POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · NETHERLANDS VS. JAPAN - EXACT SCORE

Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 3 Japan?

YES · live
1.3¢
NO · live
98.8¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · fifwc-nld-jpn-2026-06-14-exact-score-1-3 · fresh · feed 0s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
107.56%
max drawdown
54.55%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
7.92%
RMS drawdown
pain index
5.24%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
15.33%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.85
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.85
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
368
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-fifwc-nld-jpn-2026-06-14-exact-score-1-3/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH22ms⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
1.3¢
NO · live
98.8¢
YES price · live 24h
n=25 · μ=0.0259 · σ=0.0114 · range [0.0090, 0.0505] · R²=0.525▼ FALLING -71.59%σ EXTREME 43.79%LAST 0.01250.05050.04010.02980.01940.0090μ = 0.0259max 0.0505min 0.0090dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.53μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 ticks · last 1.25¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 1.3%NO 98.8%NO98.8%98.75¢ · odds 1/1.01
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.097 / 1.00 bits (10%) · informative — one side favoured
YES
1.3%1.3¢80.00×▬ +0.00pp
NO
98.8%98.8¢1.01×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=24 · Σ=1,175 · μ=49.0 · σ=59.7 · CV=1.22BURSTYcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=1404998146195μ = 4919550%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 1175bp moved · peak 195bp · n=24 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
22ms
▲YES mid
1.25¢ (1.25%)
▼NO mid
98.75¢ (98.75%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$37.6k
≋liquidity $
$26.4k
◳history points
25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.0259 · σ=0.0114 · range [0.0090, 0.0505] · R²=0.525▼ FALLING -71.59%σ EXTREME 43.79%LAST 0.01250.05050.04010.02980.01940.0090μ = 0.0259max 0.0505min 0.0090dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.53μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 1.25¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.9741 · σ=0.0114 · range [0.9495, 0.9910] · R²=0.525▲ RISING +3.29%σ NORMAL 1.17%LAST 0.98750.99100.98060.97030.95990.9495μ = 0.9741max 0.9910min 0.9495dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.53μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 98.75¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=24 · 10 bins · μ=-0.0010 · σ=0.0071 · skew=-1.01 (left-skewed) · kurt=0.54 (mesokurtic)1186302-1.80ppbin -1.80pp · n=2 · 18.2% peakbin -1.80pp · n=2 · 18.2% peak-1.49pp1-1.18ppbin -1.18pp · n=1 · 9.1% peakbin -1.18pp · n=1 · 9.1% peak2-0.87ppbin -0.87pp · n=2 · 18.2% peakbin -0.87pp · n=2 · 18.2% peak1-0.55ppbin -0.55pp · n=1 · 9.1% peakbin -0.55pp · n=1 · 9.1% peak-0.25pp110.07ppbin 0.07pp · n=11 · 100.0% peakbin 0.07pp · n=11 · 100.0% peak50.38ppbin 0.38pp · n=5 · 45.5% peakbin 0.38pp · n=5 · 45.5% peak0.69pp21.00ppbin 1.00pp · n=2 · 18.2% peakbin 1.00pp · n=2 · 18.2% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-0.89 · kurt=0.72 · near 14 / mid 10 / far 0 · OLS slope=0.95 intercept=-0.00APPROXIMATELY NORMALUPPER TAIL NORMALMILDLY HEAVY LOWER-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25RIGHT-SKEWED (G₁=0.57)
μ MEAN2.59¢95% CI: [2.15¢, 3.04¢]
σ STD DEV1.14ppσ² = 1.290 · CV = 43.79%
med MEDIAN2.45¢Q₁ 2.10¢ · Q₃ 2.85¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 4.15pp · IQR 0.75pp (1.349σ→1.53pp)
min 0.90¢Q₁ 2.10¢med 2.45¢Q₃ 2.85¢max 5.05¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.572right-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.402mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.13
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 2.04
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.65
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit root
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.099within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.152lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.806strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-5.044significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.806
H = 0.806STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.099k=2-0.152k=3-0.237k=4-0.001k=5-0.0240+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=5.04)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit rootfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.71very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=5.04)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID2322440
SLUGfifwc-nld-jpn-2026-06-14-exact-score-1-3
CATEGORYNetherlands vs. Japan - Exact Score
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS NO (99¢)
PRIMARY · YES1.25¢implied prob 1.25% · decimal odds 80.00×
COUNTER · NO98.75¢implied prob 98.75% · decimal odds 1.01×
1.25¢
98.75¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYACTIVE
24H VOLUME37.56k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY26.40k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS NO (99¢)|primary − counter| = 0.975 · entropy 0.097 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHACTIVE100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 1.3%NO 98.8%YES p̂1.3%H = 0.097 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES80.00×(1¢)NO1.01×(99¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.097 bits (10% of max) · informative — one side strongly favoured
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§8 · Time decay & θ projection

