POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · US AND IRAN SIGN AN AGREEMENT BY...?

US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026?

YES · live
68.0¢
NO · live
32.0¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · us-and-iran-sign-an-agreement-by-june-30-2026-20260611221049853 · fresh · feed 0s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -4.90%
realized vol (ann.)
1086.99%
max drawdown
35.40%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
14.93%
RMS drawdown
pain index
11.45%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
32.96%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.79
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.79
upside/downside
roll spread
1.8 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-4.90%
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 25%
  • 24h change -4.90%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-us-and-iran-sign-an-agreement-by-june-30-2026-20260611221049853/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH15ms⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
68.0¢
NO · live
32.0¢
YES price · live 24h
n=25 · μ=0.7288 · σ=0.0666 · range [0.5300, 0.8550] · R²=0.276▼ FALLING -10.53%σ HIGH 9.14%LAST 0.68000.85500.77370.69250.61130.5300μ = 0.7288max 0.8550min 0.5300dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.28μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 ticks · last 68.00¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 68.0%NO 32.0%YES68.0%68.00¢ · odds 1/1.47
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.904 / 1.00 bits (90%) · high uncertainty
YES
68.0%68.0¢1.47×▬ +0.00pp
NO
32.0%32.0¢3.13×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=24 · Σ=11,100 · μ=462.5 · σ=573.9 · CV=1.24BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=1906131,2251,8382,450μ = 4632,45050%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 11100bp moved · peak 2450bp · n=24 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
15ms
▲YES mid
68.00¢ (68.00%)
▼NO mid
32.00¢ (32.00%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$39.9k
≋liquidity $
$33.1k
◳history points
25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.7288 · σ=0.0666 · range [0.5300, 0.8550] · R²=0.276▼ FALLING -10.53%σ HIGH 9.14%LAST 0.68000.85500.77370.69250.61130.5300μ = 0.7288max 0.8550min 0.5300dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.28μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 68.00¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.2712 · σ=0.0666 · range [0.1450, 0.4700] · R²=0.276▲ RISING +33.33%σ EXTREME 24.57%LAST 0.32000.47000.38870.30750.22630.1450μ = 0.2712max 0.4700min 0.1450dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.28μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 32.00¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=24 · 10 bins · μ=0.0023 · σ=0.0709 · skew=-0.98 (left-skewed) · kurt=2.64 (leptokurtic (fat tails))1085301-22.43ppbin -22.43pp · n=1 · 10.0% peakbin -22.43pp · n=1 · 10.0% peak-18.27pp-14.13pp1-9.98ppbin -9.98pp · n=1 · 10.0% peakbin -9.98pp · n=1 · 10.0% peak3-5.83ppbin -5.83pp · n=3 · 30.0% peakbin -5.83pp · n=3 · 30.0% peak5-1.68ppbin -1.68pp · n=5 · 50.0% peakbin -1.68pp · n=5 · 50.0% peak102.47ppbin 2.47pp · n=10 · 100.0% peakbin 2.47pp · n=10 · 100.0% peak26.62ppbin 6.62pp · n=2 · 20.0% peakbin 6.62pp · n=2 · 20.0% peak110.77ppbin 10.77pp · n=1 · 10.0% peakbin 10.77pp · n=1 · 10.0% peak114.92ppbin 14.92pp · n=1 · 10.0% peakbin 14.92pp · n=1 · 10.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-0.95 · kurt=3.74 · near 11 / mid 12 / far 1 · OLS slope=0.95 intercept=-0.00LEPTOKURTIC — FAT TAILSUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25LEFT-SKEWED (G₁=-0.90)
μ MEAN72.88¢95% CI: [70.27¢, 75.49¢]
σ STD DEV6.66ppσ² = 44.402 · CV = 9.14%
med MEDIAN72.50¢Q₁ 70.50¢ · Q₃ 77.50¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 32.50pp · IQR 7.00pp (1.349σ→8.99pp)
min 53.00¢Q₁ 70.50¢med 72.50¢Q₃ 77.50¢max 85.50¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.899left-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂1.298leptokurtic · fat tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ median≈ equal · symmetric|μ−med| / σ = 0.06
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 1.28
range ↔ σwide tails (range > 4σ)range / σ = 4.88
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.51 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.510negative · reversal
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.168lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.988strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-2.959significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.988
H = 0.988STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..51 SIGNIFICANT LAG · k=1
k=1 ★-0.510k=2+0.168k=3-0.151k=4+0.137k=5-0.1480+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=2.96)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.51 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=2.96)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID2510939
SLUGus-and-iran-sign…611221049853
CATEGORYUS and Iran sign an agreement by...?
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS YES (68¢)
PRIMARY · YES68.00¢implied prob 68.00% · decimal odds 1.47×
COUNTER · NO32.00¢implied prob 32.00% · decimal odds 3.13×
68.00¢
32.00¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYACTIVE
24H VOLUME39.93k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY33.07k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS YES (68¢)|primary − counter| = 0.360 · entropy 0.904 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHACTIVE100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 68.0%NO 32.0%YES p̂68.0%H = 0.904 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES1.47×(68¢)NO3.13×(32¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.904 bits (90% of max) · high uncertainty
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§8 · Time decay & θ projection

