POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · GERMANY VS. CURAÇAO - EXACT SCORE

Exact Score: Germany 2 - 2 Curaçao?

YES · live
0.7¢
NO · live
99.3¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · fifwc-ger-kor-2026-06-14-exact-score-2-2 · fresh · feed 7s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
4.87%
max drawdown
6.67%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
1.62%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.40%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
6.67%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
1.00
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.00
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
371
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-fifwc-ger-kor-2026-06-14-exact-score-2-2/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH6.8s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
0.7¢
NO · live
99.3¢
YES price · live 24h
n=25 · μ=0.0076 · σ=0.0015 · range [0.0035, 0.0115] · R²=0.433▼ FALLING -39.13%σ EXTREME 19.59%LAST 0.00700.01150.00950.00750.00550.0035μ = 0.0076max 0.0115min 0.0035dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.43μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 ticks · last 0.70¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 0.7%NO 99.3%NO99.3%99.30¢ · odds 1/1.01
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.060 / 1.00 bits (6%) · informative — one side favoured
YES
0.7%0.7¢142.86×▬ +0.00pp
NO
99.3%99.3¢1.01×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=24 · Σ=175 · μ=7.3 · σ=11.1 · CV=1.53BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=1809182635μ = 73550%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 175bp moved · peak 35bp · n=24 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
6.8s
▲YES mid
0.70¢ (0.70%)
▼NO mid
99.30¢ (99.30%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$26.7k
≋liquidity $
$75.0k
◳history points
25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.0076 · σ=0.0015 · range [0.0035, 0.0115] · R²=0.433▼ FALLING -39.13%σ EXTREME 19.59%LAST 0.00700.01150.00950.00750.00550.0035μ = 0.0076max 0.0115min 0.0035dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.43μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 0.70¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.9924 · σ=0.0015 · range [0.9885, 0.9965] · R²=0.433▲ RISING +0.46%σ LOW 0.15%LAST 0.99300.99650.99450.99250.99050.9885μ = 0.9924max 0.9965min 0.9885dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.43μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 99.30¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=24 · 10 bins · μ=-0.0003 · σ=0.0012 · skew=-0.78 (left-skewed) · kurt=1.34 (leptokurtic (fat tails))14117402-0.32ppbin -0.32pp · n=2 · 14.3% peakbin -0.32pp · n=2 · 14.3% peak-0.26pp1-0.20ppbin -0.20pp · n=1 · 7.1% peakbin -0.20pp · n=1 · 7.1% peak1-0.14ppbin -0.14pp · n=1 · 7.1% peakbin -0.14pp · n=1 · 7.1% peak-0.08pp14-0.02ppbin -0.02pp · n=14 · 100.0% peakbin -0.02pp · n=14 · 100.0% peak30.04ppbin 0.04pp · n=3 · 21.4% peakbin 0.04pp · n=3 · 21.4% peak10.10ppbin 0.10pp · n=1 · 7.1% peakbin 0.10pp · n=1 · 7.1% peak10.16ppbin 0.16pp · n=1 · 7.1% peakbin 0.16pp · n=1 · 7.1% peak10.22ppbin 0.22pp · n=1 · 7.1% peakbin 0.22pp · n=1 · 7.1% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-1.03 · kurt=1.67 · near 10 / mid 13 / far 1 · OLS slope=0.92 intercept=-0.00LEFT-SKEWED · HEAVY NEGATIVE TAILUPPER TAIL NORMALMILDLY HEAVY LOWER-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25MILD DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL
μ MEAN0.76¢95% CI: [0.71¢, 0.82¢]
σ STD DEV0.15ppσ² = 0.022 · CV = 19.59%
med MEDIAN0.80¢Q₁ 0.70¢ · Q₃ 0.85¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.80pp · IQR 0.15pp (1.349σ→0.20pp)
min 0.35¢Q₁ 0.70¢med 0.80¢Q₃ 0.85¢max 1.15¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.385approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂1.626leptokurtic · fat tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ < med · left-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.24
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 1.35
range ↔ σwide tails (range > 4σ)range / σ = 5.35
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit root
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.090within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.291lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.910strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-4.193significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.910
H = 0.910STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.090k=2-0.291k=3-0.034k=4-0.034k=5-0.1080+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=4.19)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit rootfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.91very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=4.19)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID2322405
SLUGfifwc-ger-kor-2026-06-14-exact-score-2-2
CATEGORYGermany vs. Curaçao - Exact Score
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS NO (99¢)
PRIMARY · YES0.70¢implied prob 0.70% · decimal odds 142.86×
COUNTER · NO99.30¢implied prob 99.30% · decimal odds 1.01×
0.70¢
99.30¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYACTIVE
24H VOLUME26.74k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY74.97k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS NO (99¢)|primary − counter| = 0.986 · entropy 0.060 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHACTIVE100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 0.7%NO 99.3%YES p̂0.7%H = 0.060 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES142.86×(1¢)NO1.01×(99¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.060 bits (6% of max) · informative — one side strongly favoured
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§8 · Time decay & θ projection

