POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · SPORTS

Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs CYBERSHOKE Esports - Map 2 Winner

YES · live
0.1¢
NO · live
100.0¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · cs2-fokus-cs1-2026-06-20-game2 · fresh · feed 11s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
2687.23%
max drawdown
99.93%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
89.59%
RMS drawdown
pain index
84.73%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
99.93%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.02
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.02
upside/downside
roll spread
361.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
365
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-cs2-fokus-cs1-2026-06-20-game2/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCWARMING10.8s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
0.1¢
NO · live
100.0¢
YES price · live 24h
n=18 · μ=0.5248 · σ=0.1918 · range [0.0005, 0.6550] · R²=0.238▼ FALLING -99.91%σ EXTREME 36.55%LAST 0.00050.65500.49140.32770.16410.0005μ = 0.5248max 0.6550min 0.0005dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.24μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
18 ticks · last 0.05¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 0.1%NO 100.0%NO100.0%99.95¢ · odds 1/1.00
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.006 / 1.00 bits (1%) · informative — one side favoured
YES
0.1%0.1¢2000.00×▬ +0.00pp
NO
100.0%100.0¢1.00×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=17 · Σ=8,745 · μ=514.4 · σ=1563.8 · CV=3.04BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=1601,6363,2734,9096,545μ = 5146,54550%h1h3h5h7h9h11h13h15h17#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 8745bp moved · peak 6545bp · n=17 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
10.8s
▲YES mid
0.05¢ (0.05%)
▼NO mid
99.95¢ (99.95%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$58.7k
≋liquidity $
$171.2k
◳history points
18 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=18 · μ=0.5248 · σ=0.1918 · range [0.0005, 0.6550] · R²=0.238▼ FALLING -99.91%σ EXTREME 36.55%LAST 0.00050.65500.49140.32770.16410.0005μ = 0.5248max 0.6550min 0.0005dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.24μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
18 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 0.05¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=18 · μ=0.4752 · σ=0.1918 · range [0.3450, 0.9995] · R²=0.238▲ RISING +124.61%σ EXTREME 40.36%LAST 0.99950.99950.83590.67230.50860.3450μ = 0.4752max 0.9995min 0.3450dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.24μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
18 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 99.95¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=17 · 10 bins · μ=-0.0387 · σ=0.1490 · skew=-3.40 (left-skewed) · kurt=10.46 (leptokurtic (fat tails))975201-61.80ppbin -61.80pp · n=1 · 11.1% peakbin -61.80pp · n=1 · 11.1% peak-54.51pp-47.21pp-39.92pp-32.62pp-25.33pp-18.03pp-10.74pp9-3.44ppbin -3.44pp · n=9 · 100.0% peakbin -3.44pp · n=9 · 100.0% peak73.85ppbin 3.85pp · n=7 · 77.8% peakbin 3.85pp · n=7 · 77.8% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=17
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=17 · skew=-3.64 · kurt=11.56 · near 4 / mid 9 / far 4 · OLS slope=0.61 intercept=-0.00LEPTOKURTIC — FAT TAILSTHIN UPPER TAILLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σΔ=-2.08σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=18LEPTOKURTIC · FAT TAILS (G₂=3.22)
μ MEAN52.48¢95% CI: [43.62¢, 61.34¢]
σ STD DEV19.18ppσ² = 367.897 · CV = 36.55%
med MEDIAN58.50¢Q₁ 57.62¢ · Q₃ 59.38¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 65.45pp · IQR 1.75pp (1.349σ→25.87pp)
min 0.05¢Q₁ 57.62¢med 58.50¢Q₃ 59.38¢max 65.50¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-2.221left-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂3.225leptokurtic · fat tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ < med · left-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.31
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 14.79
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.41
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MARTINGALE · UNPREDICTABLE
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.167within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.022lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.627persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-2.235significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]persistent · H = 0.627
H = 0.627PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.167k=2+0.022k=3+0.005k=4-0.008k=5-0.0310+1−1+0.49−0.49+ momentum (ρ > +0.49)− reversal (ρ < −0.49)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 5% (|t|=2.23)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMARTINGALE · UNPREDICTABLEfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.42high · clear structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 5% (|t|=2.23)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID2609092
SLUGcs2-fokus-cs1-2026-06-20-game2
CATEGORYSports
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS NO (100¢)
PRIMARY · YES0.05¢implied prob 0.05% · decimal odds 2000.00×
COUNTER · NO99.95¢implied prob 99.95% · decimal odds 1.00×
0.05¢
99.95¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYACTIVE
24H VOLUME58.70k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY171.17k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS NO (100¢)|primary − counter| = 0.999 · entropy 0.006 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHACTIVE100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 0.1%NO 100.0%YES p̂0.1%H = 0.006 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES2000.00×(0¢)NO1.00×(100¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.006 bits (1% of max) · informative — one side strongly favoured
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§8 · Time decay & θ projection

