HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

YGG

YGG-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-ygg · fresh · feed 4s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -2.94%
realized vol (ann.)
70.66%
max drawdown
3.20%
sharpe
-77.95
ulcer index
1.28%
RMS drawdown
pain index
1.03%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.05%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-4313.95
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
2.93%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.87
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-1877.46
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.87
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-2.94%
flow lean
—
carry
shorts_pay
-13.59%
signalNEUTRALconfidence 35%
  • 24h change -2.94%
  • funding: shorts pay — perp longs get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 19.2bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-ygg/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH3.5s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.024
24h Δ · live
-2.94%
24h vol · live
$0.1M
YGG · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.0252 · σ=0.0002 · range [0.0245, 0.0255] · R²=0.514▼ FALLING -2.89%σ LOW 0.78%LAST 0.02450.02550.02520.02500.02470.0245μ = 0.0252max 0.0255min 0.0245dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.51μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.02
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.4%Short fee 51.6%SHORT FEE51.6%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.4%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.6%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding -0.001551% · shorts pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=3,819,364 · μ=152774.6 · σ=119000.4 · CV=0.78FADING -41% h/hcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=110137,938275,876413,814551,752μ = 152775551,75250%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 551752 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
3.5s
$mark $
$0.0245
$mid $
$0.0245
◉prev-day close
$0.0252
Δ24h Δ %
-2.940%
$24h vol $
$92.93k
◐open interest $
$109.02k
%funding (1h)
-0.001551%
%funding (yr)
-13.59%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.0252 · σ=0.0002 · range [0.0245, 0.0255] · R²=0.514▼ FALLING -2.89%σ LOW 0.78%LAST 0.02450.02550.02520.02500.02470.0245μ = 0.0252max 0.0255min 0.0245dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.51μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.0245 · 24h -2.94% · range $[0.0245, 0.0255]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 10 · down 15 (40% up) · range [0.0245, 0.0255] · σ=0.0002 · CV=0.01 · bodyµ=46%BEARISH -2.37%CLOSE 0.0245 vs OPEN 0.0251 (-2.37%)&#9660; CLOSE 0.02450.02550.02520.02500.02470.0245μ close = 0.0252O0.025 H0.025 L0.025 C0.025 (+0.53%)O0.025 H0.025 L0.025 C0.025 (+0.53%)O0.025 H0.025 L0.025 C0.025 (+0.88%)O0.025 H0.025 L0.025 C0.025 (+0.88%)O0.025 H0.025 L0.025 C0.025 (-0.60%)O0.025 H0.025 L0.025 C0.025 (-0.60%)O0.025 H0.025 L0.025 C0.025 (+0.08%)O0.025 H0.025 L0.025 C0.025 (+0.08%)O0.025 H0.025 L0.025 C0.025 (-0.30%)O0.025 H0.025 L0.025 C0.025 (-0.30%)O0.025 H0.025 L0.025 C0.025 (+0.73%)O0.025 H0.025 L0.025 C0.025 (+0.73%)O0.025 H0.025 L0.025 C0.025 (-0.39%)O0.025 H0.025 L0.025 C0.025 (-0.39%)O0.025 H0.025 L0.025 C0.025 (+0.28%)O0.025 H0.025 L0.025 C0.025 (+0.28%)O0.025 H0.025 L0.025 C0.025 (-0.79%)O0.025 H0.025 L0.025 C0.025 (-0.79%)O0.025 H0.025 L0.025 C0.025 (-0.05%)O0.025 H0.025 L0.025 C0.025 (-0.05%)O0.025 H0.025 L0.025 C0.025 (+0.04%)O0.025 H0.025 L0.025 C0.025 (+0.04%)O0.025 H0.025 L0.025 C0.025 (+0.71%)O0.025 H0.025 L0.025 C0.025 (+0.71%)O0.025 H0.025 L0.025 C0.025 (-0.75%)O0.025 H0.025 L0.025 C0.025 (-0.75%)O0.025 H0.025 L0.025 C0.025 (+0.71%)O0.025 H0.025 L0.025 C0.025 (+0.71%)O0.025 H0.025 L0.025 C0.025 (-0.50%)O0.025 H0.025 L0.025 C0.025 (-0.50%)O0.025 H0.025 L0.025 C0.025 (-0.20%)O0.025 H0.025 L0.025 C0.025 (-0.20%)O0.025 H0.025 L0.025 C0.025 (-0.70%)O0.025 H0.025 L0.025 C0.025 (-0.70%)O0.025 H0.025 L0.025 C0.025 (-0.39%)O0.025 H0.025 L0.025 C0.025 (-0.39%)O0.025 H0.025 L0.025 C0.025 (+0.56%)O0.025 H0.025 L0.025 C0.025 (+0.56%)O0.025 H0.025 L0.025 C0.025 (+0.42%)O0.025 H0.025 L0.025 C0.025 (+0.42%)O0.025 H0.025 L0.025 C0.025 (-0.67%)O0.025 H0.025 L0.025 C0.025 (-0.67%)O0.025 H0.025 L0.025 C0.025 (-0.09%)O0.025 H0.025 L0.025 C0.025 (-0.09%)O0.025 H0.025 L0.025 C0.025 (-0.43%)O0.025 H0.025 L0.025 C0.025 (-0.43%)O0.025 H0.025 L0.025 C0.025 (-0.13%)O0.025 H0.025 L0.025 C0.025 (-0.13%)-1.8%O0.025 H0.025 L0.024 C0.025 (-1.79%)O0.025 H0.025 L0.024 C0.025 (-1.79%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=3,819,364 · μ=152774.6 · σ=119000.4 · CV=0.78FADING -41% h/hcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=110137,938275,876413,814551,752μ = 152775133,693 · 24.2% peak133,693 · 24.2% peak212,187 · 38.5% peak212,187 · 38.5% peak300,693 · 54.5% peak300,693 · 54.5% peak127,396 · 23.1% peak127,396 · 23.1% peak77,842 · 14.1% peak77,842 · 14.1% peak116,328 · 21.1% peak116,328 · 21.1% peak73,967 · 13.4% peak73,967 · 13.4% peak551,752551,752 · 100.0% peak551,752 · 100.0% peak89,191 · 16.2% peak89,191 · 16.2% peak89,570 · 16.2% peak89,570 · 16.2% peak421,790 · 76.4% peak421,790 · 76.4% peak204,228 · 37.0% peak204,228 · 37.0% peak62,717 · 11.4% peak62,717 · 11.4% peak219,003 · 39.7% peak219,003 · 39.7% peak134,907 · 24.5% peak134,907 · 24.5% peak70,805 · 12.8% peak70,805 · 12.8% peak106,385 · 19.3% peak106,385 · 19.3% peak198,852 · 36.0% peak198,852 · 36.0% peak62,291 · 11.3% peak62,291 · 11.3% peak106,267 · 19.3% peak106,267 · 19.3% peak68,946 · 12.5% peak68,946 · 12.5% peak115,534 · 20.9% peak115,534 · 20.9% peak65,543 · 11.9% peak65,543 · 11.9% peak145,103 · 26.3% peak145,103 · 26.3% peak64,374 · 11.7% peak64,374 · 11.7% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 3819364 · peak 551752 · CV 0.78

