POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · NETHERLANDS VS. JAPAN - EXACT SCORE

Exact Score: Any Other Score?

YES · live
8.5¢
NO · live
91.5¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · fifwc-nld-jpn-2026-06-14-exact-score-any-other · fresh · feed 0s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
114.28%
max drawdown
32.00%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
10.59%
RMS drawdown
pain index
6.68%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
28.36%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.11
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.11
upside/downside
roll spread
11.4 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
602
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-fifwc-nld-jpn-2026-06-14-exact-score-any-other/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH4ms⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
8.5¢
NO · live
91.5¢
YES price · live 24h
n=25 · μ=0.1202 · σ=0.0292 · range [0.0700, 0.2450] · R²=0.069▼ FALLING -33.33%σ EXTREME 24.27%LAST 0.07000.24500.20120.15750.11380.0700μ = 0.1202max 0.2450min 0.0700dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.07μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 ticks · last 7.00¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 8.5%NO 91.5%NO91.5%91.50¢ · odds 1/1.09
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.420 / 1.00 bits (42%) · informative — one side favoured
YES
8.5%8.5¢11.76×▬ +0.00pp
NO
91.5%91.5¢1.09×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=24 · Σ=4,350 · μ=181.3 · σ=382.2 · CV=2.11BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=203507001,0501,400μ = 1811,40050%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 4350bp moved · peak 1400bp · n=24 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
4ms
▲YES mid
8.50¢ (8.50%)
▼NO mid
91.50¢ (91.50%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$37.6k
≋liquidity $
$29.4k
◳history points
25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.1202 · σ=0.0292 · range [0.0700, 0.2450] · R²=0.069▼ FALLING -33.33%σ EXTREME 24.27%LAST 0.07000.24500.20120.15750.11380.0700μ = 0.1202max 0.2450min 0.0700dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.07μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 7.00¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.8798 · σ=0.0292 · range [0.7550, 0.9300] · R²=0.069▲ RISING +3.91%σ NORMAL 3.32%LAST 0.93000.93000.88620.84250.79880.7550μ = 0.8798max 0.9300min 0.7550dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.07μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 93.00¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=24 · 10 bins · μ=0.0035 · σ=0.0386 · skew=-0.26 (symmetric) · kurt=6.52 (leptokurtic (fat tails))14117401-12.60ppbin -12.60pp · n=1 · 7.1% peakbin -12.60pp · n=1 · 7.1% peak-9.80pp-7.00pp-4.20pp8-1.40ppbin -1.40pp · n=8 · 57.1% peakbin -1.40pp · n=8 · 57.1% peak141.40ppbin 1.40pp · n=14 · 100.0% peakbin 1.40pp · n=14 · 100.0% peak4.20pp7.00pp9.80pp112.60ppbin 12.60pp · n=1 · 7.1% peakbin 12.60pp · n=1 · 7.1% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=0.09 · kurt=7.76 · near 7 / mid 14 / far 3 · OLS slope=0.78 intercept=-0.00LEPTOKURTIC — FAT TAILSUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25LEPTOKURTIC · FAT TAILS (G₂=10.79)
μ MEAN12.02¢95% CI: [10.88¢, 13.16¢]
σ STD DEV2.92ppσ² = 8.510 · CV = 24.27%
med MEDIAN12.00¢Q₁ 10.50¢ · Q₃ 12.50¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 17.50pp · IQR 2.00pp (1.349σ→3.94pp)
min 7.00¢Q₁ 10.50¢med 12.00¢Q₃ 12.50¢max 24.50¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁2.881right-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂10.790leptokurtic · fat tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ median≈ equal · symmetric|μ−med| / σ = 0.01
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 1.97
range ↔ σwide tails (range > 4σ)range / σ = 6.00
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.47 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.469negative · reversal
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.005lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.698persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-1.307fails 5% test
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]persistent · H = 0.698
H = 0.698PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..51 SIGNIFICANT LAG · k=1
k=1 ★-0.469k=2+0.005k=3+0.005k=4-0.063k=5+0.0500+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]NOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=1.31)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.47 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.86very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCENOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=1.31)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID2322446
SLUGfifwc-nld-jpn-2026-06-14-exact-score-any-other
CATEGORYNetherlands vs. Japan - Exact Score
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS NO (92¢)
PRIMARY · YES8.50¢implied prob 8.50% · decimal odds 11.76×
COUNTER · NO91.50¢implied prob 91.50% · decimal odds 1.09×
8.50¢
91.50¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYACTIVE
24H VOLUME37.63k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY29.44k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS NO (92¢)|primary − counter| = 0.830 · entropy 0.420 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHACTIVE100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 8.5%NO 91.5%YES p̂8.5%H = 0.420 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES11.76×(9¢)NO1.09×(92¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.420 bits (42% of max) · informative — one side strongly favoured
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§8 · Time decay & θ projection

