 2.99e-5 · 24.8% energyperiod 2.0 · power 2.99e-5 · 24.8% energy50% by T=3.0h#1 dominantT=3.00h#2T=2.00h#3T=6.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 3.00h (freq 0.333) · concentrates 26.3% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 1.205e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5258724 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.000% per barparametric μ/σ² short edge (μ<0) · μ -0.000% · σ 0.01%
μ per barmean
-0.000%
σ per barvol
0.01%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-123.23×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.00%0.02%0.05%0.07%0.10%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -32.36400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.014
annualized -32.36
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.00%
VaR 95%5%
0.00%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.00%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.0%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -862% · APY -100% · Sharpe -32.59σ ann 26% · Sortino -20.17 · n 4999
-3910%-3122%-2334%-1545%-757%32%-861.7%APR (simple)-100.0%APY (compound)26.4%Ann. vol σ-3258.7%Sharpe (ann)-2017.4%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
1.0961.1171.1381.1591.1801.201t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 11:01:27 UTC
Snapshot age
1.9s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 11:01:29 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
7d6f09c648a3d76c68cef9b6854fd3778b30444c03190442fb9f0cda1cba7d09 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$17.29K
bid $11.24K · ask $6.05K
Depth within 5bp
$362.51K
bid $172.32K · ask $190.18K
Depth within 10bp
$953.34K
bid $462.73K · ask $490.61K
Depth within 50bp
$1.75M
bid $931.27K · ask $819.86K
Mid price
1.142850
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
0.9bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.065
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.010
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-xrp/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K1.14290.44bp1.14291FILLED
BUY$10.00K1.14301.03bp1.14313FILLED
BUY$100.00K1.14322.70bp1.14335FILLED
SELL$1.00K1.14280.44bp1.14281FILLED
SELL$10.00K1.14280.44bp1.14281FILLED
SELL$100.00K1.14252.65bp1.14254FILLED

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+3.221e-6
0.00032% / hr
Annualised APR
2.823%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
129.4d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
129.4d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-2.823%129.4d3.54y
SHORTRECEIVE2.823%129.4d3.54y

/api/asset/hl-xrp/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$1.0000–$2.0000★25$9.68M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-xrp/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ ASK-LEAN · -0.157 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
10 / 14
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$3.96M
real volume
Sell weight
$5.44M
real volume
Net delta
$1.48M
sellers net
Imbalance
-15.73%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
15.7%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-xrp/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 2 found · deepest 1.07% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-13 16:00:00Z2.0h1.1561→1.14371.073%3
#22026-06-14 06:00:00Z0ms1.1531→1.14590.624%1

/api/asset/hl-xrp/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
26.44%
σ per bar = 0.000115
Mean return (annualised)
-861.74%
μ per bar = -0.000002
Sharpe (rf=0)
-32.59
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
1.14%
peak 1.15 → trough 1.14 over 3213 bars

/api/asset/hl-xrp/risk · same metrics, JSON