POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · CÔTE D'IVOIRE VS. ECUADOR - EXACT SCORE

Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 1 Ecuador?

YES · live
13.5¢
NO · live
86.5¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · fifwc-civ-ecu-2026-06-14-exact-score-0-1 · fresh · feed 0s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
96.90%
max drawdown
15.62%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
8.01%
RMS drawdown
pain index
6.76%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
9.60%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.00
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.00
upside/downside
roll spread
8.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
419
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-fifwc-civ-ecu-2026-06-14-exact-score-0-1/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH8ms⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
13.5¢
NO · live
86.5¢
YES price · live 24h
n=25 · μ=0.1600 · σ=0.0082 · range [0.1350, 0.1700] · R²=0.038▼ FALLING -10.00%σ HIGH 5.10%LAST 0.13500.17000.16130.15250.14380.1350μ = 0.1600max 0.1700min 0.1350dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.04μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 ticks · last 13.50¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 13.5%NO 86.5%NO86.5%86.50¢ · odds 1/1.16
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.571 / 1.00 bits (57%) · moderate uncertainty
YES
13.5%13.5¢7.41×▬ +0.00pp
NO
86.5%86.5¢1.16×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=24 · Σ=850 · μ=35.4 · σ=45.4 · CV=1.28BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=2003875113150μ = 3515050%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 850bp moved · peak 150bp · n=24 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
8ms
▲YES mid
13.50¢ (13.50%)
▼NO mid
86.50¢ (86.50%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$65.8k
≋liquidity $
$69.3k
◳history points
25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.1600 · σ=0.0082 · range [0.1350, 0.1700] · R²=0.038▼ FALLING -10.00%σ HIGH 5.10%LAST 0.13500.17000.16130.15250.14380.1350μ = 0.1600max 0.1700min 0.1350dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.04μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 13.50¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.8400 · σ=0.0082 · range [0.8300, 0.8650] · R²=0.038▲ RISING +1.76%σ LOW 0.97%LAST 0.86500.86500.85620.84750.83870.8300μ = 0.8400max 0.8650min 0.8300dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.04μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 86.50¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=24 · 10 bins · μ=0.0004 · σ=0.0053 · skew=-0.80 (left-skewed) · kurt=0.65 (mesokurtic)13107301-1.38ppbin -1.38pp · n=1 · 7.7% peakbin -1.38pp · n=1 · 7.7% peak-1.13pp2-0.88ppbin -0.88pp · n=2 · 15.4% peakbin -0.88pp · n=2 · 15.4% peak-0.63pp3-0.38ppbin -0.38pp · n=3 · 23.1% peakbin -0.38pp · n=3 · 23.1% peak-0.13pp130.13ppbin 0.13pp · n=13 · 100.0% peakbin 0.13pp · n=13 · 100.0% peak0.38pp30.63ppbin 0.63pp · n=3 · 23.1% peakbin 0.63pp · n=3 · 23.1% peak20.88ppbin 0.88pp · n=2 · 15.4% peakbin 0.88pp · n=2 · 15.4% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-0.45 · kurt=0.59 · near 14 / mid 10 / far 0 · OLS slope=0.96 intercept=-0.00MATCHES NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVEDUPPER TAIL NORMALMILDLY HEAVY LOWER-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25STRONGLY LEFT-SKEWED (G₁=-1.32)
μ MEAN16.00¢95% CI: [15.68¢, 16.32¢]
σ STD DEV0.82ppσ² = 0.667 · CV = 5.10%
med MEDIAN16.50¢Q₁ 15.50¢ · Q₃ 16.50¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 3.50pp · IQR 1.00pp (1.349σ→1.10pp)
min 13.50¢Q₁ 15.50¢med 16.50¢Q₃ 16.50¢max 17.00¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-1.323left-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂1.410leptokurtic · fat tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ < med · left-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.61
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 1.10
range ↔ σwide tails (range > 4σ)range / σ = 4.29
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit root
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.074within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.062lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT1.067strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-0.949fails 5% test
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 1.067
H = 1.067STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.074k=2-0.062k=3+0.247k=4-0.039k=5+0.1320+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]NOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=0.95)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit rootfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCENOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=0.95)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID2322451
SLUGfifwc-civ-ecu-2026-06-14-exact-score-0-1