Time decay & theta projection
⏱ URGENCY · VERY HIGHresolves 2026-06-14 20:00 UTC
0days
04hrs
26min
4.4 hours·θ = 14.291 pp/day
YES →$1.00(P = 8.5%)
NO →$0.00(P = 91.5%)
current: $0.0850 · expected return per side: $0.92 on YES hit · $0.09 on NO hit
0%25%50%75%100%YES $1NO $0NOW+2.2hRESOLVESP projection · σ=2.92% · path funnel to settle at YES=1 or NO=0
Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 14.291 pp/day
now4.45h left
14.291 pp/day×1.00
−25%3.34h left
16.502 pp/day×1.15
−50%2.22h left
20.211 pp/day×1.41
−75%1.11h left
28.583 pp/day×2.00
−90%0.44h left
45.193 pp/day×3.16
θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 14.00% · worst -14.00% · typical |Δ| 1.81%BEARISH SESSION -3.50%BEST+14.00%1hWORST-14.00%2hTYPICAL |Δ|1.81%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-3.50%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 2down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +0.21% · Σ +1.50%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.00% · Σ +0.00%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.31% · Σ -2.50%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -3.50%+14.00%-3.50%14.00% · 1h14.00% · 1h14.00%1h★ BEST-14.00% · 2h-14.00% · 2h-14.00%2h▼ WORST0.00% · 3h0.00% · 3h·3h0.00% · 4h0.00% · 4h·4h0.00% · 5h0.00% · 5h·5h1.50% · 6h1.50% · 6h1.50%6h0.00% · 7h0.00% · 7h·7h-0.50% · 8h-0.50% · 8h-0.50%8h1.00% · 9h1.00% · 9h1.00%9h-1.00% · 10h-1.00% · 10h-1.00%10h0.00% · 11h0.00% · 11h·11h1.00% · 12h1.00% · 12h1.00%12h0.50% · 13h0.50% · 13h0.50%13h-0.50% · 14h-0.50% · 14h-0.50%14h-0.50% · 15h-0.50% · 15h-0.50%15h-0.50% · 16h-0.50% · 16h-0.50%16h0.50% · 17h0.50% · 17h0.50%17h0.50% · 18h0.50% · 18h0.50%18h0.00% · 19h0.00% · 19h·19h1.00% · 20h1.00% · 20h1.00%20h-1.50% · 21h-1.50% · 21h-1.50%21h0.00% · 22h0.00% · 22h·22h-2.50% · 23h-2.50% · 23h-2.50%23h-2.50% · 24h-2.50% · 24h-2.50%24hTIME PATTERNAsia-led (+1.50%)RUNSup max 2 · down max 3BREADTH33% up · 38% down · 29% flat
8 up bars · 9 down · best 14.00% · worst -14.00% · typical |Δ| 1.813%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsSEVERE DRAWDOWN -5.44%FINAL-5.44%MAX DD-17.05%RECOVERYONGOING · 23 barsMAX RUN-UP+14.00%UNDERWATER23/25 (92%)STREAK↘ 2EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9456 · peak 1.1400 · range [0.9456, 1.1400]1.14000.9456break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.1400UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -17.05% · severe0%-17.05%▼ TROUGH -17.05%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 1 total#1 -17.05%bar 3-25 · 23 bars · ONGOINGDD SEVERITYsevere (max -17.05%)RECOVERYongoing · 23 barsTIME UNDER WATER92% of session · 23/25 bars
final equity 0.9456 (-5.44%) · max DD -17.05% · time-under-water 23/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +11 / −5 (58% positive) · μ=2.48 · σ=23.78MIXED EDGELAST -58.63 (-2.57σ vs μ)58.6329.310.00-29.31-58.63μ = 2.482.642.64-33.23-33.2322.8322.8341.4441.4416.7616.7616.7616.769.749.7419.1019.1019.1019.10-10.60-10.600.000.0011.7411.740.000.00-15.87-15.8725.7625.760.000.009.069.06-29.55-29.55-58.63-58.63v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -58.626 · range [-58.63, 41.44] · μ 2.477 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=141.3417 · σ=200.1862 · range [46.0109, 830.7039] · R²=0.238▼ FALLING -83.51%σ EXTREME 141.63%LAST 136.9708830.7039634.5307438.3574242.184146.0109μ = 141.3417max 830.7039min 46.0109dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.24μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 136.97% · range [46.01%, 830.70%] · μ 141.34% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +7 / −12 (37% positive) · μ=-0.111 · σ=0.298CLOSE TO MARTINGALELAST 0.108 (+0.74σ vs μ)0.4890.2440.000-0.244-0.489μ = -0.111-0.489-0.489-0.007-0.007-0.119-0.119-0.333-0.333-0.429-0.429-0.333-0.333-0.457-0.457-0.358-0.358-0.258-0.2580.2130.2130.3750.3750.2610.2610.1670.1670.4080.4080.0760.076-0.375-0.375-0.339-0.339-0.216-0.2160.1080.108v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 0.108 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
3 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence3 reject·3 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀***

