POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · SPORTS

Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs

YES · live
50.5¢
NO · live
49.5¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · val-lev1-th1-2026-06-14 · fresh · feed 13s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
97.04%
max drawdown
9.35%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
4.22%
RMS drawdown
pain index
3.53%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
8.28%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.40
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.40
upside/downside
roll spread
0.7 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
1675
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-val-lev1-th1-2026-06-14/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCWARMING12.8s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
50.5¢
NO · live
49.5¢
YES price · live 24h
n=25 · μ=0.5368 · σ=0.0260 · range [0.4850, 0.5800] · R²=0.847▼ FALLING -11.40%σ NORMAL 4.85%LAST 0.50500.58000.55620.53250.50880.4850μ = 0.5368max 0.5800min 0.4850dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.85μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 ticks · last 50.50¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 50.5%NO 49.5%YES50.5%50.50¢ · odds 1/1.98
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 1.000 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
YES
50.5%50.5¢1.98×▬ +0.00pp
NO
49.5%49.5¢2.02×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=24 · Σ=1,450 · μ=60.4 · σ=90.9 · CV=1.50BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=14075150225300μ = 6030050%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 1450bp moved · peak 300bp · n=24 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
12.8s
▲YES mid
50.50¢ (50.50%)
▼NO mid
49.50¢ (49.50%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$48.6k
≋liquidity $
$95.3k
◳history points
25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.5368 · σ=0.0260 · range [0.4850, 0.5800] · R²=0.847▼ FALLING -11.40%σ NORMAL 4.85%LAST 0.50500.58000.55620.53250.50880.4850μ = 0.5368max 0.5800min 0.4850dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.85μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 50.50¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.4632 · σ=0.0260 · range [0.4200, 0.5150] · R²=0.847▲ RISING +15.12%σ HIGH 5.62%LAST 0.49500.51500.49130.46750.44370.4200μ = 0.4632max 0.5150min 0.4200dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.85μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 49.50¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=24 · 10 bins · μ=-0.0004 · σ=0.0100 · skew=-1.33 (left-skewed) · kurt=2.13 (leptokurtic (fat tails))13107302-2.75ppbin -2.75pp · n=2 · 15.4% peakbin -2.75pp · n=2 · 15.4% peak-2.25pp-1.75pp-1.25pp4-0.75ppbin -0.75pp · n=4 · 30.8% peakbin -0.75pp · n=4 · 30.8% peak1-0.25ppbin -0.25pp · n=1 · 7.7% peakbin -0.25pp · n=1 · 7.7% peak130.25ppbin 0.25pp · n=13 · 100.0% peakbin 0.25pp · n=13 · 100.0% peak20.75ppbin 0.75pp · n=2 · 15.4% peakbin 0.75pp · n=2 · 15.4% peak11.25ppbin 1.25pp · n=1 · 7.7% peakbin 1.25pp · n=1 · 7.7% peak11.75ppbin 1.75pp · n=1 · 7.7% peakbin 1.75pp · n=1 · 7.7% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-1.01 · kurt=2.05 · near 8 / mid 15 / far 1 · OLS slope=0.92 intercept=-0.00LEPTOKURTIC — FAT TAILSUPPER TAIL NORMALMILDLY HEAVY LOWER-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25APPROXIMATELY NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVED
μ MEAN53.68¢95% CI: [52.66¢, 54.70¢]
σ STD DEV2.60ppσ² = 6.768 · CV = 4.85%
med MEDIAN53.50¢Q₁ 52.50¢ · Q₃ 54.50¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 9.50pp · IQR 2.00pp (1.349σ→3.51pp)
min 48.50¢Q₁ 52.50¢med 53.50¢Q₃ 54.50¢max 58.00¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.127approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.781mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ median≈ equal · symmetric|μ−med| / σ = 0.07
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 1.75
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.65
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit root
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.124within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.142lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.983strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-11.298significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.983
H = 0.983STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.124k=2-0.142k=3+0.010k=4-0.139k=5-0.0990+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=11.30)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit rootfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=11.30)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID2522392
SLUGval-lev1-th1-2026-06-14
CATEGORYSports
TWO-SIDED PRICINGBALANCED · ~50/50
PRIMARY · YES50.50¢implied prob 50.50% · decimal odds 1.98×
COUNTER · NO49.50¢implied prob 49.50% · decimal odds 2.02×
50.50¢
49.50¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYACTIVE
24H VOLUME48.56k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY95.35k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWBALANCED · ~50/50|primary − counter| = 0.010 · entropy 1.000 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHACTIVE100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 50.5%NO 49.5%YES p̂50.5%H = 1.000 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES1.98×(51¢)NO2.02×(50¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 1.000 bits (100% of max) · maximum uncertainty (~50/50)
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§8 · Time decay & θ projection