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=-0.0011 · σ=0.0060 · skew=-0.41 (symmetric) · kurt=0.04 (mesokurtic)43210 1-167.99bpbin -167.99bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin -167.99bp · n=1 · 25.0% peak-145.59bp-123.20bp-100.80bp 3-78.40bpbin -78.40bp · n=3 · 75.0% peakbin -78.40bp · n=3 · 75.0% peak 3-56.01bpbin -56.01bp · n=3 · 75.0% peakbin -56.01bp · n=3 · 75.0% peak 4-33.61bpbin -33.61bp · n=4 · 100.0% peakbin -33.61bp · n=4 · 100.0% peak 2-11.22bpbin -11.22bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakbin -11.22bp · n=2 · 50.0% peak 411.18bpbin 11.18bp · n=4 · 100.0% peakbin 11.18bp · n=4 · 100.0% peak 233.58bpbin 33.58bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakbin 33.58bp · n=2 · 50.0% peak 255.97bpbin 55.97bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakbin 55.97bp · n=2 · 50.0% peak 378.37bpbin 78.37bp · n=3 · 75.0% peakbin 78.37bp · n=3 · 75.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 11 · negative 13
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-0.42 · kurt=0.23 · near 21 / mid 3 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.01 intercept=-0.00MATCHES NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVEDUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.0245
Mid price
$0.0245
24h change
-2.94%
Mark–mid spread
0.00 bps
Prev-day close
$0.0252