Time decay & theta projection
⏱ URGENCY · DISTANTresolves 2026-07-01 03:59 UTC
16days
12hrs
21min
16.52 days·θ = 32.644 pp/day
YES →$1.00(P = 68.0%)
NO →$0.00(P = 32.0%)
current: $0.6800 · expected return per side: $0.32 on YES hit · $0.68 on NO hit
0%25%50%75%100%YES $1NO $0NOW+8.3dRESOLVESP projection · σ=6.66% · path funnel to settle at YES=1 or NO=0
Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 32.644 pp/day
now16.52d left
32.644 pp/day×1.00
−25%12.39d left
37.694 pp/day×1.15
−50%8.26d left
46.166 pp/day×1.41
−75%4.13d left
65.288 pp/day×2.00
−90%1.65d left
103.230 pp/day×3.16
θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 17.00% · worst -24.50% · typical |Δ| 4.63%MILD BEARISH -8.00%BEST+17.00%20hWORST-24.50%19hTYPICAL |Δ|4.63%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-8.00%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↗ 1up-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.21% · Σ -1.50%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.13% · Σ +1.00%US · 16-24 UTCμ -1.25% · Σ -10.00%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -8.00%+9.50%-23.00%9.50% · 1h9.50% · 1h9.50%1h-7.00% · 2h-7.00% · 2h-7.00%2h0.50% · 3h0.50% · 3h0.50%3h-7.00% · 4h-7.00% · 4h-7.00%4h-1.50% · 5h-1.50% · 5h-1.50%5h2.00% · 6h2.00% · 6h2.00%6h2.00% · 7h2.00% · 7h2.00%7h-3.00% · 8h-3.00% · 8h-3.00%8h0.00% · 9h0.00% · 9h·9h0.50% · 10h0.50% · 10h0.50%10h0.50% · 11h0.50% · 11h0.50%11h1.00% · 12h1.00% · 12h1.00%12h5.00% · 13h5.00% · 13h5.00%13h1.50% · 14h1.50% · 14h1.50%14h-4.50% · 15h-4.50% · 15h-4.50%15h1.00% · 16h1.00% · 16h1.00%16h3.00% · 17h3.00% · 17h3.00%17h-2.00% · 18h-2.00% · 18h-2.00%18h-24.50% · 19h-24.50% · 19h-24.50%19h▼ WORST17.00% · 20h17.00% · 20h17.00%20h★ BEST-8.50% · 21h-8.50% · 21h-8.50%21h5.50% · 22h5.50% · 22h5.50%22h-1.50% · 23h-1.50% · 23h-1.50%23h2.50% · 24h2.50% · 24h2.50%24hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+1.00%)RUNSup max 5 · down max 2BREADTH58% up · 38% down · 4% flat
14 up bars · 9 down · best 17.00% · worst -24.50% · typical |Δ| 4.625%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsSEVERE DRAWDOWN -13.78%FINAL-13.78%MAX DD-30.95%RECOVERYONGOING · 23 barsMAX RUN-UP+9.50%UNDERWATER23/25 (92%)STREAK↗ 1EQUITY CURVE · end 0.8622 · peak 1.0950 · range [0.7561, 1.0950]1.09500.7561break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0950UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -30.95% · severe0%-30.95%▼ TROUGH -30.95%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 1 total#1 -30.95%bar 3-25 · 23 bars · ONGOINGDD SEVERITYsevere (max -30.95%)RECOVERYongoing · 23 barsTIME UNDER WATER92% of session · 23/25 bars
final equity 0.8622 (-13.78%) · max DD -30.95% · time-under-water 23/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +8 / −10 (42% positive) · μ=0.06 · σ=28.81MIXED EDGELAST -10.56 (-0.37σ vs μ)72.5336.270.00-36.27-72.53μ = 0.06-8.79-8.79-40.82-40.82-31.43-31.43-34.09-34.090.000.0017.0017.009.219.2124.3524.3572.5372.5320.5020.5023.0523.0534.4234.4218.1918.19-38.70-38.70-11.58-11.58-15.90-15.90-10.53-10.53-15.72-15.72-10.56-10.56v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -10.557 · range [-40.82, 72.53] · μ 0.059 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=588.0852 · σ=470.0529 · range [158.4677, 1316.8026] · R²=0.566▲ RISING +126.11%σ EXTREME 79.93%LAST 1313.80551316.80261027.2188737.6351448.0514158.4677μ = 588.0852max 1316.8026min 158.4677dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.57μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 1313.81% · range [158.47%, 1316.80%] · μ 588.09% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +5 / −14 (26% positive) · μ=-0.212 · σ=0.259MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.612 (-1.54σ vs μ)0.6180.3090.000-0.309-0.618μ = -0.212-0.390-0.390-0.112-0.112-0.076-0.0760.0560.056-0.256-0.256-0.101-0.101-0.345-0.3450.1210.1210.0790.0790.0160.016-0.023-0.023-0.012-0.012-0.134-0.1340.0110.011-0.458-0.458-0.568-0.568-0.602-0.602-0.618-0.618-0.612-0.612v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.612 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
2 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence2 reject·4 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀***

