POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · US-IRAN NUCLEAR DEAL BEFORE 2027?

US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?

YES · live
81.5¢
NO · live
18.5¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · us-iran-nuclear-deal-before-2027 · fresh · feed 0s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
145.06%
max drawdown
5.81%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
2.18%
RMS drawdown
pain index
1.46%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
5.65%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
1.12
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.12
upside/downside
roll spread
0.1 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-us-iran-nuclear-deal-before-2027/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH15ms⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
81.5¢
NO · live
18.5¢
YES price · live 24h
n=25 · μ=0.8114 · σ=0.0144 · range [0.7800, 0.8500] · R²=0.334▲ RISING +5.13%σ NORMAL 1.77%LAST 0.82000.85000.83250.81500.79750.7800μ = 0.8114max 0.8500min 0.7800dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.33μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 ticks · last 82.00¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 81.5%NO 18.5%YES81.5%81.50¢ · odds 1/1.23
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.691 / 1.00 bits (69%) · moderate uncertainty
YES
81.5%81.5¢1.23×▬ +0.00pp
NO
18.5%18.5¢5.41×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=24 · Σ=2,200 · μ=91.7 · σ=81.6 · CV=0.89BURSTYcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=11063125188250μ = 9225050%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 2200bp moved · peak 250bp · n=24 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
15ms
▲YES mid
81.50¢ (81.50%)
▼NO mid
18.50¢ (18.50%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$49.2k
≋liquidity $
$137.0k
◳history points
25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.8114 · σ=0.0144 · range [0.7800, 0.8500] · R²=0.334▲ RISING +5.13%σ NORMAL 1.77%LAST 0.82000.85000.83250.81500.79750.7800μ = 0.8114max 0.8500min 0.7800dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.33μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 82.00¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.1886 · σ=0.0144 · range [0.1500, 0.2200] · R²=0.334▼ FALLING -18.18%σ HIGH 7.63%LAST 0.18000.22000.20250.18500.16750.1500μ = 0.1886max 0.2200min 0.1500dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.33μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 18.00¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=24 · 10 bins · μ=0.0031 · σ=0.0109 · skew=-0.54 (left-skewed) · kurt=0.51 (mesokurtic)653202-2.25ppbin -2.25pp · n=2 · 33.3% peakbin -2.25pp · n=2 · 33.3% peak-1.75pp-1.25pp1-0.75ppbin -0.75pp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin -0.75pp · n=1 · 16.7% peak6-0.25ppbin -0.25pp · n=6 · 100.0% peakbin -0.25pp · n=6 · 100.0% peak50.25ppbin 0.25pp · n=5 · 83.3% peakbin 0.25pp · n=5 · 83.3% peak30.75ppbin 0.75pp · n=3 · 50.0% peakbin 0.75pp · n=3 · 50.0% peak51.25ppbin 1.25pp · n=5 · 83.3% peakbin 1.25pp · n=5 · 83.3% peak1.75pp22.25ppbin 2.25pp · n=2 · 33.3% peakbin 2.25pp · n=2 · 33.3% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-0.32 · kurt=0.09 · near 21 / mid 3 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.00 intercept=-0.00MATCHES NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVEDUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25RIGHT-SKEWED (G₁=0.62)
μ MEAN81.14¢95% CI: [80.58¢, 81.70¢]
σ STD DEV1.44ppσ² = 2.073 · CV = 1.77%
med MEDIAN81.00¢Q₁ 80.50¢ · Q₃ 82.00¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 7.00pp · IQR 1.50pp (1.349σ→1.94pp)
min 78.00¢Q₁ 80.50¢med 81.00¢Q₃ 82.00¢max 85.00¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.615right-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂0.815mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ median≈ equal · symmetric|μ−med| / σ = 0.10
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 1.29
range ↔ σwide tails (range > 4σ)range / σ = 4.86
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit root
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.037within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.047lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.882strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT+3.397significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.882
H = 0.882STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.037k=2-0.047k=3-0.187k=4-0.276k=5+0.0010+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=3.40)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit rootfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.80very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=3.40)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID665325
SLUGus-iran-nuclear-deal-before-2027
CATEGORYUS-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS YES (82¢)
PRIMARY · YES81.50¢implied prob 81.50% · decimal odds 1.23×
COUNTER · NO18.50¢implied prob 18.50% · decimal odds 5.41×
81.50¢
18.50¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYACTIVE
24H VOLUME49.22k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY137.01k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS YES (82¢)|primary − counter| = 0.630 · entropy 0.691 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHACTIVE100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 81.5%NO 18.5%YES p̂81.5%H = 0.691 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES1.23×(82¢)NO5.41×(19¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.691 bits (69% of max) · moderate uncertainty
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§8 · Time decay & θ projection

