POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · GERMANY VS. CURAÇAO - MORE MARKETS

Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5

YES · live
63.5¢
NO · live
36.5¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · fifwc-ger-kor-2026-06-14-first-half-total-1pt5 · fresh · feed 0s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
80.29%
max drawdown
1.57%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
0.90%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.52%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
1.57%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
4.00
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
4.00
upside/downside
roll spread
0.7 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
1359
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-fifwc-ger-kor-2026-06-14-first-half-total-1pt5/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH7ms⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
63.5¢
NO · live
36.5¢
YES price · live 24h
n=25 · μ=0.6012 · σ=0.0195 · range [0.5750, 0.6350] · R²=0.925▲ RISING +10.43%σ NORMAL 3.24%LAST 0.63500.63500.62000.60500.59000.5750μ = 0.6012max 0.6350min 0.5750dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.92μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 ticks · last 63.50¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 63.5%NO 36.5%YES63.5%63.50¢ · odds 1/1.57
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.947 / 1.00 bits (95%) · high uncertainty
YES
63.5%63.5¢1.57×▬ +0.00pp
NO
36.5%36.5¢2.74×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=24 · Σ=1,100 · μ=45.8 · σ=69.0 · CV=1.51BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=15063125188250μ = 4625050%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 1100bp moved · peak 250bp · n=24 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
7ms
▲YES mid
63.50¢ (63.50%)
▼NO mid
36.50¢ (36.50%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$44.6k
≋liquidity $
$41.4k
◳history points
25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.6012 · σ=0.0195 · range [0.5750, 0.6350] · R²=0.925▲ RISING +10.43%σ NORMAL 3.24%LAST 0.63500.63500.62000.60500.59000.5750μ = 0.6012max 0.6350min 0.5750dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.92μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 63.50¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.3988 · σ=0.0195 · range [0.3650, 0.4250] · R²=0.925▼ FALLING -14.12%σ NORMAL 4.89%LAST 0.36500.42500.41000.39500.38000.3650μ = 0.3988max 0.4250min 0.3650dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.92μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 36.50¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=24 · 10 bins · μ=0.0018 · σ=0.0075 · skew=1.40 (right-skewed) · kurt=1.55 (leptokurtic (fat tails))14117402-0.83ppbin -0.83pp · n=2 · 14.3% peakbin -0.83pp · n=2 · 14.3% peak1-0.48ppbin -0.48pp · n=1 · 7.1% peakbin -0.48pp · n=1 · 7.1% peak14-0.13ppbin -0.13pp · n=14 · 100.0% peakbin -0.13pp · n=14 · 100.0% peak0.23pp20.58ppbin 0.58pp · n=2 · 14.3% peakbin 0.58pp · n=2 · 14.3% peak30.93ppbin 0.93pp · n=3 · 21.4% peakbin 0.93pp · n=3 · 21.4% peak1.28pp1.63pp11.98ppbin 1.98pp · n=1 · 7.1% peakbin 1.98pp · n=1 · 7.1% peak12.33ppbin 2.33pp · n=1 · 7.1% peakbin 2.33pp · n=1 · 7.1% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=1.20 · kurt=1.71 · near 12 / mid 12 / far 0 · OLS slope=0.92 intercept=-0.00RIGHT-SKEWED · HEAVY POSITIVE TAILMILDLY HEAVY UPPERLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25PLATYKURTIC · THIN TAILS (G₂=-1.31)
μ MEAN60.12¢95% CI: [59.36¢, 60.88¢]
σ STD DEV1.95ppσ² = 3.798 · CV = 3.24%
med MEDIAN59.50¢Q₁ 58.50¢ · Q₃ 62.00¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 6.00pp · IQR 3.50pp (1.349σ→2.63pp)
min 57.50¢Q₁ 58.50¢med 59.50¢Q₃ 62.00¢max 63.50¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.289approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-1.311platykurtic · thin tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.32
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 0.75
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.08
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.40 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.401within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.181lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.877strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT+16.807significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.877
H = 0.877STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.401k=2-0.181k=3-0.091k=4+0.319k=5-0.1250+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=16.81)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.40 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=16.81)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID2481492
SLUGfifwc-ger-kor-2026-06-14-first-half-total-1pt5
CATEGORYGermany vs. Curaçao - More Markets
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS YES (64¢)
PRIMARY · YES63.50¢implied prob 63.50% · decimal odds 1.57×
COUNTER · NO36.50¢implied prob 36.50% · decimal odds 2.74×
63.50¢
36.50¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYACTIVE
24H VOLUME44.61k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY41.45k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS YES (64¢)|primary − counter| = 0.270 · entropy 0.947 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHACTIVE100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 63.5%NO 36.5%YES p̂63.5%H = 0.947 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES1.57×(64¢)NO2.74×(37¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.947 bits (95% of max) · high uncertainty
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§8 · Time decay & θ projection

