POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · US-IRAN NUCLEAR DEAL BY JULY 31?

US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31?

YES · live
68.0¢
NO · live
32.0¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · us-iran-nuclear-deal-by-july-31 · fresh · feed 0s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -1.45%
realized vol (ann.)
300.86%
max drawdown
22.44%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
9.76%
RMS drawdown
pain index
6.92%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
20.74%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.83
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.83
upside/downside
roll spread
0.5 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-1.45%
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 25%
  • 24h change -1.45%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-us-iran-nuclear-deal-by-july-31/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH37ms⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
68.0¢
NO · live
32.0¢
YES price · live 24h
n=25 · μ=0.7080 · σ=0.0353 · range [0.6250, 0.7900] · R²=0.292▼ FALLING -7.53%σ NORMAL 4.98%LAST 0.67500.79000.74880.70750.66630.6250μ = 0.7080max 0.7900min 0.6250dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.29μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 ticks · last 67.50¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 68.0%NO 32.0%YES68.0%68.00¢ · odds 1/1.47
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.904 / 1.00 bits (90%) · high uncertainty
YES
68.0%68.0¢1.47×▬ +0.00pp
NO
32.0%32.0¢3.13×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=24 · Σ=5,250 · μ=218.8 · σ=199.4 · CV=0.91BURSTYcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=110187375562750μ = 21975050%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 5250bp moved · peak 750bp · n=24 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
37ms
▲YES mid
68.00¢ (68.00%)
▼NO mid
32.00¢ (32.00%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$29.6k
≋liquidity $
$96.2k
◳history points
25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.7080 · σ=0.0353 · range [0.6250, 0.7900] · R²=0.292▼ FALLING -7.53%σ NORMAL 4.98%LAST 0.67500.79000.74880.70750.66630.6250μ = 0.7080max 0.7900min 0.6250dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.29μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 67.50¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.2920 · σ=0.0353 · range [0.2100, 0.3750] · R²=0.292▲ RISING +20.37%σ HIGH 12.08%LAST 0.32500.37500.33370.29250.25120.2100μ = 0.2920max 0.3750min 0.2100dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.29μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 32.50¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=24 · 10 bins · μ=-0.0019 · σ=0.0275 · skew=-0.27 (symmetric) · kurt=-0.01 (mesokurtic)864201-6.82ppbin -6.82pp · n=1 · 12.5% peakbin -6.82pp · n=1 · 12.5% peak-5.47pp2-4.12ppbin -4.12pp · n=2 · 25.0% peakbin -4.12pp · n=2 · 25.0% peak3-2.77ppbin -2.77pp · n=3 · 37.5% peakbin -2.77pp · n=3 · 37.5% peak3-1.42ppbin -1.42pp · n=3 · 37.5% peakbin -1.42pp · n=3 · 37.5% peak4-0.07ppbin -0.07pp · n=4 · 50.0% peakbin -0.07pp · n=4 · 50.0% peak81.28ppbin 1.28pp · n=8 · 100.0% peakbin 1.28pp · n=8 · 100.0% peak2.63pp23.98ppbin 3.98pp · n=2 · 25.0% peakbin 3.98pp · n=2 · 25.0% peak15.33ppbin 5.33pp · n=1 · 12.5% peakbin 5.33pp · n=1 · 12.5% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-0.26 · kurt=0.39 · near 18 / mid 6 / far 0 · OLS slope=0.99 intercept=-0.00MATCHES NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVEDUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25APPROXIMATELY NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVED
μ MEAN70.80¢95% CI: [69.42¢, 72.18¢]
σ STD DEV3.53ppσ² = 12.437 · CV = 4.98%
med MEDIAN70.50¢Q₁ 68.50¢ · Q₃ 72.50¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 16.50pp · IQR 4.00pp (1.349σ→4.76pp)
min 62.50¢Q₁ 68.50¢med 70.50¢Q₃ 72.50¢max 79.00¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.031approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.007mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ median≈ equal · symmetric|μ−med| / σ = 0.09
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 1.19
range ↔ σwide tails (range > 4σ)range / σ = 4.68
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit root
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.140within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.036lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT1.050strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-3.078significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 1.050
H = 1.050STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..51 SIGNIFICANT LAG · k=4
k=1-0.140k=2-0.036k=3-0.040k=4 ★-0.423k=5+0.0400+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=3.08)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit rootfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=3.08)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID2355359
SLUGus-iran-nuclear-deal-by-july-31
CATEGORYUS-Iran nuclear deal by July 31?
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS YES (68¢)
PRIMARY · YES68.00¢implied prob 68.00% · decimal odds 1.47×
COUNTER · NO32.00¢implied prob 32.00% · decimal odds 3.13×
68.00¢
32.00¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYACTIVE
24H VOLUME29.56k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY96.19k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS YES (68¢)|primary − counter| = 0.360 · entropy 0.904 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHACTIVE100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 68.0%NO 32.0%YES p̂68.0%H = 0.904 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES1.47×(68¢)NO3.13×(32¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.904 bits (90% of max) · high uncertainty
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§8 · Time decay & θ projection

