POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · BRAZIL VS. HAITI

Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19?

YES · live
3.8¢
NO · live
96.3¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · fifwc-bra-hai-2026-06-19-hai · fresh · feed 0s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
10.36%
max drawdown
12.79%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
7.70%
RMS drawdown
pain index
6.01%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
12.79%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.08
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.08
upside/downside
roll spread
1.4 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-fifwc-bra-hai-2026-06-19-hai/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH2ms⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
3.8¢
NO · live
96.3¢
YES price · live 24h
n=25 · μ=0.0384 · σ=0.0038 · range [0.0325, 0.0435] · R²=0.295▲ RISING +15.38%σ HIGH 9.92%LAST 0.03750.04350.04070.03800.03530.0325μ = 0.0384max 0.0435min 0.0325dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.30μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 ticks · last 3.75¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 3.8%NO 96.3%NO96.3%96.25¢ · odds 1/1.04
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.231 / 1.00 bits (23%) · informative — one side favoured
YES
3.8%3.8¢26.67×▬ +0.00pp
NO
96.3%96.3¢1.04×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=24 · Σ=200 · μ=8.3 · σ=10.3 · CV=1.23BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=10010203040μ = 84050%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 200bp moved · peak 40bp · n=24 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
2ms
▲YES mid
3.75¢ (3.75%)
▼NO mid
96.25¢ (96.25%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$29.4k
≋liquidity $
$105.0k
◳history points
25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.0384 · σ=0.0038 · range [0.0325, 0.0435] · R²=0.295▲ RISING +15.38%σ HIGH 9.92%LAST 0.03750.04350.04070.03800.03530.0325μ = 0.0384max 0.0435min 0.0325dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.30μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 3.75¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.9616 · σ=0.0038 · range [0.9565, 0.9675] · R²=0.295▼ FALLING -0.52%σ LOW 0.40%LAST 0.96250.96750.96470.96200.95930.9565μ = 0.9616max 0.9675min 0.9565dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.30μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 96.25¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=24 · 10 bins · μ=0.0003 · σ=0.0013 · skew=0.33 (symmetric) · kurt=0.88 (mesokurtic)975201-0.27ppbin -0.27pp · n=1 · 11.1% peakbin -0.27pp · n=1 · 11.1% peak-0.20pp3-0.13ppbin -0.13pp · n=3 · 33.3% peakbin -0.13pp · n=3 · 33.3% peak3-0.06ppbin -0.06pp · n=3 · 33.3% peakbin -0.06pp · n=3 · 33.3% peak90.01ppbin 0.01pp · n=9 · 100.0% peakbin 0.01pp · n=9 · 100.0% peak30.08ppbin 0.08pp · n=3 · 33.3% peakbin 0.08pp · n=3 · 33.3% peak30.15ppbin 0.15pp · n=3 · 33.3% peakbin 0.15pp · n=3 · 33.3% peak10.22ppbin 0.22pp · n=1 · 11.1% peakbin 0.22pp · n=1 · 11.1% peak0.29pp10.36ppbin 0.36pp · n=1 · 11.1% peakbin 0.36pp · n=1 · 11.1% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=0.54 · kurt=2.09 · near 14 / mid 10 / far 0 · OLS slope=0.97 intercept=-0.00LEPTOKURTIC — FAT TAILSUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25PLATYKURTIC · THIN TAILS (G₂=-1.46)
μ MEAN3.84¢95% CI: [3.69¢, 3.99¢]
σ STD DEV0.38ppσ² = 0.145 · CV = 9.92%
med MEDIAN3.85¢Q₁ 3.45¢ · Q₃ 4.25¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 1.10pp · IQR 0.80pp (1.349σ→0.51pp)
min 3.25¢Q₁ 3.45¢med 3.85¢Q₃ 4.25¢max 4.35¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.132approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-1.460platykurtic · thin tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ median≈ equal · symmetric|μ−med| / σ = 0.02
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 0.64
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 2.89
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: TRENDING · variance ratio > 1
ρ(1) AUTOCORR+0.325within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.152lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.768strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT+3.105significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.768
H = 0.768STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1+0.325k=2+0.152k=3+0.350k=4+0.112k=5-0.1310+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=3.11)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONTRENDING · variance ratio > 1from Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.86very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=3.11)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID1897126
SLUGfifwc-bra-hai-2026-06-19-hai
CATEGORYBrazil vs. Haiti
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS NO (96¢)
PRIMARY · YES3.75¢implied prob 3.75% · decimal odds 26.67×
COUNTER · NO96.25¢implied prob 96.25% · decimal odds 1.04×
3.75¢
96.25¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYACTIVE
24H VOLUME29.38k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY105.04k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS NO (96¢)|primary − counter| = 0.925 · entropy 0.231 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHACTIVE100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 3.8%NO 96.3%YES p̂3.8%H = 0.231 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES26.67×(4¢)NO1.04×(96¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.231 bits (23% of max) · informative — one side strongly favoured
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§8 · Time decay & θ projection