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
99.2720
p-VALUE (log scale)
< 0.0001
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
6.1686
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2895
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

REJECT H₀***

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-4.8505
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0002
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonestationary · mean-reverting (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
0.2662
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7901
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (10 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.2048
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3484
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

REJECT H₀**

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-2.5916
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0096
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zoneVR 0.211 → mean-reverting
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=1.85e-3 · top T=2.67h (20.4%) · top-3 cover 50.6%2 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)4.5e-33.4e-32.3e-31.1e-30.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 8.25e-5 · 0.4% energyperiod 24.0 · power 8.25e-5 · 0.4% energyperiod 12.0 · power 6.73e-5 · 0.3% energyperiod 12.0 · power 6.73e-5 · 0.3% energyperiod 8.0 · power 8.04e-5 · 0.4% energyperiod 8.0 · power 8.04e-5 · 0.4% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.05e-3 · 4.7% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.05e-3 · 4.7% energyperiod 4.8 · power 8.65e-4 · 3.9% energyperiod 4.8 · power 8.65e-4 · 3.9% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.88e-3 · 8.5% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.88e-3 · 8.5% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.53e-3 · 6.9% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.53e-3 · 6.9% energyperiod 3.0 · power 2.63e-3 · 11.9% energyperiod 3.0 · power 2.63e-3 · 11.9% energyperiod 2.7 · power 4.52e-3 · 20.4% energyperiod 2.7 · power 4.52e-3 · 20.4% energyperiod 2.4 · power 3.77e-3 · 17.0% energyperiod 2.4 · power 3.77e-3 · 17.0% energyperiod 2.2 · power 2.78e-3 · 12.6% energyperiod 2.2 · power 2.78e-3 · 12.6% energyperiod 2.0 · power 2.93e-3 · 13.2% energyperiod 2.0 · power 2.93e-3 · 13.2% energy50% by T=2.7h#1 dominantT=2.67h#2T=2.40h#3T=2.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.67h (freq 0.375) · concentrates 20.4% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 2.218e-2

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (602 bars · effective 1753005 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 0.3 d · σ/bar 0.086pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 0.21ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0778 · n = 602✓ n = 602
μ per bar
-0.007pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.086pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
0.42pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move0d
0.21pp
σ × √6
Terminal variancebinary
0.0778
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
8.5¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 0.15pp · ES₉₅ 0.18pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift -0.007pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.50pp · unique ratio 0.01✓ n = 602
VaR 95%
0.15pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
0.18pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
32.0pp
peak 12.5¢ → trough 8.5¢
Median step
0.50pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
8.5%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
11.765
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+1076
$100 wins $1076
FractionalUK
10.76 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$1076.47
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 8.5%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.420 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.420 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
3.56 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.13 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
100131230860218878016741770261871102220406398704050330785658991992701749398342
NO token ID
29639552893463692077085907205856889025995020025561358057659224212366391037345
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 15:33:00 UTC
Snapshot age
4ms
History points
25 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-14 15:33:00 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
5295482f879eb75ea20a5a518e3a3d72351d8ae0595e52146adbd9bcac0615d5 · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany94.3¢HL PREDSpain89.7¢HL PREDUruguay66.7¢POLYMARKETWill Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?1¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$64,012.5HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,662.15HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$60.46

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Netherlands vs. Japan - Exact Score

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
0.070000
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
2857.1bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.663
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.557
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-fifwc-nld-jpn-2026-06-14-exact-score-any-other/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.1067745253.38bp0.1300006FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.27465829236.80bp0.79000022FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.68528387897.52bp0.99000032PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.0389024442.59bp0.0100005PARTIAL
SELL$10.00K0.0389024442.59bp0.0100005PARTIAL
SELL$100.00K0.0389024442.59bp0.0100005PARTIAL

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 602 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75M
Realized vol (annualised)
1106.01%
σ per bar = 0.008353
Mean return (annualised)
-112490.57%
μ per bar = -0.000642
Sharpe (rf=0)
-101.71
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
32.00%
peak 0.13 → trough 0.09 over 597 bars

/api/asset/pm-fifwc-nld-jpn-2026-06-14-exact-score-any-other/risk · same metrics, JSON