Time decay & theta projection
⏱ URGENCY · DISTANTresolves 2026-07-31 00:00 UTC
46days
08hrs
35min
46.36 days·θ = 17.277 pp/day
YES →$1.00(P = 68.0%)
NO →$0.00(P = 32.0%)
current: $0.6800 · expected return per side: $0.32 on YES hit · $0.68 on NO hit
0%25%50%75%100%YES $1NO $0NOW+23.2dRESOLVESP projection · σ=3.53% · path funnel to settle at YES=1 or NO=0
Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 17.277 pp/day
now46.36d left
17.277 pp/day×1.00
−25%34.77d left
19.950 pp/day×1.15
−50%23.18d left
24.434 pp/day×1.41
−75%11.59d left
34.554 pp/day×2.00
−90%4.64d left
54.635 pp/day×3.16
θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 6.00% · worst -7.50% · typical |Δ| 2.19%MILD BEARISH -5.50%BEST+6.00%1hWORST-7.50%5hTYPICAL |Δ|2.19%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-5.50%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↗ 2up-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.64% · Σ -4.50%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.19% · Σ +1.50%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.44% · Σ -3.50%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -5.50%+6.00%-10.50%6.00% · 1h6.00% · 1h6.00%1h★ BEST-4.50% · 2h-4.50% · 2h-4.50%2h1.00% · 3h1.00% · 3h1.00%3h-1.50% · 4h-1.50% · 4h-1.50%4h-7.50% · 5h-7.50% · 5h-7.50%5h▼ WORST1.00% · 6h1.00% · 6h1.00%6h1.00% · 7h1.00% · 7h1.00%7h1.00% · 8h1.00% · 8h1.00%8h1.00% · 9h1.00% · 9h1.00%9h1.00% · 10h1.00% · 10h1.00%10h1.00% · 11h1.00% · 11h1.00%11h0.00% · 12h0.00% · 12h·12h-1.00% · 13h-1.00% · 13h-1.00%13h0.50% · 14h0.50% · 14h0.50%14h-2.00% · 15h-2.00% · 15h-2.00%15h0.50% · 16h0.50% · 16h0.50%16h0.00% · 17h0.00% · 17h·17h4.50% · 18h4.50% · 18h4.50%18h-2.50% · 19h-2.50% · 19h-2.50%19h-3.00% · 20h-3.00% · 20h-3.00%20h-2.50% · 21h-2.50% · 21h-2.50%21h-4.50% · 22h-4.50% · 22h-4.50%22h4.00% · 23h4.00% · 23h4.00%23h1.00% · 24h1.00% · 24h1.00%24hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+1.50%)RUNSup max 6 · down max 4BREADTH54% up · 38% down · 8% flat
13 up bars · 9 down · best 6.00% · worst -7.50% · typical |Δ| 2.188%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsSEVERE DRAWDOWN -6.33%FINAL-6.33%MAX DD-15.88%RECOVERYONGOING · 23 barsMAX RUN-UP+6.00%UNDERWATER23/25 (92%)STREAK↗ 2EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9367 · peak 1.0600 · range [0.8917, 1.0600]1.06000.8917break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0600UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -15.88% · severe0%-15.88%▼ TROUGH -15.88%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 1 total#1 -15.88%bar 3-25 · 23 bars · ONGOINGDD SEVERITYsevere (max -15.88%)RECOVERYongoing · 23 barsTIME UNDER WATER92% of session · 23/25 bars
final equity 0.9367 (-6.33%) · max DD -15.88% · time-under-water 23/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +6 / −13 (32% positive) · μ=1086729459086665.50 · σ=4736943891127389.00UNPROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST -37.23 (-0.23σ vs μ)20647859722646620.0010323929861323310.000.00-10323929861323310.00-20647859722646620.00μ = 1086729459086665.50-18.15-18.15-46.01-46.01-22.83-22.83-22.83-22.83-11.24-11.2420647859722646620.0020647859722646620.00191.05191.0555.9355.9348.6848.68-6.50-6.50-13.86-13.86-31.73-31.7317.5417.546.286.28-14.02-14.02-16.44-16.44-38.95-38.95-16.08-16.08-37.23-37.23v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -37.230 · range [-46.01, 20647859722646620.00] · μ 1086729459086665.500 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=219.2410 · σ=127.6449 · range [0.0000, 442.3946] · R²=0.001▼ FALLING -33.52%σ EXTREME 58.22%LAST 294.1173442.3946331.7960221.1973110.59870.0000μ = 219.2410max 442.3946min 0.0000dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.00μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 294.12% · range [0.00%, 442.39%] · μ 219.24% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +6 / −13 (32% positive) · μ=-0.105 · σ=0.261MEAN-REVERSIONLAST 0.065 (+0.65σ vs μ)0.6780.3390.000-0.339-0.678μ = -0.105-0.372-0.372-0.261-0.261-0.039-0.0390.0400.040-0.033-0.033-0.235-0.235-0.033-0.0330.3570.3570.2840.284-0.065-0.065-0.465-0.465-0.678-0.678-0.091-0.091-0.447-0.447-0.100-0.1000.0740.0740.1670.167-0.156-0.1560.0650.065v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 0.065 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
ALL TESTS PASS · data behaves as nominal0 reject·6 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
0.9104
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6343
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
6.2515
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2818
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-2.1051
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2520
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
-0.2880
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7733
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (11 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.3493
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0990
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-0.9359
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3493
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.715 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=8.55e-4 · top T=8.00h (28.3%) · top-3 cover 63.4%2 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)2.9e-32.2e-31.5e-37.3e-40.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 8.98e-5 · 0.9% energyperiod 24.0 · power 8.98e-5 · 0.9% energyperiod 12.0 · power 4.10e-4 · 4.0% energyperiod 12.0 · power 4.10e-4 · 4.0% energyperiod 8.0 · power 2.90e-3 · 28.3% energyperiod 8.0 · power 2.90e-3 · 28.3% energyperiod 6.0 · power 9.70e-4 · 9.4% energyperiod 6.0 · power 9.70e-4 · 9.4% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.91e-4 · 1.9% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.91e-4 · 1.9% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.76e-4 · 1.7% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.76e-4 · 1.7% energyperiod 3.4 · power 9.53e-4 · 9.3% energyperiod 3.4 · power 9.53e-4 · 9.3% energyperiod 3.0 · power 4.95e-4 · 4.8% energyperiod 3.0 · power 4.95e-4 · 4.8% energyperiod 2.7 · power 4.43e-4 · 4.3% energyperiod 2.7 · power 4.43e-4 · 4.3% energyperiod 2.4 · power 2.28e-3 · 22.2% energyperiod 2.4 · power 2.28e-3 · 22.2% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.33e-3 · 12.9% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.33e-3 · 12.9% energyperiod 2.0 · power 2.60e-5 · 0.3% energyperiod 2.0 · power 2.60e-5 · 0.3% energy50% by T=3.4h#1 dominantT=8.00h#2T=2.40h#3T=2.18hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 8.00h (freq 0.125) · concentrates 28.3% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 1.026e-2

