POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · CÔTE D'IVOIRE VS. ECUADOR - EXACT SCORE

Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 0 Ecuador?

YES · live
100.0¢
NO · live
0.1¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · fifwc-civ-ecu-2026-06-14-exact-score-1-0 · fresh · feed 0s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
3520.23%
max drawdown
20.00%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
5.43%
RMS drawdown
pain index
1.80%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
20.00%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
18.69
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
18.69
upside/downside
roll spread
76.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
709
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-fifwc-civ-ecu-2026-06-14-exact-score-1-0/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH9ms⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
100.0¢
NO · live
0.1¢
YES price · live 24h
n=25 · μ=0.1892 · σ=0.2304 · range [0.1150, 0.9995] · R²=0.226▲ RISING +732.92%σ EXTREME 121.76%LAST 0.99950.99950.77840.55730.33610.1150μ = 0.1892max 0.9995min 0.1150dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.23μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 ticks · last 99.95¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 100.0%NO 0.1%YES100.0%99.95¢ · odds 1/1.00
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.006 / 1.00 bits (1%) · informative — one side favoured
YES
100.0%100.0¢1.00×▬ +0.00pp
NO
0.1%0.1¢2000.00×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=24 · Σ=9,395 · μ=391.5 · σ=1487.7 · CV=3.80BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=2301,8253,6505,4757,300μ = 3917,30050%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 9395bp moved · peak 7300bp · n=24 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
9ms
▲YES mid
99.95¢ (99.95%)
▼NO mid
0.05¢ (0.05%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$92.4k
≋liquidity $
$121.7k
◳history points
25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.1892 · σ=0.2304 · range [0.1150, 0.9995] · R²=0.226▲ RISING +732.92%σ EXTREME 121.76%LAST 0.99950.99950.77840.55730.33610.1150μ = 0.1892max 0.9995min 0.1150dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.23μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 99.95¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.8108 · σ=0.2304 · range [0.0005, 0.8850] · R²=0.226▼ FALLING -99.94%σ EXTREME 28.41%LAST 0.00050.88500.66390.44270.22160.0005μ = 0.8108max 0.8850min 0.0005dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.23μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 0.05¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=24 · 10 bins · μ=0.0578 · σ=0.1333 · skew=4.50 (right-skewed) · kurt=18.51 (leptokurtic (fat tails))22171160222.70ppbin 2.70pp · n=22 · 100.0% peakbin 2.70pp · n=22 · 100.0% peak110.10ppbin 10.10pp · n=1 · 4.5% peakbin 10.10pp · n=1 · 4.5% peak17.50pp24.90pp32.30pp39.70pp47.10pp54.50pp61.90pp169.30ppbin 69.30pp · n=1 · 4.5% peakbin 69.30pp · n=1 · 4.5% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=4.42 · kurt=18.03 · near 5 / mid 12 / far 7 · OLS slope=0.53 intercept=-0.00LEPTOKURTIC — FAT TAILSUPPER TAIL NORMALTHIN LOWER TAIL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σΔ=+1.72σΔ=+2.70σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25LEPTOKURTIC · FAT TAILS (G₂=6.86)
μ MEAN18.92¢95% CI: [9.89¢, 27.95¢]
σ STD DEV23.04ppσ² = 530.614 · CV = 121.76%
med MEDIAN12.00¢Q₁ 12.00¢ · Q₃ 12.50¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 88.45pp · IQR 0.50pp (1.349σ→31.07pp)
min 11.50¢Q₁ 12.00¢med 12.00¢Q₃ 12.50¢max 99.95¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁2.918right-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂6.863leptokurtic · fat tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.30
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 62.15
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.84
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MARTINGALE · UNPREDICTABLE
ρ(1) AUTOCORR+0.161within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.002lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.290antipersistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT+2.592significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]antipersistent · H = 0.290
H = 0.290ANTIPERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1+0.161k=2+0.002k=3-0.008k=4-0.017k=5-0.0130+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=2.59)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMARTINGALE · UNPREDICTABLEfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.58high · clear structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=2.59)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID2322452
