POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · CHINA X PHILIPPINES MILITARY CLASH BEFORE 2027?

China x Philippines military clash before 2027?

YES · live
20.5¢
NO · live
79.5¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · china-x-philippines-military-clash-before-2027 · fresh · feed 4s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
125.70%
max drawdown
8.89%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
3.36%
RMS drawdown
pain index
2.76%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
4.45%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.85
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.85
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
944
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-china-x-philippines-military-clash-before-2027/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH4.1s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
20.5¢
NO · live
79.5¢
YES price · live 24h
n=25 · μ=0.2190 · σ=0.0050 · range [0.2050, 0.2250] · R²=0.205▼ FALLING -8.89%σ NORMAL 2.28%LAST 0.20500.22500.22000.21500.21000.2050μ = 0.2190max 0.2250min 0.2050dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.21μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 ticks · last 20.50¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 20.5%NO 79.5%NO79.5%79.50¢ · odds 1/1.26
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.732 / 1.00 bits (73%) · moderate uncertainty
YES
20.5%20.5¢4.88×▬ +0.00pp
NO
79.5%79.5¢1.26×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=24 · Σ=900 · μ=37.5 · σ=39.7 · CV=1.06BURSTYcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=160255075100μ = 3810050%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 900bp moved · peak 100bp · n=24 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
4.1s
▲YES mid
20.50¢ (20.50%)
▼NO mid
79.50¢ (79.50%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$103.4k
≋liquidity $
$60.1k
◳history points
25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.2190 · σ=0.0050 · range [0.2050, 0.2250] · R²=0.205▼ FALLING -8.89%σ NORMAL 2.28%LAST 0.20500.22500.22000.21500.21000.2050μ = 0.2190max 0.2250min 0.2050dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.21μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 20.50¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.7810 · σ=0.0050 · range [0.7750, 0.7950] · R²=0.205▲ RISING +2.58%σ LOW 0.64%LAST 0.79500.79500.79000.78500.78000.7750μ = 0.7810max 0.7950min 0.7750dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.21μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 79.50¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=24 · 10 bins · μ=-0.0003 · σ=0.0051 · skew=-0.47 (symmetric) · kurt=-0.70 (mesokurtic)1186304-0.90ppbin -0.90pp · n=4 · 36.4% peakbin -0.90pp · n=4 · 36.4% peak-0.70pp3-0.50ppbin -0.50pp · n=3 · 27.3% peakbin -0.50pp · n=3 · 27.3% peak-0.30pp-0.10pp110.10ppbin 0.10pp · n=11 · 100.0% peakbin 0.10pp · n=11 · 100.0% peak0.30pp50.50ppbin 0.50pp · n=5 · 45.5% peakbin 0.50pp · n=5 · 45.5% peak0.70pp10.90ppbin 0.90pp · n=1 · 9.1% peakbin 0.90pp · n=1 · 9.1% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-0.28 · kurt=-0.50 · near 13 / mid 11 / far 0 · OLS slope=0.97 intercept=-0.00MATCHES NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVEDUPPER TAIL NORMALMILDLY HEAVY LOWER-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25LEFT-SKEWED (G₁=-0.58)
μ MEAN21.90¢95% CI: [21.70¢, 22.10¢]
σ STD DEV0.50ppσ² = 0.250 · CV = 2.28%
med MEDIAN22.00¢Q₁ 21.50¢ · Q₃ 22.50¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 2.00pp · IQR 1.00pp (1.349σ→0.67pp)
min 20.50¢Q₁ 21.50¢med 22.00¢Q₃ 22.50¢max 22.50¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.576left-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂0.187mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ < med · left-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.20
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 0.67
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 4.00
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit root
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.086within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.404lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.649persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-2.436significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]persistent · H = 0.649
H = 0.649PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.086k=2-0.404k=3+0.021k=4-0.114k=5+0.3300+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 5% (|t|=2.44)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit rootfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.38high · clear structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 5% (|t|=2.44)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID677408
SLUGchina-x-philippines-military-clash-before-2027
CATEGORYChina x Philippines military clash before 2027?
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS NO (80¢)
PRIMARY · YES20.50¢implied prob 20.50% · decimal odds 4.88×
COUNTER · NO79.50¢implied prob 79.50% · decimal odds 1.26×
20.50¢
79.50¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYDEEP
24H VOLUME103.36k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY60.11k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS NO (80¢)|primary − counter| = 0.590 · entropy 0.732 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHDEEP100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 20.5%NO 79.5%YES p̂20.5%H = 0.732 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES4.88×(21¢)NO1.26×(80¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.732 bits (73% of max) · moderate uncertainty
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§8 · Time decay & θ projection

