POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · NETHERLANDS VS. JAPAN - EXACT SCORE
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Japan?
5.3¢
94.7¢
▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle
polymarket · fifwc-nld-jpn-2026-06-14-exact-score-3-1 · fresh · feed 0s old24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
69.27%
max drawdown
2.22%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
1.02%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.53%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
2.22%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
13.00
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
13.00
upside/downside
roll spread
14.9 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
520
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API:
/api/m2m/pm-fifwc-nld-jpn-2026-06-14-exact-score-3-1/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH⏱--:--:-- UTCNEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
5.3¢
NO · live
94.7¢
25 ticks · last 5.40¢
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.299 / 1.00 bits (30%) · informative — one side favoured
YES5.3%5.3¢18.87×▬ +0.00pp
NO94.7%94.7¢1.06×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Σ 490bp moved · peak 100bp · n=24 ticks
9ms
5.30¢ (5.30%)
94.70¢ (94.70%)
100.00%
0.000pp
$32.8k
$39.2k
25 ticks (live)
§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 5.40¢
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 94.60¢
§2 · Distribution of Δp
n=24
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.
§3 · Sample moments
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25LEFT-SKEWED (G₁=-0.93)
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOT
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.927left-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.588mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.
§5 · Time-series structure
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MILD PERSISTENCE · ρ(1) 0.26
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]
H = 0.919STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.
§6 · Microstructure
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
TWO-SIDED PRICING
5.30¢
94.70¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TEST
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITY
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.
§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis
FAIR MARKET · no edge
Probability scale (YES)
Implied decimal odds
YES18.87×(5¢)NO1.06×(95¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.299 bits (30% of max) · informative — one side strongly favoured
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.
§8 · Time decay & θ projection
⏱ URGENCY · VERY HIGHresolves 2026-06-14 20:00 UTC
0days
03hrs
03min
YES →$1.00
NO →$0.00
current: $0.0530 · expected return per side: $0.95 on YES hit · $0.05 on NO hit
Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 3.135 pp/day
now3.05h left3.135 pp/day×1.00
−25%2.29h left3.620 pp/day×1.15
−50%1.53h left4.433 pp/day×1.41
−75%0.76h left6.269 pp/day×2.00
−90%0.31h left9.913 pp/day×3.16
θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.
§9 · Hourly return heatmap
5 up bars · 4 down · best 0.50% · worst -1.00% · typical |Δ| 0.204%
§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown
final equity 0.9989 (-0.11%) · max DD -1.99% · time-under-water 20/25 bars
§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)
latest 35.660 · range [-76.42, 38.21] · μ -12.482 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
latest 36.85% · range [0.00%, 52.95%] · μ 27.08% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
latest 0.216 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk
§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
Jarque-Bera
FAIL TO REJECTnsH₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)
STATISTIC
5.4919
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0642
Ljung-Box(h=5)
FAIL TO REJECTnsH₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5
STATISTIC
5.5079
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3571
Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)
FAIL TO REJECTnsH₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)
STATISTIC
-1.3229
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6169
Wald-Wolfowitz runs
FAIL TO REJECTnsH₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random
STATISTIC
-0.3213
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7480
KPSS (μ stationarity)
REJECT H₀*H₀: p IS level-stationary
STATISTIC
0.4634
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0499
Variance ratio q=3
FAIL TO REJECTnsH₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1
STATISTIC
0.6408
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5217
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).
§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)
dominant period ≈ 12.00h (freq 0.083) · concentrates 35.8% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 1.455e-4
▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (520 bars · effective 1753005 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.
§14 · Honest position analytics
A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →
§15 · Horizon returns
Horizon 0.3 d · σ/bar 0.052pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 0.13ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0502 · n = 520✓ n = 520
μ per bar
+0.003pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.052pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
0.26pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move0d
0.13pp
σ × √6
Terminal variancebinary
0.0502
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
5.3¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.
§16 · Tail risk
VaR₉₅ 0.08pp · ES₉₅ 0.10pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift +0.003pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.35pp · unique ratio 0.01✓ n = 520
VaR 95%
0.08pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
0.10pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
2.2pp
peak 4.5¢ → trough 4.4¢
Median step
0.35pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.
§17 · Odds conversion
Implied probabilityP
5.3%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
18.868
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+1787
$100 wins $1787
FractionalUK
17.87 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$1786.79
clean dollar framing
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.
§18 · Binary entropy
Market entropyH(p)
0.299 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.299 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
4.24 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.08 bit
self-information
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.
§19 · Model-dependent surfaces
External model required
The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.
The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.
To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.
§∞ · Provenance & attestation
- Upstream (snapshot)
- gamma-api.polymarket.com
- Upstream (history)
- clob.polymarket.com
- YES token ID
29277971091460387267717283019847655735966031288994227404017426122675354603018- NO token ID
101651071861740321928973813918473744854839140361173745755638831947373945971308- Snapshot fetched
- 2026-06-14 16:56:58 UTC
- Snapshot age
- 9ms
- History points
- 25 CLOB mids
- Page rendered
- 2026-06-14 16:56:58 UTC
- Storage policy
- no persistence — fetched on every request
- SHA-256 attestation
fd6df74a3cc279d1d0e9782bc56e51f654903678a708c39f73620b0f897657fc· deterministic hash of source snapshot- Open data licence
- CC0 / public domain
§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more
HL PREDGermany94.0¢HL PREDSpain89.5¢HL PREDUruguay66.9¢POLYMARKETWill Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?21¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$63,941HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,660.8HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$60.04
Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Netherlands vs. Japan - Exact Score
Market depth
▸ live order book · Polymarket YESDepth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
0.054000
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
1481.5bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.900
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.069
ask-heavy top-of-book
Slippage scenarios
▸ live book walk · Polymarket YESSimulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-fifwc-nld-jpn-2026-06-14-exact-score-3-1/slippage?size=10000&side=buy
| Side | Notional | Avg fill | Slippage | Worst fill | Levels | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUY | $1.00K | 0.072199 | 3370.19bp | 0.080000 | 10 | FILLED |
| BUY | $10.00K | 0.196466 | 26382.53bp | 0.800000 | 34 | FILLED |
| BUY | $100.00K | 0.693994 | 118517.37bp | 0.994000 | 48 | FILLED |
| SELL | $1.00K | 0.025844 | 5214.09bp | 0.001000 | 21 | PARTIAL |
| SELL | $10.00K | 0.025844 | 5214.09bp | 0.001000 | 21 | PARTIAL |
| SELL | $100.00K | 0.025844 | 5214.09bp | 0.001000 | 21 | PARTIAL |
Risk metrics
▸ sovereign store · 520 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75MRealized vol (annualised)
1658.56%
σ per bar = 0.012527
Mean return (annualised)
140153.90%
μ per bar = 0.000800
Sharpe (rf=0)
84.50
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
2.22%
peak 0.04 → trough 0.04 over 33 bars
/api/asset/pm-fifwc-nld-jpn-2026-06-14-exact-score-3-1/risk · same metrics, JSON