POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · ECONOMICS
Fed rate hike in 2026?
42.5¢
57.5¢
▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle
polymarket · fed-rate-hike-in-2026 · fresh · feed 15s old24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
220.59%
max drawdown
11.76%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
7.41%
RMS drawdown
pain index
5.12%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
11.76%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
1.00
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.00
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API:
/api/m2m/pm-fed-rate-hike-in-2026/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →LIVEPOLL0SRCWARMING⏱--:--:-- UTCNEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
42.5¢
NO · live
57.5¢
25 ticks · last 42.50¢
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.984 / 1.00 bits (98%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
YES42.5%42.5¢2.35×▬ +0.00pp
NO57.5%57.5¢1.74×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Σ 1400bp moved · peak 500bp · n=24 ticks
15.5s
42.50¢ (42.50%)
57.50¢ (57.50%)
100.00%
0.000pp
$45.0k
$73.9k
25 ticks (live)
§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 42.50¢
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 57.50¢
§2 · Distribution of Δp
n=24
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.
§3 · Sample moments
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25LEFT-SKEWED (G₁=-0.97)
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOT
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.974left-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂0.206mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.
§5 · Time-series structure
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MARTINGALE · UNPREDICTABLE
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]
H = 0.894STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.
§6 · Microstructure
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
TWO-SIDED PRICING
42.50¢
57.50¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TEST
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITY
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.
§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis
FAIR MARKET · no edge
Probability scale (YES)
Implied decimal odds
YES2.35×(43¢)NO1.74×(57¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.984 bits (98% of max) · maximum uncertainty (~50/50)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.
§8 · Time decay & θ projection
⏱ URGENCY · DISTANTresolves 2026-12-09 00:00 UTC
177days
12hrs
56min
YES →$1.00
NO →$0.00
current: $0.4250 · expected return per side: $0.57 on YES hit · $0.42 on NO hit
Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 11.192 pp/day
now177.54d left11.192 pp/day×1.00
−25%133.15d left12.923 pp/day×1.15
−50%88.77d left15.828 pp/day×1.41
−75%44.38d left22.384 pp/day×2.00
−90%17.75d left35.392 pp/day×3.16
θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.
§9 · Hourly return heatmap
2 up bars · 5 down · best 5.00% · worst -5.00% · typical |Δ| 0.583%
§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown
final equity 0.9678 (-3.22%) · max DD -7.83% · time-under-water 23/25 bars
§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)
latest 38.210 · range [-73.99, 38.21] · μ -13.480 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
latest 191.05% · range [19.10%, 295.97%] · μ 133.15% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
latest -0.033 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk
§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
Jarque-Bera
REJECT H₀***H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)
STATISTIC
93.1616
p-VALUE (log scale)
< 0.0001
Ljung-Box(h=5)
FAIL TO REJECTnsH₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5
STATISTIC
7.2353
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2025
Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)
FAIL TO REJECTnsH₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)
STATISTIC
-2.0366
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2806
Wald-Wolfowitz runs
FAIL TO REJECTnsH₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random
STATISTIC
0.1519
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.8793
KPSS (μ stationarity)
FAIL TO REJECTnsH₀: p IS level-stationary
STATISTIC
0.4011
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0767
Variance ratio q=3
FAIL TO REJECTnsH₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1
STATISTIC
0.3178
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7506
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).
§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)
dominant period ≈ 2.67h (freq 0.375) · concentrates 18.9% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 2.683e-3
▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (2790 bars · effective 1752810 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.
§14 · Honest position analytics
A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →
§15 · Horizon returns
Horizon 177.5 d · σ/bar 0.141pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 9.21ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.2444 · n = 2790✓ n = 2790
μ per bar
+0.000pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.141pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
0.69pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move178d
9.21pp
σ × √4260.94339
Terminal variancebinary
0.2444
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
42.5¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.
§16 · Tail risk
VaR₉₅ 0.23pp · ES₉₅ 0.29pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift +0.000pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 5.00pp · unique ratio 0.00✓ n = 2790
VaR 95%
0.23pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
0.29pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
11.8pp
peak 42.5¢ → trough 37.5¢
Median step
5.00pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.
§17 · Odds conversion
Implied probabilityP
42.5%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
2.353
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+135
$100 wins $135
FractionalUK
1.35 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$135.29
clean dollar framing
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.
§18 · Binary entropy
Market entropyH(p)
0.984 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.984 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
1.23 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.80 bit
self-information
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.
§19 · Model-dependent surfaces
External model required
The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.
The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.
To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.
§∞ · Provenance & attestation
- Upstream (snapshot)
- gamma-api.polymarket.com
- Upstream (history)
- clob.polymarket.com
- YES token ID
75028752776148090296091099469912621384650554615761384992997579209329182670110- NO token ID
93005850938352995663334573245996733794924636935158112548608169054144721737755- Snapshot fetched
- 2026-06-14 11:03:08 UTC
- Snapshot age
- 15.5s
- History points
- 25 CLOB mids
- Page rendered
- 2026-06-14 11:03:23 UTC
- Storage policy
- no persistence — fetched on every request
- SHA-256 attestation
accb3950f7b98fb7325c61815fbf9ffdae5e088c7559d5e57089b9d0687ffe8e· deterministic hash of source snapshot- Open data licence
- CC0 / public domain
§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more
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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Economics
Market depth
▸ live order book · Polymarket YESDepth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
0.425000
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
235.3bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.059
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.348
ask-heavy top-of-book
Slippage scenarios
▸ live book walk · Polymarket YESSimulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-fed-rate-hike-in-2026/slippage?size=10000&side=buy
| Side | Notional | Avg fill | Slippage | Worst fill | Levels | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUY | $1.00K | 0.430000 | 117.65bp | 0.430000 | 1 | FILLED |
| BUY | $10.00K | 0.440915 | 374.48bp | 0.450000 | 3 | FILLED |
| BUY | $100.00K | 0.760051 | 7883.54bp | 0.990000 | 44 | FILLED |
| SELL | $1.00K | 0.414773 | 240.65bp | 0.410000 | 2 | FILLED |
| SELL | $10.00K | 0.376513 | 1140.88bp | 0.170000 | 15 | FILLED |
| SELL | $100.00K | 0.019994 | 9529.55bp | 0.010000 | 26 | PARTIAL |
Risk metrics
▸ sovereign store · 2,790 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75MRealized vol (annualised)
465.95%
σ per bar = 0.003519
Mean return (annualised)
0.00%
μ per bar = 0.000000
Sharpe (rf=0)
0.00
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
11.76%
peak 0.42 → trough 0.38 over 1086 bars
/api/asset/pm-fed-rate-hike-in-2026/risk · same metrics, JSON