Time decay & theta projection
⏱ URGENCY · DISTANTresolves 2026-12-31 00:00 UTC
193days
12hrs
21min
193.52 days·θ = 2.449 pp/day
YES →$1.00(P = 20.5%)
NO →$0.00(P = 79.5%)
current: $0.2050 · expected return per side: $0.80 on YES hit · $0.20 on NO hit
0%25%50%75%100%YES $1NO $0NOW+96.8dRESOLVESP projection · σ=0.50% · path funnel to settle at YES=1 or NO=0
Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 2.449 pp/day
now193.52d left
2.449 pp/day×1.00
−25%145.14d left
2.828 pp/day×1.15
−50%96.76d left
3.464 pp/day×1.41
−75%48.38d left
4.899 pp/day×2.00
−90%19.35d left
7.746 pp/day×3.16
θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 1.00% · worst -1.00% · typical |Δ| 0.38%BEARISH SESSION -2.00%BEST+1.00%22hWORST-1.00%4hTYPICAL |Δ|0.38%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-2.00%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 2down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.07% · Σ -0.50%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.06% · Σ -0.50%US · 16-24 UTCμ +0.00% · Σ +0.00%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -2.00%+0.00%-2.00%0.00% · 1h0.00% · 1h·1h0.00% · 2h0.00% · 2h·2h0.00% · 3h0.00% · 3h·3h-1.00% · 4h-1.00% · 4h-1.00%4h▼ WORST0.00% · 5h0.00% · 5h·5h0.50% · 6h0.50% · 6h0.50%6h0.00% · 7h0.00% · 7h·7h0.00% · 8h0.00% · 8h·8h0.00% · 9h0.00% · 9h·9h-0.50% · 10h-0.50% · 10h-0.50%10h0.50% · 11h0.50% · 11h0.50%11h0.50% · 12h0.50% · 12h0.50%12h-1.00% · 13h-1.00% · 13h-1.00%13h0.00% · 14h0.00% · 14h·14h0.00% · 15h0.00% · 15h·15h0.50% · 16h0.50% · 16h0.50%16h0.50% · 17h0.50% · 17h0.50%17h-0.50% · 18h-0.50% · 18h-0.50%18h0.00% · 19h0.00% · 19h·19h-0.50% · 20h-0.50% · 20h-0.50%20h0.00% · 21h0.00% · 21h·21h1.00% · 22h1.00% · 22h1.00%22h★ BEST-1.00% · 23h-1.00% · 23h-1.00%23h-1.00% · 24h-1.00% · 24h-1.00%24hTIME PATTERNUS-led (+0.00%)RUNSup max 2 · down max 2BREADTH25% up · 29% down · 46% flat
6 up bars · 7 down · best 1.00% · worst -1.00% · typical |Δ| 0.375%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS WITH MODERATE DD (-2.01%)FINAL-2.01%MAX DD-2.01%RECOVERYONGOING · 21 barsMAX RUN-UP+0.00%UNDERWATER21/25 (84%)STREAK↘ 2EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9799 · peak 1.0000 · range [0.9799, 1.0000]1.00000.9799break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0000UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -2.01% · moderate0%-2.01%▼ TROUGH -2.01%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 1 total#1 -2.01%bar 5-25 · 21 bars · ONGOINGDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -2.01%)RECOVERYongoing · 21 barsTIME UNDER WATER84% of session · 21/25 bars
final equity 0.9799 (-2.01%) · max DD -2.01% · time-under-water 21/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +6 / −10 (32% positive) · μ=-3.60 · σ=16.28UNPROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST -30.86 (-1.67σ vs μ)30.8615.430.00-15.43-30.86μ = -3.60-15.87-15.87-15.87-15.87-15.87-15.87-15.87-15.870.000.0020.7220.7220.7220.72-13.34-13.34-13.34-13.34-13.34-13.3413.3413.3413.3413.34-13.34-13.3420.7220.720.000.000.000.0013.3413.34-22.83-22.83-30.86-30.86v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -30.857 · range [-30.86, 20.72] · μ -3.596 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=48.4687 · σ=10.5722 · range [29.5973, 70.9718] · R²=0.239▲ RISING +54.25%σ EXTREME 21.81%LAST 70.971870.971860.628250.284639.940929.5973μ = 48.4687max 70.9718min 29.5973dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.24μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 70.97% · range [29.60%, 70.97%] · μ 48.47% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +2 / −14 (11% positive) · μ=-0.115 · σ=0.136MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.065 (+0.36σ vs μ)0.4050.2020.000-0.202-0.405μ = -0.115-0.075-0.075-0.040-0.040-0.040-0.0400.0290.0290.0000.000-0.304-0.304-0.010-0.010-0.272-0.272-0.321-0.321-0.297-0.297-0.126-0.126-0.126-0.1260.0450.045-0.069-0.0690.0000.0000.0000.000-0.102-0.102-0.405-0.405-0.065-0.065v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.065 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
ALL TESTS PASS · data behaves as nominal0 reject·6 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
0.4641
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7929
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
8.8431
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1143
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-2.6844
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0803
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
0.8971
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3697
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (9 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.4117
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0721
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.8658
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0621
