POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · GERMANY VS. CURAÇAO - EXACT SCORE

Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao?

YES · live
9.5¢
NO · live
90.5¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · fifwc-ger-kor-2026-06-14-exact-score-2-0 · fresh · feed 4s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
143.53%
max drawdown
26.92%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
18.50%
RMS drawdown
pain index
15.77%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
26.92%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.80
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.80
upside/downside
roll spread
1.9 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-fifwc-ger-kor-2026-06-14-exact-score-2-0/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH3.6s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
9.5¢
NO · live
90.5¢
YES price · live 24h
n=25 · μ=0.1026 · σ=0.0089 · range [0.0950, 0.1200] · R²=0.002▼ FALLING -13.64%σ HIGH 8.69%LAST 0.09500.12000.11370.10750.10130.0950μ = 0.1026max 0.1200min 0.0950dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.00μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 ticks · last 9.50¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 9.5%NO 90.5%NO90.5%90.50¢ · odds 1/1.10
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.453 / 1.00 bits (45%) · informative — one side favoured
YES
9.5%9.5¢10.53×▬ +0.00pp
NO
90.5%90.5¢1.10×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=24 · Σ=1,450 · μ=60.4 · σ=69.1 · CV=1.14BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=15062125187250μ = 6025050%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 1450bp moved · peak 250bp · n=24 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
3.6s
▲YES mid
9.50¢ (9.50%)
▼NO mid
90.50¢ (90.50%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$99.2k
≋liquidity $
$75.9k
◳history points
25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.1026 · σ=0.0089 · range [0.0950, 0.1200] · R²=0.002▼ FALLING -13.64%σ HIGH 8.69%LAST 0.09500.12000.11370.10750.10130.0950μ = 0.1026max 0.1200min 0.0950dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.00μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 9.50¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.8974 · σ=0.0089 · range [0.8800, 0.9050] · R²=0.002▲ RISING +1.69%σ LOW 0.99%LAST 0.90500.90500.89880.89250.88620.8800μ = 0.8974max 0.9050min 0.8800dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.00μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 90.50¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=24 · 10 bins · μ=-0.0008 · σ=0.0084 · skew=1.30 (right-skewed) · kurt=1.47 (leptokurtic (fat tails))1085301-1.30ppbin -1.30pp · n=1 · 10.0% peakbin -1.30pp · n=1 · 10.0% peak5-0.90ppbin -0.90pp · n=5 · 50.0% peakbin -0.90pp · n=5 · 50.0% peak3-0.50ppbin -0.50pp · n=3 · 30.0% peakbin -0.50pp · n=3 · 30.0% peak10-0.10ppbin -0.10pp · n=10 · 100.0% peakbin -0.10pp · n=10 · 100.0% peak10.30ppbin 0.30pp · n=1 · 10.0% peakbin 0.30pp · n=1 · 10.0% peak10.70ppbin 0.70pp · n=1 · 10.0% peakbin 0.70pp · n=1 · 10.0% peak11.10ppbin 1.10pp · n=1 · 10.0% peakbin 1.10pp · n=1 · 10.0% peak1.50pp11.90ppbin 1.90pp · n=1 · 10.0% peakbin 1.90pp · n=1 · 10.0% peak12.30ppbin 2.30pp · n=1 · 10.0% peakbin 2.30pp · n=1 · 10.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=1.11 · kurt=1.41 · near 14 / mid 10 / far 0 · OLS slope=0.95 intercept=-0.00RIGHT-SKEWED · HEAVY POSITIVE TAILMILDLY HEAVY UPPERLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25RIGHT-SKEWED (G₁=0.58)
μ MEAN10.26¢95% CI: [9.91¢, 10.61¢]
σ STD DEV0.89ppσ² = 0.794 · CV = 8.69%
med MEDIAN9.50¢Q₁ 9.50¢ · Q₃ 11.00¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 2.50pp · IQR 1.50pp (1.349σ→1.20pp)
min 9.50¢Q₁ 9.50¢med 9.50¢Q₃ 11.00¢max 12.00¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.583right-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-1.185platykurtic · thin tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.85
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 0.80
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 2.81
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.27 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.270within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.118lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT1.082strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT+0.229fails 5% test
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 1.082
H = 1.082STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.270k=2-0.118k=3-0.090k=4+0.206k=5-0.1270+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]NOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=0.23)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.27 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCENOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=0.23)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID2322398
SLUGfifwc-ger-kor-2026-06-14-exact-score-2-0
CATEGORYGermany vs. Curaçao - Exact Score
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS NO (91¢)
PRIMARY · YES9.50¢implied prob 9.50% · decimal odds 10.53×
COUNTER · NO90.50¢implied prob 90.50% · decimal odds 1.10×
9.50¢
90.50¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYACTIVE
24H VOLUME99.15k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY75.92k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS NO (91¢)|primary − counter| = 0.810 · entropy 0.453 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHACTIVE100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 9.5%NO 90.5%YES p̂9.5%H = 0.453 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES10.53×(10¢)NO1.10×(91¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.453 bits (45% of max) · informative — one side strongly favoured
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§8 · Time decay & θ projection