Time decay & theta projection
⏱ URGENCY · DISTANTresolves 2026-12-31 00:00 UTC
199days
09hrs
54min
199.41 days·θ = 7.054 pp/day
YES →$1.00(P = 81.5%)
NO →$0.00(P = 18.5%)
current: $0.8150 · expected return per side: $0.19 on YES hit · $0.81 on NO hit
0%25%50%75%100%YES $1NO $0NOW+99.7dRESOLVESP projection · σ=1.44% · path funnel to settle at YES=1 or NO=0
Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 7.054 pp/day
now199.41d left
7.054 pp/day×1.00
−25%149.56d left
8.145 pp/day×1.15
−50%99.71d left
9.976 pp/day×1.41
−75%49.85d left
14.108 pp/day×2.00
−90%19.94d left
22.307 pp/day×3.16
θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 2.50% · worst -2.50% · typical |Δ| 0.92%MILD BULLISH +4.00%BEST+2.50%1hWORST-2.50%22hTYPICAL |Δ|0.92%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+4.00%Σ signed ΔSTREAK▬ 0flat-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +0.29% · Σ +2.00%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.13% · Σ +1.00%US · 16-24 UTCμ +0.12% · Σ +1.00%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +4.00%+7.00%0.00%2.50% · 1h2.50% · 1h2.50%1h★ BEST1.50% · 2h1.50% · 2h1.50%2h-1.00% · 3h-1.00% · 3h-1.00%3h1.50% · 4h1.50% · 4h1.50%4h-2.50% · 5h-2.50% · 5h-2.50%5h0.00% · 6h0.00% · 6h·6h0.00% · 7h0.00% · 7h·7h-0.50% · 8h-0.50% · 8h-0.50%8h0.50% · 9h0.50% · 9h0.50%9h1.00% · 10h1.00% · 10h1.00%10h-0.50% · 11h-0.50% · 11h-0.50%11h0.50% · 12h0.50% · 12h0.50%12h-0.50% · 13h-0.50% · 13h-0.50%13h1.00% · 14h1.00% · 14h1.00%14h-0.50% · 15h-0.50% · 15h-0.50%15h0.00% · 16h0.00% · 16h·16h-0.50% · 17h-0.50% · 17h-0.50%17h0.00% · 18h0.00% · 18h·18h1.50% · 19h1.50% · 19h1.50%19h2.00% · 20h2.00% · 20h2.00%20h1.00% · 21h1.00% · 21h1.00%21h-2.50% · 22h-2.50% · 22h-2.50%22h▼ WORST-0.50% · 23h-0.50% · 23h-0.50%23h0.00% · 24h0.00% · 24h·24hTIME PATTERNAsia-led (+2.00%)RUNSup max 3 · down max 2BREADTH42% up · 38% down · 21% flat
10 up bars · 9 down · best 2.50% · worst -2.50% · typical |Δ| 0.917%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsPROFITABLE +3.90%FINAL+3.90%MAX DD-2.99%RECOVERYONGOING · 3 barsMAX RUN-UP+7.10%UNDERWATER19/25 (76%)STREAK▬ 0EQUITY CURVE · end 1.0390 · peak 1.0710 · range [1.0000, 1.0710]1.07101.0000break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0710UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -2.99% · moderate0%-2.99%▼ TROUGH -2.99%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 3 total#1 -2.99%bar 23-25 · 3 bars · ONGOING#2 -2.99%bar 6-20 · 15 bars · recovered#3 -1.00%bar 4-4 · 1 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -2.99%)RECOVERYongoing · 3 barsTIME UNDER WATER76% of session · 19/25 bars
final equity 1.0390 (3.90%) · max DD -2.99% · time-under-water 19/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +12 / −5 (63% positive) · μ=11.91 · σ=22.91MIXED EDGELAST 14.31 (+0.10σ vs μ)63.4631.730.00-31.73-63.46μ = 11.9116.7616.76-5.10-5.10-29.55-29.55-11.74-11.74-19.27-19.2713.3413.3425.7625.7611.7411.7445.6745.6720.7220.720.000.000.000.00-13.34-13.3428.4828.4836.5036.5063.4663.4614.3114.3114.3114.3114.3114.31v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 14.306 · range [-29.55, 63.46] · μ 11.914 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=99.3849 · σ=41.2804 · range [54.7083, 174.2642] · R²=0.001▼ FALLING -12.16%σ EXTREME 41.54%LAST 153.0784174.2642144.3752114.486284.597354.7083μ = 99.3849max 174.2642min 54.7083dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.00μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 153.08% · range [54.71%, 174.26%] · μ 99.38% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +6 / −13 (32% positive) · μ=-0.244 · σ=0.411MEAN-REVERSIONLAST 0.276 (+1.27σ vs μ)0.7500.3750.000-0.375-0.750μ = -0.244-0.170-0.170-0.591-0.591-0.671-0.671-0.513-0.5130.0250.025-0.199-0.199-0.333-0.333-0.399-0.399-0.548-0.548-0.745-0.745-0.750-0.750-0.625-0.625-0.589-0.589-0.093-0.0930.4220.4220.5290.5290.0980.0980.2380.2380.2760.276v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 0.276 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
2 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence2 reject·4 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
0.6397
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7263
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
3.5092
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6245
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-2.9827
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0382
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonestationary · mean-reverting (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
0.7227
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4698
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (12 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.4857
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0449
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-0.6906
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4898
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.790 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=1.49e-4 · top T=6.00h (23.8%) · top-3 cover 52.9%1 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEcumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)4.3e-43.2e-42.1e-41.1e-40.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 3.14e-5 · 1.7% energyperiod 24.0 · power 3.14e-5 · 1.7% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.19e-5 · 0.7% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.19e-5 · 0.7% energyperiod 8.0 · power 2.76e-4 · 15.4% energyperiod 8.0 · power 2.76e-4 · 15.4% energyperiod 6.0 · power 4.26e-4 · 23.8% energyperiod 6.0 · power 4.26e-4 · 23.8% energyperiod 4.8 · power 2.09e-4 · 11.7% energyperiod 4.8 · power 2.09e-4 · 11.7% energyperiod 4.0 · power 3.54e-5 · 2.0% energyperiod 4.0 · power 3.54e-5 · 2.0% energyperiod 3.4 · power 6.04e-5 · 3.4% energyperiod 3.4 · power 6.04e-5 · 3.4% energyperiod 3.0 · power 4.48e-5 · 2.5% energyperiod 3.0 · power 4.48e-5 · 2.5% energyperiod 2.7 · power 2.03e-4 · 11.3% energyperiod 2.7 · power 2.03e-4 · 11.3% energyperiod 2.4 · power 2.46e-4 · 13.7% energyperiod 2.4 · power 2.46e-4 · 13.7% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.45e-4 · 8.1% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.45e-4 · 8.1% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.04e-4 · 5.8% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.04e-4 · 5.8% energy50% by T=4.8h#1 dominantT=6.00h#2T=8.00h#3T=2.40hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 6.00h (freq 0.167) · concentrates 23.8% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 1.794e-3

