POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · GERMANY VS. CURAÇAO - MORE MARKETS

Spread: Germany (-4.5)

YES · live
31.5¢
NO · live
68.5¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · fifwc-ger-kor-2026-06-14-spread-home-4pt5 · fresh · feed 0s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
108.29%
max drawdown
3.08%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
2.39%
RMS drawdown
pain index
2.04%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
3.08%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.67
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.67
upside/downside
roll spread
0.9 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
338
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-fifwc-ger-kor-2026-06-14-spread-home-4pt5/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH12ms⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
31.5¢
NO · live
68.5¢
YES price · live 24h
n=25 · μ=0.3136 · σ=0.0037 · range [0.3050, 0.3200] · R²=0.029▬ FLATσ NORMAL 1.18%LAST 0.31000.32000.31630.31250.30870.3050μ = 0.3136max 0.3200min 0.3050dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.03μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 ticks · last 31.00¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 31.5%NO 68.5%NO68.5%68.50¢ · odds 1/1.46
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.899 / 1.00 bits (90%) · high uncertainty
YES
31.5%31.5¢3.17×▬ +0.00pp
NO
68.5%68.5¢1.46×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=24 · Σ=400 · μ=16.7 · σ=28.2 · CV=1.69BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=170255075100μ = 1710050%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 400bp moved · peak 100bp · n=24 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
12ms
▲YES mid
31.50¢ (31.50%)
▼NO mid
68.50¢ (68.50%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$71.4k
≋liquidity $
$48.7k
◳history points
25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.3136 · σ=0.0037 · range [0.3050, 0.3200] · R²=0.029▬ FLATσ NORMAL 1.18%LAST 0.31000.32000.31630.31250.30870.3050μ = 0.3136max 0.3200min 0.3050dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.03μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 31.00¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.6864 · σ=0.0037 · range [0.6800, 0.6950] · R²=0.029▬ FLATσ LOW 0.54%LAST 0.69000.69500.69120.68750.68380.6800μ = 0.6864max 0.6950min 0.6800dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.03μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 69.00¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=24 · 10 bins · μ=-0.0003 · σ=0.0029 · skew=-0.93 (left-skewed) · kurt=2.28 (leptokurtic (fat tails))17139401-0.93ppbin -0.93pp · n=1 · 5.9% peakbin -0.93pp · n=1 · 5.9% peak-0.78pp-0.63pp2-0.48ppbin -0.48pp · n=2 · 11.8% peakbin -0.48pp · n=2 · 11.8% peak-0.33pp-0.18pp17-0.03ppbin -0.03pp · n=17 · 100.0% peakbin -0.03pp · n=17 · 100.0% peak0.13pp0.28pp40.43ppbin 0.43pp · n=4 · 23.5% peakbin 0.43pp · n=4 · 23.5% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-0.93 · kurt=2.28 · near 10 / mid 12 / far 2 · OLS slope=0.87 intercept=-0.00LEPTOKURTIC — FAT TAILSUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25LEFT-SKEWED (G₁=-0.75)
μ MEAN31.36¢95% CI: [31.22¢, 31.50¢]
σ STD DEV0.37ppσ² = 0.136 · CV = 1.18%
med MEDIAN31.50¢Q₁ 31.00¢ · Q₃ 31.50¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 1.50pp · IQR 0.50pp (1.349σ→0.50pp)
min 30.50¢Q₁ 31.00¢med 31.50¢Q₃ 31.50¢max 32.00¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.749left-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂0.295mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ < med · left-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.38
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 0.99
range ↔ σwide tails (range > 4σ)range / σ = 4.07
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MARTINGALE · UNPREDICTABLE
ρ(1) AUTOCORR+0.100within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.200lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.993strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT+0.822fails 5% test
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.993
H = 0.993STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1+0.100k=2-0.200k=3+0.000k=4-0.100k=5-0.4000+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]NOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=0.82)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMARTINGALE · UNPREDICTABLEfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCENOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=0.82)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID2497499
SLUGfifwc-ger-kor-2026-06-14-spread-home-4pt5
CATEGORYGermany vs. Curaçao - More Markets
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS NO (69¢)
PRIMARY · YES31.50¢implied prob 31.50% · decimal odds 3.17×
COUNTER · NO68.50¢implied prob 68.50% · decimal odds 1.46×
31.50¢
68.50¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYACTIVE
24H VOLUME71.36k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY48.65k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS NO (69¢)|primary − counter| = 0.370 · entropy 0.899 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHACTIVE100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 31.5%NO 68.5%YES p̂31.5%H = 0.899 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES3.17×(32¢)NO1.46×(69¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.899 bits (90% of max) · high uncertainty
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§8 · Time decay & θ projection

