POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · GERMANY VS. CURAÇAO - EXACT SCORE

Exact Score: Any Other Score?

YES · live
58.5¢
NO · live
41.5¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · fifwc-ger-kor-2026-06-14-exact-score-any-other · fresh · feed 0s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
62.76%
max drawdown
0.87%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
0.29%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.10%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
0.87%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
2.00
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
2.00
upside/downside
roll spread
0.4 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
891
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-fifwc-ger-kor-2026-06-14-exact-score-any-other/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH6ms⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
58.5¢
NO · live
41.5¢
YES price · live 24h
n=25 · μ=0.5856 · σ=0.0146 · range [0.5550, 0.6250] · R²=0.387▼ FALLING -1.68%σ NORMAL 2.49%LAST 0.58500.62500.60750.59000.57250.5550μ = 0.5856max 0.6250min 0.5550dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.39μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 ticks · last 58.50¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 58.5%NO 41.5%YES58.5%58.50¢ · odds 1/1.71
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.979 / 1.00 bits (98%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
YES
58.5%58.5¢1.71×▬ +0.00pp
NO
41.5%41.5¢2.41×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=24 · Σ=2,300 · μ=95.8 · σ=108.3 · CV=1.13BURSTYcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=9088175263350μ = 9635050%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 2300bp moved · peak 350bp · n=24 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
6ms
▲YES mid
58.50¢ (58.50%)
▼NO mid
41.50¢ (41.50%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$40.7k
≋liquidity $
$38.5k
◳history points
25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.5856 · σ=0.0146 · range [0.5550, 0.6250] · R²=0.387▼ FALLING -1.68%σ NORMAL 2.49%LAST 0.58500.62500.60750.59000.57250.5550μ = 0.5856max 0.6250min 0.5550dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.39μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 58.50¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.4144 · σ=0.0146 · range [0.3750, 0.4450] · R²=0.387▲ RISING +2.47%σ NORMAL 3.52%LAST 0.41500.44500.42750.41000.39250.3750μ = 0.4144max 0.4450min 0.3750dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.39μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 41.50¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=24 · 10 bins · μ=0.0003 · σ=0.0136 · skew=-0.37 (symmetric) · kurt=1.07 (leptokurtic (fat tails))1085302-3.15ppbin -3.15pp · n=2 · 20.0% peakbin -3.15pp · n=2 · 20.0% peak-2.45pp-1.75pp3-1.05ppbin -1.05pp · n=3 · 30.0% peakbin -1.05pp · n=3 · 30.0% peak5-0.35ppbin -0.35pp · n=5 · 50.0% peakbin -0.35pp · n=5 · 50.0% peak100.35ppbin 0.35pp · n=10 · 100.0% peakbin 0.35pp · n=10 · 100.0% peak1.05pp31.75ppbin 1.75pp · n=3 · 30.0% peakbin 1.75pp · n=3 · 30.0% peak2.45pp13.15ppbin 3.15pp · n=1 · 10.0% peakbin 3.15pp · n=1 · 10.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-0.07 · kurt=1.21 · near 15 / mid 9 / far 0 · OLS slope=0.98 intercept=-0.00APPROXIMATELY NORMALUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25APPROXIMATELY NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVED
μ MEAN58.56¢95% CI: [57.99¢, 59.13¢]
σ STD DEV1.46ppσ² = 2.132 · CV = 2.49%
med MEDIAN58.50¢Q₁ 57.50¢ · Q₃ 59.50¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 7.00pp · IQR 2.00pp (1.349σ→1.97pp)
min 55.50¢Q₁ 57.50¢med 58.50¢Q₃ 59.50¢max 62.50¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.455approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂0.442mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ median≈ equal · symmetric|μ−med| / σ = 0.04
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 0.98
range ↔ σwide tails (range > 4σ)range / σ = 4.79
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.51 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.506negative · reversal
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.105lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.784strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-3.813significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.784
H = 0.784STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..51 SIGNIFICANT LAG · k=1
k=1 ★-0.506k=2+0.105k=3+0.105k=4-0.324k=5+0.3160+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=3.81)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.51 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=3.81)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID2322414
SLUGfifwc-ger-kor-2026-06-14-exact-score-any-other
CATEGORYGermany vs. Curaçao - Exact Score
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS YES (59¢)
PRIMARY · YES58.50¢implied prob 58.50% · decimal odds 1.71×
COUNTER · NO41.50¢implied prob 41.50% · decimal odds 2.41×
58.50¢
41.50¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYACTIVE
24H VOLUME40.67k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY38.49k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS YES (59¢)|primary − counter| = 0.170 · entropy 0.979 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHACTIVE100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 58.5%NO 41.5%YES p̂58.5%H = 0.979 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES1.71×(59¢)NO2.41×(42¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.979 bits (98% of max) · maximum uncertainty (~50/50)
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§8 · Time decay & θ projection