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25LEPTOKURTIC · FAT TAILS (G₂=3.34)
μ MEAN0.0252$95% CI: [0.0251$, 0.0253$]
σ STD DEV0.0002$σ² = 0.000×10⁻⁴ · CV = 0.78%
med MEDIAN0.0252$Q₁ 0.0251$ · Q₃ 0.0253$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0010$ · IQR 0.0002$ (1.349σ→0.0003$)
min 0.0245$Q₁ 0.0251$med 0.0252$Q₃ 0.0253$max 0.0255$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-1.530left-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂3.338leptokurtic · fat tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ < med · left-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.11
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 1.39
range ↔ σwide tails (range > 4σ)range / σ = 4.87
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDUNPROFITABLE · SR=-17.96
μᵣ MEAN / h-0.122161%drift is negative per h · |μ|/σ = 0.192
σᵣ STD / h0.636470%σ²ᵣ = 0.405×10⁻⁴ · CV = 5.21×
σ ANNUALISED59.57%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.636%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)-17.96negative edge
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)-15.95downside drag
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)-100.00drawdown overwhelms returns
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.44approximately symmetric
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂0.59mesokurtic · normal-like tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 0.89
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown > returns · adverseCR = -100.00
EXPECTED EDGE-1070.13%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKELEVATED · 95% VaR 0.84%
VaR₉₅ (h)0.838%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)1.575%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)1.321%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN3.76%23h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−0.838%VaR₉₉−1.575%ES₉₅−1.321%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 23h duration
PEAK2.55$
−3.76% drawdown over 23h
2.45$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmoderate fat tail|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.58× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONextreme-tail dominated · severe outliersratio = 1.88× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +3.90% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
32.4 · neutral
Bollinger %B
-0.292 · below lower band
Bollinger upper
$0.0256
Bollinger MA
$0.0252
Bollinger lower
$0.0247