CATEGORYCôte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador - Exact Score
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS NO (87¢)
PRIMARY · YES13.50¢implied prob 13.50% · decimal odds 7.41×
COUNTER · NO86.50¢implied prob 86.50% · decimal odds 1.16×
13.50¢
86.50¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYACTIVE
24H VOLUME65.76k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY69.34k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS NO (87¢)|primary − counter| = 0.730 · entropy 0.571 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHACTIVE100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 13.5%NO 86.5%YES p̂13.5%H = 0.571 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES7.41×(14¢)NO1.16×(87¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.571 bits (57% of max) · moderate uncertainty
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 1.00% · worst -1.50% · typical |Δ| 0.35%BEARISH SESSION -1.50%BEST+1.00%3hWORST-1.50%23hTYPICAL |Δ|0.35%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-1.50%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 2down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +0.14% · Σ +1.00%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.06% · Σ +0.50%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.25% · Σ -2.00%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -1.50%+2.00%-1.50%0.50% · 1h0.50% · 1h0.50%1h0.00% · 2h0.00% · 2h·2h1.00% · 3h1.00% · 3h1.00%3h★ BEST-0.50% · 4h-0.50% · 4h-0.50%4h0.00% · 5h0.00% · 5h·5h0.00% · 6h0.00% · 6h·6h0.00% · 7h0.00% · 7h·7h0.50% · 8h0.50% · 8h0.50%8h0.00% · 9h0.00% · 9h·9h0.00% · 10h0.00% · 10h·10h0.00% · 11h0.00% · 11h·11h0.00% · 12h0.00% · 12h·12h0.00% · 13h0.00% · 13h·13h0.00% · 14h0.00% · 14h·14h0.00% · 15h0.00% · 15h·15h0.50% · 16h0.50% · 16h0.50%16h0.00% · 17h0.00% · 17h·17h-0.50% · 18h-0.50% · 18h-0.50%18h0.00% · 19h0.00% · 19h·19h-1.00% · 20h-1.00% · 20h-1.00%20h-0.50% · 21h-0.50% · 21h-0.50%21h1.00% · 22h1.00% · 22h1.00%22h-1.50% · 23h-1.50% · 23h-1.50%23h▼ WORST-1.00% · 24h-1.00% · 24h-1.00%24hTIME PATTERNAsia-led (+1.00%)RUNSup max 1 · down max 2BREADTH21% up · 25% down · 54% flat
5 up bars · 6 down · best 1.00% · worst -1.50% · typical |Δ| 0.354%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS WITH MODERATE DD (-1.53%)FINAL-1.53%MAX DD-3.47%RECOVERYONGOING · 7 barsMAX RUN-UP+2.01%UNDERWATER19/25 (76%)STREAK↘ 2EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9847 · peak 1.0201 · range [0.9847, 1.0201]1.02010.9847break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0201UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -3.47% · moderate0%-3.47%▼ TROUGH -3.47%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 2 total#1 -3.47%bar 19-25 · 7 bars · ONGOING#2 -0.50%bar 5-16 · 12 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -3.47%)RECOVERYongoing · 7 barsTIME UNDER WATER76% of session · 19/25 bars
final equity 0.9847 (-1.53%) · max DD -3.47% · time-under-water 19/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +9 / −5 (47% positive) · μ=5.80 · σ=31.98MIXED EDGELAST -52.32 (-1.82σ vs μ)52.3226.160.00-26.16-52.32μ = 5.8030.2130.2115.8715.8730.2130.210.000.0038.2138.2138.2138.2138.2138.2138.2138.210.000.000.000.0038.2138.2138.2138.210.000.000.000.00-30.21-30.21-44.62-44.62-22.83-22.83-45.28-45.28-52.32-52.32v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -52.321 · range [-52.32, 38.21] · μ 5.804 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=35.3561 · σ=23.7977 · range [0.0000, 83.7138] · R²=0.193▲ RISING +73.21%σ EXTREME 67.31%LAST 83.713883.713862.785341.856920.92840.0000μ = 35.3561max 83.7138min 0.0000dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.19μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 83.71% · range [0.00%, 83.71%] · μ 35.36% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +1 / −13 (5% positive) · μ=-0.168 · σ=0.181MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.313 (-0.80σ vs μ)0.5070.2540.000-0.254-0.507μ = -0.168-0.458-0.458-0.454-0.454-0.333-0.3330.0000.000-0.233-0.233-0.233-0.233-0.233-0.233-0.033-0.0330.0000.0000.0000.000-0.033-0.033-0.233-0.2330.0000.0000.0000.000-0.021-0.0210.0450.045-0.155-0.155-0.507-0.507-0.313-0.313v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.313 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
ALL TESTS PASS · data behaves as nominal0 reject·6 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
1.9855
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3705
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
2.6982
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7488
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-0.6069
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.8612
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
-0.2916
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7706
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (6 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.2433
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2811
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.3560
