POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · CÔTE D'IVOIRE VS. ECUADOR - EXACT SCORE

Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 1 Ecuador?

YES · live
6.5¢
NO · live
93.5¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · fifwc-civ-ecu-2026-06-14-exact-score-2-1 · fresh · feed 0s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
0.00%
max drawdown
0.00%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
0.00%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.00%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
0.00%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
—
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.00
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
318
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-fifwc-civ-ecu-2026-06-14-exact-score-2-1/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH16ms⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
6.5¢
NO · live
93.5¢
YES price · live 24h
n=25 · μ=0.0678 · σ=0.0098 · range [0.0450, 0.0800] · R²=0.404▲ RISING +44.44%σ HIGH 14.45%LAST 0.06500.08000.07130.06250.05370.0450μ = 0.0678max 0.0800min 0.0450dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.40μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 ticks · last 6.50¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 6.5%NO 93.5%NO93.5%93.50¢ · odds 1/1.07
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.347 / 1.00 bits (35%) · informative — one side favoured
YES
6.5%6.5¢15.38×▬ +0.00pp
NO
93.5%93.5¢1.07×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=24 · Σ=900 · μ=37.5 · σ=42.3 · CV=1.13BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=1403875113150μ = 3715050%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 900bp moved · peak 150bp · n=24 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
16ms
▲YES mid
6.50¢ (6.50%)
▼NO mid
93.50¢ (93.50%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$52.0k
≋liquidity $
$115.3k
◳history points
25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.0678 · σ=0.0098 · range [0.0450, 0.0800] · R²=0.404▲ RISING +44.44%σ HIGH 14.45%LAST 0.06500.08000.07130.06250.05370.0450μ = 0.0678max 0.0800min 0.0450dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.40μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 6.50¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.9326 · σ=0.0105 · range [0.9200, 0.9600] · R²=0.417▼ FALLING -2.09%σ NORMAL 1.13%LAST 0.93500.96000.95000.94000.93000.9200μ = 0.9326max 0.9600min 0.9200dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.42μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 93.50¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=24 · 10 bins · μ=0.0014 · σ=0.0054 · skew=-0.86 (left-skewed) · kurt=0.70 (mesokurtic)1186301-1.38ppbin -1.38pp · n=1 · 9.1% peakbin -1.38pp · n=1 · 9.1% peak-1.13pp-0.87pp3-0.62ppbin -0.62pp · n=3 · 27.3% peakbin -0.62pp · n=3 · 27.3% peak1-0.38ppbin -0.38pp · n=1 · 9.1% peakbin -0.38pp · n=1 · 9.1% peak-0.12pp110.13ppbin 0.13pp · n=11 · 100.0% peakbin 0.13pp · n=11 · 100.0% peak10.38ppbin 0.38pp · n=1 · 9.1% peakbin 0.38pp · n=1 · 9.1% peak40.63ppbin 0.63pp · n=4 · 36.4% peakbin 0.63pp · n=4 · 36.4% peak30.88ppbin 0.88pp · n=3 · 27.3% peakbin 0.88pp · n=3 · 27.3% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-0.52 · kurt=1.02 · near 13 / mid 11 / far 0 · OLS slope=0.96 intercept=-0.00APPROXIMATELY NORMALUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25LEFT-SKEWED (G₁=-0.77)
μ MEAN6.78¢95% CI: [6.40¢, 7.16¢]
σ STD DEV0.98ppσ² = 0.960 · CV = 14.45%
med MEDIAN7.00¢Q₁ 6.50¢ · Q₃ 7.50¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 3.50pp · IQR 1.00pp (1.349σ→1.32pp)
min 4.50¢Q₁ 6.50¢med 7.00¢Q₃ 7.50¢max 8.00¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.772left-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.045mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ < med · left-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.22
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 1.32
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.57
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.36 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.365within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.220lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT1.007strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT+3.948significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 1.007
H = 1.007STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.365k=2+0.220k=3-0.043k=4+0.008k=5+0.2170+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=3.95)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.36 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=3.95)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID2322458
SLUGfifwc-civ-ecu-2026-06-14-exact-score-2-1
CATEGORYCôte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador - Exact Score
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS NO (94¢)
PRIMARY · YES6.50¢implied prob 6.50% · decimal odds 15.38×
COUNTER · NO93.50¢implied prob 93.50% · decimal odds 1.07×
6.50¢
93.50¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYACTIVE
24H VOLUME51.99k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY115.30k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS NO (94¢)|primary − counter| = 0.870 · entropy 0.347 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHACTIVE100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 6.5%NO 93.5%YES p̂6.5%H = 0.347 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES15.38×(7¢)NO1.07×(94¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.347 bits (35% of max) · informative — one side strongly favoured
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§8 · Time decay & θ projection

