POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · NETHERLANDS VS. JAPAN - EXACT SCORE

Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 3 Japan?

YES · live
1.9¢
NO · live
98.0¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · fifwc-nld-jpn-2026-06-14-exact-score-2-3 · fresh · feed 0s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
39.74%
max drawdown
25.00%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
3.69%
RMS drawdown
pain index
1.10%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.02%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
11.93%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
1.00
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.00
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
368
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-fifwc-nld-jpn-2026-06-14-exact-score-2-3/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH8ms⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
1.9¢
NO · live
98.0¢
YES price · live 24h
n=25 · μ=0.0200 · σ=0.0064 · range [0.0085, 0.0290] · R²=0.049▼ FALLING -9.30%σ EXTREME 32.17%LAST 0.01950.02900.02390.01880.01360.0085μ = 0.0200max 0.0290min 0.0085dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.05μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 ticks · last 1.95¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 1.9%NO 98.0%NO98.0%98.05¢ · odds 1/1.02
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.139 / 1.00 bits (14%) · informative — one side favoured
YES
1.9%1.9¢51.28×▬ +0.00pp
NO
98.0%98.0¢1.02×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=24 · Σ=790 · μ=32.9 · σ=42.1 · CV=1.28BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=1404488131175μ = 3317550%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 790bp moved · peak 175bp · n=24 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
8ms
▲YES mid
1.95¢ (1.95%)
▼NO mid
98.05¢ (98.05%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$40.7k
≋liquidity $
$22.4k
◳history points
25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.0200 · σ=0.0064 · range [0.0085, 0.0290] · R²=0.049▼ FALLING -9.30%σ EXTREME 32.17%LAST 0.01950.02900.02390.01880.01360.0085μ = 0.0200max 0.0290min 0.0085dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.05μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 1.95¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.9800 · σ=0.0064 · range [0.9710, 0.9915] · R²=0.049▲ RISING +0.20%σ LOW 0.66%LAST 0.98050.99150.98640.98120.97610.9710μ = 0.9800max 0.9915min 0.9710dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.05μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 98.05¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=24 · 10 bins · μ=-0.0000 · σ=0.0050 · skew=0.87 (right-skewed) · kurt=2.44 (leptokurtic (fat tails))975202-0.86ppbin -0.86pp · n=2 · 22.2% peakbin -0.86pp · n=2 · 22.2% peak3-0.59ppbin -0.59pp · n=3 · 33.3% peakbin -0.59pp · n=3 · 33.3% peak1-0.31ppbin -0.31pp · n=1 · 11.1% peakbin -0.31pp · n=1 · 11.1% peak9-0.04ppbin -0.04pp · n=9 · 100.0% peakbin -0.04pp · n=9 · 100.0% peak60.24ppbin 0.24pp · n=6 · 66.7% peakbin 0.24pp · n=6 · 66.7% peak20.51ppbin 0.51pp · n=2 · 22.2% peakbin 0.51pp · n=2 · 22.2% peak0.79pp1.06pp1.34pp11.61ppbin 1.61pp · n=1 · 11.1% peakbin 1.61pp · n=1 · 11.1% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=1.02 · kurt=3.33 · near 16 / mid 7 / far 1 · OLS slope=0.95 intercept=-0.00LEPTOKURTIC — FAT TAILSUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25LEFT-SKEWED (G₁=-0.66)
μ MEAN2.00¢95% CI: [1.75¢, 2.25¢]
σ STD DEV0.64ppσ² = 0.413 · CV = 32.17%
med MEDIAN2.20¢Q₁ 1.75¢ · Q₃ 2.40¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 2.05pp · IQR 0.65pp (1.349σ→0.87pp)
min 0.85¢Q₁ 1.75¢med 2.20¢Q₃ 2.40¢max 2.90¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.657left-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.836mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ < med · left-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.31
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 1.33
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.19
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MARTINGALE · UNPREDICTABLE
ρ(1) AUTOCORR+0.003within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.018lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.926strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT+1.094fails 5% test
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.926
H = 0.926STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1+0.003k=2-0.018k=3-0.114k=4-0.056k=5-0.2850+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]NOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=1.09)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMARTINGALE · UNPREDICTABLEfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.86very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCENOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=1.09)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID2322443
SLUGfifwc-nld-jpn-2026-06-14-exact-score-2-3
CATEGORYNetherlands vs. Japan - Exact Score
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS NO (98¢)
PRIMARY · YES1.95¢implied prob 1.95% · decimal odds 51.28×
COUNTER · NO98.05¢implied prob 98.05% · decimal odds 1.02×
1.95¢
98.05¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYACTIVE
24H VOLUME40.71k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY22.44k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS NO (98¢)|primary − counter| = 0.961 · entropy 0.139 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHACTIVE100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 1.9%NO 98.0%YES p̂1.9%H = 0.139 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES51.28×(2¢)NO1.02×(98¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.139 bits (14% of max) · informative — one side strongly favoured
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§8 · Time decay & θ projection