SLUGfifwc-civ-ecu-2026-06-14-exact-score-1-0
CATEGORYCôte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador - Exact Score
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS YES (100¢)
PRIMARY · YES99.95¢implied prob 99.95% · decimal odds 1.00×
COUNTER · NO0.05¢implied prob 0.05% · decimal odds 2000.00×
99.95¢
0.05¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYACTIVE
24H VOLUME92.43k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY121.68k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS YES (100¢)|primary − counter| = 0.999 · entropy 0.006 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHACTIVE100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 100.0%NO 0.1%YES p̂100.0%H = 0.006 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES1.00×(100¢)NO2000.00×(0¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.006 bits (1% of max) · informative — one side strongly favoured
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 73.00% · worst -1.00% · typical |Δ| 3.91%MILD BULLISH +87.95%BEST+73.00%23hWORST-1.00%8hTYPICAL |Δ|3.91%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+87.95%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↗ 3up-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +0.14% · Σ +1.00%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.13% · Σ -1.00%US · 16-24 UTCμ +9.81% · Σ +78.50%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +87.95%+87.95%-0.50%0.50% · 1h0.50% · 1h0.50%1h0.00% · 2h0.00% · 2h·2h0.00% · 3h0.00% · 3h·3h0.00% · 4h0.00% · 4h·4h0.00% · 5h0.00% · 5h·5h-0.50% · 6h-0.50% · 6h-0.50%6h1.00% · 7h1.00% · 7h1.00%7h-1.00% · 8h-1.00% · 8h-1.00%8h▼ WORST0.00% · 9h0.00% · 9h·9h-0.50% · 10h-0.50% · 10h-0.50%10h0.50% · 11h0.50% · 11h0.50%11h0.00% · 12h0.00% · 12h·12h0.00% · 13h0.00% · 13h·13h-0.50% · 14h-0.50% · 14h-0.50%14h0.50% · 15h0.50% · 15h0.50%15h0.00% · 16h0.00% · 16h·16h0.00% · 17h0.00% · 17h·17h0.00% · 18h0.00% · 18h·18h-0.50% · 19h-0.50% · 19h-0.50%19h0.00% · 20h0.00% · 20h·20h0.00% · 21h0.00% · 21h·21h6.00% · 22h6.00% · 22h6.00%22h73.00% · 23h73.00% · 23h73.00%23h★ BEST9.45% · 24h9.45% · 24h9.45%24hTIME PATTERNUS-led (+78.50%)RUNSup max 3 · down max 1BREADTH29% up · 21% down · 50% flat
7 up bars · 5 down · best 73.00% · worst -1.00% · typical |Δ| 3.915%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsSTRONG PROFIT +99.67% · SHALLOW DDFINAL+99.67%MAX DD-1.50%RECOVERYFULLY RECOVEREDMAX RUN-UP+99.67%UNDERWATER15/25 (60%)STREAK↗ 3EQUITY CURVE · end 1.9967 · peak 1.9967 · range [0.9948, 1.9967]1.99670.9948break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.9967UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -1.50% · moderate0%-1.50%▼ TROUGH -1.50%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 2 total#1 -1.50%bar 9-22 · 14 bars · recovered#2 -0.50%bar 7-7 · 1 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -1.50%)RECOVERYfully recoveredTIME UNDER WATER60% of session · 15/25 bars
final equity 1.9967 (99.67%) · max DD -1.50% · time-under-water 15/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +5 / −8 (26% positive) · μ=-0.35 · σ=23.55UNPROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST 47.53 (+2.03σ vs μ)47.5323.770.00-23.77-47.53μ = -0.350.000.0015.8715.87-11.74-11.74-11.74-11.74-22.83-22.83-10.60-10.600.000.00-30.21-30.21-20.72-20.720.000.0020.7220.720.000.000.000.00-20.72-20.720.000.00-38.21-38.2134.3434.3441.5741.5747.5347.53v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 47.533 · range [-38.21, 47.53] · μ -0.354 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=336.5762 · σ=844.4353 · range [19.1050, 2756.9079] · R²=0.292▲ RISING +9027.27%σ EXTREME 250.89%LAST 2701.42502756.90792072.45711388.0064703.555719.1050μ = 336.5762max 2756.9079min 19.1050dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.29μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 2701.42% · range [19.10%, 2756.91%] · μ 336.58% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +1 / −16 (5% positive) · μ=-0.347 · σ=0.254MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.059 (+1.14σ vs μ)0.7010.3510.000-0.351-0.701μ = -0.3470.0000.000-0.385-0.385-0.664-0.664-0.701-0.701-0.690-0.690-0.664-0.664-0.500-0.500-0.208-0.208-0.363-0.363-0.500-0.500-0.363-0.363-0.500-0.500-0.500-0.500-0.304-0.3040.0000.000-0.233-0.233-0.012-0.0120.0450.045-0.059-0.059v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.059 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀***