Time decay & theta projection
⏱ URGENCY · VERY HIGHresolves 2026-06-14 17:00 UTC
0days
04hrs
33min
4.6 hours·θ = 4.366 pp/day
YES →$1.00(P = 9.5%)
NO →$0.00(P = 90.5%)
current: $0.0950 · expected return per side: $0.91 on YES hit · $0.10 on NO hit
0%25%50%75%100%YES $1NO $0NOW+2.3hRESOLVESP projection · σ=0.89% · path funnel to settle at YES=1 or NO=0
Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 4.366 pp/day
now4.56h left
4.366 pp/day×1.00
−25%3.42h left
5.041 pp/day×1.15
−50%2.28h left
6.174 pp/day×1.41
−75%1.14h left
8.732 pp/day×2.00
−90%0.46h left
13.806 pp/day×3.16
θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 2.50% · worst -1.50% · typical |Δ| 0.60%BEARISH SESSION -1.50%BEST+2.50%16hWORST-1.50%15hTYPICAL |Δ|0.60%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-1.50%Σ signed ΔSTREAK▬ 0flat-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.21% · Σ -1.50%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.00% · Σ +0.00%US · 16-24 UTCμ +0.00% · Σ +0.00%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -1.50%+1.00%-1.50%-0.50% · 1h-0.50% · 1h-0.50%1h0.00% · 2h0.00% · 2h·2h-1.00% · 3h-1.00% · 3h-1.00%3h0.00% · 4h0.00% · 4h·4h1.00% · 5h1.00% · 5h1.00%5h-1.00% · 6h-1.00% · 6h-1.00%6h0.00% · 7h0.00% · 7h·7h0.00% · 8h0.00% · 8h·8h0.00% · 9h0.00% · 9h·9h0.00% · 10h0.00% · 10h·10h0.00% · 11h0.00% · 11h·11h2.00% · 12h2.00% · 12h2.00%12h0.50% · 13h0.50% · 13h0.50%13h-1.00% · 14h-1.00% · 14h-1.00%14h-1.50% · 15h-1.50% · 15h-1.50%15h▼ WORST2.50% · 16h2.50% · 16h2.50%16h★ BEST-1.00% · 17h-1.00% · 17h-1.00%17h0.50% · 18h0.50% · 18h0.50%18h-0.50% · 19h-0.50% · 19h-0.50%19h-0.50% · 20h-0.50% · 20h-0.50%20h-1.00% · 21h-1.00% · 21h-1.00%21h0.00% · 22h0.00% · 22h·22h0.00% · 23h0.00% · 23h·23h0.00% · 24h0.00% · 24h·24hTIME PATTERNUS-led (+0.00%)RUNSup max 2 · down max 3BREADTH21% up · 38% down · 42% flat
5 up bars · 9 down · best 2.50% · worst -1.50% · typical |Δ| 0.604%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS WITH MODERATE DD (-1.59%)FINAL-1.59%MAX DD-2.53%RECOVERYONGOING · 11 barsMAX RUN-UP+0.97%UNDERWATER22/25 (88%)STREAK▬ 0EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9841 · peak 1.0097 · range [0.9841, 1.0097]1.00970.9841break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0097UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -2.53% · moderate0%-2.53%▼ TROUGH -2.53%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 2 total#1 -2.53%bar 15-25 · 11 bars · ONGOING#2 -1.50%bar 2-12 · 11 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -2.53%)RECOVERYongoing · 11 barsTIME UNDER WATER88% of session · 22/25 bars
final equity 0.9841 (-1.59%) · max DD -2.53% · time-under-water 22/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +5 / −9 (26% positive) · μ=-8.71 · σ=32.86UNPROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST -76.42 (-2.06σ vs μ)76.4238.210.00-38.21-76.42μ = -8.71-30.86-30.86-20.72-20.72-20.72-20.720.000.000.000.00-38.21-38.2138.2138.2148.6848.6823.7023.700.000.0024.4624.4613.8013.800.000.00-10.60-10.60-5.46-5.460.000.00-66.72-66.72-44.62-44.62-76.42-76.42v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -76.420 · range [-76.42, 48.68] · μ -8.709 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=90.1438 · σ=39.7211 · range [38.2099, 158.6978] · R²=0.062▼ FALLING -46.16%σ EXTREME 44.06%LAST 38.2099158.6978128.575998.453968.331938.2099μ = 90.1438max 158.6978min 38.2099dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.06μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 38.21% · range [38.21%, 158.70%] · μ 90.14% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +2 / −17 (11% positive) · μ=-0.250 · σ=0.261MEAN-REVERSIONLAST 0.167 (+1.60σ vs μ)0.6500.3250.000-0.325-0.650μ = -0.250-0.370-0.370-0.422-0.422-0.363-0.363-0.500-0.500-0.500-0.500-0.033-0.033-0.033-0.033-0.002-0.002-0.038-0.0380.2670.267-0.151-0.151-0.309-0.309-0.523-0.523-0.503-0.503-0.650-0.650-0.278-0.278-0.467-0.467-0.045-0.0450.1670.167v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 0.167 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀**

