POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · GERMANY VS. CURAÇAO

Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw?

YES · live
3.9¢
NO · live
96.2¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · fifwc-ger-kor-2026-06-14-draw · fresh · feed 2s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
21.86%
max drawdown
12.64%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
8.33%
RMS drawdown
pain index
7.27%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
11.64%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.95
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.95
upside/downside
roll spread
0.3 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-fifwc-ger-kor-2026-06-14-draw/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH1.8s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
3.9¢
NO · live
96.2¢
YES price · live 24h
n=25 · μ=0.0400 · σ=0.0013 · range [0.0380, 0.0425] · R²=0.123▼ FALLING -1.30%σ NORMAL 3.25%LAST 0.03800.04250.04140.04030.03910.0380μ = 0.0400max 0.0425min 0.0380dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.12μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 ticks · last 3.80¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 3.9%NO 96.2%NO96.2%96.15¢ · odds 1/1.04
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.235 / 1.00 bits (24%) · informative — one side favoured
YES
3.9%3.9¢25.97×▬ +0.00pp
NO
96.2%96.2¢1.04×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=24 · Σ=255 · μ=10.6 · σ=9.2 · CV=0.87BURSTYcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=1208152330μ = 113050%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 255bp moved · peak 30bp · n=24 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
1.8s
▲YES mid
3.85¢ (3.85%)
▼NO mid
96.15¢ (96.15%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$881.4k
≋liquidity $
$603.5k
◳history points
25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.0400 · σ=0.0013 · range [0.0380, 0.0425] · R²=0.123▼ FALLING -1.30%σ NORMAL 3.25%LAST 0.03800.04250.04140.04030.03910.0380μ = 0.0400max 0.0425min 0.0380dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.12μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 3.80¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.9600 · σ=0.0013 · range [0.9575, 0.9620] · R²=0.110▬ FLATσ LOW 0.13%LAST 0.96150.96200.96090.95970.95860.9575μ = 0.9600max 0.9620min 0.9575dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.11μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 96.15¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=24 · 10 bins · μ=0.0000 · σ=0.0014 · skew=-0.29 (symmetric) · kurt=-0.46 (mesokurtic)975201-0.27ppbin -0.27pp · n=1 · 11.1% peakbin -0.27pp · n=1 · 11.1% peak3-0.21ppbin -0.21pp · n=3 · 33.3% peakbin -0.21pp · n=3 · 33.3% peak1-0.15ppbin -0.15pp · n=1 · 11.1% peakbin -0.15pp · n=1 · 11.1% peak2-0.09ppbin -0.09pp · n=2 · 22.2% peakbin -0.09pp · n=2 · 22.2% peak1-0.03ppbin -0.03pp · n=1 · 11.1% peakbin -0.03pp · n=1 · 11.1% peak90.03ppbin 0.03pp · n=9 · 100.0% peakbin 0.03pp · n=9 · 100.0% peak30.09ppbin 0.09pp · n=3 · 33.3% peakbin 0.09pp · n=3 · 33.3% peak20.15ppbin 0.15pp · n=2 · 22.2% peakbin 0.15pp · n=2 · 22.2% peak10.21ppbin 0.21pp · n=1 · 11.1% peakbin 0.21pp · n=1 · 11.1% peak10.27ppbin 0.27pp · n=1 · 11.1% peakbin 0.27pp · n=1 · 11.1% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-0.13 · kurt=-0.30 · near 22 / mid 2 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.01 intercept=-0.00MATCHES NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVEDUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25APPROXIMATELY NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVED
μ MEAN4.00¢95% CI: [3.95¢, 4.05¢]
σ STD DEV0.13ppσ² = 0.017 · CV = 3.25%
med MEDIAN4.00¢Q₁ 3.90¢ · Q₃ 4.10¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.45pp · IQR 0.20pp (1.349σ→0.18pp)
min 3.80¢Q₁ 3.90¢med 4.00¢Q₃ 4.10¢max 4.25¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.192approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.961mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ median≈ equal · symmetric|μ−med| / σ = 0.00
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 0.88
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.46
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.56 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.557negative · reversal
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.069lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.863strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-1.797fails 5% test
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.863
H = 0.863STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..51 SIGNIFICANT LAG · k=1
k=1 ★-0.557k=2+0.069k=3+0.149k=4-0.027k=5-0.1190+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]MARGINAL @ 10% (|t|=1.80)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.56 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCEMARGINAL @ 10% (|t|=1.80)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID1897059
SLUGfifwc-ger-kor-2026-06-14-draw
CATEGORYGermany vs. Curaçao
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS NO (96¢)
PRIMARY · YES3.85¢implied prob 3.85% · decimal odds 25.97×
COUNTER · NO96.15¢implied prob 96.15% · decimal odds 1.04×
3.85¢
96.15¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYDEEP
24H VOLUME881.42k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY603.52k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS NO (96¢)|primary − counter| = 0.923 · entropy 0.235 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHDEEP100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 3.9%NO 96.2%YES p̂3.9%H = 0.235 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES25.97×(4¢)NO1.04×(96¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.235 bits (24% of max) · informative — one side strongly favoured
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§8 · Time decay & θ projection

