POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · NETHERLANDS VS. JAPAN - MORE MARKETS

Spread: Japan (-2.5)

YES · live
2.7¢
NO · live
97.3¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · fifwc-nld-jpn-2026-06-14-spread-away-2pt5 · fresh · feed 0s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
18.13%
max drawdown
8.77%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
5.80%
RMS drawdown
pain index
4.76%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
8.77%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.75
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.75
upside/downside
roll spread
1.9 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
735
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-fifwc-nld-jpn-2026-06-14-spread-away-2pt5/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH14ms⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
2.7¢
NO · live
97.3¢
YES price · live 24h
n=25 · μ=0.0286 · σ=0.0018 · range [0.0260, 0.0320] · R²=0.002▲ RISING +1.89%σ HIGH 6.44%LAST 0.02700.03200.03050.02900.02750.0260μ = 0.0286max 0.0320min 0.0260dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.00μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 ticks · last 2.70¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 2.7%NO 97.3%NO97.3%97.30¢ · odds 1/1.03
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.179 / 1.00 bits (18%) · informative — one side favoured
YES
2.7%2.7¢37.04×▬ +0.00pp
NO
97.3%97.3¢1.03×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=24 · Σ=225 · μ=9.4 · σ=12.5 · CV=1.33BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=14011233445μ = 94550%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 225bp moved · peak 45bp · n=24 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
14ms
▲YES mid
2.70¢ (2.70%)
▼NO mid
97.30¢ (97.30%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$39.5k
≋liquidity $
$59.1k
◳history points
25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.0286 · σ=0.0018 · range [0.0260, 0.0320] · R²=0.002▲ RISING +1.89%σ HIGH 6.44%LAST 0.02700.03200.03050.02900.02750.0260μ = 0.0286max 0.0320min 0.0260dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.00μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 2.70¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.9714 · σ=0.0018 · range [0.9680, 0.9740] · R²=0.002▬ FLATσ LOW 0.19%LAST 0.97300.97400.97250.97100.96950.9680μ = 0.9714max 0.9740min 0.9680dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.00μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 97.30¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=24 · 10 bins · μ=0.0001 · σ=0.0015 · skew=0.78 (right-skewed) · kurt=0.89 (mesokurtic)1296304-0.21ppbin -0.21pp · n=4 · 33.3% peakbin -0.21pp · n=4 · 33.3% peak-0.14pp2-0.07ppbin -0.07pp · n=2 · 16.7% peakbin -0.07pp · n=2 · 16.7% peak12-0.00ppbin -0.00pp · n=12 · 100.0% peakbin -0.00pp · n=12 · 100.0% peak20.07ppbin 0.07pp · n=2 · 16.7% peakbin 0.07pp · n=2 · 16.7% peak10.14ppbin 0.14pp · n=1 · 8.3% peakbin 0.14pp · n=1 · 8.3% peak0.21pp20.28ppbin 0.28pp · n=2 · 16.7% peakbin 0.28pp · n=2 · 16.7% peak0.34pp10.41ppbin 0.41pp · n=1 · 8.3% peakbin 0.41pp · n=1 · 8.3% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=0.81 · kurt=1.44 · near 12 / mid 12 / far 0 · OLS slope=0.95 intercept=-0.00APPROXIMATELY NORMALMILDLY HEAVY UPPERLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25PLATYKURTIC · THIN TAILS (G₂=-1.57)
μ MEAN2.86¢95% CI: [2.79¢, 2.93¢]
σ STD DEV0.18ppσ² = 0.034 · CV = 6.44%
med MEDIAN2.80¢Q₁ 2.65¢ · Q₃ 3.00¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.60pp · IQR 0.35pp (1.349σ→0.25pp)
min 2.60¢Q₁ 2.65¢med 2.80¢Q₃ 3.00¢max 3.20¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.066approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-1.565platykurtic · thin tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.34
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 0.71
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.25
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit root
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.145within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.216lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.683persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT+0.214fails 5% test
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]persistent · H = 0.683
H = 0.683PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.145k=2-0.216k=3+0.008k=4+0.029k=5+0.0260+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]NOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=0.21)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit rootfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.51high · clear structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCENOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=0.21)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID2326744
SLUGfifwc-nld-jpn-2026-06-14-spread-away-2pt5
CATEGORYNetherlands vs. Japan - More Markets
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS NO (97¢)
PRIMARY · YES2.70¢implied prob 2.70% · decimal odds 37.04×
COUNTER · NO97.30¢implied prob 97.30% · decimal odds 1.03×
2.70¢
97.30¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYACTIVE
24H VOLUME39.47k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY59.05k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS NO (97¢)|primary − counter| = 0.946 · entropy 0.179 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHACTIVE100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 2.7%NO 97.3%YES p̂2.7%H = 0.179 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES37.04×(3¢)NO1.03×(97¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.179 bits (18% of max) · informative — one side strongly favoured
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§8 · Time decay & θ projection