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (3640 bars · effective 1752810 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 46.4 d · σ/bar 0.184pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 6.15ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.2176 · n = 3640✓ n = 3640
μ per bar
-0.000pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.184pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
0.90pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move46d
6.15pp
σ × √1112.5997902777779
Terminal variancebinary
0.2176
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
68.0¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 0.30pp · ES₉₅ 0.38pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift -0.000pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.50pp · unique ratio 0.01✓ n = 3640
VaR 95%
0.30pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
0.38pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
22.4pp
peak 78.0¢ → trough 60.5¢
Median step
0.50pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
68.0%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
1.471
total return per $1
AmericanUS
-213
risk $213 to win $100
FractionalUK
0.47 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$47.06
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 68.0%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.904 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.904 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
0.56 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
1.64 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
18661832458154982918611035703593393214447064696342108857315332547417568688030
NO token ID
12495069376006225897015474831973542074034480560938100377112368586382779553107
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 15:24:00 UTC
Snapshot age
37ms
History points
25 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-14 15:24:00 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
bc965be7da23f663c33dc2199eab0f537ce5a2313f87f27fea9d6db640dd5640 · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany94.3¢HL PREDSpain89.3¢HL PREDUruguay66.7¢POLYMARKETWill Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?1¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$64,061.5HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,662.75HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$60.55

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31?

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
0.675000
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
444.4bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.799
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.386
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-us-iran-nuclear-deal-by-july-31/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.726645765.12bp0.7400005FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.7844881622.05bp0.84000014FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.8934803236.73bp0.95000025FILLED
SELL$1.00K0.647950400.74bp0.6400003FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.4386603501.34bp0.33000024FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.0316279531.45bp0.01000052PARTIAL

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 3,640 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75M
Realized vol (annualised)
349.74%
σ per bar = 0.002642
Mean return (annualised)
-703.19%
μ per bar = -0.000004
Sharpe (rf=0)
-2.01
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
22.44%
peak 0.78 → trough 0.60 over 616 bars

/api/asset/pm-us-iran-nuclear-deal-by-july-31/risk · same metrics, JSON