POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · SPORTS

LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 3 Winner

YES · live
0.1¢
NO · live
100.0¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · lol-red-los-2026-06-14-game3 · fresh · feed 0s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
0.00%
max drawdown
0.00%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
0.00%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.00%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
0.00%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
—
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.00
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
579
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-lol-red-los-2026-06-14-game3/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH4ms⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
0.1¢
NO · live
100.0¢
YES price · live 24h
n=23 · μ=0.4290 · σ=0.2314 · range [0.0005, 0.5550] · R²=0.546▼ FALLING -99.91%σ EXTREME 53.94%LAST 0.00050.55500.41640.27770.13910.0005μ = 0.4290max 0.5550min 0.0005dataMA(4)OLS R²=0.55μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
23 ticks · last 0.05¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 0.1%NO 100.0%NO100.0%99.95¢ · odds 1/1.00
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.006 / 1.00 bits (1%) · informative — one side favoured
YES
0.1%0.1¢2000.00×▬ +0.00pp
NO
100.0%100.0¢1.00×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=22 · Σ=6,545 · μ=297.5 · σ=1060.7 · CV=3.57BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=1801,2492,4983,7464,995μ = 2984,99550%h1h4h7h10h13h16h19h22#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 6545bp moved · peak 4995bp · n=22 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
4ms
▲YES mid
0.05¢ (0.05%)
▼NO mid
99.95¢ (99.95%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$29.3k
≋liquidity $
$84.2k
◳history points
23 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=23 · μ=0.4290 · σ=0.2314 · range [0.0005, 0.5550] · R²=0.546▼ FALLING -99.91%σ EXTREME 53.94%LAST 0.00050.55500.41640.27770.13910.0005μ = 0.4290max 0.5550min 0.0005dataMA(4)OLS R²=0.55μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
23 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 0.05¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=23 · μ=0.5710 · σ=0.2314 · range [0.4450, 0.9995] · R²=0.546▲ RISING +124.61%σ EXTREME 40.53%LAST 0.99950.99950.86090.72230.58360.4450μ = 0.5710max 0.9995min 0.4450dataMA(4)OLS R²=0.55μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
23 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 99.95¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=22 · 10 bins · μ=-0.0139 · σ=0.1013 · skew=-4.21 (left-skewed) · kurt=16.13 (leptokurtic (fat tails))191410501-47.25ppbin -47.25pp · n=1 · 5.3% peakbin -47.25pp · n=1 · 5.3% peak-41.86pp-36.46pp-31.07pp-25.67pp-20.28pp-14.88pp-9.49pp2-4.09ppbin -4.09pp · n=2 · 10.5% peakbin -4.09pp · n=2 · 10.5% peak191.30ppbin 1.30pp · n=19 · 100.0% peakbin 1.30pp · n=19 · 100.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=22
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=22 · skew=-4.19 · kurt=16.06 · near 6 / mid 9 / far 7 · OLS slope=0.57 intercept=0.00LEPTOKURTIC — FAT TAILSTHIN UPPER TAILLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σΔ=-2.52σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=23STRONGLY LEFT-SKEWED (G₁=-1.27)
μ MEAN42.90¢95% CI: [33.45¢, 52.36¢]
σ STD DEV23.14ppσ² = 535.456 · CV = 53.94%
med MEDIAN55.50¢Q₁ 50.25¢ · Q₃ 55.50¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 55.45pp · IQR 5.25pp (1.349σ→31.22pp)
min 0.05¢Q₁ 50.25¢med 55.50¢Q₃ 55.50¢max 55.50¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-1.269left-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.383mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ < med · left-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.54
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 5.95
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 2.40
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: INDETERMINATE · weak signal at n=22
ρ(1) AUTOCORR+0.017within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.136lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.556persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-5.023significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]persistent · H = 0.556