Time decay & theta projection
⏱ URGENCY · VERY HIGHresolves 2026-06-14 17:00 UTC
0days
01hrs
27min
1.5 hours·θ = 7.153 pp/day
YES →$1.00(P = 58.5%)
NO →$0.00(P = 41.5%)
current: $0.5850 · expected return per side: $0.42 on YES hit · $0.58 on NO hit
0%25%50%75%100%YES $1NO $0NOW+0.7hRESOLVESP projection · σ=1.46% · path funnel to settle at YES=1 or NO=0
Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 7.153 pp/day
now1.46h left
7.153 pp/day×1.00
−25%1.09h left
8.259 pp/day×1.15
−50%0.73h left
10.115 pp/day×1.41
−75%0.36h left
14.305 pp/day×2.00
−90%0.15h left
22.619 pp/day×3.16
θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 3.50% · worst -3.50% · typical |Δ| 0.96%BEARISH SESSION -1.00%BEST+3.50%9hWORST-3.50%10hTYPICAL |Δ|0.96%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-1.00%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↗ 2up-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.07% · Σ -0.50%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.19% · Σ -1.50%US · 16-24 UTCμ +0.06% · Σ +0.50%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -1.00%+3.00%-4.00%-0.50% · 1h-0.50% · 1h-0.50%1h1.50% · 2h1.50% · 2h1.50%2h-0.50% · 3h-0.50% · 3h-0.50%3h0.50% · 4h0.50% · 4h0.50%4h-3.00% · 5h-3.00% · 5h-3.00%5h2.00% · 6h2.00% · 6h2.00%6h-0.50% · 7h-0.50% · 7h-0.50%7h0.00% · 8h0.00% · 8h·8h3.50% · 9h3.50% · 9h3.50%9h★ BEST-3.50% · 10h-3.50% · 10h-3.50%10h▼ WORST0.50% · 11h0.50% · 11h0.50%11h-0.50% · 12h-0.50% · 12h-0.50%12h-1.00% · 13h-1.00% · 13h-1.00%13h0.00% · 14h0.00% · 14h·14h-0.50% · 15h-0.50% · 15h-0.50%15h0.00% · 16h0.00% · 16h·16h-1.00% · 17h-1.00% · 17h-1.00%17h-1.00% · 18h-1.00% · 18h-1.00%18h2.00% · 19h2.00% · 19h2.00%19h0.00% · 20h0.00% · 20h·20h0.00% · 21h0.00% · 21h·21h0.00% · 22h0.00% · 22h·22h0.50% · 23h0.50% · 23h0.50%23h0.50% · 24h0.50% · 24h0.50%24hTIME PATTERNUS-led (+0.50%)RUNSup max 2 · down max 2BREADTH33% up · 42% down · 25% flat
8 up bars · 10 down · best 3.50% · worst -3.50% · typical |Δ| 0.958%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS WITH MODERATE DD (-1.24%)FINAL-1.24%MAX DD-6.84%RECOVERYONGOING · 15 barsMAX RUN-UP+2.90%UNDERWATER22/25 (88%)STREAK↗ 2EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9876 · peak 1.0290 · range [0.9586, 1.0290]1.02900.9586break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0290UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -6.84% · significant0%-6.84%▼ TROUGH -6.84%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 3 total#1 -6.84%bar 11-25 · 15 bars · ONGOING#2 -3.00%bar 4-9 · 6 bars · recovered#3 -0.50%bar 2-2 · 1 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYsignificant (max -6.84%)RECOVERYongoing · 15 barsTIME UNDER WATER88% of session · 22/25 bars
final equity 0.9876 (-1.24%) · max DD -6.84% · time-under-water 22/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +4 / −11 (21% positive) · μ=-13.43 · σ=40.90UNPROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST 60.42 (+1.81σ vs μ)111.0655.530.00-55.53-111.06μ = -13.430.000.000.000.00-14.31-14.3117.5417.54-8.56-8.5613.1113.11-3.47-3.47-6.86-6.86-6.86-6.86-55.62-55.62-44.62-44.62-104.64-104.64-111.06-111.06-7.00-7.00-7.00-7.000.000.000.000.0023.7023.7060.4260.42v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 60.415 · range [-111.06, 60.42] · μ -13.434 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=139.8469 · σ=67.1180 · range [41.8569, 255.8926] · R²=0.472▼ FALLING -56.70%σ EXTREME 47.99%LAST 72.4983255.8926202.3836148.874795.365841.8569μ = 139.8469max 255.8926min 41.8569dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.47μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 72.50% · range [41.86%, 255.89%] · μ 139.85% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +0 / −19 (0% positive) · μ=-0.387 · σ=0.192MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.083 (+1.58σ vs μ)0.6780.3390.000-0.339-0.678μ = -0.387-0.578-0.578-0.594-0.594-0.678-0.678-0.326-0.326-0.483-0.483-0.527-0.527-0.564-0.564-0.533-0.533-0.562-0.562-0.308-0.308-0.227-0.227-0.500-0.500-0.178-0.178-0.196-0.196-0.162-0.162-0.167-0.167-0.167-0.167-0.526-0.526-0.083-0.083v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.083 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
2 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence2 reject·4 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
3.2772
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1943
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
14.1673
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0146
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zoneserial dependence detected
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-2.6958
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0783
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
1.0395
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2986
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (12 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.5819
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0243
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.9418
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0522
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.409 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=2.04e-4 · top T=2.40h (32.6%) · top-3 cover 66.3%2 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)8.0e-46.0e-44.0e-42.0e-40.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 5.96e-5 · 2.4% energyperiod 24.0 · power 5.96e-5 · 2.4% energyperiod 12.0 · power 5.93e-5 · 2.4% energyperiod 12.0 · power 5.93e-5 · 2.4% energyperiod 8.0 · power 4.11e-5 · 1.7% energyperiod 8.0 · power 4.11e-5 · 1.7% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.97e-4 · 8.0% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.97e-4 · 8.0% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.05e-5 · 0.4% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.05e-5 · 0.4% energyperiod 4.0 · power 6.04e-5 · 2.5% energyperiod 4.0 · power 6.04e-5 · 2.5% energyperiod 3.4 · power 2.51e-4 · 10.3% energyperiod 3.4 · power 2.51e-4 · 10.3% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.45e-4 · 5.9% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.45e-4 · 5.9% energyperiod 2.7 · power 5.21e-4 · 21.3% energyperiod 2.7 · power 5.21e-4 · 21.3% energyperiod 2.4 · power 7.99e-4 · 32.6% energyperiod 2.4 · power 7.99e-4 · 32.6% energyperiod 2.2 · power 3.03e-4 · 12.4% energyperiod 2.2 · power 3.03e-4 · 12.4% energyperiod 2.0 · power 2.29e-33 · 0.0% energyperiod 2.0 · power 2.29e-33 · 0.0% energy50% by T=2.7h#1 dominantT=2.40h#2T=2.67h#3T=2.18hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.40h (freq 0.417) · concentrates 32.6% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 2.448e-3

