POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · GERMANY VS. CURAÇAO - EXACT SCORE

Exact Score: Germany 3 - 2 Curaçao?

YES · live
0.8¢
NO · live
99.2¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · fifwc-ger-kor-2026-06-14-exact-score-3-2 · fresh · feed 0s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
9.41%
max drawdown
31.82%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
20.67%
RMS drawdown
pain index
17.05%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
31.82%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.14
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.14
upside/downside
roll spread
11.1 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
593
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-fifwc-ger-kor-2026-06-14-exact-score-3-2/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH11ms⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
0.8¢
NO · live
99.2¢
YES price · live 24h
n=25 · μ=0.0143 · σ=0.0090 · range [0.0070, 0.0350] · R²=0.453▼ FALLING -48.39%σ EXTREME 62.94%LAST 0.00800.03500.02800.02100.01400.0070μ = 0.0143max 0.0350min 0.0070dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.45μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 ticks · last 0.80¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 0.8%NO 99.2%NO99.2%99.20¢ · odds 1/1.01
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.067 / 1.00 bits (7%) · informative — one side favoured
YES
0.8%0.8¢125.00×▬ +0.00pp
NO
99.2%99.2¢1.01×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=24 · Σ=795 · μ=33.1 · σ=46.2 · CV=1.39BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=604488131175μ = 3317550%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 795bp moved · peak 175bp · n=24 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
11ms
▲YES mid
0.80¢ (0.80%)
▼NO mid
99.20¢ (99.20%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$42.7k
≋liquidity $
$39.8k
◳history points
25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.0143 · σ=0.0090 · range [0.0070, 0.0350] · R²=0.453▼ FALLING -48.39%σ EXTREME 62.94%LAST 0.00800.03500.02800.02100.01400.0070μ = 0.0143max 0.0350min 0.0070dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.45μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 0.80¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.9857 · σ=0.0090 · range [0.9650, 0.9930] · R²=0.453▲ RISING +0.76%σ LOW 0.91%LAST 0.99200.99300.98600.97900.97200.9650μ = 0.9857max 0.9930min 0.9650dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.45μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 99.20¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=24 · 10 bins · μ=-0.0004 · σ=0.0054 · skew=0.27 (symmetric) · kurt=2.83 (leptokurtic (fat tails))1085301-1.48ppbin -1.48pp · n=1 · 10.0% peakbin -1.48pp · n=1 · 10.0% peak-1.14pp1-0.80ppbin -0.80pp · n=1 · 10.0% peakbin -0.80pp · n=1 · 10.0% peak3-0.46ppbin -0.46pp · n=3 · 30.0% peakbin -0.46pp · n=3 · 30.0% peak10-0.12ppbin -0.12pp · n=10 · 100.0% peakbin -0.12pp · n=10 · 100.0% peak60.22ppbin 0.22pp · n=6 · 60.0% peakbin 0.22pp · n=6 · 60.0% peak20.56ppbin 0.56pp · n=2 · 20.0% peakbin 0.56pp · n=2 · 20.0% peak0.90pp1.24pp11.58ppbin 1.58pp · n=1 · 10.0% peakbin 1.58pp · n=1 · 10.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=0.33 · kurt=4.40 · near 8 / mid 15 / far 1 · OLS slope=0.92 intercept=-0.00LEPTOKURTIC — FAT TAILSUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25STRONGLY RIGHT-SKEWED (G₁=1.37)
μ MEAN1.43¢95% CI: [1.07¢, 1.78¢]
σ STD DEV0.90ppσ² = 0.805 · CV = 62.94%
med MEDIAN1.05¢Q₁ 0.80¢ · Q₃ 1.55¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 2.80pp · IQR 0.75pp (1.349σ→1.21pp)
min 0.70¢Q₁ 0.80¢med 1.05¢Q₃ 1.55¢max 3.50¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁1.373right-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂0.447mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.42
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 1.61
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.12
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit root
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.084within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.006lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.677persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-4.368significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]persistent · H = 0.677
H = 0.677PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..51 SIGNIFICANT LAG · k=4
k=1-0.084k=2-0.006k=3+0.261k=4 ★-0.435k=5-0.1520+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=4.37)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit rootfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.44high · clear structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=4.37)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID2322409
SLUGfifwc-ger-kor-2026-06-14-exact-score-3-2
CATEGORYGermany vs. Curaçao - Exact Score
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS NO (99¢)
PRIMARY · YES0.80¢implied prob 0.80% · decimal odds 125.00×
COUNTER · NO99.20¢implied prob 99.20% · decimal odds 1.01×
0.80¢
99.20¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYACTIVE
24H VOLUME42.75k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY39.84k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS NO (99¢)|primary − counter| = 0.984 · entropy 0.067 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHACTIVE100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 0.8%NO 99.2%YES p̂0.8%H = 0.067 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES125.00×(1¢)NO1.01×(99¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.067 bits (7% of max) · informative — one side strongly favoured
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§8 · Time decay & θ projection

