POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · NETHERLANDS VS. JAPAN - EXACT SCORE

Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan?

YES · live
12.5¢
NO · live
87.5¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · fifwc-nld-jpn-2026-06-14-exact-score-2-1 · fresh · feed 0s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
52.93%
max drawdown
4.55%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
1.63%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.61%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
4.55%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
2.00
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
2.00
upside/downside
roll spread
1.9 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
1408
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-fifwc-nld-jpn-2026-06-14-exact-score-2-1/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH14ms⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
12.5¢
NO · live
87.5¢
YES price · live 24h
n=25 · μ=0.1136 · σ=0.0062 · range [0.1050, 0.1350] · R²=0.063▲ RISING +17.39%σ HIGH 5.47%LAST 0.13500.13500.12750.12000.11250.1050μ = 0.1136max 0.1350min 0.1050dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.06μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 ticks · last 13.50¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 12.5%NO 87.5%NO87.5%87.50¢ · odds 1/1.14
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.544 / 1.00 bits (54%) · moderate uncertainty
YES
12.5%12.5¢8.00×▬ +0.00pp
NO
87.5%87.5¢1.14×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=24 · Σ=600 · μ=25.0 · σ=36.1 · CV=1.44BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=180255075100μ = 2510050%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 600bp moved · peak 100bp · n=24 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
14ms
▲YES mid
12.50¢ (12.50%)
▼NO mid
87.50¢ (87.50%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$105.7k
≋liquidity $
$38.6k
◳history points
25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.1136 · σ=0.0062 · range [0.1050, 0.1350] · R²=0.063▲ RISING +17.39%σ HIGH 5.47%LAST 0.13500.13500.12750.12000.11250.1050μ = 0.1136max 0.1350min 0.1050dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.06μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 13.50¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.8864 · σ=0.0062 · range [0.8650, 0.8950] · R²=0.063▼ FALLING -2.26%σ LOW 0.70%LAST 0.86500.89500.88750.88000.87250.8650μ = 0.8864max 0.8950min 0.8650dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.06μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 86.50¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=24 · 10 bins · μ=0.0014 · σ=0.0039 · skew=-0.43 (symmetric) · kurt=1.16 (leptokurtic (fat tails))15118401-0.90ppbin -0.90pp · n=1 · 6.7% peakbin -0.90pp · n=1 · 6.7% peak-0.70pp2-0.50ppbin -0.50pp · n=2 · 13.3% peakbin -0.50pp · n=2 · 13.3% peak-0.30pp-0.10pp150.10ppbin 0.10pp · n=15 · 100.0% peakbin 0.10pp · n=15 · 100.0% peak0.30pp40.50ppbin 0.50pp · n=4 · 26.7% peakbin 0.50pp · n=4 · 26.7% peak0.70pp20.90ppbin 0.90pp · n=2 · 13.3% peakbin 0.90pp · n=2 · 13.3% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=0.08 · kurt=1.02 · near 13 / mid 11 / far 0 · OLS slope=0.93 intercept=-0.00APPROXIMATELY NORMALUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25LEPTOKURTIC · FAT TAILS (G₂=3.47)
μ MEAN11.36¢95% CI: [11.12¢, 11.60¢]
σ STD DEV0.62ppσ² = 0.386 · CV = 5.47%
med MEDIAN11.50¢Q₁ 11.00¢ · Q₃ 11.50¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 3.00pp · IQR 0.50pp (1.349σ→0.84pp)
min 10.50¢Q₁ 11.00¢med 11.50¢Q₃ 11.50¢max 13.50¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁1.641right-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂3.474leptokurtic · fat tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ < med · left-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.23
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 1.68
range ↔ σwide tails (range > 4σ)range / σ = 4.83
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit root
ρ(1) AUTOCORR+0.037within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.061lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.701strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT+1.242fails 5% test
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.701
H = 0.701STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1+0.037k=2-0.061k=3+0.120k=4-0.064k=5+0.2800+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]NOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=1.24)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit rootfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.44high · clear structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCENOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=1.24)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID2322438
SLUGfifwc-nld-jpn-2026-06-14-exact-score-2-1
CATEGORYNetherlands vs. Japan - Exact Score
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS NO (88¢)
PRIMARY · YES12.50¢implied prob 12.50% · decimal odds 8.00×
COUNTER · NO87.50¢implied prob 87.50% · decimal odds 1.14×
12.50¢
87.50¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYDEEP
24H VOLUME105.73k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY38.58k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS NO (88¢)|primary − counter| = 0.750 · entropy 0.544 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHDEEP100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 12.5%NO 87.5%YES p̂12.5%H = 0.544 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES8.00×(13¢)NO1.14×(88¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.544 bits (54% of max) · moderate uncertainty
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§8 · Time decay & θ projection