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
28.6270
p-VALUE (log scale)
< 0.0001
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
9.8335
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0792
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-3.0533
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0314
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonestationary · mean-reverting (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
1.3668
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1717
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (15 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.4092
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0732
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.8543
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0637
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.436 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=5.46e-3 · top T=2.18h (23.5%) · top-3 cover 57.3%2 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)1.5e-21.2e-27.7e-33.8e-30.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 1.80e-4 · 0.3% energyperiod 24.0 · power 1.80e-4 · 0.3% energyperiod 12.0 · power 3.70e-3 · 5.6% energyperiod 12.0 · power 3.70e-3 · 5.6% energyperiod 8.0 · power 2.51e-3 · 3.8% energyperiod 8.0 · power 2.51e-3 · 3.8% energyperiod 6.0 · power 2.67e-4 · 0.4% energyperiod 6.0 · power 2.67e-4 · 0.4% energyperiod 4.8 · power 3.49e-3 · 5.3% energyperiod 4.8 · power 3.49e-3 · 5.3% energyperiod 4.0 · power 5.61e-3 · 8.6% energyperiod 4.0 · power 5.61e-3 · 8.6% energyperiod 3.4 · power 7.33e-3 · 11.2% energyperiod 3.4 · power 7.33e-3 · 11.2% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.28e-3 · 2.0% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.28e-3 · 2.0% energyperiod 2.7 · power 6.68e-3 · 10.2% energyperiod 2.7 · power 6.68e-3 · 10.2% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.48e-2 · 22.6% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.48e-2 · 22.6% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.54e-2 · 23.5% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.54e-2 · 23.5% energyperiod 2.0 · power 4.27e-3 · 6.5% energyperiod 2.0 · power 4.27e-3 · 6.5% energy50% by T=2.4h#1 dominantT=2.18h#2T=2.40h#3T=3.43hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.18h (freq 0.458) · concentrates 23.5% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 6.555e-2

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (3710 bars · effective 1752810 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 16.5 d · σ/bar 0.614pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 12.21ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.2176 · n = 3710✓ n = 3710
μ per bar
-0.001pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.614pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
3.01pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move17d
12.21pp
σ × √396.3623202777778
Terminal variancebinary
0.2176
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
68.0¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 1.01pp · ES₉₅ 1.27pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift -0.001pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.50pp · unique ratio 0.01✓ n = 3710
VaR 95%
1.01pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
1.27pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
35.4pp
peak 80.5¢ → trough 52.0¢
Median step
0.50pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
68.0%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
1.471
total return per $1
AmericanUS
-213
risk $213 to win $100
FractionalUK
0.47 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$47.06
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 68.0%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.904 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.904 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
0.56 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
1.64 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
106100485971803737437773616379438968784471057016595892635748235294745441447742
NO token ID
47954820117484777336042329081349953993960125773997586425709668502770283080497
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 15:37:15 UTC
Snapshot age
15ms
History points
25 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-14 15:37:15 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
bb0cfc833c577805245e219d02bd324b8df670ae292d95ee3796dc3c8d8defbf · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany94.3¢HL PREDSpain89.7¢HL PREDUruguay66.7¢POLYMARKETWill Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?1¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$64,034HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,662.3HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$60.59

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in US and Iran sign an agreement by...?

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
0.680000
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
294.1bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.127
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.079
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-us-and-iran-sign-an-agreement-by-june-30-2026-20260611221049853/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.725501669.13bp0.7500006FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.8178162026.70bp0.85000013FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.9043133298.72bp0.95000023FILLED
SELL$1.00K0.646448493.41bp0.6100007FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.3547924782.46bp0.23000040FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.1139068324.91bp0.01000059PARTIAL

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 3,710 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75M
Realized vol (annualised)
1265.62%
σ per bar = 0.009560
Mean return (annualised)
-2371.88%
μ per bar = -0.000014
Sharpe (rf=0)
-1.87
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
35.40%
peak 0.81 → trough 0.52 over 1090 bars

/api/asset/pm-us-and-iran-sign-an-agreement-by-june-30-2026-20260611221049853/risk · same metrics, JSON