POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · GERMANY VS. CURAÇAO - EXACT SCORE

Exact Score: Germany 0 - 1 Curaçao?

YES · live
0.7¢
NO · live
99.3¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · fifwc-ger-kor-2026-06-14-exact-score-0-1 · fresh · feed 0s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
44.95%
max drawdown
62.16%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
42.14%
RMS drawdown
pain index
37.52%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
58.37%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.73
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.73
upside/downside
roll spread
9.3 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
1731
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-fifwc-ger-kor-2026-06-14-exact-score-0-1/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH7ms⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
0.7¢
NO · live
99.3¢
YES price · live 24h
n=25 · μ=0.0148 · σ=0.0045 · range [0.0075, 0.0190] · R²=0.784▼ FALLING -60.53%σ EXTREME 30.57%LAST 0.00750.01900.01610.01320.01040.0075μ = 0.0148max 0.0190min 0.0075dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.78μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 ticks · last 0.75¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 0.7%NO 99.3%NO99.3%99.30¢ · odds 1/1.01
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.060 / 1.00 bits (6%) · informative — one side favoured
YES
0.7%0.7¢142.86×▬ +0.00pp
NO
99.3%99.3¢1.01×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=24 · Σ=395 · μ=16.5 · σ=24.2 · CV=1.47BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=16024487195μ = 169550%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 395bp moved · peak 95bp · n=24 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
7ms
▲YES mid
0.70¢ (0.70%)
▼NO mid
99.30¢ (99.30%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$113.3k
≋liquidity $
$49.7k
◳history points
25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.0148 · σ=0.0045 · range [0.0075, 0.0190] · R²=0.784▼ FALLING -60.53%σ EXTREME 30.57%LAST 0.00750.01900.01610.01320.01040.0075μ = 0.0148max 0.0190min 0.0075dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.78μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 0.75¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.9852 · σ=0.0045 · range [0.9810, 0.9925] · R²=0.784▲ RISING +1.17%σ LOW 0.46%LAST 0.99250.99250.98960.98680.98390.9810μ = 0.9852max 0.9925min 0.9810dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.78μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 99.25¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=24 · 10 bins · μ=-0.0005 · σ=0.0027 · skew=0.96 (right-skewed) · kurt=3.87 (leptokurtic (fat tails))1186301-0.62ppbin -0.62pp · n=1 · 9.1% peakbin -0.62pp · n=1 · 9.1% peak2-0.45ppbin -0.45pp · n=2 · 18.2% peakbin -0.45pp · n=2 · 18.2% peak1-0.29ppbin -0.29pp · n=1 · 9.1% peakbin -0.29pp · n=1 · 9.1% peak7-0.12ppbin -0.12pp · n=7 · 63.6% peakbin -0.12pp · n=7 · 63.6% peak110.04ppbin 0.04pp · n=11 · 100.0% peakbin 0.04pp · n=11 · 100.0% peak10.21ppbin 0.21pp · n=1 · 9.1% peakbin 0.21pp · n=1 · 9.1% peak0.37pp0.54pp0.70pp10.87ppbin 0.87pp · n=1 · 9.1% peakbin 0.87pp · n=1 · 9.1% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=1.08 · kurt=4.79 · near 11 / mid 12 / far 1 · OLS slope=0.91 intercept=-0.00LEPTOKURTIC — FAT TAILSUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25PLATYKURTIC · THIN TAILS (G₂=-1.70)
μ MEAN1.48¢95% CI: [1.30¢, 1.65¢]
σ STD DEV0.45ppσ² = 0.204 · CV = 30.57%
med MEDIAN1.75¢Q₁ 0.95¢ · Q₃ 1.90¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 1.15pp · IQR 0.95pp (1.349σ→0.61pp)
min 0.75¢Q₁ 0.95¢med 1.75¢Q₃ 1.90¢max 1.90¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.402approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-1.697platykurtic · thin tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ < med · left-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.61
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 0.64
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 2.55
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.49 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.487negative · reversal
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.058lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.828strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-9.128significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.828
H = 0.828STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..51 SIGNIFICANT LAG · k=1
k=1 ★-0.487k=2+0.058k=3-0.270k=4+0.288k=5-0.0050+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=9.13)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.49 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=9.13)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID2322390
SLUGfifwc-ger-kor-2026-06-14-exact-score-0-1
CATEGORYGermany vs. Curaçao - Exact Score
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS NO (99¢)
PRIMARY · YES0.70¢implied prob 0.70% · decimal odds 142.86×
COUNTER · NO99.30¢implied prob 99.30% · decimal odds 1.01×
0.70¢
99.30¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYDEEP
24H VOLUME113.34k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY49.73k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS NO (99¢)|primary − counter| = 0.986 · entropy 0.060 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHDEEP100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 0.7%NO 99.3%YES p̂0.7%H = 0.060 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES142.86×(1¢)NO1.01×(99¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.060 bits (6% of max) · informative — one side strongly favoured
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§8 · Time decay & θ projection