Time decay & theta projection
⏱ URGENCY · LOWresolves 2026-06-20 00:30 UTC
5days
08hrs
17min
5.35 days·θ = 1.868 pp/day
YES →$1.00(P = 3.8%)
NO →$0.00(P = 96.3%)
current: $0.0375 · expected return per side: $0.96 on YES hit · $0.04 on NO hit
0%25%50%75%100%YES $1NO $0NOW+2.7dRESOLVESP projection · σ=0.38% · path funnel to settle at YES=1 or NO=0
Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 1.868 pp/day
now5.35d left
1.868 pp/day×1.00
−25%4.01d left
2.157 pp/day×1.15
−50%2.67d left
2.641 pp/day×1.41
−75%1.34d left
3.735 pp/day×2.00
−90%12.83h left
5.906 pp/day×3.16
θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 0.40% · worst -0.30% · typical |Δ| 0.08%MILD BULLISH +0.50%BEST+0.40%10hWORST-0.30%18hTYPICAL |Δ|0.08%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+0.50%Σ signed ΔSTREAK▬ 0flat-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +0.06% · Σ +0.40%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.07% · Σ +0.55%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.06% · Σ -0.45%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +0.50%+1.10%0.00%0.15% · 1h0.15% · 1h0.15%1h-0.05% · 2h-0.05% · 2h-0.05%2h-0.05% · 3h-0.05% · 3h-0.05%3h0.00% · 4h0.00% · 4h·4h0.05% · 5h0.05% · 5h0.05%5h0.10% · 6h0.10% · 6h0.10%6h0.20% · 7h0.20% · 7h0.20%7h0.15% · 8h0.15% · 8h0.15%8h0.15% · 9h0.15% · 9h0.15%9h0.40% · 10h0.40% · 10h0.40%10h★ BEST0.00% · 11h0.00% · 11h·11h-0.05% · 12h-0.05% · 12h-0.05%12h0.00% · 13h0.00% · 13h·13h0.00% · 14h0.00% · 14h·14h-0.10% · 15h-0.10% · 15h-0.10%15h0.05% · 16h0.05% · 16h0.05%16h0.00% · 17h0.00% · 17h·17h-0.30% · 18h-0.30% · 18h-0.30%18h▼ WORST0.00% · 19h0.00% · 19h·19h0.00% · 20h0.00% · 20h·20h-0.10% · 21h-0.10% · 21h-0.10%21h-0.10% · 22h-0.10% · 22h-0.10%22h0.00% · 23h0.00% · 23h·23h0.00% · 24h0.00% · 24h·24hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+0.55%)RUNSup max 6 · down max 2BREADTH33% up · 29% down · 38% flat
8 up bars · 7 down · best 0.40% · worst -0.30% · typical |Δ| 0.083%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsPROFITABLE +0.50%FINAL+0.50%MAX DD-0.60%RECOVERYONGOING · 13 barsMAX RUN-UP+1.10%UNDERWATER17/25 (68%)STREAK▬ 0EQUITY CURVE · end 1.0050 · peak 1.0110 · range [1.0000, 1.0110]1.01101.0000break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0110UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -0.60% · shallow0%-0.60%▼ TROUGH -0.60%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 2 total#1 -0.60%bar 13-25 · 13 bars · ONGOING#2 -0.10%bar 3-6 · 4 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYshallow (max -0.60%)RECOVERYongoing · 13 barsTIME UNDER WATER68% of session · 17/25 bars
final equity 1.0050 (0.50%) · max DD -0.60% · time-under-water 17/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +10 / −9 (53% positive) · μ=17.41 · σ=70.23MIXED EDGELAST -60.42 (-1.11σ vs μ)137.7768.880.00-68.88-137.77μ = 17.4138.2138.2140.1940.1975.0475.04137.77137.77134.86134.86117.36117.3683.1783.1761.2461.2446.0746.0721.6621.66-30.21-30.21-30.21-30.21-42.61-42.61-42.61-42.61-42.61-42.61-42.61-42.61-66.72-66.72-66.72-66.72-60.42-60.42v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -60.415 · range [-66.72, 137.77] · μ 17.413 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=10.7181 · σ=3.7190 · range [4.8332, 16.8514] · R²=0.000▼ FALLING -36.75%σ EXTREME 34.70%LAST 4.833216.851413.846910.84237.83784.8332μ = 10.7181max 16.8514min 4.8332dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.00μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 4.83% · range [4.83%, 16.85%] · μ 10.72% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +9 / −10 (47% positive) · μ=-0.072 · σ=0.332CLOSE TO MARTINGALELAST 0.167 (+0.72σ vs μ)0.5830.2920.000-0.292-0.583μ = -0.0720.0170.0170.4590.4590.5290.5290.4280.4280.0250.025-0.513-0.513-0.053-0.0530.1210.1210.1670.1670.0020.002-0.583-0.583-0.458-0.458-0.138-0.138-0.351-0.351-0.280-0.280-0.255-0.255-0.443-0.443-0.199-0.1990.1670.167v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 0.167 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
2 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence2 reject·4 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀**

