POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · GERMANY VS. CURAÇAO - EXACT SCORE

Exact Score: Germany 3 - 3 Curaçao?

YES · live
0.2¢
NO · live
99.8¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · fifwc-ger-kor-2026-06-14-exact-score-3-3 · fresh · feed 0s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
5.77%
max drawdown
25.00%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
9.78%
RMS drawdown
pain index
3.83%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
25.00%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
1.00
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.00
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
529
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-fifwc-ger-kor-2026-06-14-exact-score-3-3/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH12ms⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
0.2¢
NO · live
99.8¢
YES price · live 24h
n=25 · μ=0.0058 · σ=0.0055 · range [0.0015, 0.0140] · R²=0.695▼ FALLING -85.71%σ EXTREME 94.49%LAST 0.00200.01400.01090.00770.00460.0015μ = 0.0058max 0.0140min 0.0015dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.69μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 ticks · last 0.20¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 0.2%NO 99.8%NO99.8%99.80¢ · odds 1/1.00
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.021 / 1.00 bits (2%) · informative — one side favoured
YES
0.2%0.2¢500.00×▬ +0.00pp
NO
99.8%99.8¢1.00×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=24 · Σ=140 · μ=5.8 · σ=19.2 · CV=3.29BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=8024487195μ = 69550%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 140bp moved · peak 95bp · n=24 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
12ms
▲YES mid
0.20¢ (0.20%)
▼NO mid
99.80¢ (99.80%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$56.1k
≋liquidity $
$63.3k
◳history points
25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.0058 · σ=0.0055 · range [0.0015, 0.0140] · R²=0.695▼ FALLING -85.71%σ EXTREME 94.49%LAST 0.00200.01400.01090.00770.00460.0015μ = 0.0058max 0.0140min 0.0015dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.69μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 0.20¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.9943 · σ=0.0053 · range [0.9860, 0.9985] · R²=0.692▲ RISING +1.22%σ LOW 0.54%LAST 0.99800.99850.99540.99230.98910.9860μ = 0.9943max 0.9985min 0.9860dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.69μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 99.80¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=24 · 10 bins · μ=-0.0006 · σ=0.0018 · skew=-4.23 (left-skewed) · kurt=16.89 (leptokurtic (fat tails))18149501-0.90ppbin -0.90pp · n=1 · 5.6% peakbin -0.90pp · n=1 · 5.6% peak-0.80pp-0.70pp-0.60pp-0.50pp-0.40pp-0.30pp-0.20pp5-0.10ppbin -0.10pp · n=5 · 27.8% peakbin -0.10pp · n=5 · 27.8% peak180.00ppbin 0.00pp · n=18 · 100.0% peakbin 0.00pp · n=18 · 100.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-4.38 · kurt=17.81 · near 5 / mid 13 / far 6 · OLS slope=0.58 intercept=-0.00LEPTOKURTIC — FAT TAILSTHIN UPPER TAILLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σΔ=-2.69σΔ=-1.51σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25RIGHT-SKEWED (G₁=0.72)
μ MEAN0.58¢95% CI: [0.37¢, 0.80¢]
σ STD DEV0.55ppσ² = 0.305 · CV = 94.49%
med MEDIAN0.25¢Q₁ 0.20¢ · Q₃ 1.30¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 1.25pp · IQR 1.10pp (1.349σ→0.74pp)
min 0.15¢Q₁ 0.20¢med 0.25¢Q₃ 1.30¢max 1.40¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.720right-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-1.505platykurtic · thin tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.61
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 0.68
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 2.27
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: INDETERMINATE · weak signal at n=24
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.011within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.037lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.682persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-7.236significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]persistent · H = 0.682
H = 0.682PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.011k=2+0.037k=3-0.020k=4-0.023k=5-0.0780+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=7.24)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONINDETERMINATE · weak signal at n=24from Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.38high · clear structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=7.24)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID2322412
SLUGfifwc-ger-kor-2026-06-14-exact-score-3-3
CATEGORYGermany vs. Curaçao - Exact Score
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS NO (100¢)
PRIMARY · YES0.20¢implied prob 0.20% · decimal odds 500.00×
COUNTER · NO99.80¢implied prob 99.80% · decimal odds 1.00×
0.20¢
99.80¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYACTIVE
24H VOLUME56.11k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY63.28k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS NO (100¢)|primary − counter| = 0.996 · entropy 0.021 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHACTIVE100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 0.2%NO 99.8%YES p̂0.2%H = 0.021 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES500.00×(0¢)NO1.00×(100¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.021 bits (2% of max) · informative — one side strongly favoured
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§8 · Time decay & θ projection