Time decay & theta projection
⏱ URGENCY · CRITICALresolves 2026-06-14 23:00 UTC
0days
00hrs
02min
3 minutes·θ = 4.800 pp/day
YES →$1.00(P = 6.5%)
NO →$0.00(P = 93.5%)
current: $0.0650 · expected return per side: $0.94 on YES hit · $0.07 on NO hit
0%25%50%75%100%YES $1NO $0NOW+0.0hRESOLVESP projection · σ=0.98% · path funnel to settle at YES=1 or NO=0
Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 4.800 pp/day
now0.05h left
4.800 pp/day×1.00
−25%0.04h left
5.543 pp/day×1.15
−50%0.02h left
6.788 pp/day×1.41
−75%0.01h left
9.600 pp/day×2.00
−90%0.00h left
15.179 pp/day×3.16
θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 1.00% · worst -1.50% · typical |Δ| 0.38%MILD BULLISH +2.00%BEST+1.00%2hWORST-1.50%21hTYPICAL |Δ|0.38%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+2.00%Σ signed ΔSTREAK▬ 0flat-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +0.29% · Σ +2.00%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.19% · Σ +1.50%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.19% · Σ -1.50%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +2.00%+3.50%0.00%0.00% · 1h0.00% · 1h·1h1.00% · 2h1.00% · 2h1.00%2h★ BEST0.50% · 3h0.50% · 3h0.50%3h0.00% · 4h0.00% · 4h·4h0.00% · 5h0.00% · 5h·5h0.50% · 6h0.50% · 6h0.50%6h0.00% · 7h0.00% · 7h·7h1.00% · 8h1.00% · 8h1.00%8h-0.50% · 9h-0.50% · 9h-0.50%9h0.00% · 10h0.00% · 10h·10h0.00% · 11h0.00% · 11h·11h0.00% · 12h0.00% · 12h·12h1.00% · 13h1.00% · 13h1.00%13h-0.50% · 14h-0.50% · 14h-0.50%14h0.50% · 15h0.50% · 15h0.50%15h0.00% · 16h0.00% · 16h·16h-0.50% · 17h-0.50% · 17h-0.50%17h0.00% · 18h0.00% · 18h·18h0.00% · 19h0.00% · 19h·19h0.50% · 20h0.50% · 20h0.50%20h-1.50% · 21h-1.50% · 21h-1.50%21h▼ WORST0.50% · 22h0.50% · 22h0.50%22h-0.50% · 23h-0.50% · 23h-0.50%23h0.00% · 24h0.00% · 24h·24hTIME PATTERNAsia-led (+2.00%)RUNSup max 2 · down max 1BREADTH33% up · 21% down · 46% flat
8 up bars · 5 down · best 1.00% · worst -1.50% · typical |Δ| 0.375%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsPROFITABLE +1.98%FINAL+1.98%MAX DD-1.51%RECOVERYONGOING · 11 barsMAX RUN-UP+3.54%UNDERWATER15/25 (60%)STREAK▬ 0EQUITY CURVE · end 1.0198 · peak 1.0354 · range [1.0000, 1.0354]1.03541.0000break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0354UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -1.51% · moderate0%-1.51%▼ TROUGH -1.51%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 2 total#1 -1.51%bar 15-25 · 11 bars · ONGOING#2 -0.50%bar 10-13 · 4 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -1.51%)RECOVERYongoing · 11 barsTIME UNDER WATER60% of session · 15/25 bars
final equity 1.0198 (1.98%) · max DD -1.51% · time-under-water 15/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +13 / −5 (68% positive) · μ=19.21 · σ=33.70PROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST -20.72 (-1.18σ vs μ)76.4238.210.00-38.21-76.42μ = 19.2176.4276.4276.4276.4276.4276.4230.2130.2130.2130.2130.2130.2115.8715.8738.2138.210.000.0030.2130.2130.2130.2113.3413.3413.3413.34-20.72-20.7220.7220.72-33.95-33.95-20.72-20.72-20.72-20.72-20.72-20.72v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -20.722 · range [-33.95, 76.42] · μ 19.208 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=50.8750 · σ=11.6282 · range [35.2278, 70.4557] · R²=0.428▲ RISING +84.39%σ EXTREME 22.86%LAST 70.455770.455761.648752.841744.034835.2278μ = 50.8750max 70.4557min 35.2278dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.43μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 70.46% · range [35.23%, 70.46%] · μ 50.88% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +2 / −17 (11% positive) · μ=-0.413 · σ=0.228MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.686 (-1.20σ vs μ)0.7080.3540.000-0.354-0.708μ = -0.413-0.133-0.1330.0670.067-0.333-0.333-0.583-0.583-0.521-0.521-0.458-0.458-0.454-0.454-0.233-0.233-0.333-0.333-0.646-0.646-0.708-0.708-0.492-0.492-0.419-0.419-0.363-0.3630.0490.049-0.342-0.342-0.598-0.598-0.657-0.657-0.686-0.686v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.686 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
3.6970
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1575
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
6.5754
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2533
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-2.6231
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0908
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
1.7507
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0800
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (10 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.5611
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0279
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.0981
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2722