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
9.7634
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0076
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
8.1030
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1494
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.5870
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4919
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
-1.3282
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1841
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (6 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.4417
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0592
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

REJECT H₀*

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
2.1677
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0302
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zoneVR 1.660 → trending
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=1.67e-6 · top T=24.00h (36.8%) · top-3 cover 64.4%2 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)7.4e-65.5e-63.7e-61.8e-60.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 7.35e-6 · 36.8% energyperiod 24.0 · power 7.35e-6 · 36.8% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.48e-6 · 7.4% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.48e-6 · 7.4% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.67e-6 · 8.4% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.67e-6 · 8.4% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.35e-7 · 0.7% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.35e-7 · 0.7% energyperiod 4.8 · power 2.08e-6 · 10.4% energyperiod 4.8 · power 2.08e-6 · 10.4% energyperiod 4.0 · power 2.08e-7 · 1.0% energyperiod 4.0 · power 2.08e-7 · 1.0% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.86e-6 · 9.3% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.86e-6 · 9.3% energyperiod 3.0 · power 3.45e-6 · 17.2% energyperiod 3.0 · power 3.45e-6 · 17.2% energyperiod 2.7 · power 7.95e-8 · 0.4% energyperiod 2.7 · power 7.95e-8 · 0.4% energyperiod 2.4 · power 4.35e-7 · 2.2% energyperiod 2.4 · power 4.35e-7 · 2.2% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.20e-6 · 6.0% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.20e-6 · 6.0% energyperiod 2.0 · power 4.17e-8 · 0.2% energyperiod 2.0 · power 4.17e-8 · 0.2% energy50% by T=8.0h#1 dominantT=24.00h#2T=3.00h#3T=4.80hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 24.00h (freq 0.042) · concentrates 36.8% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 2.000e-5

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (3039 bars · effective 1752908 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 5.3 d · σ/bar 0.017pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 0.20ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0361 · n = 3039✓ n = 3039
μ per bar
+0.000pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.017pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
0.09pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move5d
0.20pp
σ × √128.2918152777778
Terminal variancebinary
0.0361
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
3.8¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 0.03pp · ES₉₅ 0.04pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift +0.000pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.05pp · unique ratio 0.00✓ n = 3039
VaR 95%
0.03pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
0.04pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
13.8pp
peak 4.3¢ → trough 3.8¢
Median step
0.05pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
3.8%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
26.667
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+2567
$100 wins $2567
FractionalUK
25.67 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$2566.67
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 3.8%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.231 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.231 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
4.74 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.06 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
103635844992876723144379951385842243916752648056505794536281053774467895997557
NO token ID
103462436508909164015235874386562856644415119850465364415741512666894166373430
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 16:12:29 UTC
Snapshot age
2ms
History points
25 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-14 16:12:29 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
6a3a2f9ca3260bddad4a405a605cf0a7fe7f0c889a8a04fbcdad3f078786646c · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany94.5¢HL PREDSpain89.7¢HL PREDUruguay66.9¢POLYMARKETWill Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?1¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$64,103.5HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,665.45HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$60.45

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Brazil vs. Haiti

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
0.037500
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
266.7bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.307
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.059
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-fifwc-bra-hai-2026-06-19-hai/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.0477592735.61bp0.05000010FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.10997219325.91bp0.60000050FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.519060128416.05bp0.99900073PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.0308001786.79bp0.0300008FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.0206314498.36bp0.00100024PARTIAL
SELL$100.00K0.0206314498.36bp0.00100024PARTIAL

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 3,039 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75M
Realized vol (annualised)
567.76%
σ per bar = 0.004288
Mean return (annualised)
0.00%
μ per bar = 0.000000
Sharpe (rf=0)
0.00
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
13.79%
peak 0.04 → trough 0.04 over 133 bars

/api/asset/pm-fifwc-bra-hai-2026-06-19-hai/risk · same metrics, JSON