POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · GERMANY VS. CURAÇAO - EXACT SCORE

Exact Score: Germany 0 - 0 Curaçao?

YES · live
1.4¢
NO · live
98.7¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · fifwc-ger-kor-2026-06-14-exact-score-0-0 · fresh · feed 0s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
38.76%
max drawdown
60.61%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
29.05%
RMS drawdown
pain index
25.28%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
55.43%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.88
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.88
upside/downside
roll spread
3.4 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
1669
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-fifwc-ger-kor-2026-06-14-exact-score-0-0/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH18ms⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
1.4¢
NO · live
98.7¢
YES price · live 24h
n=25 · μ=0.0195 · σ=0.0058 · range [0.0065, 0.0255] · R²=0.756▼ FALLING -46.00%σ EXTREME 29.82%LAST 0.01350.02550.02070.01600.01120.0065μ = 0.0195max 0.0255min 0.0065dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.76μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 ticks · last 1.35¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 1.4%NO 98.7%NO98.7%98.65¢ · odds 1/1.01
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.103 / 1.00 bits (10%) · informative — one side favoured
YES
1.4%1.4¢74.07×▬ +0.00pp
NO
98.7%98.7¢1.01×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=24 · Σ=355 · μ=14.8 · σ=24.2 · CV=1.64BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=160255075100μ = 1510050%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 355bp moved · peak 100bp · n=24 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
18ms
▲YES mid
1.35¢ (1.35%)
▼NO mid
98.65¢ (98.65%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$70.9k
≋liquidity $
$50.0k
◳history points
25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.0195 · σ=0.0058 · range [0.0065, 0.0255] · R²=0.756▼ FALLING -46.00%σ EXTREME 29.82%LAST 0.01350.02550.02070.01600.01120.0065μ = 0.0195max 0.0255min 0.0065dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.76μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 1.35¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.9805 · σ=0.0058 · range [0.9745, 0.9935] · R²=0.756▲ RISING +1.18%σ LOW 0.59%LAST 0.98650.99350.98880.98400.97930.9745μ = 0.9805max 0.9935min 0.9745dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.76μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 98.65¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=24 · 10 bins · μ=-0.0003 · σ=0.0025 · skew=-1.50 (left-skewed) · kurt=4.63 (leptokurtic (fat tails))13107301-0.92ppbin -0.92pp · n=1 · 7.7% peakbin -0.92pp · n=1 · 7.7% peak-0.76pp-0.60pp1-0.44ppbin -0.44pp · n=1 · 7.7% peakbin -0.44pp · n=1 · 7.7% peak1-0.28ppbin -0.28pp · n=1 · 7.7% peakbin -0.28pp · n=1 · 7.7% peak5-0.12ppbin -0.12pp · n=5 · 38.5% peakbin -0.12pp · n=5 · 38.5% peak130.04ppbin 0.04pp · n=13 · 100.0% peakbin 0.04pp · n=13 · 100.0% peak20.20ppbin 0.20pp · n=2 · 15.4% peakbin 0.20pp · n=2 · 15.4% peak0.36pp10.52ppbin 0.52pp · n=1 · 7.7% peakbin 0.52pp · n=1 · 7.7% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-1.29 · kurt=4.59 · near 7 / mid 16 / far 1 · OLS slope=0.90 intercept=-0.00LEPTOKURTIC — FAT TAILSUPPER TAIL NORMALMILDLY HEAVY LOWER-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25PLATYKURTIC · THIN TAILS (G₂=-1.18)
μ MEAN1.95¢95% CI: [1.72¢, 2.17¢]
σ STD DEV0.58ppσ² = 0.337 · CV = 29.82%
med MEDIAN2.15¢Q₁ 1.45¢ · Q₃ 2.50¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 1.90pp · IQR 1.05pp (1.349σ→0.78pp)
min 0.65¢Q₁ 1.45¢med 2.15¢Q₃ 2.50¢max 2.55¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.457approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-1.180platykurtic · thin tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ < med · left-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.35
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 0.75
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.27
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit root
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.160within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.195lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.663persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-8.438significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]persistent · H = 0.663
H = 0.663PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.160k=2-0.195k=3+0.122k=4-0.238k=5+0.0810+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=8.44)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit rootfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.49high · clear structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=8.44)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID2322389
SLUGfifwc-ger-kor-2026-06-14-exact-score-0-0
CATEGORYGermany vs. Curaçao - Exact Score
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS NO (99¢)
PRIMARY · YES1.35¢implied prob 1.35% · decimal odds 74.07×
COUNTER · NO98.65¢implied prob 98.65% · decimal odds 1.01×
1.35¢
98.65¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYACTIVE
24H VOLUME70.89k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY49.97k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS NO (99¢)|primary − counter| = 0.973 · entropy 0.103 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHACTIVE100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 1.4%NO 98.7%YES p̂1.4%H = 0.103 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES74.07×(1¢)NO1.01×(99¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.103 bits (10% of max) · informative — one side strongly favoured
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§8 · Time decay & θ projection