Time decay & theta projection
⏱ URGENCY · VERY HIGHresolves 2026-06-14 17:00 UTC
0days
01hrs
35min
1.6 hours·θ = 2.210 pp/day
YES →$1.00(P = 0.7%)
NO →$0.00(P = 99.3%)
current: $0.0070 · expected return per side: $0.99 on YES hit · $0.01 on NO hit
0%25%50%75%100%YES $1NO $0NOW+0.8hRESOLVESP projection · σ=0.45% · path funnel to settle at YES=1 or NO=0
Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 2.210 pp/day
now1.60h left
2.210 pp/day×1.00
−25%1.20h left
2.552 pp/day×1.15
−50%0.80h left
3.126 pp/day×1.41
−75%0.40h left
4.421 pp/day×2.00
−90%0.16h left
6.990 pp/day×3.16
θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 0.95% · worst -0.70% · typical |Δ| 0.16%BEARISH SESSION -1.15%BEST+0.95%16hWORST-0.70%17hTYPICAL |Δ|0.16%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-1.15%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 1down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.01% · Σ -0.10%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.11% · Σ -0.90%US · 16-24 UTCμ +0.00% · Σ +0.00%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -1.15%+0.00%-1.15%0.00% · 1h0.00% · 1h·1h0.00% · 2h0.00% · 2h·2h0.00% · 3h0.00% · 3h·3h0.00% · 4h0.00% · 4h·4h0.00% · 5h0.00% · 5h·5h0.00% · 6h0.00% · 6h·6h-0.10% · 7h-0.10% · 7h-0.10%7h0.00% · 8h0.00% · 8h·8h-0.15% · 9h-0.15% · 9h-0.15%9h0.10% · 10h0.10% · 10h0.10%10h0.10% · 11h0.10% · 11h0.10%11h0.00% · 12h0.00% · 12h·12h-0.45% · 13h-0.45% · 13h-0.45%13h-0.05% · 14h-0.05% · 14h-0.05%14h-0.45% · 15h-0.45% · 15h-0.45%15h0.95% · 16h0.95% · 16h0.95%16h★ BEST-0.70% · 17h-0.70% · 17h-0.70%17h▼ WORST-0.25% · 18h-0.25% · 18h-0.25%18h-0.05% · 19h-0.05% · 19h-0.05%19h0.20% · 20h0.20% · 20h0.20%20h-0.10% · 21h-0.10% · 21h-0.10%21h-0.10% · 22h-0.10% · 22h-0.10%22h0.05% · 23h0.05% · 23h0.05%23h-0.15% · 24h-0.15% · 24h-0.15%24hTIME PATTERNUS-led (+0.00%)RUNSup max 2 · down max 3BREADTH21% up · 46% down · 33% flat
5 up bars · 11 down · best 0.95% · worst -0.70% · typical |Δ| 0.165%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS · SHALLOW DD (-1.15%)FINAL-1.15%MAX DD-1.15%RECOVERYONGOING · 18 barsMAX RUN-UP+0.00%UNDERWATER18/25 (72%)STREAK↘ 1EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9885 · peak 1.0000 · range [0.9885, 1.0000]1.00000.9885break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0000UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -1.15% · moderate0%-1.15%▼ TROUGH -1.15%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 1 total#1 -1.15%bar 8-25 · 18 bars · ONGOINGDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -1.15%)RECOVERYongoing · 18 barsTIME UNDER WATER72% of session · 18/25 bars
final equity 0.9885 (-1.15%) · max DD -1.15% · time-under-water 18/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +2 / −16 (11% positive) · μ=-23.39 · σ=18.06UNPROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST -18.08 (+0.29σ vs μ)58.6829.340.00-29.34-58.68μ = -23.390.000.00-38.21-38.21-38.21-38.21-58.68-58.68-26.58-26.58-7.64-7.64-7.64-7.64-29.86-29.86-33.95-33.95-45.28-45.283.043.04-18.63-18.63-25.32-25.32-15.11-15.11-8.06-8.061.421.42-52.09-52.09-25.48-25.48-18.08-18.08v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -18.079 · range [-58.68, 3.04] · μ -23.388 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=25.0168 · σ=20.6063 · range [0.0000, 54.8682] · R²=0.372▬ FLATσ EXTREME 82.37%LAST 12.113254.868241.151227.434113.71710.0000μ = 25.0168max 54.8682min 0.0000dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.37μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 12.11% · range [0.00%, 54.87%] · μ 25.02% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +1 / −17 (5% positive) · μ=-0.241 · σ=0.246MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.381 (-0.57σ vs μ)0.6180.3090.000-0.309-0.618μ = -0.2410.0000.000-0.033-0.033-0.233-0.233-0.267-0.267-0.565-0.565-0.121-0.121-0.089-0.089-0.028-0.028-0.032-0.032-0.032-0.032-0.278-0.278-0.618-0.618-0.547-0.547-0.578-0.578-0.546-0.546-0.332-0.3320.2370.237-0.139-0.139-0.381-0.381v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.381 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
3 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence3 reject·3 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀***