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
9.8579
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0072
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
4.4674
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4856
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-2.8191
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0570
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
0.9591
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3375
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (9 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.1276
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4832
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.2908
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1968
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.607 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=8.92e-5 · top T=2.00h (16.4%) · top-3 cover 46.7%WHITE NOISE · no dominant cyclecumulative energy ↗ (0 bins above 2× noise)1.8e-41.3e-48.8e-54.4e-50.0e+0μ noise floorperiod 24.0 · power 5.39e-5 · 5.0% energyperiod 24.0 · power 5.39e-5 · 5.0% energyperiod 12.0 · power 9.52e-6 · 0.9% energyperiod 12.0 · power 9.52e-6 · 0.9% energyperiod 8.0 · power 5.63e-6 · 0.5% energyperiod 8.0 · power 5.63e-6 · 0.5% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.39e-4 · 12.9% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.39e-4 · 12.9% energyperiod 4.8 · power 3.49e-5 · 3.3% energyperiod 4.8 · power 3.49e-5 · 3.3% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.43e-4 · 13.3% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.43e-4 · 13.3% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.64e-4 · 15.3% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.64e-4 · 15.3% energyperiod 3.0 · power 5.94e-5 · 5.5% energyperiod 3.0 · power 5.94e-5 · 5.5% energyperiod 2.7 · power 8.81e-5 · 8.2% energyperiod 2.7 · power 8.81e-5 · 8.2% energyperiod 2.4 · power 3.84e-5 · 3.6% energyperiod 2.4 · power 3.84e-5 · 3.6% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.60e-4 · 14.9% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.60e-4 · 14.9% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.76e-4 · 16.4% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.76e-4 · 16.4% energy50% by T=3.4h#1 dominantT=2.00h#2T=3.43h#3T=2.18hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.00h (freq 0.500) · concentrates 16.4% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 1.071e-3

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (2065 bars · effective 1752810 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 0.3 d · σ/bar 0.107pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 0.26ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0860 · n = 2065✓ n = 2065
μ per bar
-0.001pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.107pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
0.53pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move0d
0.26pp
σ × √6
Terminal variancebinary
0.0860
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
9.5¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 0.18pp · ES₉₅ 0.22pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift -0.001pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.50pp · unique ratio 0.00✓ n = 2065
VaR 95%
0.18pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
0.22pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
26.9pp
peak 13.0¢ → trough 9.5¢
Median step
0.50pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
9.5%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
10.526
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+953
$100 wins $953
FractionalUK
9.53 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$952.63
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 9.5%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.453 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.453 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
3.40 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.14 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
29632788868587544459442235937911142103324160322130433839310316644633738475363
NO token ID
25999694146000390418859508644477260415649418022696046365563988068714989520097
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 12:26:14 UTC
Snapshot age
3.6s
History points
25 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-14 12:26:18 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
95cd09af17e51667fa26a90195996daa6eefebd448048ae61187975aca845f92 · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany94.3¢HL PREDSpain90.2¢HL PREDUruguay66.6¢POLYMARKETWill Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?17¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$64,474HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,673.6HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$61.19

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Germany vs. Curaçao - Exact Score

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
0.095000
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
1052.6bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.685
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.629
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-fifwc-ger-kor-2026-06-14-exact-score-2-0/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.100000526.32bp0.1000001FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.1250313161.20bp0.49000011FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.30773422393.05bp0.99000029PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.0747852127.90bp0.0600004FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.0624523426.13bp0.0100008PARTIAL
SELL$100.00K0.0624523426.13bp0.0100008PARTIAL

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 2,065 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75M
Realized vol (annualised)
1281.23%
σ per bar = 0.009677
Mean return (annualised)
-19839.27%
μ per bar = -0.000113
Sharpe (rf=0)
-15.48
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
26.92%
peak 0.13 → trough 0.10 over 877 bars

/api/asset/pm-fifwc-ger-kor-2026-06-14-exact-score-2-0/risk · same metrics, JSON