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
606.6011
p-VALUE (log scale)
< 0.0001
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
0.7194
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.9797
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
0.7132
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.9990
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
1.3533
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1759
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (9 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.3718
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0893
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-0.3015
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7630
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.908 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=2.21e-2 · top T=24.00h (12.3%) · top-3 cover 35.4%WHITE NOISE · no dominant cyclecumulative energy ↗ (0 bins above 2× noise)3.3e-22.4e-21.6e-28.2e-30.0e+0μ noise floorperiod 24.0 · power 3.27e-2 · 12.3% energyperiod 24.0 · power 3.27e-2 · 12.3% energyperiod 12.0 · power 3.13e-2 · 11.8% energyperiod 12.0 · power 3.13e-2 · 11.8% energyperiod 8.0 · power 2.97e-2 · 11.2% energyperiod 8.0 · power 2.97e-2 · 11.2% energyperiod 6.0 · power 2.77e-2 · 10.5% energyperiod 6.0 · power 2.77e-2 · 10.5% energyperiod 4.8 · power 2.32e-2 · 8.8% energyperiod 4.8 · power 2.32e-2 · 8.8% energyperiod 4.0 · power 2.29e-2 · 8.6% energyperiod 4.0 · power 2.29e-2 · 8.6% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.91e-2 · 7.2% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.91e-2 · 7.2% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.71e-2 · 6.5% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.71e-2 · 6.5% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.74e-2 · 6.6% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.74e-2 · 6.6% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.50e-2 · 5.6% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.50e-2 · 5.6% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.28e-2 · 4.8% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.28e-2 · 4.8% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.60e-2 · 6.1% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.60e-2 · 6.1% energy50% by T=4.8h#1 dominantT=24.00h#2T=12.00h#3T=8.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 24.00h (freq 0.042) · concentrates 12.3% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 2.648e-1

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (709 bars · effective 1753200 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 0.3 d · σ/bar 2.660pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 6.51ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0005 · n = 709✓ n = 709
μ per bar
+0.125pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
2.660pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
13.03pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move0d
6.51pp
σ × √6
Terminal variancebinary
0.0005
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
100.0¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 4.25pp · ES₉₅ 5.36pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift +0.125pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 2.00pp · unique ratio 0.01✓ n = 709
VaR 95%
4.25pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
5.36pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
20.0pp
peak 20.0¢ → trough 16.0¢
Median step
2.00pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
100.0%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
1.001
total return per $1
AmericanUS
-199900
risk $199900 to win $100
FractionalUK
0.00 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$0.05
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 100.0%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.006 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.006 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
0.00 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
10.97 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
29380288309058797813398679225477780247939504509698535672869844435158536412723
NO token ID
23417352356621206302943530849488631535945813427115294175223216979142574376099
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-15 01:54:21 UTC
Snapshot age
9ms
History points
25 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-15 01:54:21 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
be471eb05c2eb70ae6d11316c8935e6deedd07d2772bea7bc138627b981b32a5 · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador - Exact Score

Market depth

▸ volume + OI fallback · Polymarket YES

no live order book wired for this venue · showing 24h volume + open interest as a depth proxy. Per-bp depth tiers will populate once a live L2 fetcher lands.

24h notional volume
$92.43K
rolling 24h traded $
Open interest / liquidity
$121.68K
live capital sitting in the book
Volume / OI
76.0%
turnover proxy

Slippage scenarios

▸ no book · Polymarket YES

live order book unavailable — slippage scenarios suppress. Re-render once the venue's L2 fetcher succeeds.

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 709 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75M
Realized vol (annualised)
8569.33%
σ per bar = 0.064719
Mean return (annualised)
535449.82%
μ per bar = 0.003054
Sharpe (rf=0)
62.48
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
20.00%
peak 0.20 → trough 0.16 over 50 bars

/api/asset/pm-fifwc-civ-ecu-2026-06-14-exact-score-1-0/risk · same metrics, JSON