Time decay & theta projection
⏱ URGENCY · VERY HIGHresolves 2026-06-14 17:00 UTC
0days
05hrs
54min
5.9 hours·θ = 0.636 pp/day
YES →$1.00(P = 3.9%)
NO →$0.00(P = 96.2%)
current: $0.0385 · expected return per side: $0.96 on YES hit · $0.04 on NO hit
0%25%50%75%100%YES $1NO $0NOW+3.0hRESOLVESP projection · σ=0.13% · path funnel to settle at YES=1 or NO=0
Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 0.636 pp/day
now5.91h left
0.636 pp/day×1.00
−25%4.43h left
0.735 pp/day×1.15
−50%2.96h left
0.900 pp/day×1.41
−75%1.48h left
1.273 pp/day×2.00
−90%0.59h left
2.012 pp/day×3.16
θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 0.30% · worst -0.30% · typical |Δ| 0.11%MIXED · 10 UP / 8 DN · neutralBEST+0.30%10hWORST-0.30%17hTYPICAL |Δ|0.11%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-0.05%Σ signed ΔSTREAK▬ 0flat-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +0.04% · Σ +0.25%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.01% · Σ -0.05%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.03% · Σ -0.25%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -0.05%+0.40%-0.05%0.10% · 1h0.10% · 1h0.10%1h0.05% · 2h0.05% · 2h0.05%2h-0.05% · 3h-0.05% · 3h-0.05%3h0.15% · 4h0.15% · 4h0.15%4h0.00% · 5h0.00% · 5h·5h-0.15% · 6h-0.15% · 6h-0.15%6h0.15% · 7h0.15% · 7h0.15%7h0.05% · 8h0.05% · 8h0.05%8h-0.20% · 9h-0.20% · 9h-0.20%9h0.30% · 10h0.30% · 10h0.30%10h★ BEST0.00% · 11h0.00% · 11h·11h-0.20% · 12h-0.20% · 12h-0.20%12h0.00% · 13h0.00% · 13h·13h0.00% · 14h0.00% · 14h·14h0.00% · 15h0.00% · 15h·15h0.10% · 16h0.10% · 16h0.10%16h-0.30% · 17h-0.30% · 17h-0.30%17h▼ WORST0.20% · 18h0.20% · 18h0.20%18h-0.20% · 19h-0.20% · 19h-0.20%19h0.10% · 20h0.10% · 20h0.10%20h-0.10% · 21h-0.10% · 21h-0.10%21h0.05% · 22h0.05% · 22h0.05%22h-0.10% · 23h-0.10% · 23h-0.10%23h0.00% · 24h0.00% · 24h·24hTIME PATTERNAsia-led (+0.25%)RUNSup max 2 · down max 1BREADTH42% up · 33% down · 25% flat
10 up bars · 8 down · best 0.30% · worst -0.30% · typical |Δ| 0.106%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsFLAT · NO MATERIAL MOVEMENTFINAL-0.05%MAX DD-0.45%RECOVERYONGOING · 13 barsMAX RUN-UP+0.40%UNDERWATER17/25 (68%)STREAK▬ 0EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9995 · peak 1.0040 · range [0.9995, 1.0040]1.00400.9995break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0040UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -0.45% · shallow0%-0.45%▼ TROUGH -0.45%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 4 total#1 -0.45%bar 13-25 · 13 bars · ONGOING#2 -0.20%bar 10-10 · 1 bars · recovered#3 -0.15%bar 7-8 · 2 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYshallow (max -0.45%)RECOVERYongoing · 13 barsTIME UNDER WATER68% of session · 17/25 bars
final equity 0.9995 (-0.05%) · max DD -0.45% · time-under-water 17/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +7 / −10 (37% positive) · μ=-3.90 · σ=17.50MIXED EDGELAST -35.00 (-1.78σ vs μ)41.4420.720.00-20.72-41.44μ = -3.9014.4414.4419.9519.9519.9519.950.000.0012.5512.5512.5512.557.937.93-4.20-4.20-8.50-8.509.749.74-15.87-15.87-41.44-41.440.000.00-16.76-16.76-8.04-8.04-15.87-15.87-20.44-20.44-5.21-5.21-35.00-35.00v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -34.998 · range [-41.44, 19.95] · μ -3.905 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=14.9487 · σ=3.1956 · range [9.2022, 18.4043] · R²=0.066▲ RISING +3.16%σ EXTREME 21.38%LAST 10.429318.404316.103813.803311.50279.2022μ = 14.9487max 18.4043min 9.2022dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.07μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 10.43% · range [9.20%, 18.40%] · μ 14.95% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +1 / −18 (5% positive) · μ=-0.467 · σ=0.264MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.706 (-0.90σ vs μ)0.8680.4340.000-0.434-0.868μ = -0.467-0.133-0.133-0.464-0.464-0.391-0.391-0.227-0.227-0.471-0.471-0.536-0.536-0.338-0.338-0.412-0.412-0.348-0.3480.0240.024-0.075-0.075-0.245-0.245-0.643-0.643-0.756-0.756-0.816-0.816-0.868-0.868-0.751-0.751-0.726-0.726-0.706-0.706v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.706 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
3 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence3 reject·3 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
0.0825
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.9596
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
9.7006
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0833
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-3.0487
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0319
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonestationary · mean-reverting (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