Time decay & theta projection
⏱ URGENCY · CRITICALresolves 2026-06-14 17:00 UTC
0days
00hrs
09min
9 minutes·θ = 2.703 pp/day
YES →$1.00(P = 0.2%)
NO →$0.00(P = 99.8%)
current: $0.0020 · expected return per side: $1.00 on YES hit · $0.00 on NO hit
0%25%50%75%100%YES $1NO $0NOW+0.1hRESOLVESP projection · σ=0.55% · path funnel to settle at YES=1 or NO=0
Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 2.703 pp/day
now0.15h left
2.703 pp/day×1.00
−25%0.11h left
3.122 pp/day×1.15
−50%0.08h left
3.823 pp/day×1.41
−75%0.04h left
5.407 pp/day×2.00
−90%0.02h left
8.549 pp/day×3.16
θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 0.05% · worst -0.95% · typical |Δ| 0.06%BEARISH SESSION -1.20%BEST+0.05%17hWORST-0.95%8hTYPICAL |Δ|0.06%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-1.20%Σ signed ΔSTREAK▬ 0flat-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.02% · Σ -0.15%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.14% · Σ -1.10%US · 16-24 UTCμ +0.01% · Σ +0.05%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -1.20%+0.00%-1.25%0.00% · 1h0.00% · 1h·1h0.00% · 2h0.00% · 2h·2h0.00% · 3h0.00% · 3h·3h0.00% · 4h0.00% · 4h·4h0.00% · 5h0.00% · 5h·5h-0.10% · 6h-0.10% · 6h-0.10%6h-0.05% · 7h-0.05% · 7h-0.05%7h-0.95% · 8h-0.95% · 8h-0.95%8h▼ WORST0.00% · 9h0.00% · 9h·9h0.00% · 10h0.00% · 10h·10h-0.05% · 11h-0.05% · 11h-0.05%11h-0.05% · 12h-0.05% · 12h-0.05%12h0.00% · 13h0.00% · 13h·13h-0.05% · 14h-0.05% · 14h-0.05%14h0.00% · 15h0.00% · 15h·15h0.00% · 16h0.00% · 16h·16h0.05% · 17h0.05% · 17h0.05%17h★ BEST0.00% · 18h0.00% · 18h·18h0.00% · 19h0.00% · 19h·19h0.05% · 20h0.05% · 20h0.05%20h-0.05% · 21h-0.05% · 21h-0.05%21h0.00% · 22h0.00% · 22h·22h0.00% · 23h0.00% · 23h·23h0.00% · 24h0.00% · 24h·24hTIME PATTERNUS-led (+0.05%)RUNSup max 1 · down max 3BREADTH8% up · 29% down · 63% flat
2 up bars · 7 down · best 0.05% · worst -0.95% · typical |Δ| 0.058%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS · SHALLOW DD (-1.20%)FINAL-1.20%MAX DD-1.25%RECOVERYONGOING · 19 barsMAX RUN-UP+0.00%UNDERWATER19/25 (76%)STREAK▬ 0EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9880 · peak 1.0000 · range [0.9875, 1.0000]1.00000.9875break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0000UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -1.25% · moderate0%-1.25%▼ TROUGH -1.25%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 1 total#1 -1.25%bar 7-25 · 19 bars · ONGOINGDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -1.25%)RECOVERYongoing · 19 barsTIME UNDER WATER76% of session · 19/25 bars
final equity 0.9880 (-1.20%) · max DD -1.25% · time-under-water 19/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +3 / −12 (16% positive) · μ=-28.54 · σ=39.71UNPROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST 0.00 (+0.72σ vs μ)85.4442.720.00-42.72-85.44μ = -28.54-38.21-38.21-55.93-55.93-45.43-45.43-45.43-45.43-45.43-45.43-48.04-48.04-45.59-45.59-43.05-43.05-85.44-85.44-85.44-85.44-85.44-85.44-20.72-20.720.000.000.000.0060.4260.4220.7220.7220.7220.720.000.000.000.00v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 0.000 · range [-85.44, 60.42] · μ -28.542 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=13.2679 · σ=15.3887 · range [2.4166, 35.6091] · R²=0.321▼ FALLING -22.54%σ EXTREME 115.98%LAST 2.959735.609127.311019.012910.71472.4166μ = 13.2679max 35.6091min 2.4166dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.32μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 2.96% · range [2.42%, 35.61%] · μ 13.27% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +1 / −16 (5% positive) · μ=-0.209 · σ=0.205MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.500 (-1.42σ vs μ)0.5000.2500.000-0.250-0.500μ = -0.209-0.033-0.0330.2140.214-0.012-0.012-0.256-0.256-0.256-0.256-0.252-0.252-0.236-0.236-0.063-0.063-0.167-0.167-0.500-0.500-0.167-0.167-0.069-0.0690.0000.0000.0000.000-0.333-0.333-0.480-0.480-0.363-0.363-0.500-0.500-0.500-0.500v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.500 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
2 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence2 reject·4 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀***