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (3401 bars · effective 1752810 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 199.4 d · σ/bar 0.088pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 6.08ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.1508 · n = 3401✓ n = 3401
μ per bar
+0.000pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.088pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
0.43pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move199d
6.08pp
σ × √4785.910527777778
Terminal variancebinary
0.1508
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
81.5¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 0.14pp · ES₉₅ 0.18pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift +0.000pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.50pp · unique ratio 0.00✓ n = 3401
VaR 95%
0.14pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
0.18pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
5.8pp
peak 86.0¢ → trough 81.0¢
Median step
0.50pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
81.5%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
1.227
total return per $1
AmericanUS
-441
risk $441 to win $100
FractionalUK
0.23 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$22.70
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 81.5%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.691 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.691 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
0.30 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
2.43 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
102936224134271070189104847090829839924697394514566827387181305960175107677216
NO token ID
45763018441764333771124945243746174684578244015331389396782339063349542289693
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 14:05:22 UTC
Snapshot age
15ms
History points
25 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-14 14:05:22 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
ec46956a72525070e8ccf428d63777482dd80968ae91ca2d8fcc5e4ef6d764ee · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany94.2¢HL PREDSpain90.3¢HL PREDUruguay66.7¢POLYMARKETWill Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?1¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$64,300HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,665.7HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$60.96

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
0.820000
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
243.9bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.988
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.390
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-us-iran-nuclear-deal-before-2027/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.835750192.08bp0.8400002FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.9189721206.97bp0.99000017FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.9522241612.49bp0.99000017PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.800801234.14bp0.8000002FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.7220481194.53bp0.52000024FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.0881808924.63bp0.01000066FILLED

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 3,401 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75M
Realized vol (annualised)
139.64%
σ per bar = 0.001055
Mean return (annualised)
957.67%
μ per bar = 0.000005
Sharpe (rf=0)
6.86
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
5.81%
peak 0.86 → trough 0.81 over 578 bars

/api/asset/pm-us-iran-nuclear-deal-before-2027/risk · same metrics, JSON