Time decay & theta projection
⏱ URGENCY · VERY HIGHresolves 2026-06-14 17:00 UTC
0days
01hrs
28min
1.5 hours·θ = 9.547 pp/day
YES →$1.00(P = 63.5%)
NO →$0.00(P = 36.5%)
current: $0.6350 · expected return per side: $0.36 on YES hit · $0.64 on NO hit
0%25%50%75%100%YES $1NO $0NOW+0.7hRESOLVESP projection · σ=1.95% · path funnel to settle at YES=1 or NO=0
Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 9.547 pp/day
now1.48h left
9.547 pp/day×1.00
−25%1.11h left
11.024 pp/day×1.15
−50%0.74h left
13.501 pp/day×1.41
−75%0.37h left
19.093 pp/day×2.00
−90%0.15h left
30.189 pp/day×3.16
θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 2.50% · worst -1.00% · typical |Δ| 0.46%MILD BULLISH +6.00%BEST+2.50%15hWORST-1.00%14hTYPICAL |Δ|0.46%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+6.00%Σ signed ΔSTREAK▬ 0flat-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +0.14% · Σ +1.00%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.44% · Σ +3.50%US · 16-24 UTCμ +0.19% · Σ +1.50%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +6.00%+6.00%0.00%0.00% · 1h0.00% · 1h·1h0.00% · 2h0.00% · 2h·2h0.50% · 3h0.50% · 3h0.50%3h0.00% · 4h0.00% · 4h·4h0.50% · 5h0.50% · 5h0.50%5h0.00% · 6h0.00% · 6h·6h0.00% · 7h0.00% · 7h·7h1.00% · 8h1.00% · 8h1.00%8h0.00% · 9h0.00% · 9h·9h0.00% · 10h0.00% · 10h·10h0.00% · 11h0.00% · 11h·11h0.00% · 12h0.00% · 12h·12h1.00% · 13h1.00% · 13h1.00%13h-1.00% · 14h-1.00% · 14h-1.00%14h▼ WORST2.50% · 15h2.50% · 15h2.50%15h★ BEST-0.50% · 16h-0.50% · 16h-0.50%16h-1.00% · 17h-1.00% · 17h-1.00%17h0.00% · 18h0.00% · 18h·18h2.00% · 19h2.00% · 19h2.00%19h0.00% · 20h0.00% · 20h·20h0.00% · 21h0.00% · 21h·21h0.00% · 22h0.00% · 22h·22h1.00% · 23h1.00% · 23h1.00%23h0.00% · 24h0.00% · 24h·24hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+3.50%)RUNSup max 1 · down max 2BREADTH29% up · 13% down · 58% flat
7 up bars · 3 down · best 2.50% · worst -1.00% · typical |Δ| 0.458%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsSTRONG PROFIT +6.10% · SHALLOW DDFINAL+6.10%MAX DD-1.50%RECOVERYFULLY RECOVEREDMAX RUN-UP+6.10%UNDERWATER4/25 (16%)STREAK▬ 0EQUITY CURVE · end 1.0610 · peak 1.0610 · range [1.0000, 1.0610]1.06101.0000break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0610UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -1.50% · moderate0%-1.50%▼ TROUGH -1.50%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 2 total#1 -1.50%bar 17-19 · 3 bars · recovered#2 -1.00%bar 15-15 · 1 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -1.50%)RECOVERYfully recoveredTIME UNDER WATER16% of session · 4/25 bars
final equity 1.0610 (6.10%) · max DD -1.50% · time-under-water 4/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +18 / −0 (95% positive) · μ=37.63 · σ=22.45PROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST 55.93 (+0.82σ vs μ)76.4238.210.00-38.21-76.42μ = 37.6360.4260.4260.4260.4276.4276.4255.9355.9355.9355.9338.2138.2138.2138.2160.4260.420.000.0032.4832.4824.9324.9311.4211.4211.4211.4220.2820.2833.0933.097.647.6415.8715.8755.9355.9355.9355.93v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 55.934 · range [0.00, 76.42] · μ 37.628 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=76.5571 · σ=41.0023 · range [24.1661, 143.9861] · R²=0.525▲ RISING +224.04%σ EXTREME 53.56%LAST 78.3071143.9861114.031184.076154.121124.1661μ = 76.5571max 143.9861min 24.1661dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.53μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 78.31% · range [24.17%, 143.99%] · μ 76.56% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +1 / −18 (5% positive) · μ=-0.347 · σ=0.209MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.214 (+0.64σ vs μ)0.7270.3630.000-0.363-0.727μ = -0.347-0.583-0.583-0.583-0.583-0.333-0.333-0.500-0.500-0.357-0.357-0.233-0.233-0.233-0.233-0.083-0.083-0.500-0.500-0.510-0.510-0.727-0.727-0.494-0.494-0.458-0.458-0.312-0.312-0.125-0.1250.0790.079-0.075-0.075-0.357-0.357-0.214-0.214v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.214 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
3 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence3 reject·3 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀**