Time decay & theta projection
⏱ URGENCY · VERY HIGHresolves 2026-06-14 20:00 UTC
0days
03hrs
03min
3.1 hours·θ = 0.904 pp/day
YES →$1.00(P = 2.7%)
NO →$0.00(P = 97.3%)
current: $0.0270 · expected return per side: $0.97 on YES hit · $0.03 on NO hit
0%25%50%75%100%YES $1NO $0NOW+1.5hRESOLVESP projection · σ=0.18% · path funnel to settle at YES=1 or NO=0
Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 0.904 pp/day
now3.05h left
0.904 pp/day×1.00
−25%2.29h left
1.043 pp/day×1.15
−50%1.53h left
1.278 pp/day×1.41
−75%0.76h left
1.807 pp/day×2.00
−90%0.31h left
2.857 pp/day×3.16
θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 0.45% · worst -0.25% · typical |Δ| 0.09%MILD BULLISH +0.05%BEST+0.45%6hWORST-0.25%13hTYPICAL |Δ|0.09%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+0.05%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↗ 2up-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +0.06% · Σ +0.45%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.01% · Σ -0.10%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.04% · Σ -0.35%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +0.05%+0.55%-0.05%0.00% · 1h0.00% · 1h·1h0.00% · 2h0.00% · 2h·2h0.00% · 3h0.00% · 3h·3h0.00% · 4h0.00% · 4h·4h0.10% · 5h0.10% · 5h0.10%5h0.45% · 6h0.45% · 6h0.45%6h★ BEST-0.10% · 7h-0.10% · 7h-0.10%7h0.00% · 8h0.00% · 8h·8h-0.10% · 9h-0.10% · 9h-0.10%9h0.00% · 10h0.00% · 10h·10h0.00% · 11h0.00% · 11h·11h0.00% · 12h0.00% · 12h·12h-0.25% · 13h-0.25% · 13h-0.25%13h▼ WORST0.25% · 14h0.25% · 14h0.25%14h0.00% · 15h0.00% · 15h·15h0.00% · 16h0.00% · 16h·16h0.00% · 17h0.00% · 17h·17h-0.20% · 18h-0.20% · 18h-0.20%18h0.00% · 19h0.00% · 19h·19h0.25% · 20h0.25% · 20h0.25%20h-0.25% · 21h-0.25% · 21h-0.25%21h-0.20% · 22h-0.20% · 22h-0.20%22h0.05% · 23h0.05% · 23h0.05%23h0.05% · 24h0.05% · 24h0.05%24hTIME PATTERNAsia-led (+0.45%)RUNSup max 2 · down max 2BREADTH25% up · 25% down · 50% flat
6 up bars · 6 down · best 0.45% · worst -0.25% · typical |Δ| 0.094%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsFLAT · NO MATERIAL MOVEMENTFINAL+0.05%MAX DD-0.60%RECOVERYONGOING · 18 barsMAX RUN-UP+0.55%UNDERWATER18/25 (72%)STREAK↗ 2EQUITY CURVE · end 1.0005 · peak 1.0055 · range [0.9995, 1.0055]1.00550.9995break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0055UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -0.60% · shallow0%-0.60%▼ TROUGH -0.60%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 1 total#1 -0.60%bar 8-25 · 18 bars · ONGOINGDD SEVERITYshallow (max -0.60%)RECOVERYongoing · 18 barsTIME UNDER WATER72% of session · 18/25 bars
final equity 1.0005 (0.05%) · max DD -0.60% · time-under-water 18/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +8 / −8 (42% positive) · μ=-1.34 · σ=29.67MIXED EDGELAST -8.50 (-0.24σ vs μ)60.4230.210.00-30.21-60.42μ = -1.3447.6547.6536.1336.1336.1336.1326.5126.5126.5126.5118.9418.94-60.42-60.42-53.49-53.49-9.55-9.550.000.000.000.000.000.00-17.53-17.535.465.465.465.46-17.53-17.53-33.04-33.04-28.23-28.23-8.50-8.50v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -8.502 · range [-60.42, 47.65] · μ -1.343 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=15.6909 · σ=3.6135 · range [4.8332, 19.2762] · R²=0.005▲ RISING +1.91%σ EXTREME 23.03%LAST 17.173219.276215.665412.05478.44404.8332μ = 15.6909max 19.2762min 4.8332dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.00μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 17.17% · range [4.83%, 19.28%] · μ 15.69% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +3 / −16 (16% positive) · μ=-0.233 · σ=0.193MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.135 (+0.50σ vs μ)0.5020.2510.000-0.251-0.502μ = -0.2330.1690.169-0.248-0.248-0.209-0.209-0.140-0.140-0.085-0.085-0.181-0.181-0.333-0.333-0.177-0.177-0.502-0.502-0.500-0.500-0.500-0.500-0.500-0.500-0.349-0.3490.0160.0160.0160.016-0.391-0.391-0.170-0.170-0.201-0.201-0.135-0.135v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.135 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀*