Time decay & theta projection
⏱ URGENCY · VERY HIGHresolves 2026-06-14 20:00 UTC
0days
03hrs
44min
3.7 hours·θ = 3.043 pp/day
YES →$1.00(P = 12.5%)
NO →$0.00(P = 87.5%)
current: $0.1250 · expected return per side: $0.88 on YES hit · $0.13 on NO hit
0%25%50%75%100%YES $1NO $0NOW+1.9hRESOLVESP projection · σ=0.62% · path funnel to settle at YES=1 or NO=0
Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 3.043 pp/day
now3.74h left
3.043 pp/day×1.00
−25%2.81h left
3.514 pp/day×1.15
−50%1.87h left
4.303 pp/day×1.41
−75%0.94h left
6.086 pp/day×2.00
−90%0.37h left
9.623 pp/day×3.16
θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 1.00% · worst -1.00% · typical |Δ| 0.25%MILD BULLISH +2.00%BEST+1.00%24hWORST-1.00%7hTYPICAL |Δ|0.25%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+2.00%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↗ 2up-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.14% · Σ -1.00%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.06% · Σ +0.50%US · 16-24 UTCμ +0.19% · Σ +1.50%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +2.00%+2.00%-1.00%0.00% · 1h0.00% · 1h·1h0.00% · 2h0.00% · 2h·2h0.50% · 3h0.50% · 3h0.50%3h-0.50% · 4h-0.50% · 4h-0.50%4h0.00% · 5h0.00% · 5h·5h0.00% · 6h0.00% · 6h·6h-1.00% · 7h-1.00% · 7h-1.00%7h▼ WORST0.50% · 8h0.50% · 8h0.50%8h0.00% · 9h0.00% · 9h·9h0.00% · 10h0.00% · 10h·10h0.00% · 11h0.00% · 11h·11h0.00% · 12h0.00% · 12h·12h0.00% · 13h0.00% · 13h·13h0.00% · 14h0.00% · 14h·14h0.00% · 15h0.00% · 15h·15h0.00% · 16h0.00% · 16h·16h-0.50% · 17h-0.50% · 17h-0.50%17h0.50% · 18h0.50% · 18h0.50%18h0.50% · 19h0.50% · 19h0.50%19h0.00% · 20h0.00% · 20h·20h0.00% · 21h0.00% · 21h·21h0.00% · 22h0.00% · 22h·22h1.00% · 23h1.00% · 23h1.00%23h1.00% · 24h1.00% · 24h1.00%24h★ BESTTIME PATTERNUS-led (+1.50%)RUNSup max 2 · down max 1BREADTH25% up · 13% down · 63% flat
6 up bars · 3 down · best 1.00% · worst -1.00% · typical |Δ| 0.250%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsPROFITABLE +2.00%FINAL+2.00%MAX DD-1.50%RECOVERYFULLY RECOVEREDMAX RUN-UP+2.00%UNDERWATER19/25 (76%)STREAK↗ 2EQUITY CURVE · end 1.0200 · peak 1.0200 · range [0.9900, 1.0200]1.02000.9900break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0200UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -1.50% · moderate0%-1.50%▼ TROUGH -1.50%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 1 total#1 -1.50%bar 5-23 · 19 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -1.50%)RECOVERYfully recoveredTIME UNDER WATER76% of session · 19/25 bars
final equity 1.0200 (2.00%) · max DD -1.50% · time-under-water 19/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +7 / −7 (37% positive) · μ=6.17 · σ=32.32MIXED EDGELAST 79.33 (+2.26σ vs μ)79.3339.660.00-39.66-79.33μ = 6.170.000.00-30.21-30.21-13.34-13.34-30.21-30.21-15.87-15.87-15.87-15.87-15.87-15.8738.2138.210.000.000.000.000.000.00-38.21-38.210.000.0020.7220.7220.7220.7220.7220.7220.7220.7276.4276.4279.3379.33v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 79.329 · range [-38.21, 79.33] · μ 6.173 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=32.2075 · σ=17.2077 · range [0.0000, 54.7083] · R²=0.029▲ RISING +55.46%σ EXTREME 53.43%LAST 46.010954.708341.031227.354213.67710.0000μ = 32.2075max 54.7083min 0.0000dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.03μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 46.01% · range [0.00%, 54.71%] · μ 32.21% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +1 / −15 (5% positive) · μ=-0.185 · σ=0.244MEAN-REVERSIONLAST 0.339 (+2.14σ vs μ)0.5160.2580.000-0.258-0.516μ = -0.185-0.500-0.500-0.208-0.208-0.516-0.516-0.458-0.458-0.454-0.454-0.454-0.454-0.385-0.385-0.033-0.0330.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000-0.033-0.033-0.500-0.500-0.010-0.010-0.069-0.069-0.069-0.069-0.127-0.127-0.033-0.0330.3390.339v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 0.339 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
ALL TESTS PASS · data behaves as nominal0 reject·6 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
2.4761
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2900
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
3.2826
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6591
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
0.2218
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.9743
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
0.0000
p-VALUE (log scale)
1.0000
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (5 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.2550
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2608
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-0.9078
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3640