Time decay & theta projection
⏱ URGENCY · VERY HIGHresolves 2026-06-14 17:00 UTC
0days
01hrs
29min
1.5 hours·θ = 4.397 pp/day
YES →$1.00(P = 0.8%)
NO →$0.00(P = 99.2%)
current: $0.0080 · expected return per side: $0.99 on YES hit · $0.01 on NO hit
0%25%50%75%100%YES $1NO $0NOW+0.7hRESOLVESP projection · σ=0.90% · path funnel to settle at YES=1 or NO=0
Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 4.397 pp/day
now1.48h left
4.397 pp/day×1.00
−25%1.11h left
5.077 pp/day×1.15
−50%0.74h left
6.218 pp/day×1.41
−75%0.37h left
8.793 pp/day×2.00
−90%0.15h left
13.903 pp/day×3.16
θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 1.75% · worst -1.65% · typical |Δ| 0.33%BEARISH SESSION -0.75%BEST+1.75%2hWORST-1.65%6hTYPICAL |Δ|0.33%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-0.75%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↗ 1up-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +0.01% · Σ +0.05%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.11% · Σ -0.90%US · 16-24 UTCμ +0.01% · Σ +0.05%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -0.75%+1.95%-0.85%0.00% · 1h0.00% · 1h·1h1.75% · 2h1.75% · 2h1.75%2h★ BEST-0.40% · 3h-0.40% · 3h-0.40%3h0.60% · 4h0.60% · 4h0.60%4h0.00% · 5h0.00% · 5h·5h-1.65% · 6h-1.65% · 6h-1.65%6h▼ WORST-0.25% · 7h-0.25% · 7h-0.25%7h-0.10% · 8h-0.10% · 8h-0.10%8h-0.70% · 9h-0.70% · 9h-0.70%9h0.00% · 10h0.00% · 10h·10h0.05% · 11h0.05% · 11h0.05%11h-0.10% · 12h-0.10% · 12h-0.10%12h0.40% · 13h0.40% · 13h0.40%13h-0.05% · 14h-0.05% · 14h-0.05%14h-0.40% · 15h-0.40% · 15h-0.40%15h0.25% · 16h0.25% · 16h0.25%16h0.05% · 17h0.05% · 17h0.05%17h-0.30% · 18h-0.30% · 18h-0.30%18h0.30% · 19h0.30% · 19h0.30%19h0.15% · 20h0.15% · 20h0.15%20h-0.10% · 21h-0.10% · 21h-0.10%21h-0.20% · 22h-0.20% · 22h-0.20%22h-0.10% · 23h-0.10% · 23h-0.10%23h0.05% · 24h0.05% · 24h0.05%24hTIME PATTERNAsia-led (+0.05%)RUNSup max 2 · down max 4BREADTH38% up · 50% down · 13% flat
9 up bars · 12 down · best 1.75% · worst -1.65% · typical |Δ| 0.331%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS WITH MODERATE DD (-0.78%)FINAL-0.78%MAX DD-2.78%RECOVERYONGOING · 19 barsMAX RUN-UP+1.95%UNDERWATER20/25 (80%)STREAK↗ 1EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9922 · peak 1.0195 · range [0.9912, 1.0195]1.01950.9912break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0195UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -2.78% · moderate0%-2.78%▼ TROUGH -2.78%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 2 total#1 -2.78%bar 7-25 · 19 bars · ONGOING#2 -0.40%bar 4-4 · 1 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -2.78%)RECOVERYongoing · 19 barsTIME UNDER WATER80% of session · 20/25 bars
final equity 0.9922 (-0.78%) · max DD -2.78% · time-under-water 20/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +7 / −12 (37% positive) · μ=-15.47 · σ=26.82MIXED EDGELAST 8.38 (+0.89σ vs μ)65.4632.730.00-32.73-65.46μ = -15.474.174.170.690.69-37.69-37.69-42.94-42.94-65.46-65.46-63.53-63.53-62.80-62.80-19.64-19.64-17.46-17.46-6.04-6.048.348.348.348.34-2.52-2.52-8.23-8.232.672.6724.0824.08-6.93-6.93-17.37-17.378.388.38v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 8.378 · range [-65.46, 24.08] · μ -15.471 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=42.4004 · σ=27.9874 · range [17.4264, 105.6178] · R²=0.728▼ FALLING -83.40%σ EXTREME 66.01%LAST 17.4264105.617883.570061.522139.474317.4264μ = 42.4004max 105.6178min 17.4264dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.73μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 17.43% · range [17.43%, 105.62%] · μ 42.40% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +1 / −18 (5% positive) · μ=-0.176 · σ=0.191MEAN-REVERSIONLAST 0.397 (+3.00σ vs μ)0.4540.2270.000-0.227-0.454μ = -0.176-0.165-0.165-0.081-0.081-0.102-0.102-0.108-0.108-0.440-0.440-0.071-0.071-0.217-0.217-0.058-0.058-0.072-0.072-0.121-0.121-0.360-0.360-0.338-0.338-0.218-0.218-0.454-0.454-0.351-0.351-0.302-0.302-0.215-0.215-0.061-0.0610.3970.397v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 0.397 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
2 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence2 reject·4 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀***