Time decay & theta projection
⏱ URGENCY · HIGHresolves 2026-06-14 20:00 UTC
0days
08hrs
56min
8.9 hours·θ = 12.745 pp/day
YES →$1.00(P = 50.5%)
NO →$0.00(P = 49.5%)
current: $0.5050 · expected return per side: $0.49 on YES hit · $0.51 on NO hit
0%25%50%75%100%YES $1NO $0NOW+4.5hRESOLVESP projection · σ=2.60% · path funnel to settle at YES=1 or NO=0
Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 12.745 pp/day
now8.95h left
12.745 pp/day×1.00
−25%6.71h left
14.717 pp/day×1.15
−50%4.47h left
18.024 pp/day×1.41
−75%2.24h left
25.490 pp/day×2.00
−90%0.89h left
40.304 pp/day×3.16
θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 2.00% · worst -3.00% · typical |Δ| 0.60%BEARISH SESSION -6.50%BEST+2.00%21hWORST-3.00%20hTYPICAL |Δ|0.60%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-6.50%Σ signed ΔSTREAK▬ 0flat-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.36% · Σ -2.50%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.13% · Σ -1.00%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.38% · Σ -3.00%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -6.50%+1.00%-8.50%0.50% · 1h0.50% · 1h0.50%1h0.50% · 2h0.50% · 2h0.50%2h0.00% · 3h0.00% · 3h·3h0.00% · 4h0.00% · 4h·4h-3.00% · 5h-3.00% · 5h-3.00%5h-0.50% · 6h-0.50% · 6h-0.50%6h0.00% · 7h0.00% · 7h·7h-1.00% · 8h-1.00% · 8h-1.00%8h0.00% · 9h0.00% · 9h·9h0.00% · 10h0.00% · 10h·10h0.00% · 11h0.00% · 11h·11h1.00% · 12h1.00% · 12h1.00%12h0.00% · 13h0.00% · 13h·13h-1.00% · 14h-1.00% · 14h-1.00%14h0.00% · 15h0.00% · 15h·15h-1.00% · 16h-1.00% · 16h-1.00%16h0.00% · 17h0.00% · 17h·17h0.00% · 18h0.00% · 18h·18h-1.00% · 19h-1.00% · 19h-1.00%19h-3.00% · 20h-3.00% · 20h-3.00%20h▼ WORST2.00% · 21h2.00% · 21h2.00%21h★ BEST0.00% · 22h0.00% · 22h·22h0.00% · 23h0.00% · 23h·23h0.00% · 24h0.00% · 24h·24hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+-1.00%)RUNSup max 2 · down max 2BREADTH17% up · 29% down · 54% flat
4 up bars · 7 down · best 2.00% · worst -3.00% · typical |Δ| 0.604%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsSEVERE DRAWDOWN -6.42%FINAL-6.42%MAX DD-9.17%RECOVERYONGOING · 20 barsMAX RUN-UP+1.00%UNDERWATER20/25 (80%)STREAK▬ 0EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9358 · peak 1.0100 · range [0.9174, 1.0100]1.01000.9174break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0100UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -9.17% · significant0%-9.17%▼ TROUGH -9.17%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 1 total#1 -9.17%bar 6-25 · 20 bars · ONGOINGDD SEVERITYsignificant (max -9.17%)RECOVERYongoing · 20 barsTIME UNDER WATER80% of session · 20/25 bars
final equity 0.9358 (-6.42%) · max DD -9.17% · time-under-water 20/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +0 / −15 (0% positive) · μ=-33.78 · σ=26.46UNPROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST -19.10 (+0.55σ vs μ)85.4442.720.00-42.72-85.44μ = -33.78-29.55-29.55-37.00-37.00-59.86-59.86-59.86-59.86-59.86-59.86-55.93-55.930.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00-20.72-20.72-20.72-20.72-60.42-60.42-85.44-85.44-66.72-66.72-28.48-28.48-19.10-19.10-19.10-19.10-19.10-19.10v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -19.105 · range [-85.44, 0.00] · μ -33.783 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=95.2276 · σ=40.3149 · range [39.1535, 153.7921] · R²=0.080▲ RISING +23.74%σ EXTREME 42.34%LAST 152.8398153.7921125.132496.472867.813239.1535μ = 95.2276max 153.7921min 39.1535dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.08μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 152.84% · range [39.15%, 153.79%] · μ 95.23% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +2 / −13 (11% positive) · μ=-0.175 · σ=0.202MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.258 (-0.41σ vs μ)0.5830.2920.000-0.292-0.583μ = -0.1750.0610.061-0.062-0.062-0.245-0.245-0.355-0.355-0.027-0.027-0.357-0.3570.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000-0.010-0.010-0.127-0.127-0.583-0.583-0.500-0.5000.0930.093-0.389-0.389-0.283-0.283-0.283-0.283-0.258-0.258v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.258 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
2 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence2 reject·4 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀**

