POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · GERMANY VS. CURAÇAO - MORE MARKETS

Spread: Germany (-5.5)

YES · live
20.0¢
NO · live
80.0¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · fifwc-ger-kor-2026-06-14-spread-home-5pt5 · fresh · feed 0s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
464.84%
max drawdown
20.00%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
10.00%
RMS drawdown
pain index
7.62%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
18.80%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
1.04
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.04
upside/downside
roll spread
0.7 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
681
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-fifwc-ger-kor-2026-06-14-spread-home-5pt5/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH9ms⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
20.0¢
NO · live
80.0¢
YES price · live 24h
n=25 · μ=0.1864 · σ=0.0190 · range [0.1650, 0.2450] · R²=0.384▲ RISING +20.59%σ HIGH 10.20%LAST 0.20500.24500.22500.20500.18500.1650μ = 0.1864max 0.2450min 0.1650dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.38μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 ticks · last 20.50¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 20.0%NO 80.0%NO80.0%80.00¢ · odds 1/1.25
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.722 / 1.00 bits (72%) · moderate uncertainty
YES
20.0%20.0¢5.00×▬ +0.00pp
NO
80.0%80.0¢1.25×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=24 · Σ=2,450 · μ=102.1 · σ=100.5 · CV=0.98BURSTYcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=170100200300400μ = 10240050%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 2450bp moved · peak 400bp · n=24 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
9ms
▲YES mid
20.00¢ (20.00%)
▼NO mid
80.00¢ (80.00%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$853.6k
≋liquidity $
$98.4k
◳history points
25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.1864 · σ=0.0190 · range [0.1650, 0.2450] · R²=0.384▲ RISING +20.59%σ HIGH 10.20%LAST 0.20500.24500.22500.20500.18500.1650μ = 0.1864max 0.2450min 0.1650dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.38μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 20.50¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.8134 · σ=0.0191 · range [0.7550, 0.8350] · R²=0.383▼ FALLING -4.22%σ NORMAL 2.35%LAST 0.79500.83500.81500.79500.77500.7550μ = 0.8134max 0.8350min 0.7550dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.38μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 79.50¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=24 · 10 bins · μ=0.0022 · σ=0.0135 · skew=0.66 (right-skewed) · kurt=0.16 (mesokurtic)543103-1.70ppbin -1.70pp · n=3 · 60.0% peakbin -1.70pp · n=3 · 60.0% peak3-1.10ppbin -1.10pp · n=3 · 60.0% peakbin -1.10pp · n=3 · 60.0% peak3-0.50ppbin -0.50pp · n=3 · 60.0% peakbin -0.50pp · n=3 · 60.0% peak50.10ppbin 0.10pp · n=5 · 100.0% peakbin 0.10pp · n=5 · 100.0% peak50.70ppbin 0.70pp · n=5 · 100.0% peakbin 0.70pp · n=5 · 100.0% peak21.30ppbin 1.30pp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin 1.30pp · n=2 · 40.0% peak1.90pp22.50ppbin 2.50pp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin 2.50pp · n=2 · 40.0% peak3.10pp13.70ppbin 3.70pp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 3.70pp · n=1 · 20.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=0.75 · kurt=0.72 · near 19 / mid 5 / far 0 · OLS slope=0.99 intercept=-0.00APPROXIMATELY NORMALMILDLY HEAVY UPPERLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25STRONGLY RIGHT-SKEWED (G₁=1.57)
μ MEAN18.64¢95% CI: [17.89¢, 19.39¢]
σ STD DEV1.90ppσ² = 3.615 · CV = 10.20%
med MEDIAN18.00¢Q₁ 17.50¢ · Q₃ 19.00¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 8.00pp · IQR 1.50pp (1.349σ→2.56pp)
min 16.50¢Q₁ 17.50¢med 18.00¢Q₃ 19.00¢max 24.50¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁1.569right-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂1.902leptokurtic · fat tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.34
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 1.71
range ↔ σwide tails (range > 4σ)range / σ = 4.21
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit root
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.014within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.227lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT1.054strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT+3.783significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 1.054
H = 1.054STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.014k=2-0.227k=3-0.024k=4-0.363k=5+0.1270+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=3.78)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit rootfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=3.78)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID2528682
SLUGfifwc-ger-kor-2026-06-14-spread-home-5pt5
CATEGORYGermany vs. Curaçao - More Markets
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS NO (80¢)
PRIMARY · YES20.00¢implied prob 20.00% · decimal odds 5.00×
COUNTER · NO80.00¢implied prob 80.00% · decimal odds 1.25×
20.00¢
80.00¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYDEEP
24H VOLUME853.55k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY98.36k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS NO (80¢)|primary − counter| = 0.600 · entropy 0.722 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHDEEP100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 20.0%NO 80.0%YES p̂20.0%H = 0.722 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES5.00×(20¢)NO1.25×(80¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.722 bits (72% of max) · moderate uncertainty
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§8 · Time decay & θ projection