Time decay & theta projection
⏱ URGENCY · VERY HIGHresolves 2026-06-14 17:00 UTC
0days
04hrs
12min
4.2 hours·θ = 0.733 pp/day
YES →$1.00(P = 0.7%)
NO →$0.00(P = 99.3%)
current: $0.0070 · expected return per side: $0.99 on YES hit · $0.01 on NO hit
0%25%50%75%100%YES $1NO $0NOW+2.1hRESOLVESP projection · σ=0.15% · path funnel to settle at YES=1 or NO=0
Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 0.733 pp/day
now4.21h left
0.733 pp/day×1.00
−25%3.16h left
0.847 pp/day×1.15
−50%2.10h left
1.037 pp/day×1.41
−75%1.05h left
1.466 pp/day×2.00
−90%0.42h left
2.319 pp/day×3.16
θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 0.25% · worst -0.35% · typical |Δ| 0.07%MILD BEARISH -0.45%BEST+0.25%20hWORST-0.35%18hTYPICAL |Δ|0.07%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-0.45%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 1down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.04% · Σ -0.30%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.02% · Σ -0.15%US · 16-24 UTCμ +0.01% · Σ +0.05%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -0.45%+0.00%-0.80%-0.35% · 1h-0.35% · 1h-0.35%1h0.05% · 2h0.05% · 2h0.05%2h0.00% · 3h0.00% · 3h·3h0.00% · 4h0.00% · 4h·4h0.00% · 5h0.00% · 5h·5h0.00% · 6h0.00% · 6h·6h0.00% · 7h0.00% · 7h·7h0.00% · 8h0.00% · 8h·8h0.00% · 9h0.00% · 9h·9h0.00% · 10h0.00% · 10h·10h0.00% · 11h0.00% · 11h·11h-0.20% · 12h-0.20% · 12h-0.20%12h0.05% · 13h0.05% · 13h0.05%13h0.00% · 14h0.00% · 14h·14h0.00% · 15h0.00% · 15h·15h0.00% · 16h0.00% · 16h·16h0.15% · 17h0.15% · 17h0.15%17h-0.35% · 18h-0.35% · 18h-0.35%18h▼ WORST-0.15% · 19h-0.15% · 19h-0.15%19h0.25% · 20h0.25% · 20h0.25%20h★ BEST0.10% · 21h0.10% · 21h0.10%21h0.05% · 22h0.05% · 22h0.05%22h0.00% · 23h0.00% · 23h·23h-0.05% · 24h-0.05% · 24h-0.05%24hTIME PATTERNuniform across sessionsRUNSup max 3 · down max 2BREADTH25% up · 21% down · 54% flat
6 up bars · 5 down · best 0.25% · worst -0.35% · typical |Δ| 0.073%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS · SHALLOW DD (-0.45%)FINAL-0.45%MAX DD-0.80%RECOVERYONGOING · 24 barsMAX RUN-UP+0.00%UNDERWATER24/25 (96%)STREAK↘ 1EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9955 · peak 1.0000 · range [0.9920, 1.0000]1.00000.9920break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0000UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -0.80% · shallow0%-0.80%▼ TROUGH -0.80%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 1 total#1 -0.80%bar 2-25 · 24 bars · ONGOINGDD SEVERITYshallow (max -0.80%)RECOVERYongoing · 24 barsTIME UNDER WATER96% of session · 24/25 bars
final equity 0.9955 (-0.45%) · max DD -0.80% · time-under-water 24/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +3 / −10 (16% positive) · μ=-9.05 · σ=19.77UNPROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST 22.83 (+1.61σ vs μ)38.2119.100.00-19.10-38.21μ = -9.05-31.55-31.5538.2138.210.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00-38.21-38.21-26.58-26.58-26.58-26.58-26.58-26.58-26.58-26.580.000.00-13.80-13.80-31.83-31.83-7.30-7.300.000.003.543.54-7.46-7.4622.8322.83v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 22.835 · range [-38.21, 38.21] · μ -9.047 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=10.1281 · σ=7.4217 · range [0.0000, 20.5944] · R²=0.621▼ FALLING -7.89%σ EXTREME 73.28%LAST 12.787520.594415.445810.29725.14860.0000μ = 10.1281max 20.5944min 0.0000dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.62μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 12.79% · range [0.00%, 20.59%] · μ 10.13% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +1 / −14 (5% positive) · μ=-0.138 · σ=0.173MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.235 (-0.56σ vs μ)0.4030.2020.000-0.202-0.403μ = -0.138-0.159-0.159-0.033-0.0330.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000-0.033-0.033-0.403-0.403-0.371-0.371-0.371-0.371-0.371-0.371-0.154-0.154-0.343-0.343-0.102-0.102-0.191-0.191-0.052-0.052-0.026-0.0260.2240.224-0.235-0.235v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.235 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
3 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence3 reject·3 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀**

