POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · KHARG ISLAND NO LONGER UNDER IRANIAN CONTROL BY...?

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?

YES · live
0.4¢
NO · live
99.6¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · kharg-island-no-longer-under-iranian-control-by-june-30-561-854-897 · fresh · feed 0s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
13.11%
max drawdown
50.00%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
23.48%
RMS drawdown
pain index
14.93%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
50.00%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.00
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.00
upside/downside
roll spread
11.3 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
1045
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-kharg-island-no-longer-under-iranian-control-by-june-30-561-854-897/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH87ms⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
0.4¢
NO · live
99.6¢
YES price · live 24h
n=24 · μ=0.0085 · σ=0.0014 · range [0.0045, 0.0105] · R²=0.125▼ FALLING -40.00%σ EXTREME 16.36%LAST 0.00450.01050.00900.00750.00600.0045μ = 0.0085max 0.0105min 0.0045dataMA(4)OLS R²=0.13μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
24 ticks · last 0.45¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 0.4%NO 99.6%NO99.6%99.55¢ · odds 1/1.00
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.042 / 1.00 bits (4%) · informative — one side favoured
YES
0.4%0.4¢222.22×▬ +0.00pp
NO
99.6%99.6¢1.00×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=23 · Σ=100 · μ=4.3 · σ=9.2 · CV=2.12BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=12010203040μ = 44050%h1h4h7h10h13h16h19h22#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 100bp moved · peak 40bp · n=23 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
87ms
▲YES mid
0.45¢ (0.45%)
▼NO mid
99.55¢ (99.55%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$409.7k
≋liquidity $
$480.7k
◳history points
24 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=24 · μ=0.0085 · σ=0.0014 · range [0.0045, 0.0105] · R²=0.125▼ FALLING -40.00%σ EXTREME 16.36%LAST 0.00450.01050.00900.00750.00600.0045μ = 0.0085max 0.0105min 0.0045dataMA(4)OLS R²=0.13μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
24 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 0.45¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.9917 · σ=0.0016 · range [0.9895, 0.9955] · R²=0.210▲ RISING +0.30%σ LOW 0.16%LAST 0.99550.99550.99400.99250.99100.9895μ = 0.9917max 0.9955min 0.9895dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.21μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 99.55¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=23 · 10 bins · μ=-0.0003 · σ=0.0009 · skew=-2.74 (left-skewed) · kurt=8.44 (leptokurtic (fat tails))16128401-0.38ppbin -0.38pp · n=1 · 6.3% peakbin -0.38pp · n=1 · 6.3% peak-0.33pp-0.28pp-0.23pp1-0.17ppbin -0.17pp · n=1 · 6.3% peakbin -0.17pp · n=1 · 6.3% peak-0.12pp-0.07pp16-0.02ppbin -0.02pp · n=16 · 100.0% peakbin -0.02pp · n=16 · 100.0% peak30.03ppbin 0.03pp · n=3 · 18.8% peakbin 0.03pp · n=3 · 18.8% peak20.08ppbin 0.08pp · n=2 · 12.5% peakbin 0.08pp · n=2 · 12.5% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=23
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=23 · skew=-2.71 · kurt=7.81 · near 6 / mid 15 / far 2 · OLS slope=0.78 intercept=-0.00LEPTOKURTIC — FAT TAILSTHIN UPPER TAILLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σΔ=-1.88σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=24LEPTOKURTIC · FAT TAILS (G₂=2.92)
μ MEAN0.85¢95% CI: [0.79¢, 0.90¢]
σ STD DEV0.14ppσ² = 0.019 · CV = 16.36%
med MEDIAN0.85¢Q₁ 0.85¢ · Q₃ 0.91¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.60pp · IQR 0.06pp (1.349σ→0.19pp)
min 0.45¢Q₁ 0.85¢med 0.85¢Q₃ 0.91¢max 1.05¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-1.775left-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂2.921leptokurtic · fat tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ median≈ equal · symmetric|μ−med| / σ = 0.02
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 2.99
range ↔ σwide tails (range > 4σ)range / σ = 4.33
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MARTINGALE · UNPREDICTABLE
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.095within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.046lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.779strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-1.773fails 5% test
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.779
H = 0.779STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.095k=2-0.046k=3+0.042k=4+0.097k=5+0.0150+1−1+0.42−0.42+ momentum (ρ > +0.42)− reversal (ρ < −0.42)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]MARGINAL @ 10% (|t|=1.77)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMARTINGALE · UNPREDICTABLEfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.65very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCEMARGINAL @ 10% (|t|=1.77)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID1708086
SLUGkharg-island-no-…-561-854-897
CATEGORYKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS NO (100¢)
PRIMARY · YES0.45¢implied prob 0.45% · decimal odds 222.22×
COUNTER · NO99.55¢implied prob 99.55% · decimal odds 1.00×
0.45¢
99.55¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYDEEP
24H VOLUME409.71k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY480.69k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS NO (100¢)|primary − counter| = 0.991 · entropy 0.042 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHDEEP100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 0.4%NO 99.6%YES p̂0.4%H = 0.042 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES222.22×(0¢)NO1.00×(100¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.042 bits (4% of max) · informative — one side strongly favoured
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§8 · Time decay & θ projection