H = 0.556PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1+0.017k=2-0.136k=3+0.037k=4-0.067k=5-0.0200+1−1+0.43−0.43+ momentum (ρ > +0.43)− reversal (ρ < −0.43)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=5.02)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONINDETERMINATE · weak signal at n=22from Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.13low · ~ unpredictable|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=5.02)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID2537489
SLUGlol-red-los-2026-06-14-game3
CATEGORYSports
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS NO (100¢)
PRIMARY · YES0.05¢implied prob 0.05% · decimal odds 2000.00×
COUNTER · NO99.95¢implied prob 99.95% · decimal odds 1.00×
0.05¢
99.95¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYACTIVE
24H VOLUME29.30k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY84.24k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS NO (100¢)|primary − counter| = 0.999 · entropy 0.006 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHACTIVE100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 0.1%NO 100.0%YES p̂0.1%H = 0.006 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES2000.00×(0¢)NO1.00×(100¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.006 bits (1% of max) · informative — one side strongly favoured
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=22 bars · best 4.00% · worst -49.95% · typical |Δ| 2.98%BEARISH SESSION -55.45%BEST+4.00%16hWORST-49.95%18hTYPICAL |Δ|2.98%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-55.45%Σ signed ΔSTREAK▬ 0flat-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +0.00% · Σ +0.00%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.63% · Σ -5.00%US · 16-24 UTCμ -7.21% · Σ -50.45%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -55.45%+0.00%-55.45%0.00% · 1h0.00% · 1h·1h0.00% · 2h0.00% · 2h·2h0.00% · 3h0.00% · 3h·3h0.00% · 4h0.00% · 4h·4h0.00% · 5h0.00% · 5h·5h-0.50% · 6h-0.50% · 6h-0.50%6h0.50% · 7h0.50% · 7h0.50%7h0.00% · 8h0.00% · 8h·8h0.00% · 9h0.00% · 9h·9h0.00% · 10h0.00% · 10h·10h-0.50% · 11h-0.50% · 11h-0.50%11h0.50% · 12h0.50% · 12h0.50%12h0.00% · 13h0.00% · 13h·13h0.00% · 14h0.00% · 14h·14h-5.00% · 15h-5.00% · 15h-5.00%15h4.00% · 16h4.00% · 16h4.00%16h★ BEST-4.50% · 17h-4.50% · 17h-4.50%17h-49.95% · 18h-49.95% · 18h-49.95%18h▼ WORST0.00% · 19h0.00% · 19h·19h0.00% · 20h0.00% · 20h·20h0.00% · 21h0.00% · 21h·21h0.00% · 22h0.00% · 22h·22hTIME PATTERNAsia-led (+0.00%)RUNSup max 1 · down max 2BREADTH14% up · 23% down · 64% flat
3 up bars · 5 down · best 4.00% · worst -49.95% · typical |Δ| 2.975%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=23 barsSEVERE DRAWDOWN -52.78%FINAL-52.78%MAX DD-52.78%RECOVERYONGOING · 17 barsMAX RUN-UP+0.00%UNDERWATER17/23 (74%)STREAK▬ 0EQUITY CURVE · end 0.4722 · peak 1.0000 · range [0.4722, 1.0000]1.00000.4722break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0000UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -52.78% · severe0%-52.78%▼ TROUGH -52.78%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 1 total#1 -52.78%bar 7-23 · 17 bars · ONGOINGDD SEVERITYsevere (max -52.78%)RECOVERYongoing · 17 barsTIME UNDER WATER74% of session · 17/23 bars
final equity 0.4722 (-52.78%) · max DD -52.78% · time-under-water 17/23 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 5 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=18 · +0 / −9 (0% positive) · μ=-18.80 · σ=21.68UNPROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST -41.86 (-1.06σ vs μ)47.1223.560.00-23.56-47.12μ = -18.800.000.00-41.86-41.860.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00-41.34-41.34-2.92-2.92-27.71-27.71-47.12-47.12-47.12-47.12-42.00-42.00-46.49-46.49-41.86-41.86v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -41.857 · range [-47.12, 0.00] · μ -18.801 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=18 · μ=639.8000 · σ=920.6670 · range [0.0000, 2104.4344] · R²=0.678▬ FLATσ EXTREME 143.90%LAST 2090.75212104.43441578.32581052.2172526.10860.0000μ = 639.8000max 2104.4344min 0.0000dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.68μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 2090.75% · range [0.00%, 2104.43%] · μ 639.80% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=18 · +1 / −15 (6% positive) · μ=-0.309 · σ=0.240MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.050 (+1.08σ vs μ)0.7300.3650.000-0.365-0.730μ = -0.3090.0000.000-0.050-0.050-0.500-0.500-0.500-0.500-0.500-0.500-0.500-0.5000.0000.000-0.500-0.500-0.500-0.500-0.500-0.500-0.037-0.037-0.498-0.498-0.730-0.7300.0010.001-0.255-0.255-0.220-0.220-0.228-0.228-0.050-0.050v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.050 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
2 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence2 reject·4 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀***

