POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · NETHERLANDS VS. JAPAN - EXACT SCORE
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 1 Japan?
9.5¢
90.5¢
▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle
polymarket · fifwc-nld-jpn-2026-06-14-exact-score-0-1 · fresh · feed 0s old24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
155.99%
max drawdown
0.00%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
0.00%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.00%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
0.00%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
—
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
—
upside/downside
roll spread
16.1 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
289
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API:
/api/m2m/pm-fifwc-nld-jpn-2026-06-14-exact-score-0-1/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH⏱--:--:-- UTCNEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
9.5¢
NO · live
90.5¢
25 ticks · last 9.50¢
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.453 / 1.00 bits (45%) · informative — one side favoured
YES9.5%9.5¢10.53×▬ +0.00pp
NO90.5%90.5¢1.10×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Σ 700bp moved · peak 200bp · n=24 ticks
13ms
9.50¢ (9.50%)
90.50¢ (90.50%)
100.00%
0.000pp
$33.2k
$32.6k
25 ticks (live)
§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 9.50¢
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 90.50¢
§2 · Distribution of Δp
n=24
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.
§3 · Sample moments
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25STRONGLY RIGHT-SKEWED (G₁=1.38)
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOT
SKEWNESS · G₁1.377right-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂0.686mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.
§5 · Time-series structure
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.47 + ADF rejected
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]
H = 1.010STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.
§6 · Microstructure
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
TWO-SIDED PRICING
9.50¢
90.50¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TEST
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITY
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.
§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis
FAIR MARKET · no edge
Probability scale (YES)
Implied decimal odds
YES10.53×(10¢)NO1.10×(91¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.453 bits (45% of max) · informative — one side strongly favoured
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.
§8 · Time decay & θ projection
⏱ URGENCY · VERY HIGHresolves 2026-06-14 20:00 UTC
0days
03hrs
02min
YES →$1.00
NO →$0.00
current: $0.0950 · expected return per side: $0.91 on YES hit · $0.10 on NO hit
Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 3.105 pp/day
now3.04h left3.105 pp/day×1.00
−25%2.28h left3.585 pp/day×1.15
−50%1.52h left4.391 pp/day×1.41
−75%0.76h left6.210 pp/day×2.00
−90%0.30h left9.818 pp/day×3.16
θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.
§9 · Hourly return heatmap
4 up bars · 3 down · best 2.00% · worst -1.00% · typical |Δ| 0.292%
§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown
final equity 1.0198 (1.98%) · max DD -1.01% · time-under-water 9/25 bars
§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)
latest 30.208 · range [-30.21, 38.21] · μ 6.392 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
latest 96.66% · range [0.00%, 109.42%] · μ 38.18% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
latest -0.708 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk
§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)
4 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence4 reject·2 pass·α = 0.05
Jarque-Bera
REJECT H₀***H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)
STATISTIC
24.4438
p-VALUE (log scale)
< 0.0001
Ljung-Box(h=5)
REJECT H₀*H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5
STATISTIC
14.9691
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0106
Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)
FAIL TO REJECTnsH₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)
STATISTIC
-1.9208
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3329
Wald-Wolfowitz runs
REJECT H₀*H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random
STATISTIC
2.1828
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0290
KPSS (μ stationarity)
REJECT H₀*H₀: p IS level-stationary
STATISTIC
0.5661
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0268
Variance ratio q=3
FAIL TO REJECTnsH₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1
STATISTIC
-1.7354
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0827
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).
§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)
dominant period ≈ 2.00h (freq 0.500) · concentrates 39.4% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 5.188e-4
▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (289 bars · effective 1753103 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.
§14 · Honest position analytics
A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →
§15 · Horizon returns
Horizon 0.3 d · σ/bar 0.118pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 0.29ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0860 · n = 289✓ n = 289
μ per bar
+0.007pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.118pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
0.58pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move0d
0.29pp
σ × √6
Terminal variancebinary
0.0860
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
9.5¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.
§16 · Tail risk
VaR₉₅ 0.19pp · ES₉₅ 0.24pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift +0.007pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 2.00pp · unique ratio 0.01✓ n = 289
VaR 95%
0.19pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
0.24pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
0.0pp
peak 7.5¢ → trough 7.5¢
Median step
2.00pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.
§17 · Odds conversion
Implied probabilityP
9.5%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
10.526
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+953
$100 wins $953
FractionalUK
9.53 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$952.63
clean dollar framing
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.
§18 · Binary entropy
Market entropyH(p)
0.453 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.453 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
3.40 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.14 bit
self-information
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.
§19 · Model-dependent surfaces
External model required
The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.
The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.
To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.
§∞ · Provenance & attestation
- Upstream (snapshot)
- gamma-api.polymarket.com
- Upstream (history)
- clob.polymarket.com
- YES token ID
32772585200916291618661143817324333708522333254715889744105580022975712265186- NO token ID
91489849959462430186163818241145685416050728848605551590400216108702029323575- Snapshot fetched
- 2026-06-14 16:57:31 UTC
- Snapshot age
- 13ms
- History points
- 25 CLOB mids
- Page rendered
- 2026-06-14 16:57:31 UTC
- Storage policy
- no persistence — fetched on every request
- SHA-256 attestation
22c8d2c7eea273d55bcc832ff9aade05abca12462ed8e8134e8d9636b5363d52· deterministic hash of source snapshot- Open data licence
- CC0 / public domain
§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more
HL PREDGermany94.0¢HL PREDSpain89.5¢HL PREDUruguay66.9¢POLYMARKETWill Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?20¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$63,946.5HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,661.15HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$60.02
Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Netherlands vs. Japan - Exact Score
Market depth
▸ live order book · Polymarket YESDepth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
0.095000
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
1052.6bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.469
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.062
bid-heavy top-of-book
Slippage scenarios
▸ live book walk · Polymarket YESSimulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-fifwc-nld-jpn-2026-06-14-exact-score-0-1/slippage?size=10000&side=buy
| Side | Notional | Avg fill | Slippage | Worst fill | Levels | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUY | $1.00K | 0.101299 | 663.05bp | 0.110000 | 2 | FILLED |
| BUY | $10.00K | 0.319415 | 23622.66bp | 0.800000 | 28 | FILLED |
| BUY | $100.00K | 0.645781 | 57976.93bp | 0.990000 | 39 | PARTIAL |
| SELL | $1.00K | 0.074391 | 2169.38bp | 0.070000 | 3 | FILLED |
| SELL | $10.00K | 0.062725 | 3397.39bp | 0.010000 | 8 | PARTIAL |
| SELL | $100.00K | 0.062725 | 3397.39bp | 0.010000 | 8 | PARTIAL |
Risk metrics
▸ sovereign store · 289 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75MRealized vol (annualised)
1844.31%
σ per bar = 0.013929
Mean return (annualised)
143893.67%
μ per bar = 0.000821
Sharpe (rf=0)
78.02
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
0.00%
peak 0.07 → trough 0.07 over 0 bars
/api/asset/pm-fifwc-nld-jpn-2026-06-14-exact-score-0-1/risk · same metrics, JSON