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (891 bars · effective 1753005 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 0.3 d · σ/bar 0.047pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 0.12ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.2428 · n = 891✓ n = 891
μ per bar
+0.001pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.047pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
0.23pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move0d
0.12pp
σ × √6
Terminal variancebinary
0.2428
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
58.5¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 0.08pp · ES₉₅ 0.10pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift +0.001pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.50pp · unique ratio 0.00✓ n = 891
VaR 95%
0.08pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
0.10pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
0.9pp
peak 57.5¢ → trough 57.0¢
Median step
0.50pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
58.5%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
1.709
total return per $1
AmericanUS
-141
risk $141 to win $100
FractionalUK
0.71 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$70.94
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 58.5%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.979 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.979 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
0.77 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
1.27 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
11810840501136210789731149256937155599667876747614470408930593266760934329931
NO token ID
67768770227605239741532032971513935037304519105965688979882539988884251750365
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 15:32:39 UTC
Snapshot age
6ms
History points
25 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-14 15:32:39 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
c2ef04a1edf67f23077002ceca7d0eb61623c2a7c410ccbadeacf18b13ebc837 · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany94.3¢HL PREDSpain89.7¢HL PREDUruguay66.7¢POLYMARKETWill Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?1¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$64,006.5HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,662.15HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$60.48

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Germany vs. Curaçao - Exact Score

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
0.585000
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
170.9bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.675
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.634
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-fifwc-ger-kor-2026-06-14-exact-score-any-other/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.59000085.47bp0.5900001FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.59000085.47bp0.5900001FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.6435931001.59bp0.99000031PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.58000085.47bp0.5800001FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.5091891295.91bp0.01000012PARTIAL
SELL$100.00K0.5091891295.91bp0.01000012PARTIAL

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 891 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75M
Realized vol (annualised)
108.72%
σ per bar = 0.000821
Mean return (annualised)
3396.06%
μ per bar = 0.000019
Sharpe (rf=0)
31.24
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
0.87%
peak 0.57 → trough 0.57 over 41 bars

/api/asset/pm-fifwc-ger-kor-2026-06-14-exact-score-any-other/risk · same metrics, JSON