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.724 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=1.82e-5 · top T=4.80h (18.6%) · top-3 cover 50.5%2 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)4.1e-53.1e-52.0e-51.0e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 3.06e-5 · 14.0% energyperiod 24.0 · power 3.06e-5 · 14.0% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.39e-5 · 10.9% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.39e-5 · 10.9% energyperiod 8.0 · power 6.71e-6 · 3.1% energyperiod 8.0 · power 6.71e-6 · 3.1% energyperiod 6.0 · power 4.17e-6 · 1.9% energyperiod 6.0 · power 4.17e-6 · 1.9% energyperiod 4.8 · power 4.08e-5 · 18.6% energyperiod 4.8 · power 4.08e-5 · 18.6% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.04e-5 · 4.8% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.04e-5 · 4.8% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.23e-5 · 5.6% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.23e-5 · 5.6% energyperiod 3.0 · power 2.92e-5 · 13.3% energyperiod 3.0 · power 2.92e-5 · 13.3% energyperiod 2.7 · power 3.91e-5 · 17.9% energyperiod 2.7 · power 3.91e-5 · 17.9% energyperiod 2.4 · power 9.45e-6 · 4.3% energyperiod 2.4 · power 9.45e-6 · 4.3% energyperiod 2.2 · power 8.02e-6 · 3.7% energyperiod 2.2 · power 8.02e-6 · 3.7% energyperiod 2.0 · power 4.17e-6 · 1.9% energyperiod 2.0 · power 4.17e-6 · 1.9% energy50% by T=4.0h#1 dominantT=4.80h#2T=2.67h#3T=24.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 4.80h (freq 0.208) · concentrates 18.6% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 2.188e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (1408 bars · effective 1753005 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 0.3 d · σ/bar 0.040pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 0.10ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.1094 · n = 1408✓ n = 1408
μ per bar
+0.001pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.040pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
0.20pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move0d
0.10pp
σ × √6
Terminal variancebinary
0.1094
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
12.5¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 0.06pp · ES₉₅ 0.08pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift +0.001pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.50pp · unique ratio 0.00✓ n = 1408
VaR 95%
0.06pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
0.08pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
4.5pp
peak 11.0¢ → trough 10.5¢
Median step
0.50pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
12.5%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
8.000
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+700
$100 wins $700
FractionalUK
7.00 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$700.00
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 12.5%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.544 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.544 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
3.00 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.19 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
46528652201458720316261266143795121195311289833064092671587402972994824243184
NO token ID
74867251211724159779752929488543154593159520264655041703145750591198786954891
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 16:15:27 UTC
Snapshot age
14ms
History points
25 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-14 16:15:27 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
630e0ede8c0c64fa4b63fee6a8df7961a1b8432a438b2934d2eecde793b0610e · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany94.5¢HL PREDSpain89.7¢HL PREDUruguay66.9¢POLYMARKETWill Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?1¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$64,078.5HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,664.45HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$60.32

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Netherlands vs. Japan - Exact Score

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
0.135000
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
740.7bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.668
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.448
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-fifwc-nld-jpn-2026-06-14-exact-score-2-1/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.140000370.37bp0.1400001FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.2551378899.06bp0.71000015FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.59599634147.82bp0.99000031PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.1116701728.13bp0.1000004FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.0891033399.79bp0.01000011PARTIAL
SELL$100.00K0.0891033399.79bp0.01000011PARTIAL

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 1,408 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75M
Realized vol (annualised)
470.05%
σ per bar = 0.003550
Mean return (annualised)
15926.98%
μ per bar = 0.000091
Sharpe (rf=0)
33.88
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
4.55%
peak 0.11 → trough 0.10 over 200 bars

/api/asset/pm-fifwc-nld-jpn-2026-06-14-exact-score-2-1/risk · same metrics, JSON