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
12.7494
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0017
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
1.9109
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.8622
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.0294
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7410
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
-0.7559
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4497
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (5 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀**

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.8149
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0066
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-0.7956
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4263
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.758 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=1.10e-4 · top T=3.00h (23.9%) · top-3 cover 62.6%BROADBAND · 3 CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (3 bins above 2× noise)3.2e-42.4e-41.6e-47.9e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 2.39e-6 · 0.2% energyperiod 24.0 · power 2.39e-6 · 0.2% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.45e-4 · 18.5% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.45e-4 · 18.5% energyperiod 8.0 · power 3.61e-5 · 2.7% energyperiod 8.0 · power 3.61e-5 · 2.7% energyperiod 6.0 · power 4.17e-6 · 0.3% energyperiod 6.0 · power 4.17e-6 · 0.3% energyperiod 4.8 · power 2.67e-4 · 20.2% energyperiod 4.8 · power 2.67e-4 · 20.2% energyperiod 4.0 · power 3.85e-5 · 2.9% energyperiod 4.0 · power 3.85e-5 · 2.9% energyperiod 3.4 · power 8.09e-5 · 6.1% energyperiod 3.4 · power 8.09e-5 · 6.1% energyperiod 3.0 · power 3.17e-4 · 23.9% energyperiod 3.0 · power 3.17e-4 · 23.9% energyperiod 2.7 · power 2.43e-5 · 1.8% energyperiod 2.7 · power 2.43e-5 · 1.8% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.01e-4 · 7.6% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.01e-4 · 7.6% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.58e-4 · 11.9% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.58e-4 · 11.9% energyperiod 2.0 · power 5.10e-5 · 3.9% energyperiod 2.0 · power 5.10e-5 · 3.9% energy50% by T=3.4h#1 dominantT=3.00h#2T=4.80h#3T=12.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 3.00h (freq 0.333) · concentrates 23.9% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 1.325e-3

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (1675 bars · effective 1752810 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 0.4 d · σ/bar 0.073pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 0.22ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.2500 · n = 1675✓ n = 1675
μ per bar
-0.002pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.073pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
0.36pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move0d
0.22pp
σ × √8.949073333333333
Terminal variancebinary
0.2500
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
50.5¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 0.12pp · ES₉₅ 0.15pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift -0.002pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 1.00pp · unique ratio 0.00✓ n = 1675
VaR 95%
0.12pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
0.15pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
9.3pp
peak 53.5¢ → trough 48.5¢
Median step
1.00pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
50.5%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
1.980
total return per $1
AmericanUS
-102
risk $102 to win $100
FractionalUK
0.98 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$98.02
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 50.5%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
1.000 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
1.000 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
0.99 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
1.01 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
88595685859953683802450406868426628857415111838790053060622993697195728250560
NO token ID
54131937052222023773396919476158234281850263930494172804245669506144496618956
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 11:02:50 UTC
Snapshot age
12.8s
History points
25 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-14 11:03:03 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
7629c85fd92ae03bc15e107d244347515f742202c520a1f493b2010a05b194ce · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany94.4¢HL PREDSpain90.3¢HL PREDUruguay66.6¢POLYMARKETWill Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?23¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$64,469HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,672.3HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$60.92

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Sports

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
0.505000
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
198.0bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.356
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.816
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-val-lev1-th1-2026-06-14/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.51000099.01bp0.5100001FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.51000099.01bp0.5100001FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.5954881791.83bp0.96000027FILLED
SELL$1.00K0.493366230.37bp0.4900002FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.4121091839.43bp0.31000017FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.1512027005.89bp0.01000035PARTIAL

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 1,675 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75M
Realized vol (annualised)
192.20%
σ per bar = 0.001452
Mean return (annualised)
-6042.52%
μ per bar = -0.000034
Sharpe (rf=0)
-31.44
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
9.35%
peak 0.54 → trough 0.48 over 1056 bars

/api/asset/pm-val-lev1-th1-2026-06-14/risk · same metrics, JSON