Time decay & theta projection
⏱ URGENCY · VERY HIGHresolves 2026-06-14 17:00 UTC
0days
03hrs
13min
3.2 hours·θ = 1.806 pp/day
YES →$1.00(P = 31.5%)
NO →$0.00(P = 68.5%)
current: $0.3150 · expected return per side: $0.69 on YES hit · $0.32 on NO hit
0%25%50%75%100%YES $1NO $0NOW+1.6hRESOLVESP projection · σ=0.37% · path funnel to settle at YES=1 or NO=0
Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 1.806 pp/day
now3.22h left
1.806 pp/day×1.00
−25%2.42h left
2.085 pp/day×1.15
−50%1.61h left
2.553 pp/day×1.41
−75%0.81h left
3.611 pp/day×2.00
−90%0.32h left
5.710 pp/day×3.16
θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 0.50% · worst -1.00% · typical |Δ| 0.17%MIXED · 4 UP / 3 DNBEST+0.50%3hWORST-1.00%14hTYPICAL |Δ|0.17%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+0.00%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 1down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +0.07% · Σ +0.50%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.13% · Σ -1.00%US · 16-24 UTCμ +0.13% · Σ +1.00%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +0.00%+1.00%-0.50%0.00% · 1h0.00% · 1h·1h0.00% · 2h0.00% · 2h·2h0.50% · 3h0.50% · 3h0.50%3h★ BEST0.00% · 4h0.00% · 4h·4h0.00% · 5h0.00% · 5h·5h0.00% · 6h0.00% · 6h·6h0.00% · 7h0.00% · 7h·7h0.00% · 8h0.00% · 8h·8h0.00% · 9h0.00% · 9h·9h0.00% · 10h0.00% · 10h·10h0.00% · 11h0.00% · 11h·11h0.00% · 12h0.00% · 12h·12h0.00% · 13h0.00% · 13h·13h-1.00% · 14h-1.00% · 14h-1.00%14h▼ WORST0.00% · 15h0.00% · 15h·15h0.50% · 16h0.50% · 16h0.50%16h0.50% · 17h0.50% · 17h0.50%17h0.00% · 18h0.00% · 18h·18h0.50% · 19h0.50% · 19h0.50%19h0.00% · 20h0.00% · 20h·20h-0.50% · 21h-0.50% · 21h-0.50%21h0.00% · 22h0.00% · 22h·22h0.00% · 23h0.00% · 23h·23h-0.50% · 24h-0.50% · 24h-0.50%24hTIME PATTERNUS-led (+1.00%)RUNSup max 2 · down max 1BREADTH17% up · 13% down · 71% flat
4 up bars · 3 down · best 0.50% · worst -1.00% · typical |Δ| 0.167%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS · SHALLOW DD (-0.01%)FINAL-0.01%MAX DD-1.00%RECOVERYONGOING · 5 barsMAX RUN-UP+0.99%UNDERWATER9/25 (36%)STREAK↘ 1EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9999 · peak 1.0099 · range [0.9949, 1.0099]1.00990.9949break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0099UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -1.00% · moderate0%-1.00%▼ TROUGH -1.00%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 2 total#1 -1.00%bar 15-19 · 5 bars · recovered#2 -1.00%bar 22-25 · 4 bars · ONGOINGDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -1.00%)RECOVERYongoing · 11 barsTIME UNDER WATER36% of session · 9/25 bars
final equity 0.9999 (-0.01%) · max DD -1.00% · time-under-water 9/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +7 / −4 (37% positive) · μ=8.39 · σ=29.83MIXED EDGELAST -20.72 (-0.98σ vs μ)85.4442.720.00-42.72-85.44μ = 8.3938.2138.2138.2138.2138.2138.210.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00-38.21-38.21-38.21-38.21-15.87-15.870.000.000.000.0013.3413.3485.4485.4438.2138.2120.7220.720.000.00-20.72-20.72v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -20.722 · range [-38.21, 85.44] · μ 8.386 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=26.3619 · σ=19.2237 · range [0.0000, 54.7083] · R²=0.369▲ RISING +84.39%σ EXTREME 72.92%LAST 35.227854.708341.031227.354213.67710.0000μ = 26.3619max 54.7083min 0.0000dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.37μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 35.23% · range [0.00%, 54.71%] · μ 26.36% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +4 / −9 (21% positive) · μ=-0.049 · σ=0.158MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.069 (-0.13σ vs μ)0.5000.2500.000-0.250-0.500μ = -0.049-0.233-0.233-0.233-0.233-0.033-0.0330.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000-0.033-0.033-0.233-0.233-0.075-0.0750.1670.1670.1670.1670.0930.093-0.500-0.5000.0670.067-0.010-0.0100.0000.000-0.069-0.069v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.069 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀**