Time decay & theta projection
⏱ URGENCY · LOWresolves 2026-06-30 23:55 UTC
10days
11hrs
46min
10.49 days·θ = 0.679 pp/day
YES →$1.00(P = 0.4%)
NO →$0.00(P = 99.6%)
current: $0.0045 · expected return per side: $1.00 on YES hit · $0.00 on NO hit
0%25%50%75%100%YES $1NO $0NOW+5.2dRESOLVESP projection · σ=0.14% · path funnel to settle at YES=1 or NO=0
Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 0.679 pp/day
now10.49d left
0.679 pp/day×1.00
−25%7.87d left
0.785 pp/day×1.15
−50%5.25d left
0.961 pp/day×1.41
−75%2.62d left
1.359 pp/day×2.00
−90%1.05d left
2.149 pp/day×3.16
θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=23 bars · best 0.10% · worst -0.40% · typical |Δ| 0.04%MILD BEARISH -0.30%BEST+0.10%2hWORST-0.40%22hTYPICAL |Δ|0.04%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-0.30%Σ signed ΔSTREAK▬ 0flat-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +0.03% · Σ +0.20%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.01% · Σ -0.05%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.06% · Σ -0.45%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -0.30%+0.30%-0.30%0.00% · 1h0.00% · 1h·1h0.10% · 2h0.10% · 2h0.10%2h★ BEST0.00% · 3h0.00% · 3h·3h0.00% · 4h0.00% · 4h·4h0.05% · 5h0.05% · 5h0.05%5h0.05% · 6h0.05% · 6h0.05%6h0.00% · 7h0.00% · 7h·7h0.00% · 8h0.00% · 8h·8h0.00% · 9h0.00% · 9h·9h0.00% · 10h0.00% · 10h·10h0.10% · 11h0.10% · 11h0.10%11h-0.20% · 12h-0.20% · 12h-0.20%12h0.00% · 13h0.00% · 13h·13h0.05% · 14h0.05% · 14h0.05%14h0.00% · 15h0.00% · 15h·15h0.00% · 16h0.00% · 16h·16h0.00% · 17h0.00% · 17h·17h-0.05% · 18h-0.05% · 18h-0.05%18h0.00% · 19h0.00% · 19h·19h0.00% · 20h0.00% · 20h·20h0.00% · 21h0.00% · 21h·21h-0.40% · 22h-0.40% · 22h-0.40%22h▼ WORST0.00% · 23h0.00% · 23h·23hTIME PATTERNAsia-led (+0.20%)RUNSup max 2 · down max 1BREADTH22% up · 13% down · 65% flat
5 up bars · 3 down · best 0.10% · worst -0.40% · typical |Δ| 0.043%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=24 barsLOSS · SHALLOW DD (-0.30%)FINAL-0.30%MAX DD-0.60%RECOVERYONGOING · 12 barsMAX RUN-UP+0.30%UNDERWATER12/24 (50%)STREAK▬ 0EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9970 · peak 1.0030 · range [0.9970, 1.0030]1.00300.9970break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0030UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -0.60% · shallow0%-0.60%▼ TROUGH -0.60%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 1 total#1 -0.60%bar 13-24 · 12 bars · ONGOINGDD SEVERITYshallow (max -0.60%)RECOVERYongoing · 12 barsTIME UNDER WATER50% of session · 12/24 bars
final equity 0.9970 (-0.30%) · max DD -0.60% · time-under-water 12/24 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 5 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +8 / −10 (42% positive) · μ=9.89 · σ=47.29MIXED EDGELAST -41.86 (-1.09σ vs μ)89.4944.750.00-44.75-89.49μ = 9.8962.7962.7989.4989.4968.3568.3568.3568.3568.3568.3541.8641.8641.8641.86-17.09-17.09-17.09-17.09-8.21-8.21-8.21-8.21-28.81-28.8141.8641.860.000.00-41.86-41.86-41.86-41.86-41.86-41.86-48.23-48.23-41.86-41.86v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -41.857 · range [-48.23, 89.49] · μ 9.887 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=6.2005 · σ=4.9507 · range [2.0928, 16.7428] · R²=0.160▲ RISING +300.00%σ EXTREME 79.84%LAST 16.742816.742813.08039.41785.75532.0928μ = 6.2005max 16.7428min 2.0928dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.16μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 16.74% · range [2.09%, 16.74%] · μ 6.20% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +4 / −14 (21% positive) · μ=-0.186 · σ=0.224MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.300 (-0.51σ vs μ)0.4870.2440.000-0.244-0.487μ = -0.186-0.487-0.487-0.157-0.1570.0330.0330.0330.0330.3670.367-0.050-0.050-0.050-0.050-0.383-0.383-0.467-0.467-0.406-0.406-0.415-0.4150.0160.016-0.300-0.3000.0000.000-0.300-0.300-0.300-0.300-0.300-0.300-0.066-0.066-0.300-0.300v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.300 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀***