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.432 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=2.85e-5 · top T=4.80h (37.8%) · top-3 cover 78.2%2 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)1.3e-49.7e-56.5e-53.2e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 1.46e-5 · 4.3% energyperiod 24.0 · power 1.46e-5 · 4.3% energyperiod 12.0 · power 9.93e-6 · 2.9% energyperiod 12.0 · power 9.93e-6 · 2.9% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.64e-6 · 0.5% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.64e-6 · 0.5% energyperiod 6.0 · power 9.37e-6 · 2.7% energyperiod 6.0 · power 9.37e-6 · 2.7% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.29e-4 · 37.8% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.29e-4 · 37.8% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.67e-5 · 4.9% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.67e-5 · 4.9% energyperiod 3.4 · power 4.80e-5 · 14.1% energyperiod 3.4 · power 4.80e-5 · 14.1% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.04e-6 · 0.3% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.04e-6 · 0.3% energyperiod 2.7 · power 9.00e-5 · 26.3% energyperiod 2.7 · power 9.00e-5 · 26.3% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.72e-5 · 5.0% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.72e-5 · 5.0% energyperiod 2.2 · power 3.98e-6 · 1.2% energyperiod 2.2 · power 3.98e-6 · 1.2% energyperiod 2.0 · power 8.37e-35 · 0.0% energyperiod 2.0 · power 8.37e-35 · 0.0% energy50% by T=4.0h#1 dominantT=4.80h#2T=2.67h#3T=3.43hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 4.80h (freq 0.208) · concentrates 37.8% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 3.417e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (944 bars · effective 1752616 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 193.5 d · σ/bar 0.095pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 6.47ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.1630 · n = 944✓ n = 944
μ per bar
-0.001pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.095pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
0.47pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move194d
6.47pp
σ × √4644.366358333334
Terminal variancebinary
0.1630
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
20.5¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 0.16pp · ES₉₅ 0.20pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift -0.001pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.50pp · unique ratio 0.00✓ n = 944
VaR 95%
0.16pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
0.20pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
8.9pp
peak 22.5¢ → trough 20.5¢
Median step
0.50pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
20.5%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
4.878
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+388
$100 wins $388
FractionalUK
3.88 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$387.80
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 20.5%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.732 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.732 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
2.29 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.33 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
44447031562738174918016769793991804433486269578769473189935766976836636647978
NO token ID
45858479053746616749156519360893482359161569156141079722407137651102212018480
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-20 11:37:56 UTC
Snapshot age
4.1s
History points
25 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-20 11:38:01 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
c3145b939462e72a2ece2f5d9e63b9bc5193fcf6529be22a46a0f5ad7764a391 · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDSpain88.5¢HL PREDEcuador86.5¢HL PREDBelgium67.7¢POLYMARKETWill USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?3¢POLYMARKET Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?6¢POLYMARKETWill Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$63,675HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$70.84HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,726.5

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in China x Philippines military clash before 2027?

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
0.195000
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
512.8bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.441
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.100
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-china-x-philippines-military-clash-before-2027/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.200000256.41bp0.2000001FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.2870544720.72bp0.56000028FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.69713625750.56bp0.97000055FILLED
SELL$1.00K0.180844725.93bp0.1800002FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.1212643781.33bp0.05000015FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.0401767939.71bp0.01000019PARTIAL

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 944 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75M
Realized vol (annualised)
575.34%
σ per bar = 0.004346
Mean return (annualised)
-8851.93%
μ per bar = -0.000051
Sharpe (rf=0)
-15.39
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
8.89%
peak 0.23 → trough 0.20 over 817 bars

/api/asset/pm-china-x-philippines-military-clash-before-2027/risk · same metrics, JSON