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
7.3712
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0251
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
1.9451
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.8577
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-2.2888
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1827
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
0.0000
p-VALUE (log scale)
1.0000
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (7 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.1845
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3839
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-0.9286
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3531
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.717 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=2.59e-6 · top T=4.80h (23.4%) · top-3 cover 55.7%2 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)7.3e-65.5e-63.6e-61.8e-60.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 1.34e-6 · 4.3% energyperiod 24.0 · power 1.34e-6 · 4.3% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.87e-6 · 6.0% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.87e-6 · 6.0% energyperiod 8.0 · power 8.55e-7 · 2.7% energyperiod 8.0 · power 8.55e-7 · 2.7% energyperiod 6.0 · power 7.92e-7 · 2.5% energyperiod 6.0 · power 7.92e-7 · 2.5% energyperiod 4.8 · power 7.29e-6 · 23.4% energyperiod 4.8 · power 7.29e-6 · 23.4% energyperiod 4.0 · power 8.44e-7 · 2.7% energyperiod 4.0 · power 8.44e-7 · 2.7% energyperiod 3.4 · power 2.52e-6 · 8.1% energyperiod 3.4 · power 2.52e-6 · 8.1% energyperiod 3.0 · power 4.54e-6 · 14.6% energyperiod 3.0 · power 4.54e-6 · 14.6% energyperiod 2.7 · power 4.33e-6 · 13.9% energyperiod 2.7 · power 4.33e-6 · 13.9% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.34e-7 · 0.4% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.34e-7 · 0.4% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.11e-6 · 3.6% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.11e-6 · 3.6% energyperiod 2.0 · power 5.51e-6 · 17.7% energyperiod 2.0 · power 5.51e-6 · 17.7% energy50% by T=3.0h#1 dominantT=4.80h#2T=2.00h#3T=3.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 4.80h (freq 0.208) · concentrates 23.4% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 3.112e-5

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (735 bars · effective 1753103 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 0.3 d · σ/bar 0.014pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 0.03ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0263 · n = 735✓ n = 735
μ per bar
-0.000pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.014pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
0.07pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move0d
0.03pp
σ × √6
Terminal variancebinary
0.0263
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
2.7¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 0.02pp · ES₉₅ 0.03pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift -0.000pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.05pp · unique ratio 0.01✓ n = 735
VaR 95%
0.02pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
0.03pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
8.8pp
peak 2.9¢ → trough 2.6¢
Median step
0.05pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
2.7%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
37.037
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+3604
$100 wins $3604
FractionalUK
36.04 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$3603.70
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 2.7%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.179 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.179 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
5.21 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.04 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
36429073930879020116923875064172713477942612831380011088788381539214662324808
NO token ID
23327681208971800710794902669546333417299326862292646876295731459473603774528
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 16:56:47 UTC
Snapshot age
14ms
History points
25 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-14 16:56:47 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
56f6bf59e22cf4ffe5c36e16ce3e49bc0d5fadf1ac4c8b95a31a37aded9abef0 · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany94.0¢HL PREDSpain89.5¢HL PREDUruguay66.9¢POLYMARKETWill Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?21¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$63,935.5HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,660.75HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$60.05

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Netherlands vs. Japan - More Markets

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
0.027000
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
1481.5bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.920
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.302
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-fifwc-nld-jpn-2026-06-14-spread-away-2pt5/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.0403424941.40bp0.05000010FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.21712170415.04bp0.93000045FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.710057252984.04bp0.95000046FILLED
SELL$1.00K0.0072717307.08bp0.00100019PARTIAL
SELL$10.00K0.0072717307.08bp0.00100019PARTIAL
SELL$100.00K0.0072717307.08bp0.00100019PARTIAL

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 735 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75M
Realized vol (annualised)
675.02%
σ per bar = 0.005098
Mean return (annualised)
-12913.54%
μ per bar = -0.000074
Sharpe (rf=0)
-19.13
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
8.77%
peak 0.03 → trough 0.03 over 231 bars

/api/asset/pm-fifwc-nld-jpn-2026-06-14-spread-away-2pt5/risk · same metrics, JSON