Time decay & theta projection
⏱ URGENCY · VERY HIGHresolves 2026-06-14 20:00 UTC
0days
03hrs
03min
3.1 hours·θ = 3.148 pp/day
YES →$1.00(P = 1.9%)
NO →$0.00(P = 98.0%)
current: $0.0195 · expected return per side: $0.98 on YES hit · $0.02 on NO hit
0%25%50%75%100%YES $1NO $0NOW+1.5hRESOLVESP projection · σ=0.64% · path funnel to settle at YES=1 or NO=0
Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 3.148 pp/day
now3.05h left
3.148 pp/day×1.00
−25%2.29h left
3.635 pp/day×1.15
−50%1.53h left
4.453 pp/day×1.41
−75%0.76h left
6.297 pp/day×2.00
−90%0.31h left
9.956 pp/day×3.16
θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 1.75% · worst -1.00% · typical |Δ| 0.33%MILD BEARISH -0.20%BEST+1.75%11hWORST-1.00%6hTYPICAL |Δ|0.33%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-0.20%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 1down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.19% · Σ -1.30%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.20% · Σ +1.60%US · 16-24 UTCμ +0.01% · Σ +0.05%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -0.20%+0.75%-1.30%0.10% · 1h0.10% · 1h0.10%1h-0.05% · 2h-0.05% · 2h-0.05%2h0.05% · 3h0.05% · 3h0.05%3h-0.05% · 4h-0.05% · 4h-0.05%4h-0.30% · 5h-0.30% · 5h-0.30%5h-1.00% · 6h-1.00% · 6h-1.00%6h▼ WORST-0.05% · 7h-0.05% · 7h-0.05%7h0.00% · 8h0.00% · 8h·8h0.00% · 9h0.00% · 9h·9h0.25% · 10h0.25% · 10h0.25%10h1.75% · 11h1.75% · 11h1.75%11h★ BEST-0.05% · 12h-0.05% · 12h-0.05%12h0.10% · 13h0.10% · 13h0.10%13h-0.55% · 14h-0.55% · 14h-0.55%14h0.10% · 15h0.10% · 15h0.10%15h-0.05% · 16h-0.05% · 16h-0.05%16h-0.95% · 17h-0.95% · 17h-0.95%17h0.30% · 18h0.30% · 18h0.30%18h0.55% · 19h0.55% · 19h0.55%19h0.10% · 20h0.10% · 20h0.10%20h0.00% · 21h0.00% · 21h·21h-0.45% · 22h-0.45% · 22h-0.45%22h0.55% · 23h0.55% · 23h0.55%23h-0.55% · 24h-0.55% · 24h-0.55%24hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+1.60%)RUNSup max 3 · down max 4BREADTH42% up · 46% down · 13% flat
10 up bars · 11 down · best 1.75% · worst -1.00% · typical |Δ| 0.329%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS · SHALLOW DD (-0.23%)FINAL-0.23%MAX DD-1.45%RECOVERYONGOING · 11 barsMAX RUN-UP+0.73%UNDERWATER21/25 (84%)STREAK↘ 1EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9977 · peak 1.0073 · range [0.9870, 1.0073]1.00730.9870break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0073UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -1.45% · moderate0%-1.45%▼ TROUGH -1.45%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 3 total#1 -1.45%bar 15-25 · 11 bars · ONGOING#2 -1.40%bar 3-11 · 9 bars · recovered#3 -0.05%bar 13-13 · 1 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -1.45%)RECOVERYongoing · 11 barsTIME UNDER WATER84% of session · 21/25 bars
final equity 0.9977 (-0.23%) · max DD -1.45% · time-under-water 21/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +9 / −10 (47% positive) · μ=-6.57 · σ=37.13MIXED EDGELAST 6.61 (+0.35σ vs μ)55.7127.860.00-27.86-55.71μ = -6.57-47.37-47.37-55.53-55.53-52.85-52.85-55.71-55.71-39.30-39.3016.6216.6241.6841.6845.8045.8029.8929.8932.1032.1025.7225.72-51.38-51.38-34.40-34.40-16.81-16.811.521.52-1.53-1.53-12.93-12.9343.0543.056.616.61v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 6.612 · range [-55.71, 45.80] · μ -6.570 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=52.0184 · σ=15.4490 · range [35.6091, 83.4736] · R²=0.000▲ RISING +14.64%σ EXTREME 29.70%LAST 44.165183.473671.507559.541447.575335.6091μ = 52.0184max 83.4736min 35.6091dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.00μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 44.17% · range [35.61%, 83.47%] · μ 52.02% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +5 / −14 (26% positive) · μ=-0.086 · σ=0.186MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.452 (-1.97σ vs μ)0.5620.2810.000-0.281-0.562μ = -0.0860.2230.2230.0030.003-0.004-0.004-0.006-0.0060.1300.1300.1080.108-0.152-0.152-0.180-0.180-0.093-0.093-0.056-0.056-0.054-0.054-0.244-0.244-0.562-0.562-0.131-0.131-0.016-0.016-0.013-0.0130.0000.000-0.129-0.129-0.452-0.452v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.452 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀***