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
130.7449
p-VALUE (log scale)
< 0.0001
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
0.6356
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.9841
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-0.6553
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.8499
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
-0.6179
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5366
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (4 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.3155
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1550
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=2

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-0.2554
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7984
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.947 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=11 bins · noise floor μ=1.03e-6 · top T=4.60h (20.8%) · top-3 cover 47.1%1 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEcumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)2.4e-61.8e-61.2e-65.9e-70.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 23.0 · power 6.93e-7 · 6.1% energyperiod 23.0 · power 6.93e-7 · 6.1% energyperiod 11.5 · power 1.19e-6 · 10.6% energyperiod 11.5 · power 1.19e-6 · 10.6% energyperiod 7.7 · power 5.97e-7 · 5.3% energyperiod 7.7 · power 5.97e-7 · 5.3% energyperiod 5.8 · power 7.12e-7 · 6.3% energyperiod 5.8 · power 7.12e-7 · 6.3% energyperiod 4.6 · power 2.36e-6 · 20.8% energyperiod 4.6 · power 2.36e-6 · 20.8% energyperiod 3.8 · power 3.74e-7 · 3.3% energyperiod 3.8 · power 3.74e-7 · 3.3% energyperiod 3.3 · power 1.40e-6 · 12.4% energyperiod 3.3 · power 1.40e-6 · 12.4% energyperiod 2.9 · power 3.16e-7 · 2.8% energyperiod 2.9 · power 3.16e-7 · 2.8% energyperiod 2.6 · power 1.27e-6 · 11.2% energyperiod 2.6 · power 1.27e-6 · 11.2% energyperiod 2.3 · power 8.29e-7 · 7.3% energyperiod 2.3 · power 8.29e-7 · 7.3% energyperiod 2.1 · power 1.57e-6 · 13.9% energyperiod 2.1 · power 1.57e-6 · 13.9% energy50% by T=3.8h#1 dominantT=4.60h#2T=2.09h#3T=3.29hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 4.60h (freq 0.217) · concentrates 20.8% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 1.130e-5

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 1752616 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 10.5 d · σ/bar 0.007pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 0.11ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0045 · n = 5000✓ n = 5000
μ per bar
-0.000pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.007pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
0.03pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move10d
0.11pp
σ × √251.7791863888889
Terminal variancebinary
0.0045
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
0.4¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 0.01pp · ES₉₅ 0.01pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift -0.000pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.10pp · unique ratio 0.00✓ n = 5000
VaR 95%
0.01pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
0.01pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
50.0pp
peak 0.9¢ → trough 0.4¢
Median step
0.10pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
0.4%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
222.222
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+22122
$100 wins $22122
FractionalUK
221.22 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$22122.22
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 0.4%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.042 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.042 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
7.80 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.01 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
29245464513969532033634287470900755719499302279516205593200700547528308197658
NO token ID
84203195130140530447122876239051822841225116149034054273108408507932786055868
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-20 12:08:14 UTC
Snapshot age
87ms
History points
24 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-20 12:08:14 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
dceebae122fbd9e1d392af43f46c94e6a3a911ecfa553108216b2d41b4fc22d9 · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDSpain88.5¢HL PREDEcuador86.5¢HL PREDBelgium67.7¢POLYMARKETWill USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?3¢POLYMARKET Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?5¢POLYMARKETWill Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$63,746HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$71.3HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,729.2

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
0.004500
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
2222.2bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.248
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.427
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-kharg-island-no-longer-under-iranian-control-by-june-30-561-854-897/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.0052621693.71bp0.0070002FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.02201038910.60bp0.10000041FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.166225359389.74bp0.900000105FILLED
SELL$1.00K0.0026984003.35bp0.0020003FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.0021305265.74bp0.0010004PARTIAL
SELL$100.00K0.0021305265.74bp0.0010004PARTIAL

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75M
Realized vol (annualised)
1286.84%
σ per bar = 0.009720
Mean return (annualised)
-22297.34%
μ per bar = -0.000127
Sharpe (rf=0)
-17.33
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
50.00%
peak 0.01 → trough 0.00 over 834 bars

/api/asset/pm-kharg-island-no-longer-under-iranian-control-by-june-30-561-854-897/risk · same metrics, JSON