POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · NETHERLANDS VS. JAPAN - TOTAL CORNERS

Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners

YES · live
45.0¢
NO · live
55.0¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · fifwc-nld-jpn-2026-06-14-corners-total-9pt5 · fresh · feed 0s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
58.53%
max drawdown
2.27%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
1.08%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.80%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
2.27%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
1.67
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.67
upside/downside
roll spread
0.4 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
1280
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-fifwc-nld-jpn-2026-06-14-corners-total-9pt5/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH5ms⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
45.0¢
NO · live
55.0¢
YES price · live 24h
n=25 · μ=0.4632 · σ=0.0180 · range [0.4300, 0.4900] · R²=0.565▼ FALLING -4.26%σ NORMAL 3.88%LAST 0.45000.49000.47500.46000.44500.4300μ = 0.4632max 0.4900min 0.4300dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.57μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 ticks · last 45.00¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 45.0%NO 55.0%NO55.0%55.00¢ · odds 1/1.82
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.993 / 1.00 bits (99%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
YES
45.0%45.0¢2.22×▬ +0.00pp
NO
55.0%55.0¢1.82×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=24 · Σ=1,500 · μ=62.5 · σ=77.0 · CV=1.23BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=14063125188250μ = 6225050%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 1500bp moved · peak 250bp · n=24 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
5ms
▲YES mid
45.00¢ (45.00%)
▼NO mid
55.00¢ (55.00%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$37.3k
≋liquidity $
$72.9k
◳history points
25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.4632 · σ=0.0180 · range [0.4300, 0.4900] · R²=0.565▼ FALLING -4.26%σ NORMAL 3.88%LAST 0.45000.49000.47500.46000.44500.4300μ = 0.4632max 0.4900min 0.4300dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.57μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 45.00¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.5368 · σ=0.0180 · range [0.5100, 0.5700] · R²=0.565▲ RISING +3.77%σ NORMAL 3.35%LAST 0.55000.57000.55500.54000.52500.5100μ = 0.5368max 0.5700min 0.5100dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.57μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 55.00¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=24 · 10 bins · μ=0.0012 · σ=0.0089 · skew=-0.37 (symmetric) · kurt=1.18 (leptokurtic (fat tails))1085301-2.25ppbin -2.25pp · n=1 · 10.0% peakbin -2.25pp · n=1 · 10.0% peak-1.75pp2-1.25ppbin -1.25pp · n=2 · 20.0% peakbin -1.25pp · n=2 · 20.0% peak1-0.75ppbin -0.75pp · n=1 · 10.0% peakbin -0.75pp · n=1 · 10.0% peak4-0.25ppbin -0.25pp · n=4 · 40.0% peakbin -0.25pp · n=4 · 40.0% peak100.25ppbin 0.25pp · n=10 · 100.0% peakbin 0.25pp · n=10 · 100.0% peak30.75ppbin 0.75pp · n=3 · 30.0% peakbin 0.75pp · n=3 · 30.0% peak21.25ppbin 1.25pp · n=2 · 20.0% peakbin 1.25pp · n=2 · 20.0% peak1.75pp12.25ppbin 2.25pp · n=1 · 10.0% peakbin 2.25pp · n=1 · 10.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=0.10 · kurt=1.40 · near 15 / mid 9 / far 0 · OLS slope=0.98 intercept=-0.00APPROXIMATELY NORMALUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25PLATYKURTIC · THIN TAILS (G₂=-1.29)
μ MEAN46.32¢95% CI: [45.62¢, 47.02¢]
σ STD DEV1.80ppσ² = 3.227 · CV = 3.88%
med MEDIAN46.50¢Q₁ 45.00¢ · Q₃ 48.50¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 6.00pp · IQR 3.50pp (1.349σ→2.42pp)
min 43.00¢Q₁ 45.00¢med 46.50¢Q₃ 48.50¢max 49.00¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.101approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-1.294platykurtic · thin tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ < med · left-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.10
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 0.69
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.34
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: INDETERMINATE · weak signal at n=24
ρ(1) AUTOCORR+0.082within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.128lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.841strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-5.466significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.841
H = 0.841STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1+0.082k=2-0.128k=3-0.269k=4-0.224k=5+0.1440+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=5.47)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONINDETERMINATE · weak signal at n=24from Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.76very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=5.47)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID2497494
SLUGfifwc-nld-jpn-2026-06-14-corners-total-9pt5
CATEGORYNetherlands vs. Japan - Total Corners
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS NO (55¢)
PRIMARY · YES45.00¢implied prob 45.00% · decimal odds 2.22×
COUNTER · NO55.00¢implied prob 55.00% · decimal odds 1.82×
45.00¢
55.00¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYACTIVE
24H VOLUME37.30k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY72.93k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS NO (55¢)|primary − counter| = 0.100 · entropy 0.993 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHACTIVE100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 45.0%NO 55.0%YES p̂45.0%H = 0.993 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES2.22×(45¢)NO1.82×(55¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.993 bits (99% of max) · maximum uncertainty (~50/50)
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§8 · Time decay & θ projection