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
44.5748
p-VALUE (log scale)
< 0.0001
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
11.2607
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0460
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zoneserial dependence detected
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.3301
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6136
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
0.6856
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4930
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (9 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀**

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.8584
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0052
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.8973
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0578
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.423 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=9.24e-6 · top T=2.00h (24.4%) · top-3 cover 55.7%2 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)2.7e-52.0e-51.4e-56.8e-60.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 1.06e-6 · 1.0% energyperiod 24.0 · power 1.06e-6 · 1.0% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.21e-7 · 0.1% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.21e-7 · 0.1% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.30e-7 · 0.1% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.30e-7 · 0.1% energyperiod 6.0 · power 5.09e-6 · 4.6% energyperiod 6.0 · power 5.09e-6 · 4.6% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.26e-5 · 11.4% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.26e-5 · 11.4% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.08e-5 · 9.7% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.08e-5 · 9.7% energyperiod 3.4 · power 7.34e-6 · 6.6% energyperiod 3.4 · power 7.34e-6 · 6.6% energyperiod 3.0 · power 6.57e-6 · 5.9% energyperiod 3.0 · power 6.57e-6 · 5.9% energyperiod 2.7 · power 6.14e-6 · 5.5% energyperiod 2.7 · power 6.14e-6 · 5.5% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.19e-5 · 10.7% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.19e-5 · 10.7% energyperiod 2.2 · power 2.20e-5 · 19.8% energyperiod 2.2 · power 2.20e-5 · 19.8% energyperiod 2.0 · power 2.71e-5 · 24.4% energyperiod 2.0 · power 2.71e-5 · 24.4% energy50% by T=2.4h#1 dominantT=2.00h#2T=2.18h#3T=4.80hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.00h (freq 0.500) · concentrates 24.4% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 1.109e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (1731 bars · effective 1753005 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 0.3 d · σ/bar 0.034pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 0.08ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0070 · n = 1731✓ n = 1731
μ per bar
-0.001pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.034pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
0.17pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move0d
0.08pp
σ × √6
Terminal variancebinary
0.0070
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
0.7¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 0.06pp · ES₉₅ 0.07pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift -0.001pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.05pp · unique ratio 0.01✓ n = 1731
VaR 95%
0.06pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
0.07pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
62.2pp
peak 1.8¢ → trough 0.7¢
Median step
0.05pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
0.7%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
142.857
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+14186
$100 wins $14186
FractionalUK
141.86 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$14185.71
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 0.7%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.060 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.060 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
7.16 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.01 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
31248726390857016206346652850874207590689250194907055138653986525610552660797
NO token ID
12052620258470207641258383971838241143013238776684312234989581429413992852222
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 15:24:01 UTC
Snapshot age
7ms
History points
25 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-14 15:24:01 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
26bcbcdb09df3efa659892918379bb91ac4520cbb0ee48c9d588b2f1e11b5ecd · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany94.3¢HL PREDSpain89.3¢HL PREDUruguay66.7¢POLYMARKETWill Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?1¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$64,061.5HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,662.75HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$60.55

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Germany vs. Curaçao - Exact Score

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
0.007500
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
4000.0bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.204
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.987
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-fifwc-ger-kor-2026-06-14-exact-score-0-1/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.03415635540.78bp0.11300030FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.205158263543.57bp0.90000063FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.696877919169.72bp0.97000070FILLED
SELL$1.00K0.0010348620.93bp0.0010004PARTIAL
SELL$10.00K0.0010348620.93bp0.0010004PARTIAL
SELL$100.00K0.0010348620.93bp0.0010004PARTIAL

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 1,731 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75M
Realized vol (annualised)
4107.23%
σ per bar = 0.031021
Mean return (annualised)
-83767.16%
μ per bar = -0.000478
Sharpe (rf=0)
-20.40
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
62.16%
peak 0.02 → trough 0.01 over 1443 bars

/api/asset/pm-fifwc-ger-kor-2026-06-14-exact-score-0-1/risk · same metrics, JSON