Time decay & theta projection
⏱ URGENCY · VERY HIGHresolves 2026-06-14 20:00 UTC
0days
03hrs
03min
3.1 hours·θ = 5.565 pp/day
YES →$1.00(P = 1.3%)
NO →$0.00(P = 98.8%)
current: $0.0125 · expected return per side: $0.99 on YES hit · $0.01 on NO hit
0%25%50%75%100%YES $1NO $0NOW+1.5hRESOLVESP projection · σ=1.14% · path funnel to settle at YES=1 or NO=0
Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 5.565 pp/day
now3.05h left
5.565 pp/day×1.00
−25%2.29h left
6.426 pp/day×1.15
−50%1.53h left
7.870 pp/day×1.41
−75%0.76h left
11.130 pp/day×2.00
−90%0.31h left
17.597 pp/day×3.16
θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 1.15% · worst -1.95% · typical |Δ| 0.49%MILD BEARISH -3.15%BEST+1.15%3hWORST-1.95%14hTYPICAL |Δ|0.49%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-3.15%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 1down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.28% · Σ -1.95%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.19% · Σ -1.55%US · 16-24 UTCμ +0.20% · Σ +1.60%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -3.15%+0.65%-3.50%0.35% · 1h0.35% · 1h0.35%1h-0.85% · 2h-0.85% · 2h-0.85%2h1.15% · 3h1.15% · 3h1.15%3h★ BEST-0.70% · 4h-0.70% · 4h-0.70%4h-1.90% · 5h-1.90% · 5h-1.90%5h0.00% · 6h0.00% · 6h·6h0.00% · 7h0.00% · 7h·7h0.00% · 8h0.00% · 8h·8h0.00% · 9h0.00% · 9h·9h0.00% · 10h0.00% · 10h·10h0.35% · 11h0.35% · 11h0.35%11h0.05% · 12h0.05% · 12h0.05%12h0.05% · 13h0.05% · 13h0.05%13h-1.95% · 14h-1.95% · 14h-1.95%14h▼ WORST-0.05% · 15h-0.05% · 15h-0.05%15h0.05% · 16h0.05% · 16h0.05%16h1.15% · 17h1.15% · 17h1.15%17h0.10% · 18h0.10% · 18h0.10%18h0.25% · 19h0.25% · 19h0.25%19h-0.75% · 20h-0.75% · 20h-0.75%20h0.20% · 21h0.20% · 21h0.20%21h0.35% · 22h0.35% · 22h0.35%22h0.25% · 23h0.25% · 23h0.25%23h-1.25% · 24h-1.25% · 24h-1.25%24hTIME PATTERNUS-led (+1.60%)RUNSup max 4 · down max 2BREADTH50% up · 29% down · 21% flat
12 up bars · 7 down · best 1.15% · worst -1.95% · typical |Δ| 0.490%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS WITH MODERATE DD (-3.17%)FINAL-3.17%MAX DD-4.10%RECOVERYONGOING · 21 barsMAX RUN-UP+0.64%UNDERWATER22/25 (88%)STREAK↘ 1EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9683 · peak 1.0064 · range [0.9651, 1.0064]1.00640.9651break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0064UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -4.10% · moderate0%-4.10%▼ TROUGH -4.10%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 2 total#1 -4.10%bar 5-25 · 21 bars · ONGOING#2 -0.85%bar 3-3 · 1 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -4.10%)RECOVERYongoing · 21 barsTIME UNDER WATER88% of session · 22/25 bars
final equity 0.9683 (-3.17%) · max DD -4.10% · time-under-water 22/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +7 / −12 (37% positive) · μ=-4.39 · σ=31.60MIXED EDGELAST -22.03 (-0.56σ vs μ)52.5926.300.00-26.30-52.59μ = -4.39-28.66-28.66-34.97-34.97-22.46-22.46-52.59-52.59-38.21-38.2138.2138.2144.4944.4951.2651.26-27.75-27.75-28.77-28.77-27.73-27.73-10.86-10.86-10.07-10.07-6.90-6.9019.1419.1425.7625.7633.4433.4415.2815.28-22.03-22.03v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -22.032 · range [-52.59, 51.26] · μ -4.390 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=66.6118 · σ=29.1040 · range [12.8160, 99.3495] · R²=0.028▼ FALLING -36.63%σ EXTREME 43.69%LAST 62.953799.349577.716256.082834.449412.8160μ = 66.6118max 99.3495min 12.8160dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.03μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 62.95% · range [12.82%, 99.35%] · μ 66.61% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +3 / −16 (16% positive) · μ=-0.092 · σ=0.104MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.225 (-1.28σ vs μ)0.2850.1420.000-0.142-0.285μ = -0.092-0.285-0.285-0.219-0.219-0.032-0.0320.1070.107-0.033-0.033-0.033-0.033-0.105-0.105-0.167-0.167-0.008-0.008-0.123-0.123-0.146-0.146-0.035-0.0350.0140.0140.0740.074-0.108-0.108-0.160-0.160-0.071-0.071-0.195-0.195-0.225-0.225v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.225 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
5.0280
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0809
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
2.6083
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7624
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.9226
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3321
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
0.0804
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.9359
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (10 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.6362
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0193
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-0.7223
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4701