Time decay & theta projection
⏱ URGENCY · VERY HIGHresolves 2026-06-14 20:00 UTC
0days
03hrs
43min
3.7 hours·θ = 8.800 pp/day
YES →$1.00(P = 45.0%)
NO →$0.00(P = 55.0%)
current: $0.4500 · expected return per side: $0.55 on YES hit · $0.45 on NO hit
0%25%50%75%100%YES $1NO $0NOW+1.9hRESOLVESP projection · σ=1.80% · path funnel to settle at YES=1 or NO=0
Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 8.800 pp/day
now3.72h left
8.800 pp/day×1.00
−25%2.79h left
10.161 pp/day×1.15
−50%1.86h left
12.445 pp/day×1.41
−75%0.93h left
17.600 pp/day×2.00
−90%0.37h left
27.828 pp/day×3.16
θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 2.50% · worst -2.50% · typical |Δ| 0.62%BEARISH SESSION -2.00%BEST+2.50%3hWORST-2.50%17hTYPICAL |Δ|0.62%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-2.00%Σ signed ΔSTREAK▬ 0flat-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +0.21% · Σ +1.50%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.25% · Σ -2.00%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.19% · Σ -1.50%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -2.00%+2.00%-4.00%-0.50% · 1h-0.50% · 1h-0.50%1h0.00% · 2h0.00% · 2h·2h2.50% · 3h2.50% · 3h2.50%3h★ BEST-0.50% · 4h-0.50% · 4h-0.50%4h0.00% · 5h0.00% · 5h·5h0.00% · 6h0.00% · 6h·6h0.00% · 7h0.00% · 7h·7h0.00% · 8h0.00% · 8h·8h0.00% · 9h0.00% · 9h·9h-1.50% · 10h-1.50% · 10h-1.50%10h-0.50% · 11h-0.50% · 11h-0.50%11h-1.50% · 12h-1.50% · 12h-1.50%12h0.50% · 13h0.50% · 13h0.50%13h1.50% · 14h1.50% · 14h1.50%14h-0.50% · 15h-0.50% · 15h-0.50%15h0.00% · 16h0.00% · 16h·16h-2.50% · 17h-2.50% · 17h-2.50%17h▼ WORST-1.00% · 18h-1.00% · 18h-1.00%18h0.50% · 19h0.50% · 19h0.50%19h1.00% · 20h1.00% · 20h1.00%20h0.00% · 21h0.00% · 21h·21h0.00% · 22h0.00% · 22h·22h0.50% · 23h0.50% · 23h0.50%23h0.00% · 24h0.00% · 24h·24hTIME PATTERNAsia-led (+1.50%)RUNSup max 2 · down max 3BREADTH25% up · 33% down · 42% flat
6 up bars · 8 down · best 2.50% · worst -2.50% · typical |Δ| 0.625%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS WITH MODERATE DD (-2.09%)FINAL-2.09%MAX DD-5.89%RECOVERYONGOING · 21 barsMAX RUN-UP+1.99%UNDERWATER23/25 (92%)STREAK▬ 0EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9791 · peak 1.0199 · range [0.9598, 1.0199]1.01990.9598break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0199UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -5.89% · significant0%-5.89%▼ TROUGH -5.89%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 2 total#1 -5.89%bar 5-25 · 21 bars · ONGOING#2 -0.50%bar 2-3 · 2 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYsignificant (max -5.89%)RECOVERYongoing · 21 barsTIME UNDER WATER92% of session · 23/25 bars
final equity 0.9791 (-2.09%) · max DD -5.89% · time-under-water 23/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +5 / −14 (26% positive) · μ=-15.20 · σ=36.10UNPROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST 76.42 (+2.54σ vs μ)76.4238.210.00-38.21-76.42μ = -15.2020.7220.7228.8828.8828.8828.88-38.21-38.21-38.21-38.21-51.52-51.52-74.18-74.18-55.93-55.93-19.95-19.95-26.69-26.69-7.64-7.64-27.29-27.29-22.83-22.83-22.83-22.83-31.41-31.41-24.93-24.93-24.93-24.9322.8322.8376.4276.42v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 76.420 · range [-74.18, 76.42] · μ -15.201 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=91.8416 · σ=32.7595 · range [19.1050, 133.7348] · R²=0.038▼ FALLING -63.84%σ EXTREME 35.67%LAST 38.2099133.7348105.077476.419947.762419.1050μ = 91.8416max 133.7348min 19.1050dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.04μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 38.21% · range [19.10%, 133.73%] · μ 91.84% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +7 / −12 (37% positive) · μ=-0.022 · σ=0.188CLOSE TO MARTINGALELAST -0.133 (-0.59σ vs μ)0.3570.1790.000-0.179-0.357μ = -0.022-0.284-0.284-0.348-0.348-0.205-0.205-0.033-0.033-0.033-0.0330.0760.076-0.003-0.003-0.357-0.3570.1000.1000.0930.093-0.001-0.001-0.029-0.0290.2020.202-0.021-0.0210.1400.1400.2200.2200.3260.326-0.119-0.119-0.133-0.133v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.133 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
4.2012
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1224
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
5.0503
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4103
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.2562
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6472
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
-1.0566
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2907
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (6 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.6595
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0172
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
0.3590
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7196
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 1.109 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=9.58e-5 · top T=6.00h (27.3%) · top-3 cover 53.0%1 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEcumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)3.1e-42.4e-41.6e-47.8e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 1.03e-4 · 8.9% energyperiod 24.0 · power 1.03e-4 · 8.9% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.75e-5 · 1.5% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.75e-5 · 1.5% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.36e-4 · 11.8% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.36e-4 · 11.8% energyperiod 6.0 · power 3.14e-4 · 27.3% energyperiod 6.0 · power 3.14e-4 · 27.3% energyperiod 4.8 · power 5.78e-5 · 5.0% energyperiod 4.8 · power 5.78e-5 · 5.0% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.04e-4 · 9.1% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.04e-4 · 9.1% energyperiod 3.4 · power 8.22e-5 · 7.2% energyperiod 3.4 · power 8.22e-5 · 7.2% energyperiod 3.0 · power 7.29e-6 · 0.6% energyperiod 3.0 · power 7.29e-6 · 0.6% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.60e-4 · 13.9% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.60e-4 · 13.9% energyperiod 2.4 · power 2.83e-5 · 2.5% energyperiod 2.4 · power 2.83e-5 · 2.5% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.24e-4 · 10.8% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.24e-4 · 10.8% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.67e-5 · 1.4% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.67e-5 · 1.4% energy50% by T=4.8h#1 dominantT=6.00h#2T=2.67h#3T=8.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 6.00h (freq 0.167) · concentrates 27.3% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 1.150e-3