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
468.7590
p-VALUE (log scale)
< 0.0001
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
0.6783
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.9819
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-0.3046
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.9183
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
1.8537
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0638
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (7 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.5624
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0276
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=2

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
0.3022
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7625
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 1.064 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=11 bins · noise floor μ=1.13e-2 · top T=3.14h (11.6%) · top-3 cover 33.6%WHITE NOISE · no dominant cyclecumulative energy ↗ (0 bins above 2× noise)1.4e-21.1e-27.2e-33.6e-30.0e+0μ noise floorperiod 22.0 · power 1.33e-2 · 10.7% energyperiod 22.0 · power 1.33e-2 · 10.7% energyperiod 11.0 · power 1.21e-2 · 9.8% energyperiod 11.0 · power 1.21e-2 · 9.8% energyperiod 7.3 · power 1.12e-2 · 9.1% energyperiod 7.3 · power 1.12e-2 · 9.1% energyperiod 5.5 · power 1.09e-2 · 8.8% energyperiod 5.5 · power 1.09e-2 · 8.8% energyperiod 4.4 · power 1.26e-2 · 10.2% energyperiod 4.4 · power 1.26e-2 · 10.2% energyperiod 3.7 · power 1.40e-2 · 11.3% energyperiod 3.7 · power 1.40e-2 · 11.3% energyperiod 3.1 · power 1.43e-2 · 11.6% energyperiod 3.1 · power 1.43e-2 · 11.6% energyperiod 2.8 · power 1.19e-2 · 9.6% energyperiod 2.8 · power 1.19e-2 · 9.6% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.05e-2 · 8.5% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.05e-2 · 8.5% energyperiod 2.2 · power 6.98e-3 · 5.6% energyperiod 2.2 · power 6.98e-3 · 5.6% energyperiod 2.0 · power 6.04e-3 · 4.9% energyperiod 2.0 · power 6.04e-3 · 4.9% energy50% by T=3.7h#1 dominantT=3.14h#2T=3.67h#3T=22.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 3.14h (freq 0.318) · concentrates 11.6% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 1.239e-1

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (579 bars · effective 1753200 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 0.3 d · σ/bar 0.000pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 0.00ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0005 · n = 579✓ n = 579
μ per bar
+0.000pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.000pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
0.00pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move0d
0.00pp
σ × √6
Terminal variancebinary
0.0005
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
0.1¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 0.00pp · ES₉₅ 0.00pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift +0.000pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.00pp · unique ratio 0.00✓ n = 579
VaR 95%
0.00pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
0.00pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
0.0pp
peak 0.1¢ → trough 0.1¢
Median step
0.00pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
0.1%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
2000.000
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+199900
$100 wins $199900
FractionalUK
1999.00 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$199900.00
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 0.1%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.006 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.006 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
10.97 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.00 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
112666592746097228732734265324941597993820764461388629521783842237329122633943
NO token ID
64924795841369625845559393063211165360857030477089991188777225827762271895235
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 22:46:22 UTC
Snapshot age
4ms
History points
23 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-14 22:46:22 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
5a27b26c53fd977aec6e8ce57a3512a9f18113ca56d3424d492f449a931ece75 · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Sports

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
—
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
—
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-1.000
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-1.000
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-lol-red-los-2026-06-14-game3/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K————ERR
BUY$10.00K————ERR
BUY$100.00K————ERR
SELL$1.00K————ERR
SELL$10.00K————ERR
SELL$100.00K————ERR

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 579 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75M
Realized vol (annualised)
0.00%
σ per bar = 0.000000
Mean return (annualised)
0.00%
μ per bar = 0.000000
Sharpe (rf=0)
0.00
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
0.00%
peak 0.00 → trough 0.00 over 0 bars

/api/asset/pm-lol-red-los-2026-06-14-game3/risk · same metrics, JSON