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
13.7783
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0010
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
6.9726
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2216
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-2.3452
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1661
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
-0.3638
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7160
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (4 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.0901
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5000
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
0.0512
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.9592
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 1.016 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=1.11e-5 · top T=3.43h (19.4%) · top-3 cover 52.6%2 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)2.6e-51.9e-51.3e-56.5e-60.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 2.09e-7 · 0.2% energyperiod 24.0 · power 2.09e-7 · 0.2% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.00e-5 · 15.0% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.00e-5 · 15.0% energyperiod 8.0 · power 2.43e-5 · 18.2% energyperiod 8.0 · power 2.43e-5 · 18.2% energyperiod 6.0 · power 7.29e-6 · 5.5% energyperiod 6.0 · power 7.29e-6 · 5.5% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.09e-5 · 8.2% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.09e-5 · 8.2% energyperiod 4.0 · power 8.33e-6 · 6.2% energyperiod 4.0 · power 8.33e-6 · 6.2% energyperiod 3.4 · power 2.59e-5 · 19.4% energyperiod 3.4 · power 2.59e-5 · 19.4% energyperiod 3.0 · power 9.38e-6 · 7.0% energyperiod 3.0 · power 9.38e-6 · 7.0% energyperiod 2.7 · power 7.15e-7 · 0.5% energyperiod 2.7 · power 7.15e-7 · 0.5% energyperiod 2.4 · power 9.17e-6 · 6.9% energyperiod 2.4 · power 9.17e-6 · 6.9% energyperiod 2.2 · power 4.98e-7 · 0.4% energyperiod 2.2 · power 4.98e-7 · 0.4% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.67e-5 · 12.5% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.67e-5 · 12.5% energy50% by T=4.0h#1 dominantT=3.43h#2T=8.00h#3T=12.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 3.43h (freq 0.292) · concentrates 19.4% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 1.333e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (338 bars · effective 1752908 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 0.3 d · σ/bar 0.082pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 0.20ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.2158 · n = 338✓ n = 338
μ per bar
-0.001pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.082pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
0.40pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move0d
0.20pp
σ × √6
Terminal variancebinary
0.2158
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
31.5¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 0.14pp · ES₉₅ 0.17pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift -0.001pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.50pp · unique ratio 0.01✓ n = 338
VaR 95%
0.14pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
0.17pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
3.1pp
peak 32.5¢ → trough 31.5¢
Median step
0.50pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
31.5%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
3.175
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+217
$100 wins $217
FractionalUK
2.17 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$217.46
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 31.5%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.899 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.899 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
1.67 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.55 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
19415553036297999722510455885684580823127505577979242707057774035257913484227
NO token ID
76460592529862056930892018272795949121459079143403378613635750862916313417350
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 13:46:36 UTC
Snapshot age
12ms
History points
25 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-14 13:46:36 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
606d94f9a6af542867163efff116a2543ca89c2e3ae8409d3e4470f0fdc7d47e · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Germany vs. Curaçao - More Markets

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
0.310000
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
645.2bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.002
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.151
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-fifwc-ger-kor-2026-06-14-spread-home-4pt5/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.323280428.38bp0.3300002FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.332377721.85bp0.3400003FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.3842742395.94bp0.99000029PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.300000322.58bp0.3000001FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.295745459.85bp0.2800003FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.2471532027.33bp0.01000023PARTIAL

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 338 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75M
Realized vol (annualised)
338.84%
σ per bar = 0.002559
Mean return (annualised)
-8191.52%
μ per bar = -0.000047
Sharpe (rf=0)
-24.18
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
3.08%
peak 0.33 → trough 0.32 over 48 bars

/api/asset/pm-fifwc-ger-kor-2026-06-14-spread-home-4pt5/risk · same metrics, JSON