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.780 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=6.43e-5 · top T=4.80h (26.5%) · top-3 cover 61.5%2 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)2.0e-41.5e-41.0e-45.1e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 1.89e-5 · 2.4% energyperiod 24.0 · power 1.89e-5 · 2.4% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.40e-5 · 3.1% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.40e-5 · 3.1% energyperiod 8.0 · power 8.00e-5 · 10.4% energyperiod 8.0 · power 8.00e-5 · 10.4% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.90e-5 · 2.5% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.90e-5 · 2.5% energyperiod 4.8 · power 2.05e-4 · 26.5% energyperiod 4.8 · power 2.05e-4 · 26.5% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.86e-5 · 2.4% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.86e-5 · 2.4% energyperiod 3.4 · power 9.23e-6 · 1.2% energyperiod 3.4 · power 9.23e-6 · 1.2% energyperiod 3.0 · power 6.59e-5 · 8.5% energyperiod 3.0 · power 6.59e-5 · 8.5% energyperiod 2.7 · power 2.91e-5 · 3.8% energyperiod 2.7 · power 2.91e-5 · 3.8% energyperiod 2.4 · power 7.67e-5 · 9.9% energyperiod 2.4 · power 7.67e-5 · 9.9% energyperiod 2.2 · power 3.58e-5 · 4.6% energyperiod 2.2 · power 3.58e-5 · 4.6% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.90e-4 · 24.6% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.90e-4 · 24.6% energy50% by T=3.0h#1 dominantT=4.80h#2T=2.00h#3T=8.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 4.80h (freq 0.208) · concentrates 26.5% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 7.716e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (368 bars · effective 1753005 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 0.3 d · σ/bar 0.081pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 0.20ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0123 · n = 368✓ n = 368
μ per bar
-0.001pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.081pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
0.40pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move0d
0.20pp
σ × √6
Terminal variancebinary
0.0123
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
1.3¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 0.13pp · ES₉₅ 0.17pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift -0.001pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.25pp · unique ratio 0.02✓ n = 368
VaR 95%
0.13pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
0.17pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
54.5pp
peak 2.8¢ → trough 1.3¢
Median step
0.25pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
1.3%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
80.000
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+7900
$100 wins $7900
FractionalUK
79.00 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$7900.00
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 1.3%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.097 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.097 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
6.32 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.02 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
34378132248230891083307008825454261497639943267735309453153912082499535056242
NO token ID
28428642088842579213589106379235127206244344755819183293510841589664260893168
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 16:56:58 UTC
Snapshot age
22ms
History points
25 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-14 16:56:58 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
91739aa15d7d9a557fa23c84f799aa01b950dca26ff1d04c507e46ea0fe34725 · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany94.0¢HL PREDSpain89.5¢HL PREDUruguay66.9¢POLYMARKETWill Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?21¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$63,941HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,660.8HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$60.04

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Netherlands vs. Japan - Exact Score

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
0.012500
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
800.0bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.978
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.075
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-fifwc-nld-jpn-2026-06-14-exact-score-1-3/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.05320332562.41bp0.09000023FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.280691214552.42bp0.96000049FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.777772612217.35bp0.97000051FILLED
SELL$1.00K0.0033737301.36bp0.0010009PARTIAL
SELL$10.00K0.0033737301.36bp0.0010009PARTIAL
SELL$100.00K0.0033737301.36bp0.0010009PARTIAL

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 368 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75M
Realized vol (annualised)
5753.68%
σ per bar = 0.043456
Mean return (annualised)
-87087.37%
μ per bar = -0.000497
Sharpe (rf=0)
-15.14
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
54.55%
peak 0.03 → trough 0.01 over 134 bars

/api/asset/pm-fifwc-nld-jpn-2026-06-14-exact-score-1-3/risk · same metrics, JSON