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.36 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.363within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.232lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.652persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-4.931significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]persistent · H = 0.652
H = 0.652PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.363k=2+0.232k=3-0.334k=4+0.404k=5-0.3030+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=4.93)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.36 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.67very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=4.93)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$92.93k
Open interest (USD)
$109.02k
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.85x
1h funding
-0.001551%
Funding (annualised)
-13.59%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
-10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
-5.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
-2.500×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 0.90% · worst -1.79% · typical |Δ| 0.51%MILD BEARISH -2.93%BEST+0.90%15hWORST-1.79%14hTYPICAL |Δ|0.51%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-2.93%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 3down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.06% · Σ -0.51%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.16% · Σ -1.29%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.14% · Σ -1.14%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -2.93%+0.90%-2.93%0.90% · 15h0.90% · 15h0.90%15h★ BEST-0.76% · 16h-0.76% · 16h-0.76%16h0.16% · 17h0.16% · 17h0.16%17h-0.43% · 18h-0.43% · 18h-0.43%18h0.85% · 19h0.85% · 19h0.85%19h-0.37% · 20h-0.37% · 20h-0.37%20h0.31% · 21h0.31% · 21h0.31%21h-0.77% · 22h-0.77% · 22h-0.77%22h-0.14% · 23h-0.14% · 23h-0.14%23h0.04% · 00h0.04% · 00h0.04%00h0.63% · 01h0.63% · 01h0.63%01h-0.65% · 02h-0.65% · 02h-0.65%02h0.77% · 03h0.77% · 03h0.77%03h-0.51% · 04h-0.51% · 04h-0.51%04h0.14% · 05h0.14% · 05h0.14%05h-0.64% · 06h-0.64% · 06h-0.64%06h-0.29% · 07h-0.29% · 07h-0.29%07h0.35% · 08h0.35% · 08h0.35%08h0.48% · 09h0.48% · 09h0.48%09h-0.85% · 10h-0.85% · 10h-0.85%10h0.02% · 11h0.02% · 11h0.02%11h-0.26% · 12h-0.26% · 12h-0.26%12h-0.13% · 13h-0.13% · 13h-0.13%13h-1.79% · 14h-1.79% · 14h-1.79%14h▼ WORSTTIME PATTERNAsia-led (+-0.51%)RUNSup max 2 · down max 3BREADTH46% up · 54% down
11 up bars · 13 down · best 0.90% · worst -1.79% · typical |Δ| 0.509%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS WITH MODERATE DD (-2.94%)FINAL-2.94%MAX DD-3.80%RECOVERYONGOING · 23 barsMAX RUN-UP+0.90%UNDERWATER23/25 (92%)STREAK↘ 3EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9706 · peak 1.0090 · range [0.9706, 1.0090]1.00900.9706break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0090UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -3.80% · moderate0%-3.80%▼ TROUGH -3.80%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 1 total#1 -3.80%bar 3-25 · 23 bars · ONGOINGDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -3.80%)RECOVERYongoing · 23 barsTIME UNDER WATER92% of session · 23/25 bars
final equity 0.9706 (-2.94%) · max DD -3.80% · time-under-water 23/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +3 / −16 (16% positive) · μ=-11.85 · σ=14.58UNPROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST -49.73 (-2.60σ vs μ)49.7324.860.00-24.86-49.73μ = -11.857.917.91-6.17-6.17-6.40-6.40-14.58-14.58-2.00-2.00-9.22-9.22-16.47-16.47-2.81-2.813.853.8511.4211.42-6.27-6.27-33.00-33.00-5.02-5.02-15.62-15.62-23.19-23.19-27.21-27.21-17.71-17.71-12.84-12.84-49.73-49.73v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -49.728 · range [-49.73, 11.42] · μ -11.846 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=53.5485 · σ=7.4369 · range [43.5710, 74.5363] · R²=0.024▲ RISING +14.63%σ HIGH 13.89%LAST 74.536374.536366.795059.053651.312343.5710μ = 53.5485max 74.5363min 43.5710dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.02μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 74.54% · range [43.57%, 74.54%] · μ 53.55% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +1 / −18 (5% positive) · μ=-0.425 · σ=0.235MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.268 (+0.67σ vs μ)0.8220.4110.000-0.411-0.822μ = -0.425-0.636-0.636-0.565-0.565-0.624-0.624-0.548-0.548-0.369-0.369-0.209-0.209-0.374-0.374-0.386-0.386-0.769-0.769-0.822-0.822-0.707-0.707-0.613-0.613-0.343-0.3430.0480.048-0.186-0.186-0.169-0.169-0.311-0.311-0.233-0.233-0.268-0.268v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.268 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
3 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence3 reject·3 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
1.1347
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5670
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

REJECT H₀**

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
16.5315
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0056
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zoneserial dependence detected
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-0.4850
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.8895
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

