POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · NETANYAHU OUT BY...?

Netanyahu out by end of 2026?

YES · live

53.0¢

NO · live

47.0¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · netanyahu-out-before-2027-684-719-226-657 · fresh · feed 1s old

24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —

realized vol (ann.)

71.71%

max drawdown

0.94%

sharpe

—

ulcer index

0.91%

RMS drawdown

pain index

0.87%

mean drawdown

mod. VaR 95%

0.00%

Cornish-Fisher

martin ratio

—

ret / ulcer

CDaR 95%

0.94%

cond. drawdown

gain/pain

2.50

Σgain / Σ|loss|

sterling

—

ret / CDaR

omega (θ=0)

2.50

upside/downside

roll spread

0.6 bps

implied (price-only)

bars used

938

store

spread

—

24h Δ

—

flow lean

—

carry

flat

signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%

Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-netanyahu-out-before-2027-684-719-226-657/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →

LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH693ms⏱--:--:-- UTCNEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30

▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·

YES · live

53.0¢

NO · live

47.0¢

YES price · live 24h

24 ticks · last 53.50¢

YES / NO split · live

Σ 100.00% · fair

Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)

H(p) entropy = 0.997 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)

YES

53.0%53.0¢1.89×▬ +0.00pp

47.0%47.0¢2.13×▬ +0.00pp

Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp

Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live

Σ 800bp moved · peak 300bp · n=23 ticks

Live numerics · pulse on poll

LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0

⏱snapshot age

693ms

▲YES mid

53.00¢ (53.00%)

▼NO mid

47.00¢ (47.00%)

ΣΣ sides

100.00%

⚖arb gap

0.000pp

$24h vol $

$17.9k

≋liquidity $

$60.8k

◳history points

24 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid

24 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 53.50¢

NO price · CLOB mid

25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 47.00¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments

n=23

Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)

reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics

SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=24LEPTOKURTIC · FAT TAILS (G₂=3.01)

μ MEAN54.58¢95% CI: [53.99¢, 55.17¢]

σ STD DEV1.47ppσ² = 2.167 · CV = 2.70%

med MEDIAN54.50¢Q₁ 54.50¢ · Q₃ 54.75¢

FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 7.00pp · IQR 0.25pp (1.349σ→1.99pp)

SKEWNESS · G₁1.196right-skewed

−3−10+1+3

EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂3.013leptokurtic · fat tails

−30+2+4+6

μ ↔ median≈ equal · symmetric|μ−med| / σ = 0.06

σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 7.94

range ↔ σwide tails (range > 4σ)range / σ = 4.76

μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics

TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: INDETERMINATE · weak signal at n=23

ρ(1) AUTOCORR+0.131within white-noise band

ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.064lag-2 not significant

H · HURST EXPONENT0.879strongly persistent

OLS TREND · t-STAT-6.488significant @ α=0.05

HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.879

H = 0.879STRONGLY PERSISTENT

0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending

AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags

OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=6.49)

−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject

REGIME CLASSIFICATIONINDETERMINATE · weak signal at n=23from Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis

PREDICTABILITY · score 0.89very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic

TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=6.49)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58

ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity

MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%

MARKET ID567688

SLUGnetanyahu-out-before-2027-684-719-226-657

CATEGORYNetanyahu out by...?

TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS YES (53¢)

PRIMARY · YES53.00¢implied prob 53.00% · decimal odds 1.89×

COUNTER · NO47.00¢implied prob 47.00% · decimal odds 2.13×

53.00¢

47.00¢

Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%

0%50%100% · target110%

Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp

24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYACTIVE

24H VOLUME17.88k USD 24h

LIQUIDITY60.81k USD

MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient

PRICING SKEWFAVOURS YES (53¢)|primary − counter| = 0.060 · entropy 0.997 bits

LIQUIDITY DEPTHACTIVE100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin

Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage

FAIR MARKET · no edge

Probability scale (YES)

0%25%50%
fair75%100%

Implied decimal odds

YES1.89×(53¢)NO2.13×(47¢)

Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%

K* full

0.00%

½K half

0.00%

¼K quarter

0.00%

Entropy H(p̂) = 0.997 bits (100% of max) · maximum uncertainty (~50/50)

0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)

Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding

K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§8 · Time decay & θ projection

Time decay & theta projection

⏱ URGENCY · DISTANTresolves 2026-12-31 00:00 UTC

193days

11hrs

07min

YES →$1.00(P = 53.0%)

NO →$0.00(P = 47.0%)

current: $0.5300 · expected return per side: $0.47 on YES hit · $0.53 on NO hit

Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 7.211 pp/day

now193.46d left

7.211 pp/day×1.00

−25%145.10d left

8.327 pp/day×1.15

−50%96.73d left

10.198 pp/day×1.41

−75%48.37d left

14.422 pp/day×2.00

−90%19.35d left

22.804 pp/day×3.16

θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down

1 up bars · 4 down · best 1.00% · worst -3.00% · typical |Δ| 0.348%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough

final equity 0.9410 (-5.90%) · max DD -6.83% · time-under-water 23/24 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 5 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative

latest -17.088 · range [-68.35, 0.00] · μ -25.143 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window