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
33.8722
p-VALUE (log scale)
< 0.0001
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
8.8751
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1130
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.4671
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5490
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
0.7845
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4328
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (13 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.5394
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0328
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-0.6584
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5103
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.800 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=3.17e-5 · top T=3.00h (28.0%) · top-3 cover 56.1%1 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEcumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)1.1e-48.0e-55.3e-52.7e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 2.18e-5 · 5.7% energyperiod 24.0 · power 2.18e-5 · 5.7% energyperiod 12.0 · power 5.17e-5 · 13.6% energyperiod 12.0 · power 5.17e-5 · 13.6% energyperiod 8.0 · power 5.28e-5 · 13.9% energyperiod 8.0 · power 5.28e-5 · 13.9% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.54e-5 · 4.0% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.54e-5 · 4.0% energyperiod 4.8 · power 5.03e-6 · 1.3% energyperiod 4.8 · power 5.03e-6 · 1.3% energyperiod 4.0 · power 7.89e-6 · 2.1% energyperiod 4.0 · power 7.89e-6 · 2.1% energyperiod 3.4 · power 3.92e-6 · 1.0% energyperiod 3.4 · power 3.92e-6 · 1.0% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.07e-4 · 28.0% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.07e-4 · 28.0% energyperiod 2.7 · power 5.40e-5 · 14.2% energyperiod 2.7 · power 5.40e-5 · 14.2% energyperiod 2.4 · power 3.50e-5 · 9.2% energyperiod 2.4 · power 3.50e-5 · 9.2% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.64e-5 · 4.3% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.64e-5 · 4.3% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.00e-5 · 2.6% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.00e-5 · 2.6% energy50% by T=3.0h#1 dominantT=3.00h#2T=2.67h#3T=8.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 3.00h (freq 0.333) · concentrates 28.0% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 3.805e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (593 bars · effective 1753005 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 0.3 d · σ/bar 0.007pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 0.02ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0079 · n = 593✓ n = 593
μ per bar
-0.001pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.007pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
0.03pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move0d
0.02pp
σ × √6
Terminal variancebinary
0.0079
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
0.8¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 0.01pp · ES₉₅ 0.02pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift -0.001pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.05pp · unique ratio 0.01✓ n = 593
VaR 95%
0.01pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
0.02pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
31.8pp
peak 1.1¢ → trough 0.8¢
Median step
0.05pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
0.8%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
125.000
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+12400
$100 wins $12400
FractionalUK
124.00 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$12400.00
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 0.8%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.067 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.067 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
6.97 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.01 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
96617618042152100390586216231381006681158456282678816775122449288663535975609
NO token ID
89047808620719774797877597833364544583386831655206875914706114820269294613612
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 15:30:58 UTC
Snapshot age
11ms
History points
25 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-14 15:30:58 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
2f08059841bfced1577b0a0953bc4dec7ecaae311d6f35d608724a35b23934d4 · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany94.3¢HL PREDSpain89.6¢HL PREDUruguay66.7¢POLYMARKETWill Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?1¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$64,010.5HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,662.15HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$60.52

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Germany vs. Curaçao - Exact Score

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
0.008000
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
2500.0bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.981
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.418
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-fifwc-ger-kor-2026-06-14-exact-score-3-2/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.04111041387.50bp0.10400031FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.228699275874.01bp0.90000059FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.710082877601.89bp0.96000067FILLED
SELL$1.00K0.0055893013.26bp0.0010006PARTIAL
SELL$10.00K0.0055893013.26bp0.0010006PARTIAL
SELL$100.00K0.0055893013.26bp0.0010006PARTIAL

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 593 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75M
Realized vol (annualised)
1038.89%
σ per bar = 0.007847
Mean return (annualised)
-94299.16%
μ per bar = -0.000538
Sharpe (rf=0)
-90.77
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
31.82%
peak 0.01 → trough 0.01 over 461 bars

/api/asset/pm-fifwc-ger-kor-2026-06-14-exact-score-3-2/risk · same metrics, JSON