REJECT H₀**

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
3.0089
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0026
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-random sign pattern (16 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.3734
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0886
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

REJECT H₀*

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-2.3086
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0210
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zoneVR 0.298 → mean-reverting
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=2.26e-6 · top T=2.00h (28.0%) · top-3 cover 62.2%2 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)7.6e-65.7e-63.8e-61.9e-60.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 6.22e-7 · 2.3% energyperiod 24.0 · power 6.22e-7 · 2.3% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.29e-8 · 0.1% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.29e-8 · 0.1% energyperiod 8.0 · power 2.54e-7 · 0.9% energyperiod 8.0 · power 2.54e-7 · 0.9% energyperiod 6.0 · power 5.94e-7 · 2.2% energyperiod 6.0 · power 5.94e-7 · 2.2% energyperiod 4.8 · power 7.79e-7 · 2.9% energyperiod 4.8 · power 7.79e-7 · 2.9% energyperiod 4.0 · power 6.35e-7 · 2.3% energyperiod 4.0 · power 6.35e-7 · 2.3% energyperiod 3.4 · power 2.93e-6 · 10.8% energyperiod 3.4 · power 2.93e-6 · 10.8% energyperiod 3.0 · power 4.45e-6 · 16.4% energyperiod 3.0 · power 4.45e-6 · 16.4% energyperiod 2.7 · power 4.85e-6 · 17.9% energyperiod 2.7 · power 4.85e-6 · 17.9% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.94e-6 · 7.1% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.94e-6 · 7.1% energyperiod 2.2 · power 2.51e-6 · 9.2% energyperiod 2.2 · power 2.51e-6 · 9.2% energyperiod 2.0 · power 7.59e-6 · 28.0% energyperiod 2.0 · power 7.59e-6 · 28.0% energy50% by T=2.7h#1 dominantT=2.00h#2T=2.67h#3T=3.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.00h (freq 0.500) · concentrates 28.0% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 2.717e-5

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (2816 bars · effective 1752810 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 0.3 d · σ/bar 0.017pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 0.04ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0370 · n = 2816✓ n = 2816
μ per bar
-0.000pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.017pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
0.08pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move0d
0.04pp
σ × √6
Terminal variancebinary
0.0370
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
3.9¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 0.03pp · ES₉₅ 0.03pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift -0.000pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.05pp · unique ratio 0.00✓ n = 2816
VaR 95%
0.03pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
0.03pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
12.6pp
peak 4.3¢ → trough 3.8¢
Median step
0.05pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
3.9%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
25.974
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+2497
$100 wins $2497
FractionalUK
24.97 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$2497.40
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 3.9%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.235 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.235 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
4.70 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.06 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
43065699114218738643061430368238869232700747238329067809024727726995177258597
NO token ID
70361345364071436882740201217779608050753190101468453278134436864619706671216
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 11:05:14 UTC
Snapshot age
1.8s
History points
25 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-14 11:05:16 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
927683ca1f717483b23506caf3d46b392dd909564297ad04feb2470925788aea · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany94.4¢HL PREDSpain90.3¢HL PREDUruguay66.6¢POLYMARKETWill Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?23¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$64,450HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,672.2HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$60.85

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Germany vs. Curaçao

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
0.038500
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
259.7bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.571
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.939
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-fifwc-ger-kor-2026-06-14-draw/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.039856352.17bp0.0420004FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.0487282656.75bp0.06000017FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.16794233621.18bp0.96000075FILLED
SELL$1.00K0.037006388.14bp0.0370002FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.036135614.20bp0.0360003FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.0302972130.74bp0.00100035PARTIAL

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 2,816 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75M
Realized vol (annualised)
549.22%
σ per bar = 0.004148
Mean return (annualised)
-1596.67%
μ per bar = -0.000009
Sharpe (rf=0)
-2.91
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
12.64%
peak 0.04 → trough 0.04 over 633 bars

/api/asset/pm-fifwc-ger-kor-2026-06-14-draw/risk · same metrics, JSON