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.666 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=3.33e-5 · top T=2.40h (26.7%) · top-3 cover 56.3%1 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEcumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)1.1e-48.0e-55.3e-52.7e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 2.71e-5 · 6.8% energyperiod 24.0 · power 2.71e-5 · 6.8% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.02e-5 · 5.1% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.02e-5 · 5.1% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.22e-6 · 0.3% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.22e-6 · 0.3% energyperiod 6.0 · power 3.85e-5 · 9.6% energyperiod 6.0 · power 3.85e-5 · 9.6% energyperiod 4.8 · power 6.82e-6 · 1.7% energyperiod 4.8 · power 6.82e-6 · 1.7% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.67e-5 · 4.2% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.67e-5 · 4.2% energyperiod 3.4 · power 4.33e-5 · 10.8% energyperiod 3.4 · power 4.33e-5 · 10.8% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.35e-5 · 3.4% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.35e-5 · 3.4% energyperiod 2.7 · power 7.11e-6 · 1.8% energyperiod 2.7 · power 7.11e-6 · 1.8% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.07e-4 · 26.7% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.07e-4 · 26.7% energyperiod 2.2 · power 5.19e-5 · 13.0% energyperiod 2.2 · power 5.19e-5 · 13.0% energyperiod 2.0 · power 6.67e-5 · 16.7% energyperiod 2.0 · power 6.67e-5 · 16.7% energy50% by T=2.4h#1 dominantT=2.40h#2T=2.00h#3T=2.18hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.40h (freq 0.417) · concentrates 26.7% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 4.000e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (318 bars · effective 1753200 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 0.3 d · σ/bar 0.000pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 0.00ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0608 · n = 318✓ n = 318
μ per bar
+0.000pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.000pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
0.00pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move0d
0.00pp
σ × √6
Terminal variancebinary
0.0608
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
6.5¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 0.00pp · ES₉₅ 0.00pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift +0.000pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.00pp · unique ratio 0.00✓ n = 318
VaR 95%
0.00pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
0.00pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
0.0pp
peak 6.5¢ → trough 6.5¢
Median step
0.00pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
6.5%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
15.385
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+1438
$100 wins $1438
FractionalUK
14.38 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$1438.46
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 6.5%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.347 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.347 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
3.94 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.10 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
78210590624996826559828423610023960859320058681814533617461118589512976905325
NO token ID
32056010383072233226250998873595570295407049563475567833501569308212896269928
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 22:57:02 UTC
Snapshot age
16ms
History points
25 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-14 22:57:02 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
75ba22d3652f6b2191e3f4461122e378127fd1488e68a344d03cd052ee3927e0 · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany100.0¢HL PREDDraw99.9¢HL PREDSpain91.2¢POLYMARKETWill Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?0¢POLYMARKETUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?79¢POLYMARKETWill Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$65,406HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,722.2HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$63.21

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador - Exact Score

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
0.065000
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
1538.5bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.770
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.628
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-fifwc-civ-ecu-2026-06-14-exact-score-2-1/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.070000769.23bp0.0700001FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.0906273942.57bp0.48000018FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.37743548066.92bp0.99000032PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.0576921124.26bp0.0400003FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.0502492269.34bp0.0100005PARTIAL
SELL$100.00K0.0502492269.34bp0.0100005PARTIAL

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 318 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75M
Realized vol (annualised)
0.00%
σ per bar = 0.000000
Mean return (annualised)
0.00%
μ per bar = 0.000000
Sharpe (rf=0)
0.00
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
0.00%
peak 0.07 → trough 0.07 over 0 bars

/api/asset/pm-fifwc-civ-ecu-2026-06-14-exact-score-2-1/risk · same metrics, JSON