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
10.4735
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0053
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
3.0738
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6912
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

REJECT H₀**

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-3.4975
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0082
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonestationary · mean-reverting (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
0.3499
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7264
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (7 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.6601
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0172
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.4049
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1601
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.573 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=1.68e-6 · top T=3.43h (24.8%) · top-3 cover 65.2%BROADBAND · 3 CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (3 bins above 2× noise)5.0e-63.8e-62.5e-61.3e-60.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 1.11e-8 · 0.1% energyperiod 24.0 · power 1.11e-8 · 0.1% energyperiod 12.0 · power 6.47e-7 · 3.2% energyperiod 12.0 · power 6.47e-7 · 3.2% energyperiod 8.0 · power 2.31e-6 · 11.4% energyperiod 8.0 · power 2.31e-6 · 11.4% energyperiod 6.0 · power 4.76e-6 · 23.6% energyperiod 6.0 · power 4.76e-6 · 23.6% energyperiod 4.8 · power 5.79e-7 · 2.9% energyperiod 4.8 · power 5.79e-7 · 2.9% energyperiod 4.0 · power 3.02e-7 · 1.5% energyperiod 4.0 · power 3.02e-7 · 1.5% energyperiod 3.4 · power 5.02e-6 · 24.8% energyperiod 3.4 · power 5.02e-6 · 24.8% energyperiod 3.0 · power 3.41e-6 · 16.9% energyperiod 3.0 · power 3.41e-6 · 16.9% energyperiod 2.7 · power 7.20e-9 · 0.0% energyperiod 2.7 · power 7.20e-9 · 0.0% energyperiod 2.4 · power 3.95e-7 · 2.0% energyperiod 2.4 · power 3.95e-7 · 2.0% energyperiod 2.2 · power 2.77e-6 · 13.7% energyperiod 2.2 · power 2.77e-6 · 13.7% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.04e-8 · 0.1% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.04e-8 · 0.1% energy50% by T=3.4h#1 dominantT=3.43h#2T=6.00h#3T=3.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 3.43h (freq 0.292) · concentrates 24.8% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 2.021e-5

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (371 bars · effective 1753200 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 0.3 d · σ/bar 0.004pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 0.01ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0070 · n = 371✓ n = 371
μ per bar
+0.000pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.004pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
0.02pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move0d
0.01pp
σ × √6
Terminal variancebinary
0.0070
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
0.7¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 0.01pp · ES₉₅ 0.01pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift +0.000pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.05pp · unique ratio 0.01✓ n = 371
VaR 95%
0.01pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
0.01pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
6.7pp
peak 0.8¢ → trough 0.7¢
Median step
0.05pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
0.7%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
142.857
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+14186
$100 wins $14186
FractionalUK
141.86 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$14185.71
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 0.7%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.060 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.060 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
7.16 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.01 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
3452273243305393498870171425386778919579362412133220087776036003706635427296
NO token ID
20504793547680322471450226658366143129180443947573237886456315619455288262899
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 12:47:18 UTC
Snapshot age
6.8s
History points
25 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-14 12:47:25 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
d83f2a2fdac52d626abf0c4e913cacb0b0f0c2581f0f548bdcde051f397d5b1b · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany94.1¢HL PREDSpain90.3¢HL PREDUruguay66.7¢POLYMARKETWill Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?16¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$64,321HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,667.1HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$60.75

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Germany vs. Curaçao - Exact Score

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
0.007000
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
2857.1bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.651
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.092
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-fifwc-ger-kor-2026-06-14-exact-score-2-2/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.01652913612.79bp0.05000020FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.122513165017.98bp0.90000066FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.561477792110.15bp0.96000073FILLED
SELL$1.00K0.0018107414.31bp0.0010006PARTIAL
SELL$10.00K0.0018107414.31bp0.0010006PARTIAL
SELL$100.00K0.0018107414.31bp0.0010006PARTIAL

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 371 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75M
Realized vol (annualised)
672.55%
σ per bar = 0.005079
Mean return (annualised)
-0.00%
μ per bar = -0.000000
Sharpe (rf=0)
-0.00
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
6.67%
peak 0.01 → trough 0.01 over 299 bars

/api/asset/pm-fifwc-ger-kor-2026-06-14-exact-score-2-2/risk · same metrics, JSON