Time decay & theta projection
⏱ URGENCY · CRITICALresolves 2026-06-14 17:00 UTC
0days
00hrs
07min
7 minutes·θ = 9.315 pp/day
YES →$1.00(P = 20.0%)
NO →$0.00(P = 80.0%)
current: $0.2000 · expected return per side: $0.80 on YES hit · $0.20 on NO hit
0%25%50%75%100%YES $1NO $0NOW+0.1hRESOLVESP projection · σ=1.90% · path funnel to settle at YES=1 or NO=0
Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 9.315 pp/day
now0.12h left
9.315 pp/day×1.00
−25%0.09h left
10.755 pp/day×1.15
−50%0.06h left
13.173 pp/day×1.41
−75%0.03h left
18.629 pp/day×2.00
−90%0.01h left
29.455 pp/day×3.16
θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 4.00% · worst -2.00% · typical |Δ| 1.02%MILD BULLISH +3.50%BEST+4.00%21hWORST-2.00%15hTYPICAL |Δ|1.02%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+3.50%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 2down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +0.07% · Σ +0.50%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.00% · Σ +0.00%US · 16-24 UTCμ +0.63% · Σ +5.00%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +3.50%+7.50%-0.50%1.00% · 1h1.00% · 1h1.00%1h-0.50% · 2h-0.50% · 2h-0.50%2h0.50% · 3h0.50% · 3h0.50%3h0.00% · 4h0.00% · 4h·4h0.00% · 5h0.00% · 5h·5h0.50% · 6h0.50% · 6h0.50%6h-1.00% · 7h-1.00% · 7h-1.00%7h0.00% · 8h0.00% · 8h·8h-1.00% · 9h-1.00% · 9h-1.00%9h0.00% · 10h0.00% · 10h·10h2.50% · 11h2.50% · 11h2.50%11h-0.50% · 12h-0.50% · 12h-0.50%12h0.50% · 13h0.50% · 13h0.50%13h0.50% · 14h0.50% · 14h0.50%14h-2.00% · 15h-2.00% · 15h-2.00%15h▼ WORST1.00% · 16h1.00% · 16h1.00%16h-1.00% · 17h-1.00% · 17h-1.00%17h0.00% · 18h0.00% · 18h·18h1.00% · 19h1.00% · 19h1.00%19h-0.50% · 20h-0.50% · 20h-0.50%20h4.00% · 21h4.00% · 21h4.00%21h★ BEST2.50% · 22h2.50% · 22h2.50%22h-2.00% · 23h-2.00% · 23h-2.00%23h-2.00% · 24h-2.00% · 24h-2.00%24hTIME PATTERNUS-led (+5.00%)RUNSup max 2 · down max 2BREADTH42% up · 38% down · 21% flat
10 up bars · 9 down · best 4.00% · worst -2.00% · typical |Δ| 1.021%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsPROFITABLE +3.31%FINAL+3.31%MAX DD-3.96%RECOVERYONGOING · 2 barsMAX RUN-UP+7.57%UNDERWATER18/25 (72%)STREAK↘ 2EQUITY CURVE · end 1.0331 · peak 1.0757 · range [0.9948, 1.0757]1.07570.9948break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0757UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -3.96% · moderate0%-3.96%▼ TROUGH -3.96%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 5 total#1 -3.96%bar 24-25 · 2 bars · ONGOING#2 -2.01%bar 16-21 · 6 bars · recovered#3 -1.99%bar 8-11 · 4 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -3.96%)RECOVERYongoing · 2 barsTIME UNDER WATER72% of session · 18/25 bars
final equity 1.0331 (3.31%) · max DD -3.96% · time-under-water 18/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +10 / −7 (53% positive) · μ=6.61 · σ=26.49MIXED EDGELAST 19.10 (+0.47σ vs μ)48.6624.330.00-24.33-48.66μ = 6.6144.6244.62-13.34-13.340.000.00-38.21-38.21-38.21-38.2112.0812.080.000.0019.2719.2725.7625.7610.6010.6020.7220.72-20.72-20.72-13.86-13.86-6.50-6.50-19.95-19.9539.4039.4048.6648.6636.1136.1119.1019.10v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 19.105 · range [-38.21, 48.66] · μ 6.606 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=117.3499 · σ=51.4522 · range [49.0816, 229.2597] · R²=0.762▲ RISING +367.10%σ EXTREME 43.85%LAST 229.2597229.2597184.2151139.170694.126149.0816μ = 117.3499max 229.2597min 49.0816dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.76μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 229.26% · range [49.08%, 229.26%] · μ 117.35% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +2 / −17 (11% positive) · μ=-0.315 · σ=0.231MEAN-REVERSIONLAST 0.142 (+1.98σ vs μ)0.6370.3190.000-0.319-0.637μ = -0.315-0.591-0.591-0.394-0.394-0.333-0.333-0.367-0.367-0.500-0.500-0.023-0.023-0.147-0.147-0.246-0.246-0.299-0.299-0.256-0.256-0.341-0.341-0.637-0.637-0.636-0.636-0.579-0.579-0.482-0.482-0.232-0.2320.1080.108-0.173-0.1730.1420.142v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 0.142 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
3.9788
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1368
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
6.1228
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2938
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.8826
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3512
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
1.6698
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0950
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (14 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.4787
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0465
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-0.9297
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3525
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.717 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=1.99e-4 · top T=2.67h (25.6%) · top-3 cover 58.2%2 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)6.1e-44.6e-43.1e-41.5e-40.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 4.73e-5 · 2.0% energyperiod 24.0 · power 4.73e-5 · 2.0% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.21e-4 · 5.1% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.21e-4 · 5.1% energyperiod 8.0 · power 4.48e-4 · 18.7% energyperiod 8.0 · power 4.48e-4 · 18.7% energyperiod 6.0 · power 9.69e-5 · 4.1% energyperiod 6.0 · power 9.69e-5 · 4.1% energyperiod 4.8 · power 3.31e-4 · 13.8% energyperiod 4.8 · power 3.31e-4 · 13.8% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.89e-4 · 7.9% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.89e-4 · 7.9% energyperiod 3.4 · power 2.13e-4 · 8.9% energyperiod 3.4 · power 2.13e-4 · 8.9% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.39e-4 · 5.8% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.39e-4 · 5.8% energyperiod 2.7 · power 6.13e-4 · 25.6% energyperiod 2.7 · power 6.13e-4 · 25.6% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.43e-4 · 6.0% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.43e-4 · 6.0% energyperiod 2.2 · power 4.20e-5 · 1.8% energyperiod 2.2 · power 4.20e-5 · 1.8% energyperiod 2.0 · power 9.38e-6 · 0.4% energyperiod 2.0 · power 9.38e-6 · 0.4% energy50% by T=4.0h#1 dominantT=2.67h#2T=8.00h#3T=4.80hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.67h (freq 0.375) · concentrates 25.6% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 2.392e-3