Time decay & theta projection
⏱ URGENCY · CRITICALresolves 2026-06-20 13:00 UTC
0days
00hrs
07min
7 minutes·θ = 93.966 pp/day
YES →$1.00(P = 0.1%)
NO →$0.00(P = 100.0%)
current: $0.0005 · expected return per side: $1.00 on YES hit · $0.00 on NO hit
0%25%50%75%100%YES $1NO $0NOW+0.1hRESOLVESP projection · σ=19.18% · path funnel to settle at YES=1 or NO=0
Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 93.966 pp/day
now0.12h left
93.966 pp/day×1.00
−25%0.09h left
108.502 pp/day×1.15
−50%0.06h left
132.887 pp/day×1.41
−75%0.03h left
187.931 pp/day×2.00
−90%0.01h left
297.145 pp/day×3.16
θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=17 bars · best 7.50% · worst -65.45% · typical |Δ| 5.14%MILD BEARISH -55.45%BEST+7.50%15hWORST-65.45%16hTYPICAL |Δ|5.14%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-55.45%Σ signed ΔSTREAK▬ 0flat-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +0.43% · Σ +3.00%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.88% · Σ +7.00%US · 16-24 UTCμ -32.73% · Σ -65.45%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -55.45%+10.00%-55.45%2.00% · 1h2.00% · 1h2.00%1h0.50% · 2h0.50% · 2h0.50%2h2.50% · 3h2.50% · 3h2.50%3h-1.50% · 4h-1.50% · 4h-1.50%4h-1.50% · 5h-1.50% · 5h-1.50%5h1.00% · 6h1.00% · 6h1.00%6h0.00% · 7h0.00% · 7h·7h0.00% · 8h0.00% · 8h·8h-0.50% · 9h-0.50% · 9h-0.50%9h1.00% · 10h1.00% · 10h1.00%10h1.50% · 11h1.50% · 11h1.50%11h0.00% · 12h0.00% · 12h·12h-1.00% · 13h-1.00% · 13h-1.00%13h-1.50% · 14h-1.50% · 14h-1.50%14h7.50% · 15h7.50% · 15h7.50%15h★ BEST-65.45% · 16h-65.45% · 16h-65.45%16h▼ WORST0.00% · 17h0.00% · 17h·17hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+7.00%)RUNSup max 3 · down max 2BREADTH41% up · 35% down · 24% flat
7 up bars · 6 down · best 7.50% · worst -65.45% · typical |Δ| 5.144%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=18 barsSEVERE DRAWDOWN -61.96%FINAL-61.96%MAX DD-65.45%RECOVERYONGOING · 2 barsMAX RUN-UP+10.10%UNDERWATER13/18 (72%)STREAK▬ 0EQUITY CURVE · end 0.3804 · peak 1.1010 · range [0.3804, 1.1010]1.10100.3804break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.1010UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -65.45% · severe0%-65.45%▼ TROUGH -65.45%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 2 total#1 -65.45%bar 17-18 · 2 bars · ONGOING#2 -2.98%bar 5-15 · 11 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYsevere (max -65.45%)RECOVERYongoing · 2 barsTIME UNDER WATER72% of session · 13/18 bars
final equity 0.3804 (-61.96%) · max DD -65.45% · time-under-water 13/18 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 4 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=14 · +8 / −5 (57% positive) · μ=7.19 · σ=33.33MIXED EDGELAST -40.97 (-1.44σ vs μ)51.2625.630.00-25.63-51.26μ = 7.1945.5745.570.000.005.935.93-38.21-38.21-11.35-11.3518.6018.6018.6018.6051.2651.2651.2651.2631.6631.66-17.69-17.6927.7727.77-41.83-41.83-40.97-40.97v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -40.969 · range [-41.83, 51.26] · μ 7.185 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=14 · μ=571.1650 · σ=1104.7682 · range [58.8855, 3177.9224] · R²=0.380▲ RISING +1789.50%σ EXTREME 193.42%LAST 3177.92243177.92242398.16311618.4039838.644758.8855μ = 571.1650max 3177.9224min 58.8855dataMA(2)OLS R²=0.38μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 3177.92% · range [58.89%, 3177.92%] · μ 571.17% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=14 · +4 / −10 (29% positive) · μ=-0.135 · σ=0.254MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.458 (-1.27σ vs μ)0.5050.2520.000-0.252-0.505μ = -0.135-0.505-0.505-0.023-0.023-0.226-0.2260.0560.056-0.436-0.436-0.013-0.013-0.382-0.3820.2000.200-0.200-0.2000.2160.2160.2260.226-0.154-0.154-0.186-0.186-0.458-0.458v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.458 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀***