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
24.4630
p-VALUE (log scale)
< 0.0001
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
3.1674
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6768
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-2.1186
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2464
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
1.1328
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2573
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (14 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.1523
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4400
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
0.2282
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.8195
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 1.069 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=3.06e-5 · top T=4.00h (19.1%) · top-3 cover 55.4%BROADBAND · 3 CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (3 bins above 2× noise)7.0e-55.3e-53.5e-51.8e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 1.02e-5 · 2.8% energyperiod 24.0 · power 1.02e-5 · 2.8% energyperiod 12.0 · power 4.83e-5 · 13.2% energyperiod 12.0 · power 4.83e-5 · 13.2% energyperiod 8.0 · power 6.68e-5 · 18.2% energyperiod 8.0 · power 6.68e-5 · 18.2% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.07e-6 · 0.3% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.07e-6 · 0.3% energyperiod 4.8 · power 3.26e-6 · 0.9% energyperiod 4.8 · power 3.26e-6 · 0.9% energyperiod 4.0 · power 7.00e-5 · 19.1% energyperiod 4.0 · power 7.00e-5 · 19.1% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.99e-5 · 5.4% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.99e-5 · 5.4% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.11e-5 · 3.0% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.11e-5 · 3.0% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.74e-5 · 4.7% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.74e-5 · 4.7% energyperiod 2.4 · power 4.70e-5 · 12.8% energyperiod 2.4 · power 4.70e-5 · 12.8% energyperiod 2.2 · power 5.39e-6 · 1.5% energyperiod 2.2 · power 5.39e-6 · 1.5% energyperiod 2.0 · power 6.67e-5 · 18.2% energyperiod 2.0 · power 6.67e-5 · 18.2% energy50% by T=4.0h#1 dominantT=4.00h#2T=8.00h#3T=2.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 4.00h (freq 0.250) · concentrates 19.1% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 3.670e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (368 bars · effective 1753005 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 0.3 d · σ/bar 0.030pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 0.07ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0191 · n = 368✓ n = 368
μ per bar
+0.000pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.030pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
0.15pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move0d
0.07pp
σ × √6
Terminal variancebinary
0.0191
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
1.9¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 0.05pp · ES₉₅ 0.06pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift +0.000pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.10pp · unique ratio 0.02✓ n = 368
VaR 95%
0.05pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
0.06pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
25.0pp
peak 2.6¢ → trough 1.9¢
Median step
0.10pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
1.9%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
51.282
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+5028
$100 wins $5028
FractionalUK
50.28 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$5028.21
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 1.9%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.139 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.139 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
5.68 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.03 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
76765579635399540999624751326709497029233300722824124572088953636279825494228
NO token ID
50907088051748616338386655980534516130087283101370203229874156234477745569040
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 16:56:47 UTC
Snapshot age
8ms
History points
25 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-14 16:56:47 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
32e1537fb9c6092fa06ba2fee5282c84c64c117557ec9572509929d721e581bc · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany94.0¢HL PREDSpain89.5¢HL PREDUruguay66.9¢POLYMARKETWill Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?21¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$63,935.5HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,660.75HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$60.05

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Netherlands vs. Japan - Exact Score

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
0.021000
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
1904.8bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.938
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.551
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-fifwc-nld-jpn-2026-06-14-exact-score-2-3/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.07041623531.21bp0.41700027FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.376747169403.21bp0.95000054FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.836959388551.94bp0.97000056FILLED
SELL$1.00K0.0037888196.07bp0.00100011PARTIAL
SELL$10.00K0.0037888196.07bp0.00100011PARTIAL
SELL$100.00K0.0037888196.07bp0.00100011PARTIAL

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 368 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75M
Realized vol (annualised)
1789.25%
σ per bar = 0.013514
Mean return (annualised)
0.00%
μ per bar = 0.000000
Sharpe (rf=0)
0.00
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
25.00%
peak 0.03 → trough 0.02 over 84 bars

/api/asset/pm-fifwc-nld-jpn-2026-06-14-exact-score-2-3/risk · same metrics, JSON