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (681 bars · effective 1753005 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 0.3 d · σ/bar 0.351pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 0.86ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.1600 · n = 681✓ n = 681
μ per bar
+0.001pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.351pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
1.72pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move0d
0.86pp
σ × √6
Terminal variancebinary
0.1600
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
20.0¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 0.58pp · ES₉₅ 0.72pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift +0.001pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.50pp · unique ratio 0.02✓ n = 681
VaR 95%
0.58pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
0.72pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
20.0pp
peak 25.0¢ → trough 20.0¢
Median step
0.50pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
20.0%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
5.000
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+400
$100 wins $400
FractionalUK
4.00 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$400.00
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 20.0%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.722 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.722 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
2.32 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.32 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
51063060908286597926532881227165868068173352304157998568507334654137146139080
NO token ID
86310124512253071419268593198760768012012730401972982989761564283616588398014
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 16:52:49 UTC
Snapshot age
9ms
History points
25 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-14 16:52:49 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
7fb785da014325793006bfd25d18d0b09ea9844a99901184d4dd035708c89b03 · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany93.9¢HL PREDSpain89.5¢HL PREDUruguay66.9¢POLYMARKETWill Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?22¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$63,992.5HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,662.95HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$60.08

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Germany vs. Curaçao - More Markets

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
0.195000
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
1538.5bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.162
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.546
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-fifwc-ger-kor-2026-06-14-spread-home-5pt5/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.2172181139.38bp0.2300003FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.2702683859.90bp0.3000009FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.60038320788.88bp0.91000035FILLED
SELL$1.00K0.1610181742.66bp0.1600003FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.1409862769.97bp0.1200007FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.0780215998.92bp0.01000018PARTIAL

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 681 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75M
Realized vol (annualised)
2264.19%
σ per bar = 0.017101
Mean return (annualised)
6526.80%
μ per bar = 0.000037
Sharpe (rf=0)
2.88
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
20.00%
peak 0.25 → trough 0.20 over 267 bars

/api/asset/pm-fifwc-ger-kor-2026-06-14-spread-home-5pt5/risk · same metrics, JSON