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
592.3086
p-VALUE (log scale)
< 0.0001
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
0.2694
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.9969
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.3817
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5897
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
-1.2263
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2201
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (3 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.7205
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0117
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
0.3073
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7586
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 1.094 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=3.80e-6 · top T=24.00h (12.8%) · top-3 cover 32.3%WHITE NOISE · no dominant cyclecumulative energy ↗ (0 bins above 2× noise)5.8e-64.4e-62.9e-61.5e-60.0e+0μ noise floorperiod 24.0 · power 5.83e-6 · 12.8% energyperiod 24.0 · power 5.83e-6 · 12.8% energyperiod 12.0 · power 3.87e-6 · 8.5% energyperiod 12.0 · power 3.87e-6 · 8.5% energyperiod 8.0 · power 3.42e-6 · 7.5% energyperiod 8.0 · power 3.42e-6 · 7.5% energyperiod 6.0 · power 3.64e-6 · 8.0% energyperiod 6.0 · power 3.64e-6 · 8.0% energyperiod 4.8 · power 3.22e-6 · 7.1% energyperiod 4.8 · power 3.22e-6 · 7.1% energyperiod 4.0 · power 2.71e-6 · 5.9% energyperiod 4.0 · power 2.71e-6 · 5.9% energyperiod 3.4 · power 4.25e-6 · 9.3% energyperiod 3.4 · power 4.25e-6 · 9.3% energyperiod 3.0 · power 2.91e-6 · 6.4% energyperiod 3.0 · power 2.91e-6 · 6.4% energyperiod 2.7 · power 4.37e-6 · 9.6% energyperiod 2.7 · power 4.37e-6 · 9.6% energyperiod 2.4 · power 2.68e-6 · 5.9% energyperiod 2.4 · power 2.68e-6 · 5.9% energyperiod 2.2 · power 4.53e-6 · 9.9% energyperiod 2.2 · power 4.53e-6 · 9.9% energyperiod 2.0 · power 4.17e-6 · 9.1% energyperiod 2.0 · power 4.17e-6 · 9.1% energy50% by T=3.4h#1 dominantT=24.00h#2T=2.18h#3T=2.67hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 24.00h (freq 0.042) · concentrates 12.8% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 4.558e-5

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (529 bars · effective 1753103 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 0.3 d · σ/bar 0.004pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 0.01ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0020 · n = 529✓ n = 529
μ per bar
+0.000pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.004pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
0.02pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move0d
0.01pp
σ × √6
Terminal variancebinary
0.0020
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
0.2¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 0.01pp · ES₉₅ 0.01pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift +0.000pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.05pp · unique ratio 0.00✓ n = 529
VaR 95%
0.01pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
0.01pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
25.0pp
peak 0.2¢ → trough 0.1¢
Median step
0.05pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
0.2%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
500.000
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+49900
$100 wins $49900
FractionalUK
499.00 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$49900.00
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 0.2%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.021 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.021 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
8.97 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.00 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
45188480795163436490027349969460348606312338725332680189194154407233005866773
NO token ID
53541491292784222893704334579383052257764988609742039497185007912765310054581
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 16:50:55 UTC
Snapshot age
12ms
History points
25 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-14 16:50:55 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
10477e101b02a1eaae5ee4030726076b747c740b82fa494994c09022f0bf5b4b · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany94.0¢HL PREDSpain89.6¢HL PREDUruguay66.9¢POLYMARKETWill Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?21¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$63,995.5HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,662.85HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$60

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Germany vs. Curaçao - Exact Score

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
0.002000
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
10000.0bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.705
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.867
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-fifwc-ger-kor-2026-06-14-exact-score-3-3/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.033444157219.09bp0.07000020FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.173947859736.05bp0.90000052FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.6557543268768.27bp0.97000057FILLED
SELL$1.00K0.0010005000.00bp0.0010001PARTIAL
SELL$10.00K0.0010005000.00bp0.0010001PARTIAL
SELL$100.00K0.0010005000.00bp0.0010001PARTIAL

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 529 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75M
Realized vol (annualised)
3318.49%
σ per bar = 0.025063
Mean return (annualised)
-0.00%
μ per bar = -0.000000
Sharpe (rf=0)
-0.00
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
25.00%
peak 0.00 → trough 0.00 over 314 bars

/api/asset/pm-fifwc-ger-kor-2026-06-14-exact-score-3-3/risk · same metrics, JSON