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
233.5863
p-VALUE (log scale)
< 0.0001
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
0.6014
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.9858
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-0.6734
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.8457
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
0.3140
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7535
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (8 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.3300
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1297
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=2

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-0.4822
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6297
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.883 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=8 bins · noise floor μ=2.61e-2 · top T=2.83h (15.3%) · top-3 cover 44.3%WHITE NOISE · no dominant cyclecumulative energy ↗ (0 bins above 2× noise)3.2e-22.4e-21.6e-28.0e-30.0e+0μ noise floorperiod 17.0 · power 1.99e-2 · 9.5% energyperiod 17.0 · power 1.99e-2 · 9.5% energyperiod 8.5 · power 2.24e-2 · 10.7% energyperiod 8.5 · power 2.24e-2 · 10.7% energyperiod 5.7 · power 2.35e-2 · 11.2% energyperiod 5.7 · power 2.35e-2 · 11.2% energyperiod 4.3 · power 2.43e-2 · 11.6% energyperiod 4.3 · power 2.43e-2 · 11.6% energyperiod 3.4 · power 2.64e-2 · 12.6% energyperiod 3.4 · power 2.64e-2 · 12.6% energyperiod 2.8 · power 3.20e-2 · 15.3% energyperiod 2.8 · power 3.20e-2 · 15.3% energyperiod 2.4 · power 3.13e-2 · 15.0% energyperiod 2.4 · power 3.13e-2 · 15.0% energyperiod 2.1 · power 2.92e-2 · 14.0% energyperiod 2.1 · power 2.92e-2 · 14.0% energy50% by T=3.4h#1 dominantT=2.83h#2T=2.43h#3T=2.13hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.83h (freq 0.353) · concentrates 15.3% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 2.091e-1

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (365 bars · effective 1752908 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 0.3 d · σ/bar 2.030pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 4.97ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0005 · n = 365✓ n = 365
μ per bar
-0.203pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
2.030pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
9.95pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move0d
4.97pp
σ × √6
Terminal variancebinary
0.0005
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
0.1¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 3.54pp · ES₉₅ 4.39pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift -0.203pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 8.00pp · unique ratio 0.02✓ n = 365
VaR 95%
3.54pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
4.39pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
99.9pp
peak 74.0¢ → trough 0.1¢
Median step
8.00pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
0.1%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
2000.000
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+199900
$100 wins $199900
FractionalUK
1999.00 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$199900.00
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 0.1%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.006 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.006 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
10.97 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.00 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
6409462071468884826430859083035897402937681448152885596562904262598696888360
NO token ID
104775872896236681879842607670346581889702193491257580505573240299602027727334
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-20 12:52:26 UTC
Snapshot age
10.8s
History points
18 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-20 12:52:37 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
d597d806f61fbf78bf7e06e949908366fd11852dffae5ba39cde4e72d29a14ff · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

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Market depth

▸ volume + OI fallback · Polymarket YES

no live order book wired for this venue · showing 24h volume + open interest as a depth proxy. Per-bp depth tiers will populate once a live L2 fetcher lands.

24h notional volume
$58.70K
rolling 24h traded $
Open interest / liquidity
$171.17K
live capital sitting in the book
Volume / OI
34.3%
turnover proxy

Slippage scenarios

▸ no book · Polymarket YES

live order book unavailable — slippage scenarios suppress. Re-render once the venue's L2 fetcher succeeds.

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 365 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75M
Realized vol (annualised)
27200.51%
σ per bar = 0.205446
Mean return (annualised)
-3515349.48%
μ per bar = -0.020054
Sharpe (rf=0)
-129.24
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
99.93%
peak 0.74 → trough 0.00 over 116 bars

/api/asset/pm-cs2-fokus-cs1-2026-06-20-game2/risk · same metrics, JSON