Time decay & theta projection
⏱ URGENCY · VERY HIGHresolves 2026-06-14 17:00 UTC
0days
01hrs
28min
1.5 hours·θ = 2.842 pp/day
YES →$1.00(P = 1.4%)
NO →$0.00(P = 98.7%)
current: $0.0135 · expected return per side: $0.99 on YES hit · $0.01 on NO hit
0%25%50%75%100%YES $1NO $0NOW+0.7hRESOLVESP projection · σ=0.58% · path funnel to settle at YES=1 or NO=0
Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 2.842 pp/day
now1.47h left
2.842 pp/day×1.00
−25%1.10h left
3.282 pp/day×1.15
−50%0.73h left
4.020 pp/day×1.41
−75%0.37h left
5.685 pp/day×2.00
−90%0.15h left
8.989 pp/day×3.16
θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 0.60% · worst -1.00% · typical |Δ| 0.15%BEARISH SESSION -1.15%BEST+0.60%17hWORST-1.00%16hTYPICAL |Δ|0.15%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-1.15%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 1down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +0.00% · Σ +0.00%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.11% · Σ -0.85%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.02% · Σ -0.15%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -1.15%+0.05%-1.85%0.05% · 1h0.05% · 1h0.05%1h0.00% · 2h0.00% · 2h·2h0.00% · 3h0.00% · 3h·3h0.00% · 4h0.00% · 4h·4h0.00% · 5h0.00% · 5h·5h0.00% · 6h0.00% · 6h·6h-0.05% · 7h-0.05% · 7h-0.05%7h0.00% · 8h0.00% · 8h·8h-0.35% · 9h-0.35% · 9h-0.35%9h0.00% · 10h0.00% · 10h·10h0.00% · 11h0.00% · 11h·11h0.00% · 12h0.00% · 12h·12h-0.05% · 13h-0.05% · 13h-0.05%13h0.00% · 14h0.00% · 14h·14h-0.45% · 15h-0.45% · 15h-0.45%15h-1.00% · 16h-1.00% · 16h-1.00%16h▼ WORST0.60% · 17h0.60% · 17h0.60%17h★ BEST0.05% · 18h0.05% · 18h0.05%18h-0.10% · 19h-0.10% · 19h-0.10%19h0.25% · 20h0.25% · 20h0.25%20h-0.20% · 21h-0.20% · 21h-0.20%21h0.20% · 22h0.20% · 22h0.20%22h0.05% · 23h0.05% · 23h0.05%23h-0.15% · 24h-0.15% · 24h-0.15%24hTIME PATTERNAsia-led (+0.00%)RUNSup max 2 · down max 2BREADTH25% up · 33% down · 42% flat
6 up bars · 8 down · best 0.60% · worst -1.00% · typical |Δ| 0.148%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS · SHALLOW DD (-1.15%)FINAL-1.15%MAX DD-1.89%RECOVERYONGOING · 18 barsMAX RUN-UP+0.05%UNDERWATER18/25 (72%)STREAK↘ 1EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9885 · peak 1.0005 · range [0.9816, 1.0005]1.00050.9816break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0005UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -1.89% · moderate0%-1.89%▼ TROUGH -1.89%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 1 total#1 -1.89%bar 8-25 · 18 bars · ONGOINGDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -1.89%)RECOVERYongoing · 18 barsTIME UNDER WATER72% of session · 18/25 bars
final equity 0.9885 (-1.15%) · max DD -1.89% · time-under-water 18/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +4 / −15 (21% positive) · μ=-23.26 · σ=29.83UNPROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST 4.14 (+0.92σ vs μ)57.4328.710.00-28.71-57.43μ = -23.2638.2138.21-38.21-38.21-38.21-38.21-44.49-44.49-44.49-44.49-44.49-44.49-44.49-44.49-44.49-44.49-44.49-44.49-43.15-43.15-57.43-57.43-26.25-26.25-24.65-24.65-26.16-26.16-18.11-18.11-11.59-11.5943.6743.6722.7422.744.144.14v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 4.144 · range [-57.43, 43.67] · μ -23.261 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=23.8607 · σ=18.4052 · range [1.9105, 52.3978] · R²=0.419▲ RISING +821.95%σ EXTREME 77.14%LAST 17.613952.397839.776027.154214.53231.9105μ = 23.8607max 52.3978min 1.9105dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.42μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 17.61% · range [1.91%, 52.40%] · μ 23.86% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +1 / −18 (5% positive) · μ=-0.227 · σ=0.238MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.650 (-1.77σ vs μ)0.8020.4010.000-0.401-0.802μ = -0.227-0.033-0.033-0.033-0.033-0.233-0.233-0.079-0.079-0.316-0.316-0.316-0.316-0.282-0.282-0.282-0.282-0.079-0.079-0.068-0.0680.3160.316-0.278-0.278-0.180-0.180-0.186-0.186-0.134-0.134-0.415-0.415-0.264-0.264-0.802-0.802-0.650-0.650v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.650 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
2 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence2 reject·4 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀***