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
12.4059
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0020
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
9.2201
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0995
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-0.6817
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.8438
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
-0.1637
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.8700
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (5 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀**

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.9138
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0038
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

REJECT H₀*

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-2.0978
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0359
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zoneVR 0.362 → mean-reverting
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=6.89e-5 · top T=2.00h (24.7%) · top-3 cover 58.7%2 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)2.0e-41.5e-41.0e-45.1e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 1.63e-6 · 0.2% energyperiod 24.0 · power 1.63e-6 · 0.2% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.14e-6 · 0.1% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.14e-6 · 0.1% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.04e-5 · 1.3% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.04e-5 · 1.3% energyperiod 6.0 · power 3.23e-5 · 3.9% energyperiod 6.0 · power 3.23e-5 · 3.9% energyperiod 4.8 · power 6.51e-5 · 7.9% energyperiod 4.8 · power 6.51e-5 · 7.9% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.35e-4 · 16.4% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.35e-4 · 16.4% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.46e-4 · 17.6% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.46e-4 · 17.6% energyperiod 3.0 · power 2.19e-5 · 2.6% energyperiod 3.0 · power 2.19e-5 · 2.6% energyperiod 2.7 · power 6.05e-5 · 7.3% energyperiod 2.7 · power 6.05e-5 · 7.3% energyperiod 2.4 · power 6.97e-5 · 8.4% energyperiod 2.4 · power 6.97e-5 · 8.4% energyperiod 2.2 · power 7.93e-5 · 9.6% energyperiod 2.2 · power 7.93e-5 · 9.6% energyperiod 2.0 · power 2.04e-4 · 24.7% energyperiod 2.0 · power 2.04e-4 · 24.7% energy50% by T=2.7h#1 dominantT=2.00h#2T=3.43h#3T=4.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.00h (freq 0.500) · concentrates 24.7% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 8.271e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (1359 bars · effective 1753005 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 0.3 d · σ/bar 0.061pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 0.15ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.2318 · n = 1359✓ n = 1359
μ per bar
+0.002pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.061pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
0.30pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move0d
0.15pp
σ × √6
Terminal variancebinary
0.2318
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
63.5¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 0.10pp · ES₉₅ 0.12pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift +0.002pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 1.00pp · unique ratio 0.00✓ n = 1359
VaR 95%
0.10pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
0.12pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
1.6pp
peak 63.5¢ → trough 62.5¢
Median step
1.00pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
63.5%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
1.575
total return per $1
AmericanUS
-174
risk $174 to win $100
FractionalUK
0.57 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$57.48
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 63.5%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.947 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.947 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
0.66 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
1.45 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
11772893924503174185606470169008275162270510421749333377091753079466231314914
NO token ID
105123848867248194528305406122801859315341974215567657084109050626661399448102
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 15:31:14 UTC
Snapshot age
7ms
History points
25 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-14 15:31:14 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
3b6852bb81dcec06e2c9af63a5f4c18c8cc11c95c186eb2c053c3010297f9517 · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany94.3¢HL PREDSpain89.7¢HL PREDUruguay66.7¢POLYMARKETWill Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?1¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$64,014HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,662.5HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$60.52

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Germany vs. Curaçao - More Markets

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
0.635000
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
157.5bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.259
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.526
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-fifwc-ger-kor-2026-06-14-first-half-total-1pt5/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.649263224.62bp0.6500002FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.649926235.06bp0.6500002FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.697437983.26bp0.99000021PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.63000078.74bp0.6300001FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.614120328.83bp0.5900005FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.5311811634.94bp0.01000023PARTIAL

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 1,359 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75M
Realized vol (annualised)
128.74%
σ per bar = 0.000972
Mean return (annualised)
6247.38%
μ per bar = 0.000036
Sharpe (rf=0)
48.53
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
1.57%
peak 0.64 → trough 0.63 over 49 bars

/api/asset/pm-fifwc-ger-kor-2026-06-14-first-half-total-1pt5/risk · same metrics, JSON