Rolling annualised volatility (%)

latest 102.53% · range [0.00%, 122.03%] · μ 40.95% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)

Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)

latest -0.008 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance

3 of 5 REJECT · mixed evidence3 reject·2 pass·1 n/a·α = 0.05

𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀***

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC

55.1518

p-VALUE (log scale)

< 0.0001

10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC

2.1881

p-VALUE (log scale)

0.8242

10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

REJECT H₀***

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC

-4.8307

p-VALUE (log scale)

0.0002

10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

N/An/a

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC

—

p-VALUE (log scale)

—

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC

0.7310

p-VALUE (log scale)

0.0107

10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1

Variance ratio q=2

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC

-0.7140

p-VALUE (log scale)

0.4752

10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1

Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n

dominant period ≈ 2.56h (freq 0.391) · concentrates 22.3% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 7.217e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (982 bars · effective 1752616 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon

Horizon 193.5 d · σ/bar 0.575pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 39.20ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.2488 · n = 982✓ n = 982

μ per bar

-0.013pp

average Δp · drift

σ per bar

0.575pp

one-bar volatility · logit-free

Per-day movedaily

2.82pp

σ × √24

Per-horizon move193d

39.20pp

σ × √4643.125778333333

Terminal variancebinary

0.2488

p(1−p) at resolution

Current pricep

53.5¢

latest snapshot

Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.

Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown

VaR₉₅ 0.96pp · ES₉₅ 1.20pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift -0.013pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.50pp · unique ratio 0.02✓ n = 982

VaR 95%

0.96pp

1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp

ES 95%

1.20pp

mean of the tail

Max drawdown

32.5pp

peak 77.0¢ → trough 52.0¢

Median step

0.50pp

price bucket granularity

Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.

Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in

Implied probabilityP

53.0%

= price

Decimal oddsEU

1.887

total return per $1

AmericanUS

-113

risk $113 to win $100

FractionalUK

0.89 / 1

profit per $1 risked

Profit per $100stake

+$88.68

clean dollar framing

underdog (+)favorite (-)your price

Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information

Market entropyH(p)

0.997 bit

max 1.0 at p = 0.5

Your entropyH(q)

0.997 bit

Δ +0.000 bit vs market

Surprise · YES−log₂ p

0.92 bit

self-information

Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)

1.09 bit

self-information

Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot): gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history): clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID: 114694726451307654528948558967898493662917070661203465131156925998487819889437
NO token ID: 66255671088804707681511323064315150986307471908131081808279119719218775249892
Snapshot fetched: 2026-06-20 12:52:26 UTC
Snapshot age: 693ms
History points: 24 CLOB mids
Page rendered: 2026-06-20 12:52:27 UTC
Storage policy: no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation: ac14062c616534a204c6446d61ce675c677bc128d4a15f23be6978efae8ef3ff · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence: CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDSpain88.5¢HL PREDEcuador86.3¢HL PREDFrance79.4¢POLYMARKETWill USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?3¢POLYMARKETWill Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKET Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?6¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$63,523 HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$70.64 HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,724.3

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Netanyahu out by...?

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES

Depth within 1bp

bid $0 · ask $0

Depth within 5bp

bid $0 · ask $0

Depth within 10bp

bid $0 · ask $0

Depth within 50bp

bid $0 · ask $0

Mid price

0.530000

(best bid + best ask) / 2

Spread

377.4bp

(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid

Imbalance (whole book)

+0.429

bid-heavy

Imbalance (top-5)

-0.094

ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-netanyahu-out-before-2027-684-719-226-657/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

Side	Notional	Avg fill	Slippage	Worst fill	Levels	Status
BUY	$1.00K	0.547073	322.12bp	0.550000	2	FILLED
BUY	$10.00K	0.584352	1025.51bp	0.630000	10	FILLED
BUY	$100.00K	0.827987	5622.40bp	0.940000	39	FILLED
SELL	$1.00K	0.520000	188.68bp	0.520000	1	FILLED
SELL	$10.00K	0.341675	3553.29bp	0.230000	28	FILLED
SELL	$100.00K	0.047736	9099.32bp	0.010000	50	PARTIAL

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 982 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75M

Realized vol (annualised)

1200.41%

σ per bar = 0.009068

Mean return (annualised)

-38861.32%

μ per bar = -0.000222

Sharpe (rf=0)

-32.37

annualised; risk-free assumed zero

Max drawdown

32.47%

peak 0.77 → trough 0.52 over 40 bars

/api/asset/pm-netanyahu-out-before-2027-684-719-226-657/risk · same metrics, JSON