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (1280 bars · effective 1753005 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 0.3 d · σ/bar 0.044pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 0.11ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.2475 · n = 1280✓ n = 1280
μ per bar
+0.001pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.044pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
0.22pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move0d
0.11pp
σ × √6
Terminal variancebinary
0.2475
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
45.0¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 0.07pp · ES₉₅ 0.09pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift +0.001pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.50pp · unique ratio 0.00✓ n = 1280
VaR 95%
0.07pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
0.09pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
2.3pp
peak 44.0¢ → trough 43.0¢
Median step
0.50pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
45.0%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
2.222
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+122
$100 wins $122
FractionalUK
1.22 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$122.22
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 45.0%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.993 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.993 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
1.15 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.86 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
93428830884754097259569622296530700881529268405007440575077513259489177465652
NO token ID
30299472027974558644149202021452050309459560362219901634788222962974426796256
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 16:16:44 UTC
Snapshot age
5ms
History points
25 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-14 16:16:44 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
225de2fc9ab9248fb46b32189c6b87bc933f452d10e0ed930a17a1497b197b16 · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany94.2¢HL PREDSpain89.6¢HL PREDUruguay66.9¢POLYMARKETWill Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?1¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$64,093HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,664.5HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$60.32

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Netherlands vs. Japan - Total Corners

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
0.450000
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
444.4bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.643
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.758
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-fifwc-nld-jpn-2026-06-14-corners-total-9pt5/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.464439320.88bp0.4700002FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.5438922086.49bp0.82000018FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.6050293445.09bp0.99000028PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.440000222.22bp0.4400001FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.431549410.01bp0.4300002FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.406172973.95bp0.01000022PARTIAL

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 1,280 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75M
Realized vol (annualised)
132.95%
σ per bar = 0.001004
Mean return (annualised)
3080.14%
μ per bar = 0.000018
Sharpe (rf=0)
23.17
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
2.27%
peak 0.44 → trough 0.43 over 233 bars

/api/asset/pm-fifwc-nld-jpn-2026-06-14-corners-total-9pt5/risk · same metrics, JSON