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1751
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.587 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=3.19e-5 · top T=2.67h (24.3%) · top-3 cover 50.3%1 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEcumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)9.3e-57.0e-54.7e-52.3e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 3.35e-5 · 8.7% energyperiod 24.0 · power 3.35e-5 · 8.7% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.94e-5 · 5.1% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.94e-5 · 5.1% energyperiod 8.0 · power 4.76e-6 · 1.2% energyperiod 8.0 · power 4.76e-6 · 1.2% energyperiod 6.0 · power 3.23e-5 · 8.4% energyperiod 6.0 · power 3.23e-5 · 8.4% energyperiod 4.8 · power 5.87e-5 · 15.3% energyperiod 4.8 · power 5.87e-5 · 15.3% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.77e-5 · 4.6% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.77e-5 · 4.6% energyperiod 3.4 · power 3.32e-5 · 8.7% energyperiod 3.4 · power 3.32e-5 · 8.7% energyperiod 3.0 · power 4.06e-5 · 10.6% energyperiod 3.0 · power 4.06e-5 · 10.6% energyperiod 2.7 · power 9.32e-5 · 24.3% energyperiod 2.7 · power 9.32e-5 · 24.3% energyperiod 2.4 · power 4.10e-5 · 10.7% energyperiod 2.4 · power 4.10e-5 · 10.7% energyperiod 2.2 · power 7.95e-6 · 2.1% energyperiod 2.2 · power 7.95e-6 · 2.1% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.04e-6 · 0.3% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.04e-6 · 0.3% energy50% by T=3.4h#1 dominantT=2.67h#2T=4.80h#3T=2.40hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.67h (freq 0.375) · concentrates 24.3% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 3.833e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (419 bars · effective 1753103 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 0.3 d · σ/bar 0.073pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 0.18ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.1168 · n = 419✓ n = 419
μ per bar
-0.006pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.073pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
0.36pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move0d
0.18pp
σ × √6
Terminal variancebinary
0.1168
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
13.5¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 0.13pp · ES₉₅ 0.16pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift -0.006pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 1.00pp · unique ratio 0.01✓ n = 419
VaR 95%
0.13pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
0.16pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
15.6pp
peak 16.0¢ → trough 13.5¢
Median step
1.00pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
13.5%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
7.407
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+641
$100 wins $641
FractionalUK
6.41 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$640.74
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 13.5%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.571 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.571 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
2.89 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.21 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
69811533105946073037136411730375844202282935050212185563483775993387484269041
NO token ID
94515817676417743859440361822019027124373486072767845954197536768347678844679
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 23:00:00 UTC
Snapshot age
8ms
History points
25 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-14 23:00:00 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
942592aef54f0afdfcff259349bf15f51b7d2ee021e2bdbad4a1ce3cdde8d2cd · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador - Exact Score

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
0.145000
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
689.7bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.829
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.778
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-fifwc-civ-ecu-2026-06-14-exact-score-0-1/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.150000344.83bp0.1500001FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.158160907.62bp0.1800004FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.32191112200.77bp0.99000018PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.1225481548.38bp0.1000005FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.1120672271.25bp0.01000011PARTIAL
SELL$100.00K0.1120672271.25bp0.01000011PARTIAL

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 419 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75M
Realized vol (annualised)
659.70%
σ per bar = 0.004982
Mean return (annualised)
-71256.09%
μ per bar = -0.000406
Sharpe (rf=0)
-108.01
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
15.62%
peak 0.16 → trough 0.14 over 409 bars

/api/asset/pm-fifwc-civ-ecu-2026-06-14-exact-score-0-1/risk · same metrics, JSON