REJECT H₀*

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
2.1374
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0326
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-random sign pattern (18 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.7178
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0119
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.7692
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0769
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.462 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=5.72e-5 · top T=2.00h (64.2%) · top-3 cover 78.8%STRONG CYCLE @ T≈2.0cumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)4.4e-43.3e-42.2e-41.1e-40.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 1.38e-5 · 2.0% energyperiod 24.0 · power 1.38e-5 · 2.0% energyperiod 12.0 · power 6.10e-6 · 0.9% energyperiod 12.0 · power 6.10e-6 · 0.9% energyperiod 8.0 · power 3.34e-5 · 4.9% energyperiod 8.0 · power 3.34e-5 · 4.9% energyperiod 6.0 · power 6.16e-6 · 0.9% energyperiod 6.0 · power 6.16e-6 · 0.9% energyperiod 4.8 · power 7.95e-7 · 0.1% energyperiod 4.8 · power 7.95e-7 · 0.1% energyperiod 4.0 · power 5.59e-5 · 8.1% energyperiod 4.0 · power 5.59e-5 · 8.1% energyperiod 3.4 · power 2.96e-5 · 4.3% energyperiod 3.4 · power 2.96e-5 · 4.3% energyperiod 3.0 · power 4.41e-5 · 6.4% energyperiod 3.0 · power 4.41e-5 · 6.4% energyperiod 2.7 · power 3.79e-6 · 0.6% energyperiod 2.7 · power 3.79e-6 · 0.6% energyperiod 2.4 · power 3.40e-5 · 5.0% energyperiod 2.4 · power 3.40e-5 · 5.0% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.79e-5 · 2.6% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.79e-5 · 2.6% energyperiod 2.0 · power 4.41e-4 · 64.2% energyperiod 2.0 · power 4.41e-4 · 64.2% energy50% by T=2.0h#1 dominantT=2.00h#2T=4.00h#3T=3.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.00h (freq 0.500) · concentrates 64.2% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 6.863e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5257847 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.001% per barparametric μ/σ² short edge (μ<0) · μ -0.001% · σ 0.03%
μ per barmean
-0.001%
σ per barvol
0.03%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-93.78×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.01%0.02%0.05%0.07%0.10%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -55.60400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.024
annualized -55.60
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.00%
VaR 95%5%
0.00%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.01%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.0%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -1000% · APY -100% · Sharpe -55.20σ ann 59% · Sortino -38.49 · n 4999 · ⚠ capped (n=4999 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
-6624%-5285%-3946%-2607%-1268%71%-1000.0%APR (simple)-100.0%APY (compound)58.9%Ann. vol σ-5519.9%Sharpe (ann)-3848.6%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.0230.0240.0250.0250.0260.026t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 14:50:31 UTC
Snapshot age
3.5s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 14:50:35 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
b34fd0133faeae6a861da2e864a061bc29c133637155938457eb226bf42a6b6d · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany94.4¢HL PREDSpain90.0¢HL PREDUruguay66.7¢POLYMARKETWill Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?1¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$63,859.5HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,656.05HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$59.91

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$17.18K
bid $9.65K · ask $7.52K
Depth within 50bp
$103.60K
bid $62.89K · ask $40.71K
Mid price
0.024494
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
11.8bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.009
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.235
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-ygg/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.0245106.23bp0.0245102FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.0245148.14bp0.0245305FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.02458336.28bp0.02465720PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.0244806.11bp0.0244792FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.0244748.24bp0.0244597FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.02442528.54bp0.02437420PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ SHORTS PAY · longs receive
Hourly funding
-1.551e-5
-0.00155% / hr
Annualised APR
-13.598%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
26.9d
longs receive
Short: days to 1% carry
26.9d
shorts pay
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGRECEIVE13.598%26.9d268.6d
SHORTPAY-13.598%26.9d268.6d

/api/asset/hl-ygg/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$3.82M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-ygg/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ BID-LEAN · +0.198 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
11 / 13
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$2.21M
real volume
Sell weight
$1.48M
real volume
Net delta
$729.49K
buyers net
Imbalance
19.79%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
19.8%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-ygg/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 7 found · deepest 2.16% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-14 14:00:00Z0ms0.025042→0.0245022.156%1
#22026-06-14 06:00:00Z2.0h0.025370→0.0250431.289%3
#32026-06-14 10:00:00Z2.0h0.025252→0.0249781.085%3

/api/asset/hl-ygg/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
58.86%
σ per bar = 0.000257
Mean return (annualised)
-3248.98%
μ per bar = -0.000006
Sharpe (rf=0)
-55.20
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
3.44%
peak 0.03 → trough 0.02 over 4896 bars

/api/asset/hl-ygg/risk · same metrics, JSON