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
43.7205
p-VALUE (log scale)
< 0.0001
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
4.1859
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5247
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.1393
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7003
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
0.0813
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.9352
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (8 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀**

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.7986
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0072
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-0.9494
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3424
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.711 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=7.58e-6 · top T=3.00h (17.1%) · top-3 cover 45.9%1 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEcumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)1.6e-51.2e-57.8e-63.9e-60.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 4.74e-6 · 5.2% energyperiod 24.0 · power 4.74e-6 · 5.2% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.73e-6 · 3.0% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.73e-6 · 3.0% energyperiod 8.0 · power 7.59e-6 · 8.3% energyperiod 8.0 · power 7.59e-6 · 8.3% energyperiod 6.0 · power 8.66e-6 · 9.5% energyperiod 6.0 · power 8.66e-6 · 9.5% energyperiod 4.8 · power 7.20e-6 · 7.9% energyperiod 4.8 · power 7.20e-6 · 7.9% energyperiod 4.0 · power 7.01e-6 · 7.7% energyperiod 4.0 · power 7.01e-6 · 7.7% energyperiod 3.4 · power 8.22e-6 · 9.0% energyperiod 3.4 · power 8.22e-6 · 9.0% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.55e-5 · 17.1% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.55e-5 · 17.1% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.25e-5 · 13.7% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.25e-5 · 13.7% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.37e-5 · 15.1% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.37e-5 · 15.1% energyperiod 2.2 · power 2.96e-6 · 3.3% energyperiod 2.2 · power 2.96e-6 · 3.3% energyperiod 2.0 · power 9.38e-8 · 0.1% energyperiod 2.0 · power 9.38e-8 · 0.1% energy50% by T=3.4h#1 dominantT=3.00h#2T=2.40h#3T=2.67hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 3.00h (freq 0.333) · concentrates 17.1% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 9.092e-5

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (1669 bars · effective 1752908 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 0.3 d · σ/bar 0.029pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 0.07ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0133 · n = 1669✓ n = 1669
μ per bar
-0.000pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.029pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
0.14pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move0d
0.07pp
σ × √6
Terminal variancebinary
0.0133
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
1.4¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 0.05pp · ES₉₅ 0.06pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift -0.000pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.05pp · unique ratio 0.01✓ n = 1669
VaR 95%
0.05pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
0.06pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
60.6pp
peak 1.7¢ → trough 0.7¢
Median step
0.05pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
1.4%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
74.074
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+7307
$100 wins $7307
FractionalUK
73.07 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$7307.41
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 1.4%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.103 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.103 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
6.21 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.02 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
26165773002397575179227920560852955041465330103085176249006343352805747778249
NO token ID
16120095035970918496008009200222427117683308131808569611526113292212323270589
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 15:31:57 UTC
Snapshot age
18ms
History points
25 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-14 15:31:57 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
29154e845bed85a21b04fea95736885f80076df513688b3b101462aaacbd264f · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany94.3¢HL PREDSpain89.7¢HL PREDUruguay66.7¢POLYMARKETWill Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?1¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$63,990HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,661.6HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$60.5

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Germany vs. Curaçao - Exact Score

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
0.013500
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
2222.2bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.566
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.549
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-fifwc-ger-kor-2026-06-14-exact-score-0-0/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.03464015659.34bp0.09100023FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.210514145935.98bp0.93900048FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.700755509077.56bp0.97000052FILLED
SELL$1.00K0.0029297830.41bp0.0010007PARTIAL
SELL$10.00K0.0029297830.41bp0.0010007PARTIAL
SELL$100.00K0.0029297830.41bp0.0010007PARTIAL

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 1,669 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75M
Realized vol (annualised)
3465.66%
σ per bar = 0.026176
Mean return (annualised)
-21088.56%
μ per bar = -0.000120
Sharpe (rf=0)
-6.09
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
60.61%
peak 0.02 → trough 0.01 over 197 bars

/api/asset/pm-fifwc-ger-kor-2026-06-14-exact-score-0-0/risk · same metrics, JSON